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Leading Off:
• MA-Sen: In case you missed it, Public Policy Polling released a stunning new poll yesterday showing Democratic newcomer Elizabeth Warren leading Sen. Scott Brown by two points — the first such poll to show Brown trailing. Click the link for the full results and our complete analysis at Daily Kos Elections.
Senate:
• CT-Sen: Watch out, Linda McMahon and Chris Shays! Retiring Vernon Mayor Jason McCoy says he'll seek the GOP nomination, too! (Previously he said he was exploring a bid.) No, I don't get this either.
• MA-Sen: Ah, nothing like a scary poll to make the Mass. GOP start to sh*t itself. What a bunch of d-bags:
The Massachusetts Republican Party is asking Harvard University to reconsider paying Elizabeth Warren a salary while the law school professor runs for US Senate.
“By restoring her to the faculty, even though she has now formed a federal election committee and is actively campaigning, the university is establishing a bad precedent for academic appointments,” Nate Little, executive director of the GOP, wrote in a letter to Harvard President Drew Gilpin Faust.
“Of equal concern is that Harvard runs the risk of jeopardizing its tax-exempt status. As a non-profit charitable institution, Harvard is prohibited from taking a position on behalf of or in opposition to a candidate. Your payment of a salary to Professor Warren causes reasonable-minded people to conclude that Harvard is supportive of her candidacy,” Little wrote.
I liked this deadpan zinger from the Globe's Glen Johnson, though:
During the special election campaign, Brown continued to accept his taxpayer financed salary as a state senator. He also has not expressed any plans to give up his federal salary while running for reelection.
• NE-Sen: A poll conducted by Lake Research for environmental group Bold Nebraska on a proposed new oil pipeline also included some GOP primary numbers. They find AG Jon Bruning at 29, Treasurer Don Stenberg at 12, state Sen. Deb Fischer at 8 and businessman Pat Flynn at 1, with the remainder undecided. Sort of telling that they didn't release general election numbers, too, no?
• NV-Sen: A survey taken for the Retail Association of Nevada by Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies has GOP Sen. Dean Heller up 48-42 over Rep. Shelley Berkley. Jon Ralston says that this two-day poll surveyed 500 likely voters — awfully early to be moving to an LV screen (and likely to favor the GOP, in my estimation).
• OH-Sen: Republican state Treasurer Josh Mandel must be the first married guy to ever run for Senate, because he's claiming that figuring out his wife's assets is the reason why he's 128 days late (and counting) in filing his required financial disclosure forms. More likely he's trying to figure out how to elide his spouse's considerable wealth — Ilana Shafran Mandel is a member of the prominent Ratner real estate developer clan, which has donated over $1 million to campaigns over the last decade.
• PA-Sen: The unwanted dwarves running in the GOP Senate primary are already beginning to tear each other down (not that they have far to go). Teabagging attorney Marc Scaringi is supposedly preparing to launch a radio ad that attacks wealthy businessman Steve Welch as a "liberal Arlen Specter Republican." Amusingly, Scaringi hasn't even aired the ad yet (and barely seems to have the scratch to do so), but I'm always willing to lend a hand when it comes to flinging cat fud.
• TN-Sen: Interesting. GOP Sen. Lamar Alexander is stepping down from his third-ranking post in the Republican caucus at the end of the year, saying that being a member of leadership is incompatible with the kind of deal-making he's more interested in pursuing. (At least, that's how I'm reading his remarks.) Lamar! did add that he plans to seek a third term in 2014, when he'll be 74.
• VA-Sen: Even though there are nominally contested primaries on both sides, and even though it seems very early to me, George Allen and Tim Kaine will meet for a debate in Richmond on Dec. 7. Organizers have come up with an amusing way to ensure no one else can join: "[E]ligible participants include declared candidates who average 15 percent or better in established and published non-candidate primary polls and have raised at least 20 percent as much money as their party's front runner by the end of October." Sorry, Jamie Radtke.
Gubernatorial:
• NC-Gov: Well, that was quick. Just a day after saying he might challenge Gov. Bev Perdue in the Democratic primary, state Rep. Bill Faison says he'll do no such thing. I wonder if he was a bit spooked by someone or something, because he tried to blame his earlier remarks on the fact that he was, of all things, distracted by an ongoing medical malpractice mediation. (Come again?) Meanwhile, on the GOP side, former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory's presumptively clear path to the nomination got even clearer, as state Sen. Pete Brunstetter said he wouldn't run.
• ND-Gov: Are North Dakota Republicans being careless about what they're wishing for? A GOP plan to redistrict the state Senate would pit Minority Leader Ryan Taylor against a fellow Democrat, which just might be the shove he needs to run for governor instead. Indeed, Taylor's been considering the race and indeed says that the new map might push him toward a gubernatorial bid. Payback would be tasty.
• WA-Gov (PDF): The newest public poll of the Washington gubernatorial race finds that AG Rob McKenna leads Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee by a 46-39 margin, which is one of the largest leads he's sported so far. (Polling in this race so far has been a 47-44 Inslee lead from SurveyUSA in June, a 40-38 McKenna lead from PPP in May, and a 48-41 McKenna lead from SurveyUSA in April.) While the poll shows McKenna leading because of his big edge with self-described indies (46-30), it also shows room to grow for Inslee, who represents 1/9 of the state and isn't as well known as McKenna; Inslee's favorables are 30/17, while McKenna is at 35/20. The poll is the first one we've seen from Strategies360, a Seattle-based political consulting firm that seems to be making a full-on move into public polling. (Strategies360 is described as nonpartisan, although its main public face, Ron Dotzauer, is a locally-well-known Democratic insider.) (David Jarman)
House:
• CA-41, WA-01, WI-02: I meant to mention this last week, but better late than never. The Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund announced endorsements of Democratic candidates in three House races: Mark Takano in CA-41, Marko Liias in WA-01, and Mark Pocan in WI-02, all of whom are gay. Denis Dison, a vice president of the Victory Fund, says that the endorsements come with a maximum PAC donation and activation of the group's donor network on behalf of these candidates. As an example of what Victory Fund backing can mean, Dison cited the organization's work on behalf of Houston Mayor Annise Parker in 2009, for whom they raised $400K (and contributed more via independent expenditures).
• CT-05: State House Speaker Chris Donovan has been doing well on the endorsement front lately. Yesterday, he announced the backing of former Rep. Jim Maloney, a fellow Democrat who held the 1990s version of 5th CD before losing to Republican Nancy Johnson in a redistricting mashup in 2002.
• IL-13: A strong (if expected) get for Democrats: Former state Rep. Jay Hoffman will formally announce his entry into the race for the new 13th District tomorrow (Wednesday). In response, Champaign County Board member Brendan McGinty said he wouldn't seek the Democratic nomination, calling Hoffman "the instant front-runner." Hoffman still faces physician David Gill and retired educator James Gray, while Greene County state's attorney Matt Goetten is still weighing the race. The winner of the Democratic nod will face Republican Rep. Tim Johnson in the general.
• MN-01: Republican state Rep. Steve Drazkowski says he has "no plans to run" against third-term Dem Rep. Tim Walz, but adds that he isn't entirely ruling out a bid. (It sounds like he might be awaiting the results of redistricting.) According to state GOP chair Tony Sutton, two other legislators are also looking at the race: state Sens. Mike Parry and Julie Rosen.
• OH-03, OH-06, OH-07, OH-16: The industrious Shira Toeplitz has a whole boatload of updates on the fluid Ohio House picture. First up, she reports that Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman will not run for the new open blue seat Republicans are proposing to center around his city (numbered the 3rd). However, former SoS and 2010 Dem Senate candidate Jennifer Brunner has gone from "a name that people are talking about" to actually "looking at it very seriously," and state Sen. Charleta Tavares is "very interested" and will decide "probably within the month."
Meanwhile, in OH-06, ex-Rep. Charlie Wilson looks like he's getting close to a bid. Wilson, a victim of last year's red storm, said last week that he was considering a rematch against GOPer Bill Johnson, but now he tells Shira that he's "right on the verge" of putting together a campaign staff. He may be trying to get ahead of fellow ex-Rep. John Boccieri, who also expressed an interest in the 6th CD but is also weighing a repeat battle with Jim Renacci, the guy who defeated him, in the new 16th, or a run against another freshman Republican, Bob Gibbs in the new 7th.
But this is also complicated by the fact that yet another Democrat defeated in 2010, Zack Space, is also thinking about a comeback. Gibbs is the guy who defeated Space, so that matchup would seem to be a natural fit, but according to Dem chair Chris Redfern, Space, like Boccieri, is looking at the 6th and 16th districts, too. Wilson vs. Johnson, Boccieri vs. Renacci, and Space vs. Gibbs would certainly seem to make the most sense, since those would all be rematches. But wait! There's still yet a further complication, which is that Rep. Betty Sutton, who would get de-districted by this map, is thinking about runs against either Gibbs or Renacci. So there isn't room for all four Democrats to take on a Republican, unless Space goes after Steve Stivers, who inherited a chunk of Space's old 18th CD. Got all that?
• PA-04: I don't exactly understand why this is news now, but Republican Keith Rothfus says he plans to seek a rematch against Dem Rep. Jason Altmire, and that he won't under any circumstances primary fellow GOPer Tim Murphy… which is exactly what he said back in May.
Other Races:
• IA-St. Sen.: At the link is a rundown of likely candidates for the vital special election in Iowa's newly-vacant 18th state Senate District, which will determine who controls the chamber. Former TV newscaster Liz Mathis is expected to run for the Democrats, while former US Attorney Matt Dummermuth looks like the frontrunner for the GOP nod. If you're thinking an ex-USA is a mighty high-level get for a state legislative race, read this about Dummermuth, who got appointed to the post without Senate confirmation amid great controversy during Karl Rove's infamous US Attorney coup. Anyhow, both nominees will be selected by party committees later this month. The election is on Nov. 8.
• LA-AG: The future is most definitely not Cao. A little over a week after qualifying to run against Dem-turned-Republican AG Buddy Caldwell, GOP ex-Rep. Joe Cao has dropped out of the race. That was fast! Anyhow, because Caldwell now has no opponent, he wins the race by acclamation — something he definitely would not have done had he stayed a Democrat. So it looks like that switch worked out well for him.
Grab Bag:
• Pennsylvania: Two more Republican congressmen are voicing skepticism about the proposed GOP plan to divide the state's electoral votes by congressional district: Tim Murphy and Glenn Thompson. Importantly, both men represent very red districts and wouldn't be directly impacted by the change, but they're both concerned about their colleagues who sit in swing seats. Indeed, Murphy specifically cited Nebraska Rep. Lee Terry's situation in NE-02, where he came close to losing his seat in 2008 because Barack Obama contested (and won) the Omaha area's lone electoral vote. With so many Republican reps refusing to get on board, this plan is looking increasingly troubled.
Redistricting Roundup:
• MD Redistricting: A few more substantiated rumors about the Dem map are floating around now, largely confirming what we'd heard previously — that Dems would go after MD-06 Rep. (and octogenarian) Roscoe Bartlett, instead of MD-01's certifiable winger, Andy Harris. What we get is a bifurcated Montgomery County, yielding two 62%+ Obama districts (PDF), one reaching into Western Maryland and the second up through Northern Frederick. That odd arm of MD-01 reaching across the bay to get the North Shore of Anne Arundel County is gone, meaning that that territory is now split between Steny Hoyer's MD-05 (which loses a few points in Dem %), and John Sarbanes' MD-03 (which gains more of Columbia in Howard County to offset). The red bastion of Carroll County gets neutralized in Elijah Cummings' AA-majority VAP MD-07, ultimately affecting very little. The best part of this? Not only would we pick up a seat, but Andy Harris would be the face of the Maryland GOP for years to come. Sounds like a win to me. (jeffmd)
• NM Redistricting: It's been a while since we've witnessed any outright kabuki cartography, but the curtains just went up in New Mexico. There, two state Senate committees just passed a new Dem-drawn congressional map, but even assuming the plan makes it through the full chamber and the state House (both of which are controlled by Democrats), you've got to believe Republican Gov. Susana Martinez will veto anything that the legislature sends to her. In the meantime, though, you can check out the map here (in pretty Google Maps format), along with other relevant data. Mostly, the fight is over the swingish 1st CD, which Dems are trying to shore up and which the GOP is whinging should be exactly 50-50 (according to whatever metric it is they're using).
• TX Redistricting: I thought this was a good meta-point from Gerry Hebert, who was my election law prof in law school and also happens to be one of the attorneys for the plaintiffs in the big San Antonio redistricting suit. Referring to the other ongoing case — the preclearance suit in DC where the DoJ just filed its answer yesterday — Hebert had this to say:
"I think DOJ concluded like many of us have who looked at this that the congressional map and the house map don't meet the requirements of the Voting Rights Act," Hebert told TPM.
"I mean in 2003 when Tom DeLay did the redistricting, the professional staff recommended that the plan be denied preclearance, but they were overruled," Hebert said. "This document reads like it's a professional staff answer, professional staff looked at this and made their determination."
"I think it's a good sign that voting rights is back in the hands of people who are going to make a judgment about the facts and the law," Hebert continued.
In other words, the adults are back in charge. I'm still glad outside organizations are getting involved in order to keep the pressure up on the DoJ, but this is a good sign.