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Maryland is one of the few states where the Democrats can draw maps improving the current Democratic representation.

The worst part of the redistricting process is hidden still. The Republicans have still a good number of important states (PA, FL,...) where they will have gains.

The Democratic side only has MD, and maybe NY.

I draw a 8-0 map for Maryland that divide the Eastern Shore. I see not reason to do not it.

If you click in every image you will see the image complete and all the data for every district.

ALL THE DISTRICTS

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MD-01 D+6 Open by R (A Harris) Highest level Democratic challenger F Kratovil (D)

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MD-02 D+6 D Ruppersberger (D) and A Harris (R)

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MD-03 D+6 J Sarbanes (D)

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MD-04 D+20 D Edwards (D) 50.1% Black

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MD-05 D+7 S Hoyer (D)

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MD-06 D+6 Open by R (R Bartlett) Highest level Democratic challenger R Garagiola (D)

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MD-07 D+17 E Cummings (D) 50.1% Black

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MD-08 D+6 C Van Hollen (D) and R Bartlett (R)

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Originally posted to abgin on Wed Sep 21, 2011 at 07:55 AM PDT.

Also republished by Maryland Kos.

Poll

The best option would be

45%26 votes
24%14 votes
29%17 votes

| 57 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  How do you (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, Mariken, JayinPortland

    make MD-01 and MD-06 competitive without putting Democratic incumbents at risk and diluting African-American voting strength in Elijah Cummings' district?

    Unapologetic Obama supporter.

    by Red Sox on Wed Sep 21, 2011 at 08:05:59 AM PDT

  •  Is there one R currently ? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, JayinPortland

    "Walking into someone's diary is like walking into someone's home. You are a guest. Act accordingly." Kos

    by Mariken on Wed Sep 21, 2011 at 08:19:22 AM PDT

  •  I just don't see it (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mariken, Red Sox, JayinPortland

    Baltimore City legislators will not want to have their territory subsumed by the Eastern Shore (and Eastern Shore Democrats will be equally unhappy about possibly being represented by a Baltimore machine pol), Rep. Sarbanes won't take kindly to being booted out of Baltimore City altogether, Prince George's County folks have no COI with the northern Baltimore exurbs and no desire to be joined with them, and Rep. Hoyer is nearly certain to veto a far more conservative district split by a part of Chesapeake Bay that lacks a road connection.

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Sep 21, 2011 at 08:23:23 AM PDT

    •  I see not the need of concede a district to the R (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Whitty

      If you have two R+13 districts in a D+9 state, the remaining 6 Democratic districts are living in a paradise for them, but well. S Hoyer better than others know the value of the gain of a new seat for making majorities. S Hoyer want to be majority? I would tell yes, and go from a D+11 to a D+7 is not as big change. I give him one point more than the rest.

      I think the Eastern Shore democrats must be really bored of be represented by republicans. Many of them are black. not conservadems.

      The Eastern Shore part included in MD-05 is 24.1% Black and 44.9% Democrat. The majority of the democrats here are black.

      The Eastern Shore part included in MD-01 is 11.2% Black and 40.2% Democrat. The majority of the Democrats here are white, but they go with the white parts of Baltimore. As bad for them?

    •  Many Eastern Shore Republicans are (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin

      Republicans because they hate Baltimore, they hate Baltimore Democrats, and there's still a cultural thing about race operating at a deep level.

      Because PG County, Mont County and Balto City can basically get together and pass anything they want in the Gen'l Ass'y, there's a corrosive cynicism on the Shore.

      People aren't as wango-tango-gonzo-dango as Andy Harris, who recently talked about "religious war" at a 9-11 ceremony, those folks are in Harford County around the endless military and milcontractor sites there.

      Eastern Shore folks were very happy with moderate and intelligent Republican Wayne Gilchrest -- who was primaried by wingnut money given to Andy Harris.

      Kratovil squeaked out a win as closer to Gilchrest than Andy, did a damned lousy job and got kicked hard for it.

      Thump! Bang. Whack-boing. It's dub!

      by dadadata on Sat Sep 24, 2011 at 03:42:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Go for 7-1 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mariken, SaoMagnifico

    Leave the most conservative Republican who believes the most conservative principles (privatizing social security, questioning the Presidents birth certificate and birth place, deniers of science, etc)

    I don't know which GOP congressperson is the most conservative, but I say let him be the face of the Maryland GOP to remind the voters of what the conservatives truly stand for.

    •  Harris is further right (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mariken, SaoMagnifico, jncca

      He seems to be almost the stereotype of the dull-bulb tea partier, going back to his clueless whining about a delay in his health benefits before he even got into office.  Bartlett is a bit less rightist, showing some concern for the environment and alternative energy, voting for the debt reduction plan which avoided a default (Harris voted no) and even (heresy!) saying something nice about parts of Obama's jobs bill.

      •  Where? (0+ / 0-)

        Where will we win the seat that replace MD-01 in the future Democratic majority of the US House?

        •  Somewhere that isn't Maryland (0+ / 0-)

          How about WA-03? Or NV-02? Or OH-02?

          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Wed Sep 21, 2011 at 10:54:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  They will be D+6? (0+ / 0-)

            Not... maybe... R+6...

            That mean difficult victory... That mean better chance for J Boehner...

            •  No, they won't be R+6. (0+ / 0-)

              Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Wed Sep 21, 2011 at 10:36:35 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  ? (0+ / 0-)

                OH-02 will be 44.8% Obama, that mean R+8.

                NV-02 will be the most republican district in NV. That mean at least R+4. You see the result of the last special election in the current district.

                WA-03 will be also R+.

                •  R+4 isn't R+6... (0+ / 0-)

                  And Rep. Schmidt is such a weak incumbent that she's beatable in an R+6.

                  Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                  by SaoMagnifico on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 07:22:58 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  beatable? (0+ / 0-)

                    Schmidt wins in 2010 58.45% to 34.66%. She is not popular but R+8 is R+8.

                    Amodei wins in 2011 58% to 36%. In the current R+5.

                    And you trust not Kratovil? the people that can beat Schmidt or Amodei must be like Kratovil.

                    I understand not to concede an extra seat to the republicans when we can have easily a D+6 district.

                    •  It's not happening (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      jncca

                      It's just not.

                      Voters aren't just numbers, abgin. In a state like Maryland, you have some very strong communities of interest. The Eastern Shore, Western Maryland, the D.C. suburbs, and the Baltimore area are completely disparate entities. Annapolis might be able to get away with drawing a D.C.-area district into parts of Western Maryland (as it's the least populous region of the state), and they've been able to get away with drawing an Eastern Shore district across the Bay Bridge into the Annapolis area (which actually makes sense, as there is a land connection and parts of Queen Anne's County are often considered suburbs and exurbs of Annapolis), but there are a whole bunch of districts on this map that just won't fly. They're not happening. And it may seem logical to you to maximize the Democratic advantage, but Annapolis just won't do it.

                      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 08:34:15 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  That is just the idea the use the republicans in (0+ / 0-)

                        the blue states for draw their maps.

                        This separation would drive you to a pretty map for the republicans.

                        Why can we draw a democratic map for western Maryland but not for Eastern Maryland?

                        It is only question of thinking about it, of see the need, and of want to draw the better map for the entire state.

                        In my draft the rating of every district is the closest possible to the average of the entire state. Is not all Maryland a community of interest?

                        •  Republicans are a much more homogenous party (0+ / 0-)

                          Democrats in states like Maryland are a coalition of culturally conservative rural Democrats, urban black Democrats, urban white Democrats, urban Latino Democrats, suburban black Democrats, suburban white Democrats, suburban Latino Democrats, etc. Within these groups, there are geographic splits as well based on COI.

                          Republicans have it easy. They're pretty much all white, they're pretty much all culturally conservative, and there aren't a ton of them in most big cities.

                          Democrats just have more internecine considerations.

                          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                          by SaoMagnifico on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 12:07:33 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

              •  The question is... (0+ / 0-)

                The Democratic side will have some loses after the redistricting process, and need some gains that can come from few places.

                The DCCC needs:

                The current MO-03 must be replaced by ? the new TX-34
                The current MI-09 must be replaced by ? the new WA-10
                The current OH-13 must be replaced by ? the new NV-04
                The current OH-09 must be replaced by ? the new OH-03
                The current PA-12? must be replaced by ? the new IL-08
                The current MA-10? must be replaced by ? the new MD-06
                The current OK-02 must be replaced by ? the new MD-01?

                new CO-03? maybe replacing IN-02?
                new CA-41 maybe replacing AR-04?
                new IL-10 maybe replacing UT-02?
                new CA-31 maybe replacing IA-03?
                new NH-02 maybe replacing NC-13?
                new IL-11
                new IL-17
                new CA-07

                Tell me more until the 25 necessary to regain the majority in the US House.

                The next options are more difficult than the defeat of D Lungren in the new CA-07 R+2.

                If we quit MD-01 from the list it would be more difficult.

                •  Rep. Buerkle in New York... (0+ / 0-)

                  Can't really be protected. She's a goner.

                  I'd say Rep. Bass in New Hampshire is toast. His approvals suck, and Ann McLane Kuster, who barely lost in 2010, is seeking a rematch.

                  If Rep. Walsh is nominated in IL-14, he's beatable. The man is a gaffe machine.

                  Rep. Cravaack is a surefire one-termer. He's in a very Democratic district, and he only won last year because he caught then-Rep. Oberstar sleeping. The Democrats have a great field and they should clean up there.

                  I wouldn't write off Rep. Carnahan in MO-02 just yet. I subscribed to the C.W. that Rep. Akin would destroy him, but Akin's not running (nor is he such a juggernaut), and I think it's winnable for Carnahan.

                  We're definitely gaining a few in Florida thanks to the fair districts legislation. In particular, Rep. West is a goner, and Democrats will probably net at least one new district (Jacksonville-based, in all likelihood) in redistricting.

                  I think the Texas map will be ruled illegal. Any Texas map that respects the VRA has to draw a couple new Democratic seats. That should balance out the painful upsets scored by now-Reps. Canseco and Farenthold and allow Rep. Doggett to continue to serve.

                  Democrats will probably gain at least one seat in Colorado under a compromise or court-drawn redistricting plan.

                  I don't think Rep. Steve King's odds are great in a significantly unfamiliar, much less conservative district against a smart, well-polished member of Iowa political royalty. I wouldn't count him as a likely loss, but I think Christine Vilsack can take that seat. In fact, I think she will.

                  If Reps. Wolf, Gerlach, Dent, or LoBiendo ever retire, those seats will flip blue as easily as then-Rep. Castle's did last year.

                  Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                  by SaoMagnifico on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 08:51:00 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  NY-09 will disappear and if NY-25 disappear not (0+ / 0-)

                    a democratic district would disappear, then, count not NY-25, if you see I add not no-one NY seat in our list of safe or possible loses.

                    I also include not TX-35 because we can take the district as the successor of the current TX-25.

                    I do the effort, but would be good you also do the effort of expand the list until have 25 gains, and you will see what kind of districts will need to win the blue team for regaining the majority. You can continue until 25.

                    If we need F LoBiondo retires, we can be waiting more than 20 years.

                    And you are assuming MN-08 and some PA seats will continue as D+ (the republicans have full control of the redistricting process in PA).

  •  Ruppersberger, Sarbanes and (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mariken, SaoMagnifico

    possibly Van Hollen would all be screwed there, and Cummings would never accept going down to 50.1% Black (Edwards might, maybe, she's relatively popular with whites in her base.). So, you wouldn't get the votes in the legislature for this proposal.

    •  I think not the same (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mariken

      Cummings is still in a D+20.  The proposed 7-1 map is giving him only 54%. Not difference.

      Van Hollen keeps his basis of democratic vote. In this new MD-08 the democratic vote come from Montgomery county, where he lives. No-one trouble for him.

      Sarbanes has name recognition by all the state, and plus, he has not good level potential primary challengers in this new draft of district. Of the most important democrats in the state only K Townsend-Kennedy is living in this district.

      Only Ruppersberger can have troubles in the primary. But you can talk me about S Austria (R), etc...

      The rest would not have troubles.

  •  I applaud the effort, but... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    ...my concern would be the shape of the 8th. I don't think anyone in the state house is going to go along with a plan that puts Hagerstown in the same district as Bethesda, even if it would mean getting rid of Roscoe. The Northern part of the state and the DC 'burbs are practically different countries in a lot of ways, and putting them into one CD seems like a very tough sell.

    ‎"Our greatest asset as advocates is a deep cognizance of our own ignorance, plus a willingness to do something about it." -Joseph Mitchell Kaye, 1966.

    by JR on Wed Sep 21, 2011 at 10:25:35 AM PDT

    •  Of course, the "leaked" map... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin

      ...that appeared Monday does something similar, only it pulls the 6th down to parts of Montgomery, instead of extending the 8th up to the northwest corner of the state. But that map seems to be drawn to both cut down on the 6th's chances for going R and increase the pull of the 'burbs in the House delegation (while giving Democrats near Van Hollen a shot at a House seat).

      ‎"Our greatest asset as advocates is a deep cognizance of our own ignorance, plus a willingness to do something about it." -Joseph Mitchell Kaye, 1966.

      by JR on Wed Sep 21, 2011 at 10:34:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Garagiola (0+ / 0-)

        Yes, like you tell the map published take also this way. This is the way for give to West Maryland D+ districts.

        I see two advantages in my map what I see not in the published map.

        - The map is a little better balanced since the point of draw a 8-0 map.

        - I find not it but the new MD-06 would have R Garagiola as the frontrunner in the democratic side. He would not be in the same district than C Van Hollen as habitually.

        Between my MD-08 and MD-06 we can draw some change, but to balance all is not easy.

    •  That's the part I find least problematic (0+ / 0-)

      I know Democrats have openly discussed putting Hagerstown (and even the entire Panhandle, which I personally oppose but whatever) into the same district as western Montgomery County.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Sep 21, 2011 at 10:55:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Oh, I just noticed another thing. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico

    Your black VRA districts aren't VRA districts. You were using total population to draw the districts, but the relevant standard is Voting Age Population. Your districts are 48.5/49.1 by that standard.

  •  Wow, I hate that map (0+ / 0-)

    Even if it works for the Democrats it just entirely offends as a human.

    I utterly despise districts that aren't compact as close to square or circular as possible, aren't contiguous, and don't otherwise follow city, county, and geographical borders.

    MD-01:  You mean there wasn't some way you could possibly include the Amish in Rising Sun with the hippies in Takoma Park?
    MD-02: Is this one meant to spiral out of Hampden or spiral into Hampden?
    MD-03: Did you drive in a car to design this one? I-95, MD-32, U.S. 29, I-70, I-695, and back to I-95 with every neighborhood along side that route? This quite possibly the most offensive district you drew.
    MD-04: Could you make that Bowie connector any narrower? Did you model the shape of that district on Trent Frank's AZ-02?
    MD-05: Did we build a second crossing of the Chesapeake Bay 30 miles of the Bay Bridge? Because your map makes it seem like there is some connection between
    MD-06: This district would work if all the districts around it weren't so f---ed up.
    MD-07: I hate mostly rural districts that stick one finger into a major city. The representative from Pimlico and Parkdale should not also be representing Elkton.
    MD-08: What pray do Cumberland and Chevy Chase have in common? I totally don't understand a district that is half the width of the state.



    Ideally (okay I would draw ideal districts, but realize that ain't gonna happen unless we pass a constitutional amendment requiring them in all states):
    MD-01:  Should be essentially western Maryland, Cumberland, Hagerstown, and Frederick.
    MD-02: Should be Montgomery County.
    MD-03: Should be essentially Prince George's County.
    MD-04: Should be essentially Charles, Calvert, St. Mary's, and southern Anne Arundel counties,
    MD-05: Should be essentially Howard, Carroll, and Baltimore Counties.
    MD-06: Should be essentially Baltimore City with some of the northern part of Anne Arundel.
    MD-07: Should be essentially Harford & Cecil with some of the eastern part of Baltimore city.
    MD-08: Should be essentially the eastern shore.

    Teh stoopidTM, it hurts. Buy smart, union-printed, USA-made, signs, stickers, swag for everyone: DemSign.com.

    by DemSign on Wed Sep 21, 2011 at 01:54:34 PM PDT

    •  The "compact district" goal (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin, twohundertseventy, jncca

      only really makes sense in big blocky states with largely homogeneous populations, like Iowa.

      Take a state like Illinois and try to draw nice big square or circular districts and you will draw a map that gives Republicans many more districts than they deserve, and confines Democrats to ultra-blue vote sinks in Chicago.

      It's not our fault that Democrats tend to be clustered closer together geographically than Republicans.  But we do have to take it into account so we don't end up drawing GOP gerrymanders ourselves.

      Otherwise we end up with a few D+30 districts and then many more R+5 or so seats, and a House delegation that is much more conservative than the state as a whole.  Look at the new Ohio and North Carolina maps for prime examples of that.

    •  Haha, I actually thought the map (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin

      was relatively compact, both compared to my proposal and to the current map.

    •  You should see what is here (0+ / 0-)

      Too much theatre in your words... that are not right...

      Because the districts are contiguous and respect the rules for it. All.

      Because the districts are a lot more compacts than the current districts and the district proposed.

      Because the districts follow many times the county borders and break the minimum lines to have this result. In this also my map is a lot better than the current map and the map proposed.

      Because the districts respect the borders of the cities except for Baltimore and when the blocks in the DRA follow not the limits of the cities.

      No sense.

    •  I don't think anyone can complain (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      davybaby, abgin

      about abgin's 4th when the current 1st and 2nd are way worse and the 3rd is only a few blocks wide.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Wed Sep 21, 2011 at 11:04:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Oh, grow up! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin

      Did you see the maps the Rethugs drew in Ohio and North Carolina? Maryland is one of the few places where we can fight back, and we need to take advantage of the opportunity.

  •  Another good one abgin (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    But I think the Democratic incumbents might object to some of the changes required to get an 8-0 map.  Turning the panhandle district into a Dem seat is comparatively easy (and the panhandle has nowhere near enough population on its own to dictate what other counties should be grouped with it).  But cracking the Eastern Shore will be more difficult I think politically.  It sounds like Hoyer and his allies want to maintain it as a GOP vote sink but I think a far more reasonable goal would be to just make it competitive...it's currently like 40% Obama, how about we get it to 45% Obama without drastically messing with the lines?  Kratovil would crush Harris in a district like that.

    But getting it up to D+6 is just tough and requires a lot of changes people may not like.

    •  Thanks Skaje (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje

      Some time bigger changes are necessary. I think this is one.

    •  From what I'm hearing it's not Hoyer who's (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      objecting. Hoyer likes Kratovil a lot and would love to have him back in Congress. It's Baltimore African-Americans who don't want to be used as an attachment to the Eastern Shore. I kind of see their point. They'd be used to elect a conservative Democrat from a hundred miles away, who doesn't share their values or lifestyle, and who would probably completely ignore them. It's better for them to be in Cummings or even Sarbanes/Ruppersbergers district than in Kratovil's or if he fails to take Harris out maybe even in Harris'.

  •  Other advantage of a map like this (0+ / 0-)

    A Harris (R) and R Bartlett (R) are both out their own district.

  •  The recount for the US House (0+ / 0-)

    Fist we must take into account that the democrats can lose some after the redistricting process.

    We must assume also that the new TX-35 is the successor of the current TX-25, the new OH-09 is the successor of the current OH-10, and that two republican seats will disappear in NY and one in NJ after the redistricting process, likely NY-09, NY-25 and NJ-03. That mean we can not count these districts as potential gains without include other democratic seats as potential loses.

    After this, we can lose still between 7 and 12 seats:

    MO-03 disappear
    MI-09 disappear
    OH-13 disappear
    OH-09 disappear
    PA-12? disappear
    MA-10? disappear
    NC-13 open
    IN-02 open
    OK-02 open
    AR-04 open
    TN-05 ?
    UT-02 open?

    That mean we must gain between 32 and 37 seats for regaining the majority in the US-House:

    Group 1: D+ open by R
    01 TX-34 new
    02 WA-10? new
    03 NV-04? new
    04 OH-03 open
    05 IL-08 open

    Group 2: D+ seats R incumbent underperforming the republican average
    06 MD-01 ?
    07 MD-06
    08 CO-03 ?
    09 CA-41
    10 IL-10
    11 CA-31
    12 NH-02
    13 IL-11
    14 IL-17

    Group 3: R+ seats R incumbent underperforming the republican average
    15 CA-07
    16 MI-07
    17 TX-23
    18 MI-01
    19 CA-36
    20 MO-04
    21 SD-AL
    22 WV-01

    Group 4: D+ and EVEN seats R incumbent overperforming the republican average
    23 CA-52
    24 WA-08
    25 CA-26
    26 NH-01
    27 IL-13
    28 MI-06
    29 MI-08

    Group 5: R+low seats R incumbent overperforming by less than 5% the republican average
    30 IL-14
    31 MI-03
    32 CA-49
    33 OH-16
    34 IN-08
    35 NV-03 (Currently Group 2. Can not be in the Group 3 or 4. R improvement.)
    36 MN-08 (Currently Group 2. Can not be in the Group 3 or 4. R improvement.)

    Currently there are more districticts in the Group 3 (FL-12, NY-13, AZ-01, VA-05, NY-19, ID-01, NY-24 and VA-09) and in the Group 4 (WI-07, WA-03, PA-08, PA-15, PA-11, PA-07, PA-06, MN-03 and NJ-02). But the republicans will have the chance of improve them, except, maybe, for NY. Still we can see some of them in the Group 5.

    You can see what kind of districts the blue team will need to gain in the next decade for regaining the majority in the US House. The DCCC can fail gaining some district of the Group 4, but will need to win some seats of the Group 5 and it is not easy.

    A good MD-01 and CO-03 will be necessary for the Democratic Party.

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