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8:19 AM PT: Special Elections: Johnny with the roundup of last night's festivities:
• Georgia HD-42: Going to a runoff on October 18 between two of the five Republicans who ran; Robert Lamutt and John Carson clinched the top two spots.
• Massachusetts House, Bristol-12: Keiko Orrall picked up this seat for the Republicans, defeating Democrat Roger Brunelle 55-45.
• New Hampshire House, Hillsborough-3: Peter Leishman picked up this seat for the Democrats in a 60-40 victory over Republican David Simpson.
8:27 AM PT: NJ-St. Sen.: Wow. This could be a really stunning setback for Carl Lewis, after he already appeared to make it over the finish line. A federal appellate panel, which previously ruled he could appear on the ballot, has now made the extremely unusual move of vacating its previous decision. I don't know why the judges didn't seem to be aware of this previously, but apparently at least one is unhappy about the fact that Lewis voted in California in 2008 and 2009. It doesn't look good for Lewis.
8:35 AM PT: IL-14: Already-disgraced GOP freshman Joe Walsh has made it official: To no one's surprise, he announced he'll run against fellow Republican incumbent Randy Hultgren in the redrawn 14th district. Amusingly, he said of himself and Hultgren: "We've both had a very different initial tenure in Washington." That's one way of putting it.
9:40 AM PT: CA-Sen: That's one way to bounce back from having your campaign coffers raided by a corrupt treasurer: Sen. Dianne Feinstein says she'll put $5 million of her (very considerable) personal wealth into her own race, an amount that equals what she reported to the FEC as having on hand on June 30. Amazingly, Politico also reports that Feinstein is still unable to access her campaign accounts in the three weeks since the Kinde Durkee story broke, which suggests that she had a shoddy or non-existent system of redundancies in place to protect against this sort of thing. It also means Feinstein doesn't even know how much has been stolen.
9:43 AM PT: GA-12: Even though they've drawn Dem Rep. John Barrow into an almost unwinnable district, I guess the NRCC isn't taking any chances. They're up with a $21K ad buy criticizing Barrow for voting for the stimulus — and to show that you can never win when you play their game, they're also attacking him for refusing to vote for a repeal of healthcare reform (lolbluedogs). So this looks like part of their ongoing "get the guy to retire" strategy (they're also airing ads trying to goad California Rep. Jim Costa into hanging up his spurs, too).
9:51 AM PT: IL-16: Winnebago County Board member Frank Gambino, who had previously indicated he was gearing up for a primary challenge to fellow Republican Rep. Don Manzullo, is instead going to run for state Senate.
10:34 AM PT: NY-23: Even though he said he'd seek a rematch against Dem Rep. Bill Owens back in May, businessman Matt Doheny only just now filed FEC paperwork to make the race official. Yes, pre-announcements are my least-favorite thing in politics.
10:44 AM PT: TX-Sen, TX-Gov: Back in July, we linked a story that explained what would happen if Gov. Rick Perry got elected president and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst got elected to the Senate at the same time. The answer was… complicated. But now the Austin American-Statesman's Jason Embry has added an even stranger wrinkle: What would happen if both Perry and Dewhurst won, but Dewhurst decided he'd rather spurn the Senate and ascend to the governor's mansion as Perry's automatic replacement? Read the link to explore this late-night sports radio call-in show-style hypothetical.
10:52 AM PT: IL-12: Jason Plummer, the 2010 Republican Lt. Gov. nominee, is reportedly considering a challenge to Dem Rep. Jerry Costello. The NRCC previously spent $20K on an ad attacking Costello of "bankrupting Medicare." Note that even during last year's red hurricane, Costello won 60-37.
10:56 AM PT: MI-05: Good luck winning the GOP primary, jerkface: Former state Rep. Jim Slezak, who served a single term in the legislature as a Democrat before failing in a state Senate primary bid last year, is switching to the Republican Party in order to run for the 5th CD seat left open by Rep. Dale Kildee's retirement.
11:47 AM PT: CA-15: The East Bay Citizen reports (via an anonymous source) that Senate Majority Leader Ellen Corbett will not challenge Rep. Pete Stark in the Democratic primary, even though she recently filed FEC paperwork to create a campaign committee. The same piece also suggests that Assemblywoman Mary Hayashi might mount a bid. Meanwhile, at least one Democrat is in fact getting in against Stark: Eric Swalwell, an Alameda County deputy district attorney and Dublin City Councilman, just joined the race.
11:48 AM PT (David Jarman): WA redistricting: If you're a Daily Kos Elections regular, you probably start to get itchy and hallucinate when enough time goes by without getting a new map to look at. Well, if you're in need of a cartography fix, here's something to tide you over: the newly redistricted map for the nine seats on the King County Council (a pretty significant municipality, at 1.9 million residents).
11:55 AM PT: CT-Sen: Huh? Didn't Rob Simmons specifically say that he and Chris Shays have a non-aggression pact? According to Shira Toeplitz's Aug. 26 piece, they sure did, with both ex-Reps. telling that only one of them would go up against Linda McMahon in the GOP primary. With Shays moving ahead with a bid, it certainly seemed pretty clear whose turn it was to get steamrolled, but now comes this from Simmons:
“I’m not ruling anything out. Things can change very quickly and drastically. Politics is a calling. I’m always looking for new opportunities to serve.”
Chris Shays certainly won't be too happy to hear this… but I sure am. A Simmons entry would turn a likely McMahon victory into something close to a sure thing.
12:01 PM PT: CA-Sen: Fox News (sorry, sorry) spoke with Michael Reagan, who says he isn't running against Sen. Dianne Feinstein and claims never to have spoken with the San Francisco Chronicle, which originally reported he was thinking about the race. Reagan, by the way, is indeed the name you know: He's a conservative talk radio host and the son of the former president. Michael was in fact adopted by Ronald and his first wife, Jane Wyman, and apparently didn't have a great relationship with pops.
12:16 PM PT: IL-11, IL-16: Whoa. GOP freshman Adam Kinzinger, who currently occupies the 11th, says he plans to seek re-election in the 16th CD, a Republican vote sink. You'd think that would set him up on a collision course in the primary with veteran Rep. Don Manzullo, but amazingly, buried at the end of the piece is news that Manzullo will instead seek re-election in the redrawn (and much, much bluer) 11th District. That puts Manzullo on track to face off against Dem ex-Rep. Bill Foster, but this seems like a tough row to hoe for the Republican: The new 11th went for Obama by a 61-37 margin, and even in 2010, Dem Gov. Pat Quinn only lost it by two points (47-45).
12:20 PM PT: WV-Gov: Early voting has begun in the West Virginia special gubernatorial election between acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) and businessman Bill Maloney (R). The early voting period continues until Oct. 1. For obscure reasons, election day is Oct. 4 (rather than in November).
12:24 PM PT: PA-07: Dem ex-Rep. Joe Sestak, in the news because of his opposition to the Pennsylvania GOP's electoral college plan, is also saying he isn't ruling out another run for elective office — which is exactly what he said in February when he was last asked. Back then, though, the speculation was that he might run for governor in 2014. Now, PoliticsPA is suggesting a return to his old seat in the 7th CD could be in the cards, and adds that local politicos and potential candidates are all playing wait-and-see.
12:29 PM PT: VRA: Rick Hasen reports that Judge John Bates of the DC District just upheld the constitutionality of section 5 of the Voting Rights Act — the part of the law which requires certain jurisdictions with a history of discrimination to "preclear" any changes to voting procedures with the Department of Justice. Hasen notes that Bates is a George W. Bush appointee and thinks that Bates wrote a very strong decision which could help sway Anthony Kennedy when this case (or one like it) eventually gets to the Supreme Court.
12:36 PM PT: Voter Suppression: Man these people are a fucking joke. At taxpayer expense, Maine's Republican Secretary of State investigated "voter fraud" for two months, found none, and then concludes that the system is "fragile and vulnerable." Keep trying!
12:45 PM PT: OH Redistricting: The state Senate may vote on the new congressional map today (the House already passed it) — and Republicans also say they think they've found a way to innoculate the bill against a possible voter referendum. The Toledo Blade has more, but it's not perfectly clear-cut:
Senate Republicans intend to add an appropriation to their bill redrawing Ohio’s congressional districts, a move that would allow the districts to take effect immediately and possibly sidestep a potential voter referendum by Democrats. […]
As a general rule, appropriation bills, such as the state budget, take effective immediately and are not subject to a petition effort to put the law directly to voters. That, however, has become less clear. The Ohio Supreme Court last year derailed then Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland’s plan to install slot machines at racetracks by inserting the language into the budget, ruling that that language could be separately subjected to referendum.
"That’s a question for lawyers and legal authority, but I think the law is clear, if the appropriation is relevant to the issue at hand, the appropriation generally makes those portions effective immediately," said Sen. Keith Fabor (R., Celina), the committee’s chairman and a lawyer.
Meanwhile, another interesting article from the Blade notes that Democrats successfully blocked a redistricting map at the ballot box… back in 1915. Indeed, the case even went all the way up the US Supreme Court, which upheld the validity of the referendum.
1:00 PM PT: IL-16: I just spoke with Rich Carter, press secretary for Republican Rep. Don Manzullo. He says that the Morris Daily Herald report which said that Manzullo would run in the new 11th CD is an "error." He also confirmed that Manzullo is circulating petitions in the 16th District.
1:12 PM PT: KY-Gov: This David Williams ad featuring "two dudes at a diner" just seems utterly forced and phony. These fake attempts at authenticity so seldom seem to work. If you want to watch a truly authentic ad, check out this spot Tom Udall ran back in 2008.
1:23 PM PT: MO-Sen, MO-Gov, MO-Pres: PPP has some Republican primary numbers for the state of Missouri, and the most interesting are from the Senate race. There, former Treasurer Sarah Steelman has taken an unexpected 40-29 lead over Rep. Todd Akin, who was up 29-28 four months ago. However, last time, Tom Jensen included teabagger Ed Martin (who has dropped out) and businessman John Brunner (who hasn't), so it looks like their support has gone to Steelman. Akin stay at 29 is certainly bad for him. As for the other two races, Missouri Republicans don't like Peter Kinder and love them some Rick Perry.