Skip to main content

A survey of hypothetical general election trial heats in the 2012 presidential election shows that, since Labor Day, President Barack Obama has gained significant ground on the two frontrunners for the Republican nomination.

While some of this bump can be attributed to Obama's speech on jobs before a joint session of Congress, an equally striking aspect of recent 2012 polling cannot. Namely, Texas Governor Rick Perry has lost ground on President Obama at more than twice the rate of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. This indicates that the American public is souring on Rick Perry in and of himself.

The chart above tells the tale. In the seven national polls taken both after Rick Perry's entry in the campaign and before Labor Day, Obama led Perry by an average of 1.8 percent and Romney by an average of 1.0 percent. These polls gave Romney an almost non-existent electability edge of 0.9 percent (rounding makes it 0.9 percent, even though the chart shows 0.8 percent).

By way of comparison, in the six national polls taken since Labor Day, Obama has led Perry by 8.2 percent, and Romney by an average of 3.0 percent. Thus, Romney now has a very significant electability edge of 5.2 percent, allowing him to remain competitive with Obama even as Perry falls well behind.

This trend is less pronounced, but still significant, when anomalous Rasmussen polling is removed from the averages:

Rasmussen, which performed poorly in the 2010 midterm elections, was the only polling outfit showing Perry performing better against Obama than Romney. Even with their surveys removed from the averages, since Labor Day Romney has improved 2.8 percent relative to Perry in hypothetical 2012 general election match-ups.

There is no guarantee that this trend will hold. By the time of the early caucuses and primaries, it is possible that Rick Perry will be outperforming Mitt Romney in general election trial heats against Barack Obama. Still, this development is worth keeping an eye on, especially given the rapid rise and fall of so many other Republican presidential contenders in 2011.

Originally posted to Chris Bowers on Wed Sep 21, 2011 at 09:17 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site