Public Policy Polling (PDF). 9/15-18. MoE ±4.1% (6/25-27 in parens, 1/14-16 in brackets):
Ricardo Sanchez (D): 32 (37)
David Dewhurst (R): 47 (45)
Undecided: 22 (18)
Ricardo Sanchez (D): 31 (32)
Ted Cruz (R): 42 (41)
Undecided: 27 (27)
Ricardo Sanchez (D): 32 (35)
Tom Leppert (R): 41 (38)
Undecided: 27 (27)
Chet Edwards (D): 35 [31]
David Dewhurst (R): 43 [50]
Undecided: 22 [19]
Chet Edwards (D): 33
Ted Cruz (R): 37
Undecided: 30
Chet Edwards (D): 33 [30]
Tom Leppert (R): 39 [46]
Undecided: 28 [24]
I really don't have a whole lot to say about this race. The numbers look uninspiring for both the one Democrat who is running (Ricardo Sanchez) and the one Democrat who isn't (Chet Edwards). One day Democrats will be competitive in a Texas Senate race. I just don't think that day is today. So for now, the GOP primary (PDF) looks to be where all the action is (MoE ±4.9%):
David Dewhurst (R): 41
Ted Cruz (R): 12
Elizabeth Ames Jones (R): 7
Tom Leppert (R): 6
Other/undecided: 34
PPP tested a bajillion candidates (PDF) last time he went into Texas, so the trendlines aren't really worth looking at now that the field has settled down. Tom does add this, though:
There's no indication of any trouble at least at this point for Dewhurst with folks on the right — his 45% support level with voters identifying as "very conservative" is higher than with any other ideological group.
The nomination contest is hardly over though — much of Dewhurst's early lead is built on name recognition. 58% of primary voters are familiar with him compared to 26% for Leppert and 22% for Cruz. With the voters who are familiar with Cruz — whether they have a positive opinion or a negative one — Dewhurst's lead is only 44-29. That bodes well for Cruz's support building as he becomes better known.
While Dewhurst isn't anything like the apostate Charlie Crist was, I've maintained for a while that I think Ted Cruz could play the role of Marco Rubio here, just in terms of the more conservative, younger, outsiderish candidate beating the establishment favorite. Texas holds the first-in-the-nation primary (at least as far as congressional race go—see our complete calendar here), which means election day is now about six months away. Still a lot of time for all kinds of movement.