Pennsylvania: Leaning Dem? A GOP poll says "yes"
Up is down, and down is up in the world of horserace politics this week. A Republican pollster says President Obama is up double digits in Pennsylvania, even after other pollsters (including our partners at PPP) had the state considerably closer. And after his best national polling week in months, USA Today/Gallup tosses a pitcher of cold water on the president, saying he would be trailing Mitt Romney if the election were held today. Marist/McClatchy takes it one step further, putting Sarah Palin within striking distance of the president.
Most of the data in this numbers-heavy week, however, falls in the realm of "as expected." There are no huge surprises in the statewide presidential numbers, though there was one huge "whoa" moment in the downballot polling. Meanwhile, on the GOP front, Rick Perry still paces the GOP field, but there are more signs that this has become a two-man race, and that Mittens might have staunched the bleeding.
All this (and more!) in this "Fall is upon us" edition of the weekend digest.
THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
NATIONAL POLLS: A week after the president appeared to be getting his election groove back in a trio of national polls, the week opened with considerably cooler numbers from USA Today/Gallup. The pollster gave GOP challenger Mitt Romney a lead of two points over the president (49-47), while Rick Perry trailed Obama by a relatively slim five points (50-45). While these Perry numbers weren't as rosy as Obama's nums against him last week, they are sombetter than the last time Gallup polled the race. When Gallup (without the USA Today brand) polled the presidential general trial heat back in mid-August, they had Obama and Perry deadlocked at 47. The Obama-Romney numbers are unchanged since that mid-August survey.
The real head scratcher, though, came from the crew at McClatchy/Marist. The confounding data point was not dealing with either Romney or Perry: the president led Romney by two (46-44) and Perry by nine (50-41). Where the collective "WTF" moment came was in a trial heat with unannounced Republican Sarah Palin, who almost always brings up the rear in any set of GOP general election trial heats. In this poll, however, she actually performed better than several GOPers, with a margin of just five points (49-44) between her and the president. This was not only better than the margin with Rick Perry, it was also better than the margin between Obama and Michele Bachmann (53-40). Another unannounced and unlikely Republican (Rudy Giuliani) was actually polled with a lead over the president (49-42). Where this poll gets exceedingly odd, however, is in the fact that a majority of Republicans said that they did not want Palin nor Giuliani to run. Given that, are we to assume that Rudy and Palin get their love from ertswhile Democrats and Indie voters? The collection of data points on this one are a tad perplexing, though they might be explained by the sheer antipathy GOP and some Indie voters have for Obama. They might not want either candidate in the field, but they'd still prefer them to the incumbent.
On the primary front, USA Today/Gallup confirmed a trend a few pollsters hinted at last week, which was a widening gulf between Perry, Romney, and the rest of the GOP field. Perry led with 31 percent of the vote in the USAT/Gallup poll, followed by Romney at 24 percent. It was quite a ways back to Ron Paul (13 percent), with no one else in the field above 5 percent of the vote. Sarah Palin acolytes will complain that she wasn't tested, which skews the two-candidate breakaway. It must be noted, however, that their complaints mean less and less the further into the cycle we get with no hint that their beloved former half-term governor is actually serious about getting into the mix.
McClatchy/Marist did separate ballot tests with or without the Palin/Giuliani options. In the non-Palin/Giuliani tabulation, it was Perry +8 (30-22). With the two unlikely interlopers in the mix, the results changed markedly: Perry 20, Giuliani 14, Romney 13, Palin 13.
IN THE STATES: Among the more common memes of the 2012 election cycle has been the expectation that the economic doldrums afflicting the nation would hamper the president in some of the hardest-hit blue states. Central to this theory has been Pennsylvania, where polling all year has shown the president underperforming typical Democratic performance over the past decade, relative to national numbers. Then, this week, along comes a new poll from the GOP-friendly crew at Magellan. The survey found the president with weak approval and re-elect numbers, but also had him easily leading his main GOP challengers (another familiar theme this year). Magellan found Obama with double-digit leads over either Mitt Romney (50-40) or Rick Perry (52-37). This despite slightly more folks (48 percent) that said the president does not deserve re-election than said the president does deserve to be re-elected (46 percent). Of course, Magellan is a "grain-of-salt" pollster, as they have had some counterintuitive numbers in the past, as well. So, if we advise caution when their numbers are unusually bad for team Dem, it's only proper that we do so when the nums seem unusually good for the blue team, as well.
The numbers in Florida, meanwhile, are less optimistic for team Obama. The new Quinnipiac poll out of the state gave Mitt Romney a fairly solid edge (47-40) over the president. Rick Perry, once down double digits to the president in Florida according to the Q, has cut the Obama edge down to a mere two points (44-42).
A similar theme was echoed in another battleground state (Michigan), though the margins were a little better for the president. In a poll conducted by MRG for Inside Michigan Politics, the president winds up being tied with semi-native son Mitt Romney (44-44). In better news for the Democrats, if Romney isn't the nominee, Obama soars to a double-digit edge over the next man up, Rick Perry (50-39).
Another 2008 blue state will remain so, according to a new poll from a new pollster. In Washington, local outfit Strategies360 found Barack Obama with respectable leads over either Mitt Romney (49-40) or Rick Perry (51-37). Washington's 12 electoral votes had been generally considered to be locked down for the President, so it is hard to say that this poll comes as any real surprise.
In PPP's new poll out of Texas, the outcome was predictable, if not the margins. After all, it has to be considered newsworthy that the president outperformed his 2008 margins against every Republican, including native son Rick Perry. Perry did the best, leading by seven points (51-44). Romney performed similarly (leading 47-41), but the president actually held incremental leads in Texas over either Michele Bachmann or Newt Gingrich.
Perry leads in the state he led as governor, however, which is more than can be said for Mitt Romney. PPP looked at Massachusetts this week, as well. As might be expected in solidly blue Massachusetts, Barack Obama is lapping the field. What makes that significant, of course, is that a certain GOP frontrunner led that state a decade ago. He comes the closest to Obama, but even he trailed by double digits (53-40). The rest of the GOP field, meanwhile, were absolutely boat-raced in Massachusetts, with margins ranging from 25-31 points.
Meanwhile, PPP had every major Republican in the fold (including unannounced and unlikely candidate Sarah Palin) leading Obama in West Virginia. The margins, given the universal GOP lead, are actually not that great. As in Texas, all five offered GOP challengers led Obama by a margin smaller than the one enjoyed by John McCain in 2008. The margins ranged from 3 points (Palin) to 12 points (Romney).
On the primary front, we received two different data points out of the state of New Hampshire. Two conclusions: (1) Romney is still the colossus of the Granite State. The Suffolk poll (linked above) had Romney at 41%, with Ron Paul running a decidedly distant second at 14%. The House of Ras had Mittens at 39 percent, with Rick Perry in the #2 slot at 18 percent. (2) This is the one place where Jon Huntsman could become semi-relevant. He runs third in the Suffolk poll (at 10 percent!), while taking fourth (at 7 percent) in the Ras poll.
In another one of many semi-home states for Romney, he fares equally well. In the MRG poll of Michigan, Romney held a decisive 40-17 lead over Rick Perry, with all other comers languishing in the single digits.
Down in the Sunshine State, meanwhile, Quinnipiac's look at Florida saw Rick Perry seizing the lead in the Florida GOP primary from Mitt Romney. What was once a narrow Romney lead has now become a six-point lead for Perry (28-22) which extends to nine points if some of the less-likely candidates to run are excluded. Speaking of less likely candidates, Palin took third in the FL GOP Quinnipiac poll, albeit way behind the two frontrunners (8 percent).
If there was a positive Romney result this week that was unexpected (NH and MI, at best, are "as expected" results), it came in South Carolina. Here, Winthrop found that while Rick Perry edged out the Mittster in the Palmetto State, it was actually pretty darned close (31-27). The rest of the field, meanwhile, is well behind, with no one else emerging into double digits.
Perry fared better in Missouri, however, according to the PPP poll there. The kinda-sorta Southern state loves them some Southern cooking, as Perry doubled up Romney (31-15) in the Show Me State. We had a Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain sighting here, as well: they tied for third place at 10 percent of the vote.
THE RACE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
AT THE POLLS: Aside from the deluge of presidential numbers, easily the largest polling headline this week came out of Massachusetts, where it is safe to conclude that Elizabeth Warren's Senate campaign rollout is proceeding well. The new PPP poll out of the state showed that, if the election were held today, Warren would actually edge out incumbent Republican Sen. Scott Brown (46-44). In a sign that this result was more the function of a surging Warren candidacy than the result of a favorable sample, Brown continued to hold solid leads over the balance of the Democratic contenders (margins ranging from 15-19 points). This is a huge flip from June, when Brown led Warren by fifteen points. PPP also polled the Dem primary, where Brown is a juggernaut--her 55% of the vote easily eclipsed second-place Alan Khazei, who is cruising at a less lofty 9%.
PPP's numbers from Texas are quite a bit less optimistic. Then again, the open-seat race in Texas has always been considered a bit more of a stretch for the Dems. Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst has a solid lead in the GOP primary (leading tea party fave Ted Cruz 41-12), and would defeat either Democrat Chet Edwards (43-35) or Ricardo Sanchez (47-32) in the general. Ted Cruz does marginally worse against the Dems, with leads of 4-11 points.
A GOP poll in Nevada has to be seen as a bit of a mixed bag for Democrats. On one hand, Dems can't be too happy about a poll that shows one of their two best bets for a pickup staying in GOP hands by a modest margin. However, after the drubbing the GOP laid down last week in a special House election in the 2nd CD here, maybe being down in the mid-single digits doesn't seem so bad. The poll, by Public Opinion Strategies for a corporate interest group, found incumbent GOP Sen. Dean Heller leading Democratic Rep. Shelly Berkley by a 48-42 margin.
We'll close out the Senate polling with a couple of primaries to report on: in Missouri, PPP showed some daylight emerging between co-frontrunners Sarah Steelman and Todd Akin. The poll found state treasurer Steelman with a double-digit edge (40-29) over Akin, the veteran GOP congressman. Meanwhile, a Lake Research poll out of Nebraska (for a local environmental group) found state Atty Gen. Jon Bruning with a 29-12 lead over former statewide officer (and 2000 GOP nominee) Don Stenberg.
The aforementioned Magellan poll in Pennsylvania also tested the Senate race, but there is a complication in that race. Namely, it is the fact that no first-tier Republicans have leapt into the fray, as of yet. So, in a traditional dodge, the pollster tested incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey against the always formidable "generic Republican." Casey leads G.R. by a 46-34 margin. Solid, but not enough for Democrats to breathe completely easy. Yet.
The respected Field Poll in California might have some alarm bells for one Dianne Feinstein. DiFi has rolled in her previous few Senate bids, but the poll showed her re-elect has slid to 41-44. Of course, Feinstein is bolstered by the fact that you can't beat someone with no one, and the GOP has been unusually quiet about finding a first-tier challenger to step up against the three-term incumbent.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- The long national nightmare is finally over. No longer will you stay up nights, tossing and turning, contemplating whether or not former Gov. Tommy Thompson would get off of his duff and actually run for the U.S. Senate seat in Wisconsin. At the beginning of the week, Thompson shocked the nation by announcing he would make the bid. Actually, he shocked absolutely no one. But, at any rate, he's running.
- In the poll section of the Senate wrap, I noted that Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) didn't have any first-tier opposition in California. I might have spoken too soon. Feel the Orly-mentum?! The dentist/birther/lawyer is apparently flirting with making a go of it.
- For a variety of reasons, Connecticut might be getting interesting very soon at the Senate level. We got word this week (whee!) that "independent Democrat" (and certified blowhard) Joe Lieberman might endorse Republican Chris Shays for the Senate next year. Then, later in the week, came word that Shays may not have the "moderate GOP" banner all to himself. In a move that would almost certainly cement Linda McMahon's grip on the GOP nomination, former Rep. Rob Simmons yanked the door back open on a possible bid, after seeming to have slammed it shut earlier in the year.
THE RACE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: Aside from the usual generic ballot stuff, we actually did get a House poll this week, albeit kind of a strange one. It is a (slightly dusty) set of numbers out of ND-AL, clearly designed to remind people that freshman Republican Rep. Rick Berg is not unbeatable in North Dakota. The poll showed Berg leading a generic Democratic challenger 44-40, a margin even weaker than his 2010 performance against longtime Democratic incumbent Earl Pomeroy. The poll was conducted by Democratic pollster Garin-Hart-Yang. UPDATE: Whoops. Apologies for the mix-up. Berg is now running for the U.S. Senate. So, this was a poll designed to show that Democrats could actually retain this seat.
Meanwhile, on the generic front, we get the weekly offering from The House of Ras, where the traditional (at least lately) big GOP edge has been whittled down to just three points (41-38) over the Democrats.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Holy redistricting, Batman! A ton of headlines on the electoral cartography front this week. Far too many to delve into here, so a list will have to suffice. Feel free to tap on the links for the latest from: Nevada, Illinois (where Jesse Jackson Jr. is suddenly pissy), Utah, Ohio (where the Dems came up with an interesting alternative), Maryland, Arizona, and New Mexico.
- Meanwhile, Texas gets its own bullet in the redistricting fest this week, because the previously passed GOP gerrymander could be in deep meadow muffins. Apparently, the star witness for the state of Texas (and, by extension, the GOP) spent a nice chunk of his testimony undermining several of the GOP claims about the inherent fairness of their maps. Republican politicos in the state, as a result, are concerned. Bwahahaha!
- Lastly, there is this, out of the heartland in IL-14: Republican Rep. Joe Walsh should probably avoid talking. About anything. Ever.
THE RACE FOR THE STATEHOUSE
AT THE POLLS: With the clock ticking until their special election showdown, Democrats released a Mellman Group poll in West Virginia which continued to show their man (acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin) with a lead over Republican Bill Maloney. If there was a bit of a cause for concern in the numbers, it was the fact that the margin (46-36) was a tad less than the last time the Dems polled the race. The last time around, Tomblin enjoyed a more decisive lead of 47-33 over the GOP challenger. That election, to allow for a permanent replacement to now-Sen. Joe Manchin, is now less than two weeks away. Finance reports filed at the end of the week showed Tomblin with about a 5-to-1 fundraising edge over Maloney.
On the 2012 electoral front, a new poll out of Washington might have painted a decent picture for the Dems as it related to the state's 12 electoral votes, but the news on the gubernatorial front is a bit less rosy. The survey, by Strategies360, showed Republican Rob McKenna with a seven-point lead over Democrat Jay Inslee (46-39). It looks like McKenna is benefitting from consolidated support (Inslee only nabs 3% of GOP voters, while McKenna gets 12% of Democrats), and an overperformance in Seattle's King County (where Inslee only leads by six).
Meanwhile, on the primary front, if any more evidence was needed that Peter Kinder is in deep, deep shit in Missouri, check out this poll from PPP. Not only did Kinder, the state's lieutenant governor, only hold a 34-14 lead over the proverbial "some dude" (Bill Randles), but when paired against a generic Republican primary challenge, he trailed by double digits (35-22). Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon must be torn between laughing at the plight of his rival, and praying he survives until the GOP primary, since previously released polling showed Nixon obliterating Kinder in a head-to-head.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Voters in West Virginia (where the special gubernatorial election is October 4th) can head to the polls now. Early voting began midweek, and continues until Oct. 1. Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) is hoping to hold the statehouse for the Dems against Republican Bill Maloney.
- Could a slick attempt at gerrymandering give Democrats a semi-legit candidate for Governor? In North Dakota, the GOP map of the state Senate attempted to tweak the nose of Minority Leader Ryan Taylor by drawing him with another Democrat. So now Taylor may forgo another legislative bid, opting for the gubernatorial race, instead.
- Meanwhile, getting a bit deeper into the statehouse electoral picture, a pivotal special election for a seat in the Iowa state senate now has its candidates. Democrats, as expected, went with former television anchor Liz Mathis. Republicans, for their part, countered with local county party co-chair Cindy Golding. The election, to be held on November 8th, will determine partisan control of the state Senate.
- Finally, in another bit of 2011 legislative news, a massive bummer for Democrats and track & field fans in New Jersey. The U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, unexpectedly, vacated a previous decision to allow Carl Lewis to be the Democratic nominee for a state senate seat in the Garden State. Lewis, for his part, elected on Friday not to appeal the ruling, adding that he might seek the seat again in 2013.