Two months ago I wrote The Next Battle For Marriage Equality Will Take Place in the Snows of New Hampshire. I was right at the time, but a new development in Iowa has made that diary, shall we say, inoperative.
On November 8th, 2011, a special election will be held for the Iowa Senate. What happened, and why does it affect marriage equality in Iowa?
On September 16th, Swati Dandekar, a Democrat in the State Senate, announced that she was resigning to accept an appointment from Iowa's Republican Governor Terry Branstad to the Iowa Utilities Board, thereby triggering the special election. Should Republicans win that election, the State Senate would be deadlocked at 25-25. In that situation Senate Majority Leader Gronstal may no longer be able to prevent a bill putting a constitutional amendment outlawing same-sex marriage on the ballot from being voted on in the Iowa Senate, as he did in two previous Senate sessions.
As reported by the Des Moines Register:
Gov. Terry Branstad will appoint a Marion senator and Democrat to the Iowa Utilities Board, a move that leaves open a Republican-leaning seat and a chance for the GOP to lock up the Senate in a tie 25 to 25 split...
All 24 Republicans are in favor of the amendment ((to ban same-sex marriage)) and a few conservative Democrats are on board. Gronstal has said he will refuse to call the issue up but with a 25-to-25 split, he may no longer be able to hold the line, noted Tim Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa.
No one knows exactly what will happen if the Senate were to reconvene with a 25-25 tie in January, 2013. The last time it happened there were two co-majority leaders, they split the responsibility week by week, and they agreed not to bring up legislation for consideration unless both agreed. The current Senate minority leader has said that he would never agree to the latter provision, according to Troy Price, director of One Iowa, an LGBT organization fighting to preserve marriage equality in Iowa.
It takes a majority to pass legislation -- there is no tie-breaking provision. And it presumably takes a majority to change the rules of the Iowa Senate. So it's just not clear how the Senate would operate were the Republicans to win the special election, but Democrats and LGBT advocates are operating on the theory that they'd rather not find out.
Looking at worst case, if the amendment were to pass the Senate (it has already passed the Republican House), it would need to be voted on again by the next legislature before it could be put to the voters. That would not be until 2013, which would mean the amendment could appear on the ballot any time after the vote, but probably not until 2014.
The latest polling by PPP shows a closely divided electorate on the issue of same-sex marriage:
Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?
Legal: 46%
Illegal: 45%
PPP 8/23/11, 798 Iowa voters
As does earlier polling by Seltzer:
If there were a vote on a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage, do you think you would vote in favor or against changing the law so that same-sex marriages are no longer allowed in Iowa, or would you not vote?
In favor of constitutional amendment: 35%
Against constitutional amendment: 38%
Would not vote: 25%
Selzer & Co for Des Moines Register, 2/16/11, 800 Iowan adults
How does the Senate race itself look?
The seat is the 18th Senate district, which Dandekar won in 2008 by a significant margin, 52% - 44%. Had the race taken place in 2010 it might have been a different story of course; on the other hand, 2011 may be a far cry from the Tea Party frenzy of 2010. Registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, but only by a tiny margin:
Iowa's 18th Senate District... encompasses suburban and rural areas outside Cedar Rapids, the state's second largest city.
Iowa Politics notes that the district is very much in play for both parties. As of Sept. 1, Republicans had 15,972 registered voters in that district, while Democrats had 15,759... Independents topped both parties with 19,873 voters, according to data from the Iowa Secretary of State's office.
The Republican candidate has already been selected, and the Democratic candidate is all but certain as of this writing, but will be formally selected on September 28th. From the Iowa Independent's description of the candidates:
For the Democrats, Liz Mathis, a candidate with a lot of name recognition:
Liz Mathis, who is best known in eastern Iowa as a former news anchor for both KCRG-TV and KWWL-TV, announced Tuesday that she will seek the Democratic nomination. She served as a reporter, producer and anchor at KCRG from 1998 to 2007, and now co-owns the advertising agency, ME&V, with her husband, Mark. Prior to working with KCRG, she served 16 years with KWWL in Waterloo, where she became the first woman to co-anchor the evening news...
In addition to the family-run business, Mathis works for Four Oaks, a child welfare and juvenile justice agency, and the Affordable Housing Network and Iowa KidsNet, which are affiliates, as chief information officer. She oversees legislative advocacy, public relations, marketing and development. She serves on the Ohnward Bank board of directors, and sits on the Wartburg College Board of Regents.
"We need new policies that will help our Main Street businesses thrive, bring in business and spur job growth in our local communities," Mathis said as part of her announcement statement. "My husband and I have experienced that first-hand in our family's business. That's one of many reasons I'm running. We also need to stop short-changing our educational system and we need to address support of our area's most vulnerable children who are affected by poverty and neglect. I am passionate about those things."
For the Republicans, Cindy Golding, a local businesswoman and co-chair of the Linn County GOP:
Golding and her husband, Joe, own and operate a number of small businesses including C and J Investment that manages residential, commercial and agricultural property, Sweet Maple Farms, an organic farming operation and Advanced Resources, which provides training for non-profit organizations around the world. The businesses have increased employment from 12 to 18 over the past year, she said.
Golding, who described herself as a "conservative republican, fiscally and socially, wants to serve in the Senate to help Branstad reset the state's agenda.
As a member of the National Federation of Small Businesses and the Farm Bureau political action committee, Golding has worked on legislative issues.
"I think I can make a difference in Des Moines," she said. "I've had lots of practice trying to guide legislation as a business owner and farmer."
Golding, who worked as a research chemist before moving to Iowa in 1985, sought the GOP nomination in 2002 for the House seat now held by House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, R-Hiawatha.
Democrats across the nation should be concerned about this election: since Iowa's Governor is Republican and the House is controlled by Republicans, the Iowa Senate is the only thing standing against a Tea Party-based legislative nightmare descending on Iowa like it did in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and New Hampshire.
I can't find a website for Liz Mathis, but you can donate to One Iowa, Iowa's largest LGBT organization, to help them do what they can to hold that Senate seat and prevent a ballot initiative from reaching the ballot in 2014, or hopefully ever. As Troy Price, One Iowa's Executive Director put it
this is expected to be the most expensive legislative race in Iowa's history.
I am assured by Mr. Price that pretty much all monies donated to One Iowa at this time will be going towards their effort to hold this Senate seat.
10:35 PM PT: You can also donate here
Tue Sep 27, 2011 at 9:11 AM PT: An we now have an Act Blue page for Liz Mathis
Tue Sep 27, 2011 at 9:12 AM PT: And Liz Mathis now has a website