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Leading Off:

OH-03: Brian Hester at Plunderbund provides some helpful background on that seemingly inexplicable appointment Jennifer Brunner received from Republican Gov. John Kasich earlier this week — and utterly rips into her while he's at it. Brunner, you'll recall, ran in the Democratic Senate primary last year, losing to Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher. More recently, her name has been bandied about as a possible candidate in the redrawn 3rd CD, based in Columbus. Given her apparent interest in staying active in Democratic politics, the Kasich hook-up seemed weird, to say the least.

But it turns out that earlier this year, Brunner — who had always cast herself as a progressive outsider firebrand — seems to have undergone a bizarre conversion. This quote absolutely disgusted me:

“Not everyone agrees with those changes, but he’s making an effort. You can tell that he cares.” […] Kasich is “dedicated to reforming Ohio,” Brunner said.

Does that not make you throw up in your mouth? "Dedicated to reforming Ohio?" More like destroying every progressive hope and dream. And Brunner's defense of Kasich didn't stop there. As Hester details, she also took to Facebook to suck up to the governor, after her supporters called her out. So it's hard not to see a link between Brunner's grotesque ass-kissing and her subsequent gift from Kasich. (Hester, by the way, was an early backer of Brunner.) This is just all so vile. And I'm guessing this is enough to turn most Democrats off to a possible Brunner run in OH-03 entirely.

Senate:

FL-Sen: Connie Mack is a freakazoid. Earlier this year, the Republican congressman was widely expected to announce a run for Senate but then changed his mind at the last second. As Republican unhappiness with their crop of candidates grew over the summer, though, Mack was approached once more and reiterated that he wouldn't run. Now, this:

He sounded a slightly different note, however, in an interview with the Tribune editorial board Monday.

"I don't have any intention to run for the Senate," he said, but added, "I'm looking at all the candidates just like everyone else and looking for one to distinguish himself … to stand out. I would have thought by now that one would."

Asked whether he'd reconsider if that doesn't change, he responded, "My intentions right now are to remain where I am." But when a questioner suggested he wasn't ruling out the idea, he responded, "I'll leave that up to your interpretation."

Seriously, what the…? Anyhow, the same piece also reports that Republicans are trying to recruit two other men: former state Senate President Tom Lee and former St. Petersburg mayor Rick Baker. Neither has ruled out a run.

HI-Sen: I'm still trying to figure out how the hell conservaDem Ed Case plans to win the primary. I bring this head-scratcher up yet again because the Hawaii Government Employees Association just announced it's supporting Rep. Mazie Hirono, which just adds to her already-considerable pile of endorsements from serious establishment organizations. (The HGEA is described as "the state's largest public-sector labor union.") The last line of the writeup amuses me: "Case has said he is comfortable taking his campaign message directly to rank-and-file union members." That's one of those lines like, "Our supporters don't care how much money we raise" and "the only poll which matters is the one on election day." You know, loser-talk.

WA-Sen: Heh. GOP state Sen. Michael Baumgartner asked his Twitter followers yesterday what they thought of him possibly running for Senate. PubliCola took notice and saw that he only got two bites: one re-tweet and one person saying it would be her "dream come true." What's actually even funnier about this is that the latter account is clearly satirical. (Sample tweet: "Did you know our school students are not allowed to say the PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE unless they say it in an ironic fashion!?!?") Ouch.

WI-Sen: Ordinarily I wouldn't bother saying anything when a list of state senators endorses a US Senate candidate, but I was amused to see this list of Republican legislators backing Tommy Thompson, mostly on account of the references to "former senator Randy Hopper and former senator Dan Kapanke."

Gubernatorial:

MI-Gov: Efforts to recall GOP Gov. Rick Snyder have come up short. In the end, organizers were only able to collection about 500,000 signatures, half of the 1.1 million they needed to put Snyder's name on the ballot for a recall election.

WV-Gov: Sen. Joe Manchin has previously recorded phone calls for Dem Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin; now he's appearing with his successor in a final-stretch TV ad. Remember, election day is Tuesday, Oct. 4.

House:

KS-04: I don't think this would be newsworthy with just about any other member of Congress, but perhaps Gov. Sam Brownback's endorsement of fellow Republican Rep. Mike Pompeo may help stave off a primary. I'm still waiting to hear what 2010 candidate Wink Hartman's gonna do, though.

NY-09: We previously mentioned that Democratic Assemblyman Rory Lancman started going after newly-elected GOP Rep. Bob Turner the moment he took office; now, Colin Campbell flags an unusually candid tidbit Lancman offered on a recent radio show:

Between now and when the lines are being drawn, nobody knows what could happen and at the end of the day nobody knows who is going to be drawing those lines.

But it is extremely important to me that my Congress Member represent my values on Israel and on many, many other issues. You can be certain that I’ll be doing everything I can to make sure that my Congressman does so. Whether or not that’s me, I guess time will tell.

But if I felt I had to be the person who had to make that race, I wouldn’t be shy or reluctant to do it.

I almost hope this district survives just so that Lancman can pummel the hell out of Turner.

OR-01: At yesterday's Democratic debate hosted by the AFL-CIO, all three candidates were asked about their positions on trade. Jeff Mapes at The Oregonian has a good writeup, and Kari Chisholm at Blue Oregon pulls out the key parts. Suzanne Bonamici went very wobbly:

Bonamici refused to take a stand on the proposed trade agreements at a forum held during the labor federation's annual convention in Eugene. [...]

"I'm not telling the unions I'll oppose the trade agreements and I'm not telling Nike that I'll support them, either...I know how critically important they are to the businesses in the district and I know what a concern they are to the unions, so I'm very carefully weighing the policy. Obviously, I'll have a position on that at some point."

By contrast, both Brad Avakian and Brad Witt announced their firm support for labor's views on trade. Avakian:

Avakian told the AFL-CIO that the "people of Northwest Oregon really deserve to know where every candidate on this stage stands on this important issue" and said his opposition to the trade pacts was clear.

"I say no to any trade agreement that is going to take a job away from an American worker and ship it overseas," Avakian said.

And Witt:

"You can trust that I will uphold organized labor's position on fair trade because I have lived and breathed fair trade for 30 years," he said.

TX-30: The always-excellent Charles Kuffner adds one more race to the list of CBC members receiving bona fide challenges this cycle. State Rep. Barbara Mallory Caraway filed paperwork with the FEC a couple of weeks ago to take on Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson. Says Kuff (via email):

I don't know much about Caraway's legislative record, but she made news in a not-good way a few months ago. As for EBJ, she's had some ethical issues to deal with — see here. The Dallas Morning News endorsed her opponent as a result of that in 2010, then rescinded it after the dude made some truly wackjob statements about President Obama. Point being, this may be one to watch.

WI-02: EMILY's List just added state Rep. Kelda Roys to their "on the list" list — a step below their full endorsement level. As some commenters have noted, it'll be interesting to see how the Democratic primary plays out between Roys getting the backing of women's groups and fellow state Rep. Mark Pocan securing a lot of support from GLBT organizations.

Other Races:

Special Elections: A quick update on Tuesday night's action from Johnny L-T:

South Carolina HD-100: As expected, this was a Republican hold; Edward Southard defeated Tonia Aiken-Taylor by a 60-40 margin.

WI Sup. Ct.: Wisconsin's Government Accountability Board just concluded its investigation into Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus's actions on the night of the infamous April Supreme Court election and found that she violated state law by failing to post precinct-level returns — but also concluded that her actions were not willful and therefore did not rise to the level of criminal misconduct. They've basically ordered her not to fuck up the February primary, but that's kind of like telling someone to sleep faster: how can an incompetent not be incompetent?

Grab Bag:

Arizona: A group in Arizona is trying to push a ballot initiative that would switch the state to the kind of "top-two" primary system used in California and Washington. Organizers are trying to get the measure on the ballot for Nov. 2012 and need about a quarter million signatures to do so. All I can say is that I hate top-two. Among other serious flaws, it pretty much eliminates the possibility of bouncing an incumbent via a primary in all but the safest districts.

Indiana: A federal judge just ruled that Indiana's law prohibiting out-of-state robocalls (which had been zealously enforced by the state AG) is in fact trumped by a more lenient federal law. (Lawyers call this doctrine "pre-emption.") The suit was brought by a right-wing group called Patriotic Veterans, which is in the practice of making your standard support-this-oppose-that type of robocalls (mostly opposing "Obamacare," according to their website). But the ruling could have broader implications: namely, it might open the door for robopollsters to start surveying Indiana again.

Pennsylvania: National Popular Vote, the organization pushing state-level legislation to award electoral votes to candidate who gets the most votes nationwide, just launched a ten-day advertising campaign consisting of print and radio ads in Pennsylvania. The effort is, of course, aimed at pushing back against the (now-foundering) GOP plan to distribute the state's electoral votes by congressional district. No word on the size of the buy.

Redistricting Roundup:

MS Redistricting: The Mississippi Republican Party has gone to court asking federal judges to draw a new congressional map, saying that they don't think the legislature will be able to finish the task in time. The legislature doesn't reconvene until Jan. 3, and the candidate filing deadline is on Jan 13. I'm a little surprised to see the GOP do this, since Republicans have been fervently hoping to take control of the state House this November, something they have an excellent chance of doing. That would give them the trifecta and the ability to draft whatever map they please. (And they could just push the filing deadline later.) Then again, there's not much upside for them: They control three of the state's congressional seats and can't really touch the fourth, since it's a majority-minority district protected by the VRA. A special session is possible, but Gov. Haley Barbour says he'll only call one if an agreement is reached in advance.

UT Redistricting: The legislature's redistricting committee finally settled on a single map (they'd previously whittled down their list to six). Needless to say, it's a "pizza slice" map — and it screws Democrats hard. You can check out the plan here.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Sour grapes is the true renewable energy source (7+ / 0-)

    I don't know anything about Fisher but it did seem to me that Brunner was somewhat more in love with herself than the politician norm.   She's probably having a hard time coping with the fact that she lost the primary.

    The Rent Is Too Damn High Party feels that if you want to marry a shoe, I'll marry you. --Jimmy McMillan

    by Rich in PA on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 05:38:16 AM PDT

  •  It's too bad really (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, Christopher Walker, MichaelNY

    She was one of the few people that gave me hope for Ohio's future. I'm down to Sherrod Brown being the only Ohio politician I fully support. I would say Kucinich too but I don't see him being around after this term.

    When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace. - Jimi Hendrix

    by Herse182 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 05:46:01 AM PDT

    •  Brunner (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, James Allen, MichaelNY

      hindsight makes me wonder if perhaps the contrast with the previous SoS, the venal, corrupt, & incompetent  Ken Blackwell, added a lustre to this politician that was exaggerated at the time.  

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 07:32:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Tim Ryan? (4+ / 0-)

      "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

      by xcave on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:39:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  what's wrong with betty sutton? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, drhoosierdem, SLDemocrat

      18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:49:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I like her. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, jncca

        She isn't a bomb thrower and has been a good progressive advocate.

        Male, 14, TX-22 (previously TX-7)

        by SLDemocrat on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 04:36:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  she's my favorite in the delegation (0+ / 0-)

          fudge--ethics issues
          kucinich--supports dictators
          kaptur and ryan--pro life

          18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 05:18:37 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Ethics issues? (0+ / 0-)

            19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

            by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 05:21:45 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  yes (0+ / 0-)

              http://www.cleveland.com/...

              This is an ethics issue.

              18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

              by jncca on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 05:32:54 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  She doesn't have the issue. (0+ / 0-)

                A member of her staff was investigated by the independent office that investigates members of Congress currently.
                She just wants the process fairly applied.
                No ethics issue in that.  She thinks the process is abused.

                Last year, the Office of Congressional Ethics found that Fudge's chief of staff, Dawn Kelly Mobley, "improperly influenced" information that a group called Carib News Foundation provided to the House Ethics Committee. The Ethics Committee was trying to decide whether a yearly Caribbean trip the group sponsored for Congressional Black Caucus members violated a newly implemented ban on corporate-funded travel.

                NO CE/CW. NO UNION BUSTING

                by Aeolos on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:43:34 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  if you read further (0+ / 0-)

                  the article states that this would basically gut the ethics committee.

                  we need a much stronger ethics committee in washington, not a weaker one.

                  anyone who tries to weaken it deserves a primary.

                  obviously fudge is no charlie rangel, maxine waters, or pete visclosky, but still

                  18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

                  by jncca on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:34:24 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  She's not being investigated. (0+ / 0-)

                    She has no ethics issue.  She's challenging the process and would like to improve it so it's not turned into another vehicle i.e. Kenneth Star to harass members of Congress and their staff by the operatives looking to play Gotcha! politics.

                    I'm with her on that.

                    NO CE/CW. NO UNION BUSTING

                    by Aeolos on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:41:42 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

  •  did anyone else see Obama's comment about how (11+ / 0-)

    he'll embrace being called a warrior for the working class?  This guy is going to win re-election.  I think his team has seen the light.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 05:57:38 AM PDT

    •  Hmmm... (4+ / 0-)

      I still think he's more likely than not to win re-election, but I don't think it's because of that simple reindentification of himself.  Were you being sarcastic?  I honestly can't tell.

    •  The campaign has just started (5+ / 0-)

      There are a lot of hours between now and November 2012

      •  I'm not allowed to make a prediction? (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        andgarden, dc1000, MichaelNY, askew

        I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

        by James Allen on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:29:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think he meant that, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          but I tend to agree. Not everyone who poisitions themselves as the "warrior" for the middle class wins.

          I think the thing he meant was that just because he said that doesn't make him a "lock" for re-election like your comment seemed to imply.

          I'd say his odds for winning re-election stand at 50/50 atm.

          DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

          by aggou on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:25:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  it means that the Obama campaign is (5+ / 0-)

            shifting strategy.  I think it's a winning strategy.  You don't have to agree.

            I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

            by James Allen on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:48:02 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  i'm not sure if it's a winning strategy (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              SaoMagnifico

              but he had three strategies:

              run on a record of bipartisan compromises and successes (best strategy, but the House won't allow this)

              run as a populist fighter (middle option, best option left)

              run as a DLC/corporate Democrat at a time when everyone's angry and people want taxes raised on the wealthy (worst option)

              18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

              by jncca on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:51:48 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  As always, so much depends on the economy. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

      Unemployment claims declined sharply today to 391,000, falling below that kind of, sort of magic 400,000 mark. That's a good sign, but will it be followed by stronger employment growth?

      If we get up to an average of 200,000 or so jobs per month long enough for him to make the case that things are better, I think it will win win fairly easily. (Anything higher just pads his margin of victory; something much higher means a massive route.) We do need to create more than that, obviously, but I'd guess that the 200,000 or so figure, which is what we were seeing in the beginning of the year, would at least make people feel more hopeful. And who knows, perhaps that would release some pent up demand, if any, leading slowly but surely to ever higher job growth--say, 220,000 jobs per month rather than 200,000.

      He's doing the bare minimum by campaigning on the jobs bill. He should keep doing it. But will it pass? I'm not sure. I'd like to think the Republicans are crazy and callous enough to let the payroll tax cut expire, but every time I expect them to stop the madness, they double down.

  •  Used to really like JBrunner (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

    Now, she's my prime suspect.

    I refuse to believe that Corporations are People until Texas executes one.

    by thenekkidtruth on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:05:38 AM PDT

  •  Looks like Jim Matheson (9+ / 0-)

    Should give the Utah GOP what they deserve and go for the Senate.  It'd be a long shot, but probably not a much longer shot than running for re-election to the House.  After all, most polling so far has shown him within striking distance of the lead.  With a little bit of a democratic swing in the national mood and perhaps some depressed Mormon turnout following Mitt Romney's inevitable religious tarring and feathering in the republican presidential primary, Matheson might be able to pull it off.

    •  First off (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Tiger in BlueDenver

      we need to see the Dem avg performance in each district and see if there is one that he can run in.  After all, the GOP tried to gerrymander him out in 2001, but he found a place to settle in and win.  His current district gave Obama 39% of the vote compared to 35% for the state as a whole.

      'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

      by KingofSpades on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:14:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  i'm not confident (0+ / 0-)

      mitt romney will be tarred and feathered for his mormonism.

      there are enough reasons why he's vulnerable already

      18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:52:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A mess is coming in the primary calendar. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, sulthernao, itskevin, askew

    http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/...
    RNC says that any state that violates party rules will lose 50% of its delegates.

    'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

    by KingofSpades on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:12:33 AM PDT

    •  If that happens, does the GOPer who wins... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      judyms9, itskevin

      ...a rule-violating primary get to hire Lanny Davis to shill on tv for the delegates s/he doesn't get?

      "[S]ince Obama keeps talking nonsense about economics, at what point do we stop giving him credit for actually knowing better? Maybe at some point we have to accept that he believes what he’s saying." --Paul Krugman

      by GreenSooner on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:14:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sorry, but what? (0+ / 0-)

        I don't remember the 2008 primaries well (I was busy in my senior year of high school).

        'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

        by KingofSpades on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:15:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Michigan held a Dem primary that broke rules. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dc1000, wsexson, Tiger in BlueDenver

          Most everyone but HRC refused to compete...so HRC won, resulting in a long controversy over the delegates that dragged out into May or June, when Obama's delegate was so clearly insurmountable that he could compromise with the Clinton camp on the Michigan delegates.

          It fell to Davis to make the specious arguments for Clinton along the way.  Like most messaging from that campaign, it didn't go very well.

          "[S]ince Obama keeps talking nonsense about economics, at what point do we stop giving him credit for actually knowing better? Maybe at some point we have to accept that he believes what he’s saying." --Paul Krugman

          by GreenSooner on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:21:44 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  oops.... (0+ / 0-)
            when Obama's delegate lead was so clearly insurmountable that he could compromise with the Clinton camp on the Michigan delegates.

            "[S]ince Obama keeps talking nonsense about economics, at what point do we stop giving him credit for actually knowing better? Maybe at some point we have to accept that he believes what he’s saying." --Paul Krugman

            by GreenSooner on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:22:27 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Clinton (0+ / 0-)

            Clinton left her name on the ballot - along with a few other candidates - but neither she nor Obama actually and actively competed on the ground in Michigan to the chagrin of both their supporters.  I remember that time quite well, and with a lot of anger with how the situation was handled all around.  Needless to say it was a mess, but if we had to do it all over again I still support us challenging the ridiculous party primary schedules.

            •  Rules are Rules (0+ / 0-)

              Like so much else about how we choose presidents--from the electoral college on down--the major parties' primary systems are ridiculous. Still, they're national organizations that should be able to decide how they select their presidential nominees (within the limits of the Constitution of course....the GOP can't hold a whites-only primary, e.g.).

              The rational system would be a single, national primary with IRV.

              Anything else will be arbitrary and unfair to many states and voters.

              But nothing is solved by ignoring the rules.

              Michigan knew exactly what it was doing and they should have paid the price for it.

              "[S]ince Obama keeps talking nonsense about economics, at what point do we stop giving him credit for actually knowing better? Maybe at some point we have to accept that he believes what he’s saying." --Paul Krugman

              by GreenSooner on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:34:26 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Hey (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                GreenSooner, dc1000

                We were willing to take the punishment, which is why I say I'd support the same thing over again.  I didn't say the punishment was unfair; we knew what we were doing.

              •  Rules (0+ / 0-)

                They were rules that weren't enforced equally.  Iowa and New Hampshire were still allowed to move their dates.   After MI and FL were stripped of their delegates, the situation was remedied.  For some reason, Iowa and NH were allowed to ignored the agreed upon schedule.  There was no need for them to move their dates after the MI/FL primaries were ruled to be void.  

            •  IIRC (0+ / 0-)

              The Michigan-Florida debacle was the stated reason for the formation of PUMA

              "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

              by xcave on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:43:56 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  you'd think (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      this primary mess, if anything would exemplify why the markets need at least a LITTLE discipline from an outside force.  no, no, keep letting states decide their primaries whenever.  I can't wait to have the 2016 primaries start in late 2013.

      Help, help, I'm in Connecticut!- Foamy the Squirrel.

      by DougTuttle on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:31:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Why does Florida always want (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, askew

      more of a say in the primary. Doesn't it get enough attention already?

      "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

      by xcave on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:42:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Iowa (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Inoljt

        Why does Iowa, a state that's not very representative of the US, think it should always get the first word in who should be our president?

        •  The standard justifications (0+ / 0-)

          Are Iowa's (and New Hampshire's) good-government cultures, small size, and/or high civic participation measures.  So they're theoretically places that will care about retail politicking and small-scale organization.  I'm not saying I agree with that, but that's the argument.  And, as others have said, if you consider the big early states to be Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, then it becomes somewhat more representative.

          FWIW, a favorite factoid of mine is that Latham's district in Iowa, despite in no way coming close to resembling the U.S. as a whole, is by far the closest district to the U.S. as a whole in Presidential margins over the last three Presidential elections.  I wonder if that somehow is somehow contingent on the existence of the Iowa caucuses.

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

          by Xenocrypt on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:48:29 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  "Retail politicking" (0+ / 0-)

            I've always thought that's a pretty lame argument to support (or oppose) a candidate for president, though not necessarily at other levels of government.  Just because someone may be good at handshaking or meeting with small cliques of activists (who are often wildly unrepresentative of the general public) does not make them the best candidate to lead the country.

            As for New Hampshire, nothing against the state, but is no state sales or income tax, with extraordinarily high local property taxes and often sketchy services as results, really "good government?"  If so, then what is bad?

        •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

          I just don't know why it's Florida that's out fighting the battle. I mean, god, if there's any state that's given way too much power in presidential elections...

          Just seems to strike me as more a power grab than a legitimate point on principle. If Florida actually cared about individual states having too much of an influence, they would support NPV

          "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

          by xcave on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:50:07 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  My dad wondered the same too (0+ / 0-)

          They don't have much of an urban sector, they are more agrarian the the nation is as a whole on average, etc.

          'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

          by KingofSpades on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 10:38:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I enjoyed the Wisconsin link, familiar names all! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stcroix cheesehead, itskevin
  •  WI - Senate - Kanavas passes (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    State Senator Ted Kanavas has decided against a run at Herb Kohl's open Senate seat.  No a surprising development given the GOP heavyweights already eying this seat.

    Link: http://dc.wispolitics.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:17:46 AM PDT

  •  Brunner's dead meat in the party (4+ / 0-)

    “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

    by Paleo on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:18:50 AM PDT

  •  Re: WI Senate (0+ / 0-)

    Five state senators for Tired Tommy Thompson, and they include the ones who are possibly the most to the center (such as that is in the modern republican party). Big whoop.

    I can't wait to see what their majority leader and teabagger-in-chief Scott Fitz does to them, seeing as how they've endorsed the guy running against his little brother. He's been known to use the knife against his own party members with as much (or more) enthusiasm as against Democrats.

    Mere passive citizenship is not enough. Men must be aggressive for what is right if government is to be saved from men who are aggressive for what is wrong. - Robert M. LaFollette

    by stcroix cheesehead on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:20:14 AM PDT

  •  Unfortunately, makes Kasich look moderate (5+ / 0-)

    Though he's been leading the conservative war on public employees in Ohio, this makes Kasich look moderate. He can now claim a Democratic (former) supporter.

    Brunner didn't even sell out for much. The Commission on Cultural Facilities Issues? It doesn't even have any power.

    So Kasich gets to claim Democrat support and Democrats get nothing.

    Shiite. I wish I could spend the rest of my life teaching negotiation skills to Democrats.

    Plunderbund has a further details on this disgrace.

    •  She's become a pragmatic realist. (0+ / 0-)

      Incrementally making progress back into public life in a bipartisany bigger than "politics" kinda of way.

      NO CE/CW. NO UNION BUSTING

      by Aeolos on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:38:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Brunner a big 0 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      xcave, SaoMagnifico, akadjian

      Brunner sent out an email missive this morning (I'm still on her mailing list for some reason--I voted for Fisher) which had pap like this:

      "Whether you’re a Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, Green Party member or no party, I believe we all belong to the party of 'O.' No, I’m not talking about St. Patrick’s Day or about President Obama. I’m talking about Ohio."

      So now she's in the Ohio Party? Fits right in with Kasich's TV ads about how "you know we're gonna do what's right for Ohio."

  •  I Should Have Spent the $100 I Gave (5+ / 0-)

    To Ms. Brunner on a case of wine.  At least I would have had some good times! (If an unpleasant morning.)  But now I know.

    I wonder if she did not see the writing on the wall in Ohio and took the appointment because she wanted to stay relevant and continue public service.  It might be that, in terms of statewide politics, Ohio stays in the GOP camp for the foreseeable future.

    "I'll believe that corporations are people when I see Rick Perry execute one."

    by bink on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:34:15 AM PDT

  •  How incredibly naive'. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    not2plato, SaoMagnifico, DCCyclone
    Those taking the free market view often believe they are working for the public good, but with an entirely different approach and emphasis. Sometimes you throw rocks; other times you use them to build bridges, even when rocks have been thrown at you. It’s up to each of us to decide for ourselves what we will do. I respect all of your opinions.- Jennifer Brunner

    Restricting peoples rights in arbitrary and politically motivated ways has nothing to do with "the free market".

    This is why misguided and intellectually challenged progressives can be even more dangerous than the nutjobs they mean to break bread with.

    NO CE/CW. NO UNION BUSTING

    by Aeolos on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:49:58 AM PDT

  •  MO-Sen (0+ / 0-)

    John Brunner expected to announce on Monday

    http://www.chron.com/...

    Was news yesterday here in MO

    The robb'd that smiles steals something from the thief. -- Shakespeare

    by not2plato on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:53:41 AM PDT

    •  Is he a nutter? (0+ / 0-)

      Nutter is going to win that primary.

      •  Seems likely (0+ / 0-)

        He has been a heavy contributor to Todd Akin, one of the four original Tea Party Caucus members in the house.  Akin's infamy grew this summer with his remark that "at the hear of liberalism is a hatred of God."  

        His father founded a local chapter of the Republican Assembly, which is a staunch organization that sees its role to be support for righties in primaries -- the original opponents of RINOs.  

        http://stlbeacon.org/...

        Curiously, he lives in Akin's district and will be running against him in the primary.  The third candidate, Sarah Steelman, is the only one of the three with experience running state wide.  She was state treasurer and lost in the GOP primary for governor in 08.  In a recent ppp poll, she had an 11 point lead over Akin, and Brunner barely registered with registered republican voters.  

        The scenario that is being discussed by lots of folks is that the two STLouis area males will split the eastern half of the state, while Steelman cleans up in the west and south, and pulls females from the east as well.  It seem possible that she could pull something like that off.  She is a strong campaigner despite being a weak speaker and a bit of an airhead.  

        The robb'd that smiles steals something from the thief. -- Shakespeare

        by not2plato on Sat Oct 01, 2011 at 10:39:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  ugh (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, James Allen

      I just really want a Brunner moratorium right now.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:19:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Troubled (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TLS66, dc1000, tigercourse

    I am very troubled by this attack on Jennifer Brunner. I live in Ohio, am active in my county Democratic Party and this sudden dumping on Brunner seems strange to me. I read the Plunderbund piece. There is a single writer there who seems to be trying to smear Jennifer. I don't know who that person is, so I have no reason to accept his interpretation of anything.

    It is my understanding that the seat on the Arts Commission is a Democratic seat. If Kasich had not appointed Jennifer he would have appointed some other Democrat. So, she applauded Kasich in a public venue. How would it have looked it she sat on her hands? And the comments she made about Kasich are nothing more than the typical non-inflammatory statements of a person who would like to get elected again in Ohio.

    I do know that Jennifer was a very successful Secretary of State. She was able to fix the mess left by Blackwell, a mess that was designed to favor Republicans. She opened up early voting and enhanced voter registration opportunities. I consider her a committed progressive, and if she runs again for state office I will support her and vote for her.

    I don't know what's driving it, but it sure sounds to me like someone is trying to undermine her ability to run again in Ohio.

    "...in a society governed passively by free markets and free elections, organized greed always defeats disorganized democracy." Matt Taibbi

    by Getreal1246 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 07:03:44 AM PDT

  •  MA-SEN (11+ / 0-)

    I bet Warren gets asked about the red sox at some point this week...

  •  re: HI-SEN (5+ / 0-)

    I am quite content to watch Ed Case exhaust the resources and goodwill of his support base

    A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

    by Christopher Walker on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 07:37:53 AM PDT

  •  The good news about Snyder in MI is that there (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    are hints that he may not seek another term because:
    --He's taking one shot at implementing his agenda with the help of his GOP legislature.
    --He wants to teach at U of M.
    --He has no appetite for the political process.
    --He hates wearing a tie.

    Now it's up to MI Dems to come up with a solid candidate in 2014.  One can only hope it won't be Andy Dillon.

  •  God, for a minute -- more actually -- I got (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt

    Jennifer Brunner mixed up with Darcy Burner.  Too late, I already drank the whiskey.  Well at least I'm not a sad drunk any more.  lol

    . . . from Julie, Julia. "Oh, well. Boo-hoo. Now what?"

    by 88kathy on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 07:55:21 AM PDT

  •  Jobless claims fall, Q2 GDP revised up. (6+ / 0-)

    Jobless claims down to 391,000 (predictions had it at 420,000).
    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

    by KingofSpades on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:01:47 AM PDT

  •  At least it proves Kasich (4+ / 0-)

    ...has some sort of jobs program for the unemployed.

    •  Ha! (0+ / 0-)

      I don't buy that Brunner's motivation was that she "needed a job", though, like some.  She was a seemingly-successful lawyer before becoming a judge and statewide official.  But I don't know what her policy goals are outside of election-related issues, as I said yesterday.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:31:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Enthusiasm gap forming again?.... (0+ / 0-)

    DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

    by aggou on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:29:23 AM PDT

    •  Probably (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, wsexson

      the signs don't look good for Dems.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:36:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  True, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        but I thought we just had a few polls a few months ago showing it was pretty even? At least that's what I remember seeing. I could be wrong.

        DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

        by aggou on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:38:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It was.... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, geoneb

          ...and then the deb ceiling crisis hit.  PPP's last national poll in August had enthusiasm cratering to 2010 levels again.  Gallup is merely confirming that.

          Of course, none of that stuff is set in stone.  Enthusiasm, unlike the economy, is something the president can actually change on his own.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:48:38 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  and I do think that (0+ / 0-)

            whatever you think of the WH's operations in general, they do know how to switch into "campaign mode".

            However, I'm not sure how avoidable it is for the party out of power in the relevant election to have more enthusiasm.  Has there been any study of this, or of the enthusiasm gap in general?  

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

            by Xenocrypt on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:52:19 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  According to the graphs... (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Xenocrypt, andgarden, itskevin

              Enthusiasm was basically even on election day in 2000 and 2004, and we had the edge in 2008.  Obama needs will need to rally the troops if he doesn't want to be on the McCain side of things in 2012.

              GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

              by LordMike on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 10:02:33 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Interesting (0+ / 0-)

                Of course, we don't know anything about what the enthusiasm gap on election day will be.  But I do wonder if Democrats had an enthusiasm edge in the fall of 2003, or if Republicans had one in the fall of 1995--when they could look forward to voting against an incumbent.  I would be surprised if Democrats didn't have one in 1983, given Reagan's (if I'm getting this right) then-lousy polling.

                26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

                by Xenocrypt on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 10:06:48 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Obama's starting to look even more precarious (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                SaoMagnifico

                He's shifted gears but the polls haven't followed. And despite my predictions, Republicans appear to be down to. . .Romney.

                Ok, so I read the polls.

                by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 10:11:45 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  The polls will not follow the shifting gears... (0+ / 0-)

                  In fact, him remaining stable in the polls suggests that he's doing better.  In the past, every time Obama's started to act like a Democrat, he's taking a hit in the polls.  It's one of his handicaps (which is why the republicans exploit the "bipartisanship" thing).  The fact that he's been stable is good.

                  Obama's caused a LOT of damage to his base... Plouffe's DLC lunacy has really, really hurt the President's base of support.  And just like when you've found your spouse/significant other cheating on you, it takes a very long time and a lot of work to trust them again.

                  Obama is only starting to repair the damage, and it's going to take a lot of time and energy on his part.

                  GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                  by LordMike on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 10:21:05 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Quote (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  itskevin, Tiger in BlueDenver, askew

                  "Obama's starting to look even more precarious." Compared to when? His approvals are in the low 40s but have been for a while now. The trial heats are the same as ever. Basically tied with Romney as he was a year ago. And STILL ahead in OH, PA and FL despite everything.

                  “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

                  by conspiracy on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:30:18 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Compared to what I thought might happen (0+ / 0-)

                    if he improved his contrasts with Republicans.

                    Ok, so I read the polls.

                    by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:31:37 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  As DCCyclone has said, (7+ / 0-)

                      this process involves lots of time and effort. It's not something that was likely to give him a bump right away, if only because most people aren't paying attention to stuff like we are doing. He's not at the point yet where everyone and their mother knows that he wants to pass the American Jobs Act, but in a few months, he should be.

                      •  Three weeks on from his address to Congress (0+ / 0-)

                        And...crickets. Why didn't Harry Reid open debate the day after? No wonder people disapprove of the clowns on Capitol Hill.

                        “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

                        by conspiracy on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 12:00:31 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Crickets in regards to what? (0+ / 0-)
                          •  No vote (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            SaoMagnifico

                            No floor debate. Nothing even scheduled as yet. I thought it was an imperative? Inaction makes the president's speech look purely political. As I said, Harry Reid should have made it the top priority right away. Seriously, if Obama loses then Congressional Democrats of whatever stripe are as much to blame as their Republican colleagues.

                            “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

                            by conspiracy on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 12:28:43 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  Legislative strategy is long-term effort... (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          itskevin

                          ...just as the messaging strategy on this.

                          You hold the vote and it goes down, you''re already down to Plan B.  You didn't even get the benefit of the national TV ad campaign the DNC is running before it's moot.

                          Reid is playing this right, I can't imagine the Administration has a problem with what he's doing.

                          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                          by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:36:52 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                    •  So you mean (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      itskevin, DCCyclone

                      You thought his job approval would go up and with it his poll leads? I think the only thing that will do that in the short term is an improving economy. Over the length of a presidential campaign those contrasts may well bear fruit, at least in a tight race. But I'm less convinced than most it can be enough. If the fundamentals are so strong it won't matter even when people don't like the alternative. We saw that last year and to an extent in New York the other week.

                      “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

                      by conspiracy on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:57:35 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

          •  The last weekly poll PPP asked it 9/15-18 (5+ / 0-)

            Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not at all excited about voting in the 2012 elections? Very excited, Somewhat excited, Not at all excited.

            Democrat 54 26 20
            Republican 53 27 20

            “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

            by conspiracy on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 10:57:44 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I dismiss some of Gallup's stuff lately (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin

              They had Obama down in the 40s with Hispanics for job approval.

              No one else had that.  And it makes no sense even within Gallup's own framework showing Obama around 40 for overall job approval.

              There always is a double-digit gap between Obama's or almost any Democrat's overall numbers and his Hispanic numbers.  Anytime you see a single-digit gap, be suspicious.  Obama got 53% of the popular vote last time, and 67% of Hispanics.  Look at Senate and Governor's races, and you see gaps as big or larger.

              If Obama really is in the 40s with Hispanics, then he's in the low 30s overall, which no one says.

              All this is to say that I'm suspicious of Gallup showing an enthusiasm gap.  And on top of suspicion of their polling on this, I also pointed out in another comment elsewhere that our side will match theirs in enthusiasm by voting time.  It's a Presidential election with too much at stake, and people will decide to care once it matters, and once we have an opponent to be scared of (we don't yet, that's a big factor).

              43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:41:49 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  That can change easily. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, jj32, itskevin, askew

      It hasn't been a good few weeks for Democrats, to say the least. But how they feel now isn't necessarily indicative of how they--how we--will feel in a few weeks, let alone a few months.

      Besides that, they need a candidate to rally behind. Anger and hatred towards Obama will only get them so far.

    •  This is over a year before the election (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, DCCyclone

      Considering that everyone in the GOP field is so out there, that's motivation enough to vote.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 10:12:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not really surprising (5+ / 0-)

      The GOP has a primary going on. That is going to increase enthusiasm.

      •  This is a great explanation! (6+ / 0-)

        Most people aren't paying attention to politics right now, especially Democrats because we don't have a competitive primary like 2008. Once Obama start's reaching out to presidential year voters and the media narrative switches to the general election, I think we'll see enthusiasm even up again.

        21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

        by JonathanMN on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:01:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I hadn't thought about that. (0+ / 0-)

        That would explain this jump recently. I guess Republicans are finally taking notice of the primary.

        DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

        by aggou on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:27:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Maybe (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, askew

      but Gallup doesn't usually poll this early. And if you look at presidential enthusiasm polls in presidential years, it fluctuates like crazy. Democratic enthusiasm in 2008 went from +68 to +12 at one point. And Democrats were first very enthusiastic in 2004, but it went south as election season approached.

      I'm not saying this is good news. But even Gallup itself said it's not predictive of anything as of yet.

      Do I expect 2008-esque enthusiasm? No I do not. Obama is an incumbent who can no longer make lofty, hopeful promises without reality getting in the way.

      People panic too much on this site.

      by thematt523 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:29:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It was even by election day both in 2000 (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        andgarden, thematt523, askew, DCCyclone

        And 2004. In the former it started out similarly to this poll. The two are of course comparable in that there is a Democrat in the White House. That being said, Gallup are notoriously volatile and lately I think they are less reliable too.

        During the 2008 campaign their tracker and Rasmussen's constantly had McCain doing better than everybody else. They then offered three different turnout models toward election day which was a massive cop-out. And then they overshot the Obama margin in their final poll.

        Their final generic ballot poll for 2010 had the GOP winning by 15 points when they actually won by 7. Newport then tried to claim such a big miss meant nothing because they were mostly right with the trajectory. This despite the fact most pollsters got pretty close to the mark. Except Rasmussen of course.

        Now look at their current approval tracker. They have Obama consistently lower than everybody but internet pollsters. Historical prestige should not be mistaken for accuracy. I think the media in particular do this with Gallup.

        “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

        by conspiracy on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:42:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yup, 2000 looks like an interesting comparison (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, SaoMagnifico

          And in that context, you might say that Obama is doing reasonable well.

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:45:04 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Gallup in 2000 and 2004 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          may have shown the election even (and thus nearly correct) by election day, but there were a lot of detours along the way.  In 2000 their tracker jerked wildly in both directions, often because of trivia (Bush's supposed subliminal advertising, Gore's sighing in debate.)

          In 2004 it was usually more Republican than the average IIRC, which perhaps due to historical prestige, as you indicate, led the media to spin the race accordingly.  Gallup, for instance, found Kerry got no "bounce" from the Democratic convention (he actually lost a point or two according to them) and so then the media went into a spate of "no convention bounce" stories, despite other poll findings to the contrary.  And in mid-September they pulled out a joker in which Bush had a 54-40 or so lead (others had Bush ahead at that point, but not by nearly that much) and the media drooled for days over the massive Bush landslide that was supposedly imminent.

  •  Bachmann despises the Arab Spring (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000

    She also apparently supported the Shah in Iran, too.
    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/...
    She loves dictators.

    'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

    by KingofSpades on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 10:54:17 AM PDT

  •  PPP's Florida poll is worrying (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico

    for the following reason: look at the President's standing with whites. He's below 40% against most Republicans.

    White voters are NOT in principle more valuable than other voters, but their sample size here is quite large in comparison. If Obama's numbers with hispanics are just a little bit wrong (i.e., PPP didn't sample enough Cubans), he's got a real problem.

    OTOH, if these numbers are right, we could be looking at a Florida that looks suddenly much more like North Carolina or Virginia, which would be interesting.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:07:23 AM PDT

    •  All of that said, there is NOTHING in this poll (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      that would suggest writing off Florida.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:08:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Very well said. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico

        I'd also like to ask just how many unregistered non-whites there are. According to some older Census information, there are a few hundred thousand black voters in the state. I have to think I'm either (a) looking at information that is way too old (i.e. that these people were in fact registered by the Obama campaign in 2008) or (b) there's less than meets the eye here as far as potential votes go. If not that, then I've stumbled upon something that seems to take the state out of contention for the Republicans, or at least moves it much closer to that point.

    •  Obama only needs (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, askew, DCCyclone

      about 40% of the white vote to win the state. And if Obama is in a tossup race with Romney at 40% approval nationwide, it shows Obama still has some strength.

      What does this poll say that we don't already know? That Florida was going to be competitive? Duh. Democrats haven't won Florida by double digits since Truman.

      People panic too much on this site.

      by thematt523 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:17:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He's below 40% (0+ / 0-)

        In fact, he's at 33% with whites.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:19:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He got 42% in 2008 in FL (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, SaoMagnifico

          So yeah, 33% isnt great. But still, he could probably get 39% and win the state.

          •  Yeah, I know what he got in '08 (0+ / 0-)

            This is, by any reasonable measure, a significant dropoff. And it's not just in approvals. He fails to break 40% against any Republican.

            The toplines are somewhat comforting--assuming they're right.

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:29:16 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  There is nothing eye-opening here except... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              thematt523, itskevin

              ...that PPP actually has Obama still leading Romney at all, and hitting 50 vs. Perry, in Florida which frankly has always been a tougher state for Obama than most other traditional swing states.  I'm actually encouraged by this poll.

              As far as Obama's standing with Florida whites is concerned, there's nothing eye-opening about that when Florida is a center-right swing state anyway, it's always a couple points to the right of the nation as a whole in Presidentials, and Obama's national job approvals are in the low 40s.  All that considered, Obama's standing in Florida right now doesn't concern me as anything unexpected.

              And his standing with whites is predictable, nothing new.  He can afford a point or two dropoff with them next year thanks to increasing nonwhite vote share, but yeah he needs to do better with whites to win the state.  But that's true everywhere!

              43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:46:39 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  But what is he getting (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico

          in actual elections? If it's 39%-40%, that's an appropriate threshold. If it's below, it means that the political climate isn't very good, but I don't need this poll to tell me that.

          People panic too much on this site.

          by thematt523 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:31:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  He's getting in the low-to-mid 30s (0+ / 0-)

            in head-to-heads.

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:32:31 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Then (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              SaoMagnifico

              he has some work to do, and he has time. You can't honestly expect Obama to be up big in a GOP-leaning swing state with 40% approval nationwide.

              Florida isn't going to suddenly become a Dem safe haven while everything else stands still. As Obama's approval goes up or down, it will go up and down in Florida.

              And your fear that Florida may go GOP? Guess what? That fear will occur every cycle that isn't extremely pro-Dem. And even then, it's not guaranteed.

              People panic too much on this site.

              by thematt523 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:44:54 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Even Florida's present status (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCCyclone, LordMike, thematt523

                is a big improvement for Democrats from the 1980s, when none of the three Democratic nominees broke 40% of the vote there.  Even into the 1990s, Clinton only got 39% in his first race (while he would have gotten quite a bit more without Perot, he still lost the state.)

                And remember back in the 80s California was at best a swing state and often GOP leaning, New Jersey was solid Republican for president, and even New York wasn't safe Democratic.  For all the current challenges, we've come a long way in two decades.

        •  And nothing will change at all? (0+ / 0-)

          It's certainly possible his numbers with that group won't budge for some reason, but the fact that they barely changed at all from 2004 to 2008 makes me think it's roughly fixed in the end. If not, a solid campaign of contrasts between Obama and Perry or Romney should help his numbers.

    •  The numbers dont seem that bad to me (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      thematt523, itskevin, SaoMagnifico, askew

      The sample is a bit more conservative than in 2008(51-48 Obama).

      Obama at 46% isnt great, but it's higher than most of his national approval ratings. So for him to be at 46% in a swing state like FL, during a difficult time in his presidency, strikes me as a pretty good news.

      Registering voters will be big. I think OFA already is doing that, and has been doing so for months.

      But as far as FL becoming more like VA or NC. FL has always been competitive right down to election day, and I dont think this year is any exception.

      •  Florida is always (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, DCCyclone, Inoljt

        competitive. It has been for decades. The idea that we can win Florida by a super-safe margin is a pipe-dream. The last time any Democrat won Florida by more than six points was Harry Truman. In fact, the last time it leaned more Democratic than the nation was Jimmy Carter, and those Dixiecrats that fueled it are gone.

        Even in 1964, Goldwater was very close to winning Florida. It was one of the few states that year that was actually competitive.

        So Florida is going to torture us this year, and every cycle except in GOP landslides, at which point we have bigger problems than winning Florida.

        People panic too much on this site.

        by thematt523 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:36:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, Clinton won it by just 6% in 1996 (0+ / 0-)

          after losing it in 1992(caveat, of course, being Perot on the ballot). Obama won in by 5%.

          Long term, maybe FL becomes more Dem, but for the time being, it's going to remain a pretty competitive race every four years.

          •  Obama only won (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jj32, Inoljt

            the state by less than 3 points. That shows how Republican the state is. Gore almost winning might have been a cocktease.

            With Gore having some southern appeal, and Lieberman had some Jewish appeal, it was the perfect combination for Florida.

            People panic too much on this site.

            by thematt523 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:59:31 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Like I said above, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, DCCyclone

        I'm most curious to see what the totals for unregistered non-whites are, specifically blacks. Take a look at 4b from this link, which says there are a few hundred thousand unregistered blacks in the state. I have to wonder if this is accurate information; it is is, it's as if there's nothing more involved than  finding these people, registering them, and turning them out to vote.

        •  I would be curious to see (0+ / 0-)

          His numbers with whites in the Q poll but they don't have that information (PPP are THE best at this). I wouldn't be surprised if he is doing better there despite losing to Romney by 7. Such is the fallacy of these crosstabs.

          “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

          by conspiracy on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 12:03:24 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Former felons? (0+ / 0-)

          I know there are several hundred thousand blacks in Florida who are not allowed to vote due to felony convictions.

          http://mypolitikal.com/

          by Inoljt on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:38:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  His numbers with whites aren't (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      that far off from where they were in 2008, which is very close if not exactly the same compared to what they were in 2004.

      PPP has the racial breakdown as 67/12/16/6 for whites, blacks, Hispanics, and others. This adds up to more than 100, so let me subtract one point off of the black percentage just for a worst case scenario. If the breakdown is 67/11/16/6 and he's able to get 40 percent of whites, 90 percent of blacks, and 65 percent of both Hispanics and others, he will receive 51 percent of the vote. If the sample is more like it was in 2008, which according to CNN was 71/13/14/2, he would get 50.5 percent of the vote.

      My posts with calculations tend to be a bit long, so I will stop here and simply ask, does it seem outlandish that he might get 40 percent of the white vote? A bit less than that might do, if non-white turnout is high and he gets a good percentage of that vote. Let's also remember that I only gave him 90 percent of the black vote. I don't think it's at all unreasonable to think it could be higher.

      •  The problem is that, yes, 40% (0+ / 0-)

        does look at bit unreasonable from this standpoint. And yes, that's roughly what he seems to need.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:30:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Why does it look unreasonable? (0+ / 0-)
          •  He would have to convince a huge (0+ / 0-)

            chunk of voters who don't like him or want to vote for him to change their minds. that's hard.

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:49:27 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              andgarden, itskevin

              if the economy improves, or the political climate improves some other way, you'd be amazed at how skillful he is at winning them back.

              People panic too much on this site.

              by thematt523 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:52:51 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I should be explicit here as I have been elsewhere (0+ / 0-)

                that I don't expect the economy to improve in a relevant way. That's what has me so worried.

                Ok, so I read the polls.

                by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:53:47 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Then we're screwed (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  andgarden

                  I'm sorry, but this next election cycle hinges on the economy. Obviously, it can improve enough to get Obama over the hump with enough campaigning, but if it stays where it is, more likely than not, he will lose. Plain and simple.

                  His only real shot in that case would be for a really bad GOP nominee, like Palin.

                  If you have absolutely no hope for the economy, you cannot hope for an Obama victory. If the fundamentals predict a 50-50 election, or even a 49-51 loss, Obama can easily win with campaigning. But if the fundamentals predict a 47-53 loss or beyond, we are screwed.

                  People panic too much on this site.

                  by thematt523 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 12:03:16 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  That's basically the analysis I'm arriving at (0+ / 0-)

                    I had thought that setting up a contrast with the Republicans over what to do with the economy might help. But I am starting to think that Obama has "tried that, didn't work" branded on his forehead.

                    Now, the Republicans should have the same, but it seems like they can launder themselves much more readily.

                    Ok, so I read the polls.

                    by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 12:05:05 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  No (0+ / 0-)

                      People just blame the incumbent party in bad times. And what Obama is doing certainly can't hurt. But speeches NEVER, EVER pull a 40% approval rating up. If you get a single point up, that's an accomplishment.

                      Obama's approval depends on the economy. The American Jobs Act would help, but Republicans have no incentive to help Obama get re-elected, no matter how much he shames them.

                      People panic too much on this site.

                      by thematt523 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 12:08:25 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

            •  It's hard, but not impossible. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin

              Look at the head-to-head comparisons with Romney and Perry. He's losing whites 34-57 to Romney and 38-53 to Perry, with nine percent undecided in each group. You're essentially betting that virtually nobody changes his mind for any reason and that every single undecided voter breaks towards one of those guys. If he merely splits the undecided whites with each one of these guys, he's right where he needs to be.

              Plus, like I said below, in spite of this poll, the fact that Kerry and Obama received roughly the same percentage of the white  vote in 2004 and 2008 leads me to think that it's basically fixed and will remain so unless there's a gigantic drop all over the country, at which point he'd be losing badly.

            •  No he doesn't (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin

              He doesn't have to convince them to "change their minds."  By their own terms they're undecided, which is why Obama still leads Romney by a point in this poll.  Obama doesn't have to flip anyone, he just has to keep enough undecideds in his corner to eek it out.

              I'm amused by this because this poll is better than I would've expected for Obama in Florida right now.  Florida has always been a terrible state for Obama, even on election night last time it was a pure tossup going in.  He trailed in the state, sometimes badly, for most of the 2008 cycle until very late.  And Obama's Florida polling in recent months has been worse than this one.

              43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:50:45 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  I would caution reading too much into crosstabs (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, DCCyclone

      Compared to the recent Q poll out of FL this poll is amazing.

      “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

      by conspiracy on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:45:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Honestly, I regard the racial crosstabs (0+ / 0-)

        as the only ones worth considering. And in this case, I think they somewhat undermine the genuinely not-so-bad toplines.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:48:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think they are all worth considering (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          I just don't give excessive weight to them. Now, granted, as the single largest demographic group in the poll, the figure for whites should be more reliable. But we are still talking about a sample of 319 people. We don't take seriously polls of that number when it represents the total sample.

          “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

          by conspiracy on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 12:37:23 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  What accounts for the difference (0+ / 0-)

        between Obama versus Romney in each poll?

        •  Comparison (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          PPP - Obama 46-45
          40D, 37R, 23I
          46-52 disapprove (83, 8, 41 approve)
          67 White, 12 Black, 16 Hispanic
          18-29 16%
          30-45 22
          46-65 36
          65+    26

          Q - Romney 47-40 (83, 4, 35 Obama)
          32D, 29R, 33I
          39-57 disapprove (75, 6, 37 approve)
          70 White, 12 Black, 14 Hispanic
          18-34 16%
          35-49 16
          50-64 35
          65+    29

          “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

          by conspiracy on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 01:14:59 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  CT-Gov: Malloy definitely (0+ / 0-)

    needs to be primaried, if he runs again.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 11:50:07 AM PDT

    •  we've got a couple years to worry about that. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, SaoMagnifico, DCCyclone

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 12:11:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh, absolutely! (0+ / 0-)

        I get the feeling though that it's not going to get better for him.

        19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 12:13:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Who knows? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico

          I'm not sure of how things turned out because I stopped paying attention, but I know he proposed some pretty severe tax increases for the state. Perhaps that's hurting him. If things get better in the next year or two and he's able to draw back some of them, it could help him at least as much as an overall improvement in the economy might help him.

    •  He raised taxes, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      cut some services, and waged a high-profile (though reasonable) battle with unions.

      It's no wonder he's struggling. He's trying to right the state through true shared sacrifice, unlike some other states where the burden is being unfairly distributed.

      I say give him time. When the state starts to recover, he'll recover with it.

      •  Completely agreed (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        No need to plan how to punish him for being politically courageous three years out. He has plenty of time to bounce back.

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 02:04:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  interesting (0+ / 0-)

          that your comment is exactly the same as the republican response to scott walker.

          and I think both are in the same boat

          18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 03:47:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Huh? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico

            Malloy challenged public sector unions and extracted major concessions over the near term, but didn't hobble them. He also raised taxes.

            What taxes did Walker raise? In what ways did Walker ruffle the feathers of anyone in his base?

            Also, as you'll notice in this poll, Malloy's approvals among Dems are sagging - for the reasons mentioned above. In Wisconsin, there's a sharp divide between parties on Walker's performance.

            In one state, the sacrifice is shared. In the other it is not.

            •  No he just means that (0+ / 0-)

              what he said about him being courageous is what Republicans say about Scott Walker being courageous in taking on the Unions.

              and how he'll have time to "bounce" back in the polls.

              DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

              by aggou on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 04:27:33 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, and I think both can easily recover (0+ / 0-)

            If the economy gets better nationally before 2014, all these incumbents' job approvals will improve dramatically no matter how bad they've been, barring other issues keeping them down.

            One reason I want to see WI Dems push hard for a recall next year is that I fear Walker might get his sea legs in 2013-14.

            Same with Malloy, except he's on our side so I root for his reelection.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:55:48 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  So everything Walker (0+ / 0-)

              did over the past year won't matter, in 2014? Wisconsinites dislike this man strongly. Even if the economy improves and he gets his "sea legs", I doubt he would win reelection.

              19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

              by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:58:27 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  He's not that far underwater (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                jncca

                Walker's job approvals are in the mid-40s.  He's underwater for sure, but he actually recovered a small bit from the spring to the summer, having bottomed out in the low 40s.

                If just 1 out of every 20 voters softens on him, he's OK.  And I guarantee that a significant share of that disapproval is soft disapproval that can turn without a lot required, because that's always true in every pol's disapprovals, as well as approvals.

                43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:04:35 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  That's if you believe (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  itskevin

                  much of his disapproval is actually "soft". Wisconsin as it is now is pretty partisan and divided with a slight edge to Democrats. Sure a small percentage may be soft, but I doubt it's enough to get him over the hump.

                  19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                  by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:22:58 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  "Much" doesn't have to be soft (0+ / 0-)

                    As I said, 1 out of 20, that's all it takes to flip his approval into positive territory.  I guarantee at least that much of his disapproval is soft.

                    It might not turn at all, for sure.  Sometimes people just stay underwater.

                    But as a rule pols don't stay underwater for years at a time.

                    What really matters is whether people have come to dislike Walker personally to the point he can't recover.  I kind of doubt that, just based on the fact his approvals are still in the mid-40s now.

                    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 05:06:18 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  His approvals (0+ / 0-)

                      have been in the 40's this whole time. The state is extremely divided.

                      19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                      by ndrwmls10 on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 10:31:07 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  "This whole time" is only a few months (0+ / 0-)

                        He had the standard decent honeymoon polling at the outset, then slid by mid/late-winter.  We're talking 6-7 months of bad polling, it just feels longer than that because so much has happened.

                        The state will remain extremely divided, I don't doubt that, but it's expecting a lot to think Walker will remain steady at 45ish job approval for 3 more full years.

                        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 11:18:41 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Look, I'm all for (0+ / 0-)

                          the idea that his numbers may improve, but this could be the exception to the rule. Not to mention the growing corruption scandal in his administration. We can look at it in the abstract and say "yeah his numbers will improve", but when you look at it for what it really is, there is no way.

                          19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                          by ndrwmls10 on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 11:22:44 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  The corruption scandal only means that.... (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            itskevin

                            ...the state Dems better get aggressive about a recall election next year.

                            Voters have short memories.  If the scandal doesn't force Walker out of office in disgrace, then a recall next year is a better bet than hoping for 2014 to be better for us.

                            My take on the whole thing is that you strike while the iron's hot, and in this case that means trying to dethrone Walker next year, not in 3 years.

                            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 11:51:56 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  The corruption scandal (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            DCCyclone

                            could also give Dems more legitimacy in seeking the recall in the first place. Without the scandal, voters might have thought: "Oh, here we go again," as recall fatigue has probably set in. This gives us a new rationale for making the push.

    •  Meh, give him some time. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, SaoMagnifico

      I'm not against primarying for electability, but lets wait and see. I would be quite shocked if those don't pick up. Plus we really don't have someone popular enough that will do worlds better that I'm aware of.

      Hoosierdem's progressive candidate of the week: Alison Lundergan Grimes, candidate for Secretary of State of Kentucky. Yes, a Progressive in KENTUCKY! Learn more at. http://alison2011.com/

      by drhoosierdem on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 12:54:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If things don't improve for Malloy (0+ / 0-)

      I was curious about who might run. State Treasurer Dennis Nappier seems like an interesting possibility.

      http://ctmirror.org/...

      19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 02:14:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nappier (0+ / 0-)

        was at the center of a big controversy over the past month. It was basically a case of "driving while black," though it still may have damaged her brand. And from everything I've heard, I don't think she's interested in moving beyond the Treasurer's office.

    •  come on, really? (5+ / 0-)

      Deval Patrick had shitty numbers until like half a year before the election.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 03:08:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Perhaps I was a bit zealous. (0+ / 0-)

        If his approvals continue to be this bad come 2013, then he should be primaried.

        19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 03:09:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  HI-Sen: Tammy Duckworth (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    andgarden, drhoosierdem, SaoMagnifico

    has given her preference to her "dear friend" Hirono.

    http://blogs.starbulletin.com/...

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 12:06:24 PM PDT

    •  IL-08: Hirono, Hanabusa, Inouye, Akaka, and (0+ / 0-)

      Abercrombie are doing fundraising events for Duckworth in Hawaii.

      http://www.hawaiireporter.com/...

      19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 02:51:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I honestly wonder... (0+ / 0-)

        What Raja Krishnamoorthi did for a bunch of key allies of his old friend President Obama to suddenly have the long knives out for him.

        I'll bet there would be a good Slate feature in it.

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 02:56:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Maybe he didn't do anything. (0+ / 0-)

          I read Axelrod's comments differently. I think he was being a Chicago Democrat. Perhaps a bit dickish, but trying to give Raja good advice. Many of the establishment prefer Duckworth and he could be heading to a second primary defeat.

          19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 03:01:49 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Axelrod didn't have to endorse (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca

            Neither did Gov. Abercrombie, or Sen. Durbin (who emailed me earlier asking me to empty my pockets for Duckworth). These are people who are personally close to President Obama and have been for years. They doubtless ran in the same circle as Krishnamoorthi, who was also friends with Obama. I think it's obvious that there was a major falling-out and the Obama camp, including guys like Abercrombie and Durbin who are elected officials in their own right, has some sort of vendetta.

            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 03:13:12 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Freshmen Senators approvals: (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca, KingofSpades, James Allen, dc1000, askew

    Manchin: +33 (59/26)
    Blumenthal: +18 (52/34)
    Rubio: +7 (42/35)
    Ayotte:+6 (44/38)
    Johnson: +4 (39/35)
    Lee: +4 (35/31)
    Toomey: +1 (30/29)
    Paul: -2 (42/44)
    Portman: -5 (28/33)
    Blunt: -9 (33/42)

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 12:19:15 PM PDT

  •  Romney Only Raised $13 Million for the Quarter? (7+ / 0-)

    Via Political Wire, that's what the Boston Globe is saying. If it's true, it's a pretty big drop from the $18.2 million he raised last quarter. Here are some thoughts:

    1. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

    2. Perhaps this is a sign that he's becoming less popular, if that's even possible. If that is the case, then what does this say about his general election chances? Just a slight drop in the enthusiasm for him, which would probably be down from the enthusiasm for a generic Republican, could doom him.

    3. Or is it a sign that people are keeping their wallets closed for some reason, like hoping Chris Christie gets into the race?

    4. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

    5. Or did Perry eat into his totals?

    6. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

  •  WI-Sen: Sensenbrenner talks about (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico

    the race. An interesting and not extremely partisan look from the Republican side.

    http://www.jsonline.com/...

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 12:31:06 PM PDT

  •  Tomorrow's the quarterly fundraising deadline! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, drhoosierdem, askew

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 12:39:39 PM PDT

  •  Mitt Romney Calls for Fiscal/Monetary Stimulus. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    Or rather, he did so in 2008, according to Matt Yglesias. There's no real reason for me to post this, except to give my fellow progressives a nice link to use in the ever-present battle of economic ideas where one side changes positions merely for partisan advantage. You can thank me later, or with a bottle of rum now. I don't care which.

  •  IL-12: Some Dude GOPer announces (0+ / 0-)

    a run to try to dethrone Jerry Costello (D).

    His name is the former Belleville mayer Roger Cook, and he's running as a Republican.

    He is the fourth Republican declared or consider running (Newman, Kormos, Plummer, and now Cook) to try to unseat IL-12 incumbent Jerry Costello (D) in November 2012.
  •  OR-01 (0+ / 0-)

    interview with Avakian.  Seems interesting.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 02:31:59 PM PDT

    •  Definitely interesting (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      I read through Witt's as well and found a few bones to pick; for example, I like the idea of curtailing defense spending and raising the Social Security cap (a common-sense proposal that doesn't get enough airplay, and bless all three Democrats in our district for talking about it), but this isn't the right time to raise income or payroll taxes on the middle class, IMO.

      On a related note, I'm amused by The Oregonian's portrayal of all three mayoral candidates as having "serious flaws":

      1. Charlie Hales lived in Washington and voted in Oregon for several years up until 2009, the same blatant tax-dodging stunt that quite possibly lost Chris Dudley the election last year.

      2. Eileen Brady tried to pull the "don't you know who I am!?" card when police asked her not to ride her bike through Rose Festival grounds several years ago.

      3. Jefferson Smith realized that his personal lack of civic participation was part of a social epidemic in 2001 and founded a very successful nonprofit as a way of getting people engaged and compensating for his previous failures to vote, and has been a regular voter ever since.

      False equivalency much?

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 02:50:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  R Prex FL (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, LordMike

    Just wow.... Romney at 27, Cain at 25(!!!), Perry 13(!!!). Still early but I think Romney is very favored at this point. Cain is just another flavor of the month.

    http://www.surveyusa.com/...

    Hoosierdem's progressive candidate of the week: Alison Lundergan Grimes, candidate for Secretary of State of Kentucky. Yes, a Progressive in KENTUCKY! Learn more at. http://alison2011.com/

    by drhoosierdem on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 05:20:17 PM PDT

    •  Prez (0+ / 0-)

      Hoosierdem's progressive candidate of the week: Alison Lundergan Grimes, candidate for Secretary of State of Kentucky. Yes, a Progressive in KENTUCKY! Learn more at. http://alison2011.com/

      by drhoosierdem on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 05:22:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Flavor of the month is correct (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, itskevin, LordMike

      They've already had several. Trump, Cain, Bachmann, Perry, now Cain again. Christie next maybe. Then perhaps Huntsman shocks everybody in New Hampshire. Wide open is an understatement.

      “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

      by conspiracy on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 05:57:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Unhappily, I must agree (0+ / 0-)

      Gov. Perry could stage a comeback, certainly, but Romney has to be considered the favorite at this stage.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:12:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  With the collapse of every (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, itskevin, James Allen

        candidate, so far, Romney has not benefited from it. His support has remained almost exactly in the same place. I would bet on a Perry comeback as well.

        19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:15:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I dunno (0+ / 0-)

          He really stepped wrong on immigration. It's going to be tough to sort that out.

          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 06:58:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Maybe social conservatives save him in Iowa (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin

            And Romney has plenty missteps that could yet come back to haunt him. Particularly through paid media.

            “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

            by conspiracy on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 07:07:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  This whole (0+ / 0-)

              primary is giving me a headache..... I wish we already knew who it's going to be.

              DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

              by aggou on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 07:27:42 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  We are still in September (0+ / 0-)

                January at the earliest before we get any firm idea.

                “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

                by conspiracy on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 07:34:40 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yes I know. (0+ / 0-)

                  Yet, I sometimes wish I had a time machine so I could "jump" a head and know what's going to happen already.

                  Sometimes the up's, and down's of a campaign wear me down.

                  DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

                  by aggou on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 07:56:54 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  If Gov. Christie gets in... (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, DCCyclone, jj32, itskevin

              Romney might as well hang it up right now. There's not gonna be room in the race for two Northeastern governors who use fiery conservative rhetoric to cover for occasional departures from Republican orthodoxy and are regarded as "electable" options, especially since Christie is widely considered to be somewhat to Romney's right, more genuine, and a better communicator.

              Of course, Christie's still publicly saying no, even though a lot of reports are indicating he's privately saying maybe.

              Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 07:56:33 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I hope he doesn't get in. (0+ / 0-)

                DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

                by aggou on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:10:02 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Let's say he jumps in on Monday... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin

                With Iowa sure to move back their primary to like January 2nd 'cos of all the misbehaving states, Christie will have TWO MONTHS to start from NOTHING until the Iowa caucuses.  Even if he plans to skip those, New hampshire won't be far away, and he HAS to compete in New Hampshire.

                That would be quite a feat--zero to Iowa in two months flat.

                GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                by LordMike on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:40:50 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I think there is (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  LordMike

                  no doubt Christie would siphon of a good chunk of Romney's support. The other "Flavors of the Month" rose and sank in a month or less. Christie could become that in two months or could make Romney that in two months. It doesn't really seem to matter, in the 2012 Republican primary.

                  19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                  by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:44:56 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  I agree with you there, it would be... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike, itskevin

                ...a big problem for Romney, more than for Perry.

                But I've said all along Christie will crash and burn, and I stand by it.  That he's waited this long makes it even worse, especially since the GOP calendar seems to be moving up a month to January.  But that doesn't mean he doesn't drag down others along the way, and I think Romney is likely to be his most likely victim.

                43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:01:48 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Do you think the RNC will (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone, itskevin

                  pull 50% of their delegates from Florida if they move up and what effects could this have?

                  'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

                  by KingofSpades on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:05:48 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Yes, just like they did last time, and... (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    itskevin

                    ...it will have no affect at all on the state's political importance in its primary, and the delegates will all be seated at the convention anyway.

                    This isn't new, this happened in 2008, so we already know how it will play out.  It was different on our side because the DNC said zero delegates for FL and MI for moving up, and Obama and others boycotted those states which really did render their Dem primaries meaningless.  But Republicans kept some delegates and the GOP candidates played the state as if nothing changed.

                    Florida is ensuring it's a possible kingmaker.  It was last time for McCain, and while I think this time the GOP race will take longer to pick a winner, it will still matter bigtime.

                    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:09:15 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  I agree too. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone

                  By some logical instinct, I think Christie will take more from Romney.

                  'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

                  by KingofSpades on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:06:34 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  He's too much establishmentarian, so... (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    SaoMagnifico, LordMike, itskevin

                    ...that's why it would play like that.

                    The GOP establishment desperately wants an acceptable candidate, and Romney is the closest thing they've got, so Christie can take over that space.

                    Perry plays to a different universe of voters, one from which Christie will steal some support, but Christie still will take more from Romney.

                    That said, I won't be surprised if Christie wins nowhere!  He's going to have to pick a state to make a play for a breakout, as he's going to have limited funds and not enough time to do all the voter contact necessary in all the early states.

                    Within a few weeks after Christie enters, he gets the spotlight, Perry gets a break, Romney gets crowded, but then it sinks in:  "Oh, shit Christie doesn't have enough money!  Christie doesn't have enough time!  He's putting it all on Florida like Rudy last time, because he can't beat Perry in Iowa or SC or Romney in NH and Nevada isn't important enough and everyone is ignoring it!"

                    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:13:22 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  There are some very wealthy people... (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      LordMike, itskevin

                      Pushing Gov. Christie toward a bid. I think he'll have the money, if he wants to run, and I think he'll be able to assemble the organization.

                      I also think he'd be smartest to focus on New Hampshire and then Florida.

                      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 10:03:44 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  The calendar is moving up... (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        DCCyclone

                        His organization will have two months to be set up and deliver.  That's a really short amount of time.

                        He will have the money, I have no doubt about that, but even that will take time to assemble...

                        He should have gone in six months ago...

                        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                        by LordMike on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 10:21:22 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I bet money will be lot less than some think (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          itskevin

                          The GOP moneymen are atomized.  And there's less total money to go around.

                          I bet quite a few people end up sitting on their hands yet still, because for all their happiness that Christie got in, they'll be nervous that he'll bomb, either because he just doesn't live up to the hype, or because they're nervous he waited too long.

                          In any case Christie will have less money than Romney or Perry, and that will matter.

                          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                          by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 04:53:02 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

              •  I suspect what we see if Christie gets in is (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin

                Probably the same as all the others. Big entry bounce and everybody starts saying it is his to lose then his numbers fall back to earth and we are back where we started.

                “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

                by conspiracy on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 04:40:14 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I bet his bounce is limited (0+ / 0-)

                  Christie was polled in the past and always came in low single-digits.

                  He'll get some kind of bounce if he gets in now, but I think rank-and-file voters just aren't clamoring for him like establishmentarians are.  He won't be a clear frontrunner even for a day, which will distinguish him from Romney and Perry who both had days in the sun to themselves.  And Christie's early-state polling will lag, a problem the media will hook on to in due time.

                  43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 05:09:44 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Not so sure (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    itskevin

                    They seem prone to go for the latest shiny object. Look at Cain's bounce from winning the straw poll and Bachmann and Trump before that.

                    “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

                    by conspiracy on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 10:46:04 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I think easily distinguishable (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      itskevin

                      First, Trump and Bachmann were when the field had a much bigger vacuum.  Perry now fills a good part of it, and Romney's image has become stronger.

                      Second, I dismiss any notion of a Cain "bump" in Florida or nationally.  I think those couple polls (one in FL and one nationally) are outliers and won't be corroborated.

                      I won't be surprised to see Christie very competitive in national and some state polling with Romney and Perry, but he won't be a clear frontrunner anywhere.

                      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 11:16:09 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

      •  Strongly disagree, nothing has changed (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, James Allen

        It's still a tossup.

        Perry, I'm convinced, still will win Iowa.  Bachmann is imploding fast, and everything I'm reading lately underscores her Iowa support will implode with her bank account and other troubles.

        Perry will win SC.

        And then FL will be a dogfight.

        That Cain surged in this poll just underscores to me that it's unreliable, since PPP just polled down there and showed no such thing.

        And early states affect later states, always remember that.  McCain won SC because he won NH.  McCain then won FL because he won NH and SC.

        Perry is suffering some inevitable growing pains that he can afford as long as his bank account is flush.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 09:00:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Nevada will also be tight. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

          by James Allen on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 10:14:24 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  PPP (0+ / 0-)

          polled before Cain won the straw poll though. The most recent nationwide poll had Cain surging as well. I think it is accurate.

          Hoosierdem's progressive candidate of the week: Alison Lundergan Grimes, candidate for Secretary of State of Kentucky. Yes, a Progressive in KENTUCKY! Learn more at. http://alison2011.com/

          by drhoosierdem on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 04:30:28 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't think it's accurate, Cain is nothing (0+ / 0-)

            Straw polls are meaningless.  Cain got a little media bump and a Florida poll showed that as an outlier.

            And the nationwide poll also is a very bad outlier.  Another one had Gingrich surging in the most recent test, and all these just show a race in flux.

            I'll believe Cain is surging in Florida or elsewhere when polling consistently says so.  And I'm confident it's not going to to say so.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 05:11:52 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  MA-Sen: A good breakdown (4+ / 0-)

    of Setti Warren's failed Senate bid. Also there was a little tidbit about Brown's people believing Elizabeth Warren may have raised upwards of 2 million, for the quarter.

    http://www.boston.com/...

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 08:26:08 PM PDT

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