Bill Maloney (R)
Public Policy Polling (PDF). 9/30-10/2. Likely voters. MoE ±3.2% (
9/1-4 results):
Earl Ray Tomblin (D-inc): 47 (46)
Bill Maloney (R): 46 (40)
Undecided: 7 (14)
It's hard to see this poll as anything other than bad news for acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin. Election day is tomorrow, and Bill Maloney has been hoovering up almost all of the undecided vote. Indeed, the race stood at 45-30 in May, meaning Tomblin has gained just two points while Maloney has shot up sixteen. It's not just the extreme closeness of these numbers which have me concerned, though. It's Maloney's momentum. As Tom Jensen explains:
A lot of money has been spent on attacking Tomblin in the closing weeks of the campaign and that appears to be taking its toll on the Governor's image. His net approval has dropped 13 points in the last four weeks from +25 (50/25) to just +12 (44/32). Attempts to saddle Tomblin with the burden of Barack Obama might be having an impact as well — the President's approval in the state is just 28%, with 63% of voters disapproving of him.
Indeed, as Nathan Gonzales said, "it seems Republicans are going all out in trying to tie Tomblin to President Obama," with ads accusing him of "implementing Obamacare," among other sins. Maloney's numbers, meanwhile, have changed little over the last month, going from 43-29 favorable to 44-33 favorable. The one bit of good news here is that in early voting, Democrats voted at a rate higher than their statewide registration figures. Of course, we don't know how many crossed over to support Maloney, but as Tom suggests, it's possible that he may have narrowly run out of time.
Daily Kos Elections rates this race a Tossup. We will, as usual, be liveblogging the results tomorrow night. Polls close at 7:30 PM ET.