Goals for the Arizona map:
1) Adhere to the VRA
-keep Pastor's district at 2:1 Hispanic/White ratio
-disregard incumbency. This was easy because I don't know the residence of a single incumbent, although I do know where their old territory was.
-not combine the Phoenix metro area with outstate
-protect communities of interest
-keep cities together
So this is what I produced.
And the Phoenix Area (which is no longer just Maricopa County):
AZ-1: Paul Gosar (R) vs. Fmr. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
This one is definitely a toss-up. There are three big changes compared to the old AZ-1:
1) Cochise County in the Southeastern corner is added because it fits better here than with the 7th, which was the other option.
2) To meet population, most of Yavapai County is subtracted
3) Casa Grande in Pinal County is also excised.
Once you account for John McCain's 5 point home state advantage in 2008, this district is R+1.5, basically a toss-up. I happen to think that Kirkpatrick fits the district better than Gosar: she's a moderate and he's a conservative, but at the same time he's the incumbent. It'll be close all the way through next November. It's 57 W 19 NA 19 H. Fun Fact: The Yavapai portion contains a 90+% White precinct that voted 80% for Obama. Not sure why.
AZ-2: Trent Franks (R)
I gave Franks Peoria, Glendale, El Mirage, Sun City, Sun City West, and about 25,000 voters in unincorporated Maricopa and some in Phoenix proper. This R+8 district will suit Franks fine. It's 70 W 20 H. He lost all his rural areas and gained the Hispanic quarter of Glendale which is no longer needed in the VRA district and some of the Republican part of Phoenix.
AZ-3: Ben Quayle (R) vs. Dave Schweikert (R)
Schweikert definitely has the upper hand in this freshman on freshman primary against Quayle, who seems destined for backbencher status. Fun Fact: Schweikert was born the day of Wilt Chamberlain's 100 point game. Bits of Phoenix are lost from the old 3rd, and in return the Northern half of Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, and the Salt River Indian Reservation are added. This district is 78 W 13 H and R+6.
AZ-4: Ed Pastor (D)
Pastor's district loses its portion of Glendale for COI purposes and instead gains heavily Hispanic Tolleson and some white precincts that bordered the VRA district before and now can be tolerated while likely keeping CVAP above 50%. 56 H 29 W, basically the same as it was in 2002. It's D+15 and completely safe.
AZ-5: OPEN: Kirsten Sinema? (D) vs. ? (R)
Bordered by the VRA district and the suburban 6th, which I wouldn't let extend into rural territory, this district has a somewhat strange shape. All of Chandler and most of heavily Mormon Gilbert are now in the district. Tempe still remains as well, but the Northern half of Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, the former 5ths portion of Mesa is lost. Only about 15,000 residents at most are from Phoenix, and that's so that the 7th doesn't dip into Phoenix, which would be a really bad COI violation. This Toss-Up is also about R+1.5 and is 70 W 16 H.
AZ-6: OPEN (R)
Except for shedding population due to growth, Jeff Flake's old district barely changes. The western 5th of Mesa, which for some reason was in the 5th previously, no longer is, and one large 35 person precinct up north changes the shape somewhat, but it's basically the same: Pinal County Exurbs, Mesa, and however much of Gilbert fits. 73 W 19 H and R+11.
AZ-7: Raul Grijalva (D) vs. ? (R)
Under this map, Grijalva would have a tough trek ahead. Tucson doesn't belong in this rural district, so only about 1/4 of Grijalva's Tucson portions remain (for population purposes). I unified Santa Cruz County (not sure what that was about in 2000), added Casa Grande, and lost La Paz County. This district ends up at literally D+0.1, as close to a toss-up as you can get. It's 49 W 41 H and should be plurality Hispanic by VAP pretty soon, since by total population it's 47 W 43 W. Of course, CVAP is another matter. Anyways, the Chair of the Progressive Caucus isn't exactly safe in a swing district, to say the least.
AZ-8: Gabby Giffords (D)
This is nearly all of Tucson and some suburban and rural areas. I considered giving Grijalva Casas Adobes simply because Giffords might not want to return there due to trauma, but decided that a) it's supposed to not regard incumbents and b) she's probably brave enough to go back. So we're left with this D+5 that's safe even if she doesn't run for re-election. 63 W 28 H.
AZ-9: OPEN (R)
The third rural district, along with the 1st and the 7th. This is basically the rural half of the 2nd, which grew so much it could be split in half, along with most of Yavapai. Fun Fact: Colorado City, along the Utah border, which is home to some fundamentalist Mormon sects, has 6,085 people, but only 14 votes for Obama (vs. 614 for McCain and 121!!! for 3rd parties). Not sure if that's weirder or if the under 18 population is double the over 18 population. It's my choice for strangest precinct in America, though. This district is R+13 and 76 W 17 H.
So there we go: 4-2-3 map.
Safe R: 2, 3, 6, 9
Tossup: 1,5, 7
Likely D: 8
Safe D: 4