Fairleigh Dickinson University. 9/19-25. Registered voters. MoE ±3.5% (1/3-9 results):
Bob Menendez (D-inc): 49 (40)
Michael Doherty (R): 30 (30)
Undecided: 22 (30)
Bob Menendez (D-inc): 49 (41)
Joe Kyrillos (R): 28 (29)
Undecided: 22 (30)
It's been a long time since FDU tested Bob Menendez against either Michael Doherty or Joe Kyrillos, two state senators, but since then, one thing's changed and one thing hasn't. The Republicans (neither of whom has formally launched a campaign) remain completely unknown, while Menendez has finally achieved much more incumbent-like numbers. Menendez is still remarkably anonymous for a sitting senator who has in fact already won election once (back in 2006, after he was tapped to replace Jon Corzine). Some 27 percent of voters have no opinion of him, and 20 percent haven't even heard of him, making him basically a blank in the eyes of half the electorate.
It's very hard to see what accounts for his rise, though. The sample composition is almost the same for both polls, and Menendez's favorability ratings are basically unchanged since the start of the year. In the head-to-heads, he's improved somewhat among members of his own party, and a little bit with independents. But it doesn't look like there's anything dramatic hidden anywhere in the crosstabs. I suppose the question (as ever) will be whether numbers like these (improved, but still soft) encourage the GOP to once again make a play at a Senate seat in New Jersey. Ordinarily, I'm all for goading them on, but these days, I'm reluctant to tempt fate.