There are many different reasons why Obama should win a second term. No the economy is not great but can we put all the blame or even part of the blame on him? No we did not get the health care reform we wanted, but again can we blame him for that? Despite how poor his numbers are right now Obama's election to a second term should be a cakewalk?
Why?
The Republican candidates, that's why. Who among them has the mass appeal right now in order to get the (for whatever reason) "vaunted" independent voter to swing for them? Every single one of them (except maybe Huntsman and he is so far back in the polling he is nothing more than an oddity) are playing so hard to who they think is their base (the Regressive Republican) that by the time one of them eventually does win the nomination they are going to seem way too far right for moderate voters.
Let us take a look at each one of the main contenders:
Mitt Romney: He is a Mormom, that alone is a disqualification for most Regressives. The primary process has always favored by the base of the parties because only the base and the very involved even show up for primary elections. In those states where Christianity is the top priority for Regressives, Romney can not win.
He also flip flops on his positions so much he makes the caricature of Kerry look solid. On almost every one of his positions he has switched from what he did believe to what he believes today. Sometimes that flip comes within days or even hours of his previous stance.
However, if he does make it to the general election he does have to deal with his flip flopping. I do see him completely changing all or most of his stances if he does make it to the general election. That could cause him more heartache with independents who see a man who can not make up his mind about what he believes and the Regressives who will see him as betraying them.
Herman (aka Herb according to Sister Sarah) Cain: He seems most at home with the Regressive wing of the Republican Party. His main issue is that he is not as big on crucifying gays as some of his other opponents. However, if he somehow does make it through the primaries and into the general election, he has already said enough to cause most voters to stay away from him; whether it is calling any non-Republican blacks brainwashed or calling the protesters at Occupy Wall Street un-American and haters of capitalism. He seems to be aiming solely at getting the Regressives behind him and there are simply not enough of them to propel him past Obama.
Rick Perry: He is the Christian wet dream for the Regressive Republicans, but he steps on his toes way to often to scare non-Regressive Republicans away from him. However, he is the odds on favorite right now to win the nomination. He stands the best chance of beating Obama, but again, because he has positioned himself so far to the right this will potentially scare moderate Independents away from him.
Michelle Bachmann: Her candidacy is dead in the water. She made so many gaffes following her win in the Ames Straw Poll that even some of her supporters wonder what is wrong with her. If she somehow managed to pull off the upset and get nominated most voters would vote against her simply because she actually has no idea what actually happened in America's past and seemingly just makes it up as she goes along.
SIDE NOTE:
Sarah Palin surprised no one (except for her most ardent supporters) when she FINALLY decided not to run for president. Why should she? She is making millions telling people how badly she is being treated by the media pointing out her gaffes and then decrying that her 1st Amendment Rights have been violated. She did surprise me thought when she also decided not to run as an Independent because she felt that would secure a victory for Obama (she is actually right). We shall see, though, she likes the limelight way too much and the moment she sees that the light is shifting away from her she will pop back up.