It's been a while since I posted a nice fantasymander, and Maryland/Ohio maps are so mainstream, so I decided to look at the damage Democrats could have done had they held the trifecta in Michigan. The answer? A lot. 10-3-1 or 9-3-2 depending on your view. In this map, every Dem incumbent except Gary Peters is totally safe, and even Peters is slightly strengthened (at least in the general; he might be screwed in the primary). Several other GOP congresscritters are screwed over. Dan Benishek's district is made slightly bluer but not overwhelmingly so, so he's the swing district in the map. I guess you could argue that the map is 9-3-2 since Upton's district is also a little wobbly, but he's in deep shit there, having not run a real race in forever.
First, the whole state
MI-01
Incumbent: Dan Benishek (R-Iron River)
Old Vote: Obama 50 McCain 48
New Vote: Obama 52 McCain 46
Average: Dem 48 Rep 52
Description: This district drops the western part of its LP portion and heads down to Isabella County. It also pushes further into Bay County and gains a little nub into Midland, making it bluer. 2010 candidate Gary McDowell (D-Rudyard) is probably modestly favored in a rematch.
MI-02
Incumbent: Dave Camp (R-Midland), Justin Amash (R-Cascade Township)
Old Vote (MI-04): Obama 50 McCain 48
New Vote: Obama 44 McCain 54
Average: Dem 36 Rep 64
Description: This district is basically the successor to Dave Camp's current district. It turns into a GOP vote sink and now meanders all the way into Kent County. Amash would probably lose a primary here, but the 3rd is probably too blue for him to win, so he'd likely run in the 4th.
MI-03
Incumbent: OPEN
Old Vote (MI-02): Obama 48 McCain 51
New Vote: Obama 58 McCain 40
Average: Dem 47 Rep 53
Description: This takes over for MI-02 as the northern Lake Michigan district, but it's far bluer than MI-02 was, as it combines Democratic areas on the shore with most of Grand Rapids. As the average shows, Republicans can win this when they win statewide, but most of the time it will be a faithfully Democratic district.
MI-04
Incumbent: Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland)
Old Vote (MI-03): Obama 49 McCain 49 (McCain victory)
New Vote: Obama 39 McCain 59
Average: Dem 31 Rep 69
Description: McCain underperformed badly in Michigan yet still won this district by 20 points. Needless to say, it's way too red for a Democrat to win. However, it's still an awesome district, because while it's only home to one R incumbent, two others (Amash and Walberg) have had their districts drawn out from under them, and will probably be running here instead. In other words, three-way primary. As for us Democrats, we can just sit back and watch them tear each other apart with our friend Orville Redenbacher ;)
MI-05
Incumbent: Dale Kildee (D-Flint)
Old Vote: Obama 64 McCain 35
New Vote: Obama 63 McCain 35
Average: Dem 56 Rep 44
Description: Still a reliably blue Flint-based district, Dan Kildee shouldn't have trouble taking over here.
MI-06
Incumbent: Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph)
Old Vote: Obama 54 McCain 45
New Vote: Obama 56 McCain 42
Average: Dem 46 Rep 54
Description: While Upton overperforms the lean of his district, that also means he's getting rusty, and his district has now been nudged bluer. Democrats should strike while the iron is hot and run up the numbers with new constituents in Battle Creek and Grand Haven in order to vanquish fauxderate Upton.
MI-07
Incumbent: OPEN
Old Vote: Obama 52 McCain 46
New Vote: Obama 59 McCain 39
Average: Dem 49 Rep 51
Description: Finally, Lansing is no longer "represented" by Mike Rogers. It now joins Jackson in a Democratic-leaning district that can elect a progressive. Virg Bernero maybe?
MI-08
Incumbent: Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Hills)
Old Vote (MI-09): Obama 56 McCain 43
New Vote: Obama 57 McCain 42
Average: Dem 45 Rep 55
Description: Unfortunately, the need to keep two majority-black districts necessitates that one goes up to Pontiac, which saved Peters' ass in 2010. To keep his district reasonably blue, it has to become a meandering mess which goes to Washtenaw County and takes part of Ann Arbor (although the majority of the University of Michigan is in MI-10). As Peters is very much an Oakland County politician, this could sink him in the primary. Still, this district is actually a little bluer than it was before, and probably trending moreso.
MI-09
Incumbent: Mike Rogers (R-Howell)
Old Vote: Obama 53 McCain 46 (MI-08) Obama 48 McCain 50 (MI-10)
New Vote: Obama 44 McCain 54
Average: Dem 35 Rep 65
Description: Ironically, MI-08 and MI-10 were the two fastest-growing districts this past decade, and indeed they actually had to shrink, but because this is a Dem gerrymander I combined them into a big GOP vote sink. I think Rogers would beat Miller in a primary here, as this district leaves out most of Macomb County, including her home.
MI-10
Incumbent: Tim Walberg (R-Adrian)
Old Vote (MI-11): Obama 54 McCain 45
New Vote: Obama 63 McCain 35
Average: Dem 55 Rep 45
Description: This is actually a new district which replaces Thad McCotter's district, which was chopped into pieces, even though it was the 4th-fasting growing district in the state this past decade. With a district like this, maybe Thad was better off running for president after all.
MI-11
Incumbent: Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak)
Old Vote (MI-12): Obama 65 McCain 33
New Vote: Obama 59 McCain 39
Average: Dem 50 Rep 50 (Dem advantage)
Description: Sander Levin takes a pretty big hit, with his district no longer Safe D, although still pretty clearly Dem-leaning. This area has lost so much population that the only choice is to weaken Levin or to combine him with Peters. If there's one thing Levin will like, though, it's that part of Sterling Heights/Roseville (the base of his 2010 primary opponent, St. Sen. Mickey Switalski) has been drawn into the 12th.
MI-12
Incumbent: Candice Miller (R-Harrison Township), Hansen Clarke (D-Detroit)
Old Vote (MI-13): Obama 85 McCain 15
New Vote: Obama 72 McCain 27
Average: Dem 62 Rep 38
Description: The enormous population loss in Detroit causes this district to expand a lot, and it goes flying up into Macomb County, absorbing Republican areas to help out Sander Levin. It stays barely majority-black, at 50.2% VAP.
MI-13
Incumbent: Thad McCotter (R-Livonia), John Conyers (D-Detroit)
Old Vote (MI-14): Obama 86 McCain 14
New Vote: Obama 71 McCain 28
Average: Dem 61 Rep 39
Description: Under this map, there is no switcheroo between Hansen Clarke and John Conyers, so if Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence still wants to run, it has to be against Conyers. This district is forced to take in Southfield and Pontiac to stay majority black (50.2% VAP), but it also grabs some Republican areas in Wayne and Oakland counties to help Levin/Peters and screw over Thad McCotter.
MI-14
Incumbent: John Dingell (D-Dearborn)
Old Vote (MI-15): Obama 66 McCain 33
New Vote: Obama 61 McCain 37
Average: Dem 52 Rep 48
Description: The longest-serving member of the House sees his district compacted to Wayne County and takes a bit of a hit, but he will still be fine in the general. After being around this long, I doubt he even has the energy to complain.
That's it! Comments?