There are a lot of wild cards in New York redistricting, but since I love drawing fantasy Democratic gerrymanders, I figured I'd post one for New York. The Democrats will never draw this map because it eliminates Queens Dem leader Joe Crowley, but I did that on purpose to get revenge on him for inflicting David Weprin on us. Of course, that doesn't mean that he is downstate's only eliminated seat. Douchebag Bob Turner will also have to pack his bags. New York's population doesn't support the elimination of two NYC districts, so a new district is created in Brooklyn to compensate. Upstate, Republican Chris Gibson is eliminated.
Whole state
NYC
NY-01
Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D-Southampton)
Old Vote: Obama 52 McCain 48
New Vote: Obama 53 McCain 46
Average: Dem 56 Rep 44
Description: Drops R-leaning Smithtown, gains part of D-leaning Islip. Hard to give him a really safe district without intense gerrymandering, but if he could survive 2010 hopefully he'll be okay.
NY-02
Incumbent: Steve Israel (D-Dix Hills)
Old Vote: Obama 56 McCain 43
New Vote: Obama 57 McCain 42
Average: Dem 59 Rep 41
Description: The DCCC chair took his 2010 challenge fairly seriously and won by a decent 56-43 margin, but he probably would want more protection. By removing some of the North Shore and pushing him into Hicksville and Levittown, this map does so.
NY-03
Incumbent: Peter King (R-Seaford), Carolyn McCarthy (D-Mineola)
Old Vote: Obama 47 McCain 52
New Vote: Obama 45 McCain 54
Average: Dem 47 Rep 53
Description: This district becomes more Republican in order to wring out more Dem votes for Bishop and Israel. Unfortunately McCarthy lives in a Republican area so her house has been drawn in here, but moving (or simply running from out of the district) won't kill her. She won't like this map, but the sadsack population growth in Nassau means her district has to be significantly reconfigured anyway.
NY-04
Incumbent: OPEN
Old Vote: Obama 58 McCain 41
New Vote: Obama 63 McCain 36
Average: Dem 65 Rep 35
Description: Because Nassau County has had pathetic population growth and because I wanted to keep Meeks' district majority-black, this district had to go into Queens to stay Democratic. And since McCarthy won 54-46 in 2010 against Some Dude, she should at least appreciate the bluer district. It also helps eliminate Turner; by snaking into Queens through Bellerose, it grabs several parts of NY-09, including red Kew Gardens Hills and blue Ozone Park and Jamaica Hills. However, McCarthy might have to worry about a primary from Assemblyman Rory Lancman (D-Hillcrest).
NY-05
Incumbent: Gary Ackerman (D-Roslyn Heights)
Old Vote: Obama 63 McCain 36
New Vote: Obama 63 McCain 36
Average: Dem 67 Rep 33
Description: Another district that reaches further into Queens to help crack NY-09. While dropping Dems in Long Island, this district grabs them from Rego Park, Fresh Meadows, and Forest Hills.
NY-06
Incumbent: Greg Meeks (D-St. Albans), Bob Turner (R-Breezy Point)
Old Vote: (NY-06) Obama 89 McCain 11 (NY-09) Obama 55 McCain 44
New Vote: Obama 78 McCain 22
Average: Dem 78 Rep 22
Description: Meeks expands into Long Island so his district can stay majority-black (50.2% VAP) and grabs the rest of the Rockaway Peninsula to screw over Bob Turner. He also absorbs other Republican parts of NY-09, including Howard Beach and Bergen Beach.
NY-07
Incumbent: OPEN
Old Vote: Obama 79 McCain 20
New Vote: Obama 76 McCain 23
Average: Dem 78 Rep 22
Description: This new seat in Brooklyn replaces Joe Crowley's seat. It grabs hipsters white liberals in Williamsburg and Park Slope then runs down to dilute Republican votes in Borough Park. It then makes up the requisite population by grabbing Soho, Tribeca, and Chinatown in Manhattan. It may not look contiguous, but just pretend that the East River is in Velazquez' district and the Hudson is in this one (can't split precincts on DRA).
NY-08
Incumbent: Jerry Nadler (D-Upper West Side)
Old Vote: Obama 74 McCain 26
New Vote: Obama 88 McCain 11
Average: Dem 86 Rep 14
Description: The creation of the new district necessitates pushing Nadler north. He first grabs Morningside Heights (including Columbia University) and then runs north to grab part of Washington Heights and Inwood. Of course this adds a lot of minority voters to his district, but it's still 54 white/26 Hispanic VAP, so he'll be fine.
NY-09
Incumbent: Ed Towns (D-East New York)
Old Vote (NY-10): Obama 91 McCain 9
New Vote: Obama 87 McCain 13
Average: Dem 88 Rep 12
Description: Turner's district got eliminated, so every district from now on drops a number. I think I might have drawn out a tiny bit of Hakeem Jeffries' territory, but hopefully he still primaries Towns. Anyway, this district remains based in Bed-Stuy/Canarasie/East New York but also absorbs some Republicans from Turner's district in Marine Park and Sheepshead Bay. It's 52.4% black VAP.
NY-10
Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D-Flatbush)
Old Vote (NY-11): Obama 91 McCain 9
New Vote: Obama 79 McCain 21
Average: Dem 82 Rep 18
Description: This district completes the cracking of NY-09 in Brooklyn by absorbing deep-red Ocean Parkway. It also splits Boro Park with NY-07. Interestingly enough, while this district is only plurality-black by total pop (48.9%), it's majority (50.2%) by VAP!
NY-11
Incumbent: Joe Crowley (D-Woodside), Nydia Velazquez (D-Red Hook)
Old Vote (NY-12): Obama 86 McCain 13
New Vote: Obama 80 McCain 19
Average: Dem 82 Rep 18
Description: Crowley is screwed, as he's been placed in this district which in turn has been made into majority-Hispanic from its currently plurality (56.1% VAP). Because it drops white liberals in Williamsburg and completes the cracking of NY-09 by grabbing Middle Village, it is unpacked while still getting a higher Hispanic percentage. Also, while it looks weirder now, it contains Velazquez' home (she currently lives in NY-08). She should be very pleased with this map. Joe "Good Day in Queens" Crowley, maybe not so much.
NY-12
Incumbent: Mike Grimm (R-Willowbrook)
Old Vote (NY-13): Obama 49 McCain 51
New Vote: Obama 51 McCain 48
Average: Dem 54 Rep 46
Description: Some precinct-swapping in Brooklyn bumps up the Dem % in this district, which should provide a good opening for a Dem (one not named Mike McMahon).
NY-13
Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D-Upper East Side)
Old Vote (NY-14): Obama 78 McCain 21
New Vote: Obama 76 McCain 23
Average: Dem 73 Rep 27
Description: This district retains its cores in the Upper East Side, Astoria, and LIC but expands east to grab LaGuardia airport, previously represented by Crowley. He could run here but Maloney would turn him into paste.
NY-14
Incumbent: Charles Rangel (D-Harlem)
Old Vote (NY-15): Obama 93 McCain 6
New Vote: Obama 94 McCain 5
Average: Dem 95 Rep 5
Description: I'm not sure whether this will become a black seat or a Hispanic seat, but I decided to preserve black voting strength in Manhattan. It's 45.7% black and 39.8% Hispanic by VAP. Rangel will probably get his sorry ass primaried by State Sen Ruth Hassell-Thompson (D-Mount Vernon).
NY-15
Incumbent: Jose Serrano (D-South Bronx)
Old Vote (NY-16): Obama 95 McCain 5
New Vote: Obama 93 McCain 7
Average: Dem 93 Rep 7
Description: 62% Hispanic VAP. By gaining Throgs Neck, this district becomes more Republican, which means it forfeits its title of bluest in the state/nation to Rangel's district. REPUBLICAN PICKUP
NY-16
Incumbent: Eliot Engel (D-Riverdale)
Old Vote (NY-17): Obama 72 McCain 28
New Vote: Obama 63 McCain 36
Average: Dem 64 Rep 36
Description: Engel takes quite a bit of a hit and might gripe, but he'll be fine. This district also stays minority-majority by total pop (48.8% white) but not VAP (51.7%).
NY-17
Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D-Rye), Nan Hayworth (R-Mount Kisco)
Old Vote (NY-18): Obama 62 McCain 38
New Vote: Obama 62 McCain 37
Average: Dem 62 Rep 38
Description: Aside from the awkward-looking finger into Rockland County, this is actually a pretty neat district. Needless to say, Hayworth would lose to Lowey here, and will probably go north so she can lose in the primary instead.
NY-18
Incumbent: OPEN
Old Vote (NY-19): Obama 51 McCain 48
New Vote: Obama 45 McCain 54
Average: Dem 48 Rep 52
Description: If Greg Ball doesn't primary Nan Hayworth's ass here, it'll be someone else. This district is a blatant gerrymandered Republican vote sink and completely unrecognizable to her. There are tons of competing interests here that will all have to be satisfied for the same Congresscritter, but hey, that's what you get for being a Republican-leaning area :)
NY-19
Incumbent: Bill Owens (D-Plattsburgh)
Old Vote: (NY-20) Obama 51 McCain 48 (NY-23) Obama 52 McCain 47
New Vote: Obama 53 McCain 45
Average: Dem 55 Rep 45
Description: This district is numbered as Chris Gibson's but really belongs to Bill Owens. By dropping some red territory and gaining Saratoga Springs and Glens Falls, he gets slightly safer.
NY-20
Incumbent: Chris Gibson (R-Kinderhook), Paul Tonko (D-Amsterdam)
Old Vote (NY-21): Obama 58 McCain 40
New Vote: Obama 59 McCain 39
Average: Dem 61 Rep 39
Description: Tonko keeps most of his base but also gets some new territory along the eastern border. Obviously, Gibson has no chance here. He'll probably run in the new 18th or 19th (and lose to Bill Owens).
NY-21
Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey (D-Hurley)
Old Vote (NY-22): Obama 59 McCain 39
New Vote: Obama 58 McCain 41
Average: Dem 58 Rep 42
Description: This district is significantly reconfigured, dropping its finger through Binghamton into Ithaca. Hopefully the new territory will encourage Hinchey to retire and we can get someone who doesn't underperform the lean of the district. Roughing up a reporter in a wave year for the opposite party is not smart!
NY-22
Incumbent: Richard Hanna (R-Barneveld)
Old Vote (NY-24): Obama 51 McCain 48
New Vote: Obama 46 McCain 52
Average: Dem 50 Rep 50 (Dem advantage)
Description: Hanna should enjoy this district as he gets safer while keeping a good deal of his territory, including Rome/Utica.
NY-23
Incumbent: Ann Marie Buerkle (R-Syracuse)
Old Vote (NY-25): Obama 56 McCain 43
New Vote: Obama 61 McCain 37
Average: Dem 60 Rep 40
Description: Ok, not only keeping Syracuse but also adding Cornell, SUNY Binghamton, and SUNY Cortland? Yeah, Buerkle was a fluke to begin with, but now she's just fucked.
NY-24
Incumbent: Kathy Hochul (D-Snyder)
Old Vote (NY-26): Obama 46 McCain 52
New Vote: Obama 56 McCain 43
Average: Dem 52 Rep 48
Description: This ugly district looks different, but most of it is actually territory that Hochul currently represents. She will have to introduce herself to voters in Elmira and Geneva, but most of them will be pulling the lever for her.
NY-25
Incumbent: Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo)
Old Vote (NY-27): Obama 54 McCain 44
New Vote: Obama 55 McCain 43
Average: Dem 50 Rep 50 (Dem advantage)
Description: Higgins gets more of Erie and, to keep him safe, more of Buffalo. He'll be fine. Don't get freaked out by the average; it's skewed by Carl Paladino's wild overperformance in the Buffalo area.
NY-26
Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D-Fairport)
Old Vote (NY-28): Obama 69 McCain 30
New Vote: Obama 59 McCain 40
Average: Dem 60 Rep 40
Description: I've heard that Slaughter wants a district wholly within Monroe, so her wish is my command. While losing lots of blue territory, she does add SUNY Brockport.
NY-27
Incumbent: Tom Reed (R-Corning)
Old Vote (NY-29): Obama 48 McCain 51
New Vote: Obama 44 McCain 55
Average: Dem 44 Rep 56
Description: Still a Southern Tier-based seat, but now it's safe for Reed.
That's it! Feedback would be much appreciated.