Suzanne Bonamici
SurveyUSA for KATU-TV. 10/17-20. Likely voters. Democratic MoE ±4.4%, Republican MoE ±4.7%. (no trendlines):
Suzanne Bonamici (D): 52
Brad Avakian (D): 14
Brad Witt (D): 9
Others (D) : 4
Undecided: 21
Rob Cornilles (R): 66
Lisa Michaels (R): 7
Jim Greenfield (R): 4
Others (R): 3
Undecided: 20
The next House special election -- to fill the tiger costume vacated by David Wu earlier this year -- is fast approaching, and one of the things we'll have to watch on Election Day is the results from the primaries to choose nominees. (Oregon is an all-mail election state, and ballots dropped yesterday; they're due by Nov. 8. The general special election won't be until January 31.) If today's poll from SurveyUSA is any indication, though, it doesn't look like there'll be much drama on election night.
In the not-a-surprise department, businessman and 2010 nominee Rob Cornilles is the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination again. Establishment support is clearly in his corner (and with other elected Republicans from the district all having taken a pass, he only faces a few tea-flavored stragglers), and he retains leftover name rec from last year.
The surprising part is how thoroughly state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici is dominating the Democratic field. Several months ago, I probably would have pointed to state Labor Commissioner (and Bonamici's predecessor in SD-17) Brad Avakian as the favorite here given his statewide familiarity, but Bonamici's fundraising advantage (EMILY's List-powered in part) has helped her get the jump on advertising. Even if the two labor-friendly candidates (state Rep. Brad Witt being the other) were able to morph together into one Super-Brad, he'd still be losing by a wide margin. With the exception of trade issues (not a surprise, as most other elected liberal Dems in the Pacific Rim-dependent Northwest also tend to vote in favor of free trade agreements), Bonamici doesn't seem any less progressive than the other Dem options here, though... and she'd certainly have to be viewed as the favorite going into the general, in this D+7 district.
UPDATE: Here's an interesting methodology note from this poll: SurveyUSA seems to be testing out a new method in the heavily weird wired Portland area. Respondents contacted by landline respond to a recorded announcement, but those contacted by cellphone (8% of Republicans, 13% of Dems) were "shown a questionnaire on their smartphone or other electronic device." I'm glad to see SUSA trying to stay on top of changing technologies, though trying to get people to take the time to respond to a text-based instrument may add a new bunch of response variables to the mix; it'll be interesting to see how it works out for them. Somewhat relatedly, SurveyUSA is also out with some interesting compare-and-contrast data today, drawn from their most recent national, New Jersey, and California samples, showing how much cellphone samples deviate from landline samples. For example, cellphone respondents have an approval rate for Barack Obama 12 points higher than landline respondents; the disparity on legalizing marijuana is much, much bigger than even that (38 percent).