Emblem of the Iowa state flag
So Rick Perry and Ron Paul look like they'll be be the first Republican presidential candidates to launch television ads in Iowa, home of the first-in-the-nation caucuses on Jan. 3. But take note of your calendars, because Dana Houle has a very good point:
For all the talk about Barack Obama being vulnerable, it’s important to recognize that the Republicans only going on the air now can be seen as a sign of their weakness. In 2007, Barack Obama began running Iowa ads in June. Hillary Clinton was on the air by August. By this point in 2007 both Bill Richardson & Chris Dodd had been on the air for months.
But the Democrats were well behind the first presidential candidate to launch a serious TV campaign. In February, 2007 Mitt Romney went on TV, and by early November he’d already run 14,000 ads in Iowa.
In fact, this late, late start might be why the Romney camp is suddenly talking up its chances of winning in Iowa, a state Romney's largely ignored this entire cycle. I'm very skeptical of Romney's ability to really ramp up operations in the Hawkeye State, though, on account of another point that Dana makes: His fundraising is way off his 2007 levels, when he spent $10 million on TV in Iowa alone.
So regardless of who throws down the most cash here in the end, the fact is that the GOP field is badly trailing compared to where Obama was at this time four years ago. And Obama, unlike these guys, doesn't have to contend with a primary fight this time.