Hurricane Rina formed in the Caribbean Sea this afternoon, after undergoing some pretty fast intensification this morning. At the 11AM EST advisory, Rina was a tropical storm with 45 MPH winds. An Air Force Recon plane investigated the storm a little while ago, and found that the winds had increased to 75 MPH, making Rina a hurricane. While the system underwent a period of good strengthening, this sudden jump in intensity probably means the NHC underestimated the strength of the storm this morning.
Rina on visible satellite at 3:15 PM Eastern Time
Rina on infrared satellite at 3:15 PM Eastern Time
Rina is about 360 miles east of Cozumel, Mexico right now, and is expected to move towards the west-northwest over the next few days. It is forecast to become a major Category 3 before approaching the Belizean/Mexican coast by the end of the week.
Here's the NHC forecast. Click to enlarge in a new tab/window.
A pretty good cold front is expected to swing down over the southern United States and into the Gulf of Mexico starting midweek, which will serve to shoot Rina off to the northeast away from the Mexican coast. The problem with this is what is off to the northeast -- Florida.
Here's the surface pressure/frontal analysis from the HPC for 7:00AM EST Thursday:
HPC forecast for 7:00AM EST Friday:
HPC forecast for 7:00AM EST Saturday:
The models are still conflicted on what Rina will do once the cold front reaches Rina. The NHC (as well as a few of the models and what I feel will probably happen) are banking on the cold front to sweep Rina off to the northeast out towards the Atlantic. Some of the models have the hurricane doing a 180 and moving back towards the southeast in an attempt to outrun and stay ahead of the cold front, and some have it run off to the northeast riding along the cold front.
Between now and the time the front approaches, Rina will be in a little safe haven for tropical cyclones. Little shear, nice and warm tropical airmass and sea surface temperatures, and little land interaction between its current position and Belize/Mexico.
Right now (and as always) anything can happen, but it's worth keeping an eye on for folks from Tampa south to Key West as we progress through the week. As we've seen time and time again (highlighted by today's sudden jump in intensity), don't put too much stock into what the NHC predicts when it comes to storm intensity. While they have track predictions down pretty good, due to limitation in knowledge and technology, intensity forecasts generally suck.
2:04 PM PT: Updated location/track forecast for Rina as of 5PM EST. Click to enlarge in new tab/window.