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One big change in the Nevada Legislature is that the special masters nested the Assembly seats inside each Senate district, so I go by Senate district and list the two Assembly seats. The Assembly had long been the Democratic stronghold, while the Senate was in Republican hands. Then Democrats won control of the Senate in 2008, and held it in 2010. I know that Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland, Alaska, and New Jersey (though no separated Assembly districts there). It will be interesting to see how many of these sets are split. For information on the Senate Districts, read my previous diary on that. I did leave the Senate stats to compare the Assembly seats, since the Assembly District numbers do not easily match up. And as always, with Canadian style riding names for each seat. I have the actual maps on here. If you look closer, you can see how special pains were made to pair as few incumbents together as possible.
You may notice there are an incredible number of freshmen Assemblymen. the 12-year term limit kicked in last year. Nearly half the members are freshmen. Only two Assemblymen are termed out in 2012. Note that there are only four Hispanic districts at or over 50%. The special masters found that the last part of the Gingles test was not met, in that there was not white bloc voting to prevent Hispanics from electing the candidate of their choice. They did create 11 seats with a Hispanic population over 30%. The bottom line is that Democrats have an edge in 25 (20 safe, 3, likely, 2 lean) seats, the GOP in 15 (9 safe, 2 likely, 4 lean), with two tossups. The current breakdown is 26-16 Democrat, down from 28-14. Do any of you think I was too pessimistic about Democratic chances in the northwest part of Las Vegas in Assembly Districts 2, 4, 9, and 13? If so, that changes the breakdown to 25D, 11R, 6 tossup.

Rural Nevada/Cow Counties

Senators from the Cow Counties have always had more influence than their numbers due to key Senators within the GOP leadership. Today, only one of these three seats does not reach into Clark or Washoe Counties. Take those parts out, and the cow counties only would get a little over two seats.
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Senate District 17- Fallon-Tahoe, Mike McGinness (R), term expires 2012, term limited, and James Settelmeyer (R), term expires 2014, McCain 58, Obama 39, GOP 64, Dem 36, 13% Hispanic, Reg.: GOP 50.15, Dem 28.34

Assembly District 38- Fallon-Fernley- Tom Grady (R), elected 2002, McCain 61, Obama 36, GOP 66, Dem 34, 13% Hispanic, 2% Black, 3% Asian, Reg.: GOP 50.36, Dem 27.85
This is a rural seat that Democrats don't have a chance in. Fallon Naval Air Station is a major employer here. SAFE REPUBLICAN

Assembly District 39- Minden-Virginia City- Tahoe South- Kelly Kite (R), elected 2010, McCain 56, Obama 42, GOP 63, Dem 37, 12% Hispanic, 1% Black, 3% Asian, Reg.: GOP 44.90, Dem 34.57
This is the less Republican of these two seats, but Democrats will still not win here. Most of the population here is in Douglas County, which grew faster than Clark County. It is also the whitest district in the state at 89%. The Moonlite Bunny Ranch, the most famous brothel in Nevada is located here. SAFE REPUBLICAN

Senate District 19-  Ely-Elko-Pahrump- Dean Rhoads (R), term expires 2012, term limited, McCain 62, Obama 34, GOP 67, Dem 33, 17% Hispanic, Reg.: GOP 47.94, Dem 30.84

Assembly District 33- Elko-Ely- John Ellison (R-33), elected 2010, and Pete Goicoechea (R-35), elected 2002, McCain 68, Obama 29, GOP 73, Dem 27, 20% Hispanic, 2% Black, 1% Asian, Reg.: GOP 52.70, Dem 26.70
This is the most Republican Assembly seat in the state. For all practical purposes, this might as well be part of Utah. This area has a large Mormon population. There will be a member/member race here unless one of these members retire. SAFE REPUBLICAN

Assembly District 36- Pahrump-Rural Clark- Ed Goedhart (R), elected 2006, McCain 54, Obama 42, GOP 60, Dem 40, 15% Hispanic, 6% Black, 3% Asian, Reg.: GOP 43.75, Dem 34.47
About 70% of this seat is located outside Clark County, and most of the population is in Pahrump in Nye County, which has had a population explosion over the last thirty years, due to its proximity to Las Vegas. The area leans strongly to the GOP. The county seat of Nye County is in Tonopah, which is three hours away. There may be a move to make southern Nye County a separate county or to move the county seat to Pahrump. SAFE REPUBLICAN

Reno/Sparks/Carson City

Democrats did not come out well in the Assembly seats in the Reno area. They currently hold four seats, and they have a chance to lose one if Skip Daly cannot hold in his new seat.

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Senate District 13- Sparks-East Reno- Shelia Leslie (D), term expires 2014, Obama 65, McCain 33, Dem 61, GOP 39, 34% Hispanic, Reg.: Dem 46.33, GOP 28.97

Assembly District 24- Downtown Reno- David Bobzien (D), elected 2006, Obama 70, McCain 28, Dem 66, GOP 34, 34% Hispanic, 4% Black, 7% Asian, Reg.: Dem 47.66, GOP 25.32
Instead of trying to make one Hispanic majority seat, there special masters drew two seats roughly one third Hispanic. This is the best performing Democratic seat outside of Clark County and includes the casinos on Virginia Street. SAFE DEMOCRAT

Assembly District 30- Sparks- Debbie Smith (D), elected 2004 (previously served 01-02), Obama 61, McCain 36, Dem 58, GOP 42, 35% Hispanic, 4% Black, 7% Asian, Reg.: Dem 44.94, GOP 32.75
Sitting to the east of Reno, Sparks is the much smaller twin city of Reno. This is the town that gave us Karl Rove, but he would lose here. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Senate District 14- North Washoe-Battle Mountain- Don Gustavson (R), term expires 2014,, McCain 53, Obama 45, GOP 58, Dem 42, 19% Hispanic, Reg.: GOP 44.39, Dem 34.64

Assembly District 31- Golden Valley-Northeast Sparks- Skip Daly (D), elected 2010, Obama 53, McCain 45, GOP 52, Dem 48, 21% Hispanic, 3% Black, 6% Asian, Reg.: GOP 41.24, Dem 37.69
This is a rather bizarrely shaped district, which was designed to not pair two incumbents that lived near each other. The northern part is Republican, but the Sparks section is Democratic. Skip Daly will have a tough time here. TOSSUP

Assembly District 32- Spanish Springs-Battle Mountain-Winnemucca- Ira Hansen (R), elected 2010, McCain 57, Obama 40, GOP 62, Dem 38, 17% Hispanic, 2% Black, 2% Asian, Reg.: GOP 47.72, Dem 31.41
These is a deceivingly shaped district. Despite its size, most of the population is in Washoe County, so it is not listed as a cow county. However, it votes like a cow county district and takes in the strongest GOP precincts in Washoe County. SAFE REPUBLICAN

Senate District 15- West Washoe- Greg Brower (R), term expires 2014, Obama 56, McCain 42, Dem 52, GOP 48, 18% Hispanic, Reg.: GOP 39.36, Dem 38.71

Assembly District 25- West Washoe-South Reno- Pat Hickey (R), elected 2010 (previously served 97-98), Obama 51, McCain 47, GOP 53, Dem 47, 13% Hispanic, 2% Black, 6% Asian, Reg.: GOP 44.36, Dem 35.57
This half of SD-15 is the more Republican half, and it has a much higher turnout rate, which explains the Senate seat being a little more GOP than the half way point between the districts. While this seat did narrowly vote for President Obama, the GOP does have a clear edge here. LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Assembly District 27- West Reno-Sun Valley- Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D), elected 2010, Obama 62, McCain 36, Dem 58, GOP 42, 23% Hispanic, 3% Black, 6% Asian, Reg.: Dem 42.49, GOP 33.37
This is last of the three strongly Democratic seats outside of Clark County. It starts in West Reno and wraps around back to the Sun Valley. SAFE DEMOCRAT

Senate District 16- South Washoe-Carson City- Ben Kiechhefer (R), term expires 2014, Obama 49+, McCain 49-, GOP 55, Dem 45, 17% Hispanic, Reg.: GOP 45.92, Dem 33.25

Assembly District 26- Hidden Valley-Tahoe North- Randy Kirner (R), elected 2010, McCain 50, Obama 48, GOP 57, Dem 43, 14% Hispanic, 2% Black, 7% Asian, Reg.: GOP 46.71, Dem 32.23
While the Presidential numbers don't bear it out, this is the more Republican of these two SD-16 Assembly seats. President Obama over performed around Lake Tahoe. SAFE REPUBLICAN

Assembly District 40- Carson City-Steamboat- Pete Livermore (R), elected 2010, McCain 49, Obama 48, GOP 54, Dem 46, 19% Hispanic, 2% Black, 3% Asian, Reg.: GOP 44.90, Dem 34.57
This is basically a Carson City seat with enough of Washoe County to make the population numbers equal. The Washoe section is strongly Republican, putting this seat out of reach. SAFE REPUBLICAN

Las Vegas/Clark County

30 seats are now wholly within Clark County. Only two of these seats voted for McCain. In addition to seats shifting across the state, seats had to shift within Clark County to reflect population changes. With the opening of the 215 around Las Vegas, population exploded to the west and south, and to the north. Much of the 215 is so new that it does not appear on the old district maps. The ideal district size is around 64k, and two seats had over 220k. Term limits are six terms, so any member elected in 2000 cannot run in 2012.
I listed four seats in the west/northwest as Lean GOP- AD-2, 4, 9, and 13. They may move Democratic soon, but they are currently give Republicans a slight edge (for now).

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Senate District 1- Northeast Metro Vegas- John Lee (D), term expires 2012, Obama 64, McCain 34, Dem 62, GOP 38, 27% Hispanic, 22% Black, 11% Asian, Reg.: Dem 49.56, GOP 28.39

Assembly District 1- North Las Vegas-North Central- Marilyn Kirkpatrick (D), elected 2004, Obama 62 McCain 37, Dem 60, GOP 40, 24% Hispanic, 19% Black, 10% Asian, Reg.: Dem 48.03, GOP 29.95
This district moved completely north of Craig Road. Very little of its old version was like this before. This is a minority coalition district. SAFE DEMOCRAT, Reg.: Dem 48.03, GOP 29.95

Assembly District 17- North Las Vegas-Northeast- Kelvin Atkinson (D), elected 2002, Obama 67, McCain 32, Dem 64, GOP 36, 36% Hispanic, 11% Black, 11% Asian, Reg.: Dem 51.47, GOP 26.46
This seat was about 32k too big and it lost most of its territory east of I-15. It also moved north of the 215, so there is a lot of potential growth to come here. Whether this seat continues to have an African-American Assemblyman will be questionable, but the member is almost certain to be a Democrat. SAFE DEMOCRAT

Senate District 2- North Las Vegas East- Mo Dennis (D), term expires 2014, Obama 76, McCain 22, Dem 79, GOP 21, 67% Hispanic, 12% Black, Reg.: Dem 61.9, GOP 16.49

Assembly District 11- Downtown Las Vegas-College Park- Olivia Diaz (D), elected 2010, Obama 77, McCain 20, Dem 81, GOP 19, 68% Hispanic, 12% Black, 3% Asian, Reg.: Dem 62.93, GOP 15.38
If you visit one of the downtown casinos and the Fremont Street Experience, you would be in this district. It is the strongly Hispanic district in the state as well. SAFE DEMOCRAT

Assembly District 28- Sunrise Manor West- Lucy Flores (D), elected 2010, Obama 75, McCain 23, Dem 76, GOP 24, 67% Hispanic, 13% Black, 4% Asian, Reg.: Dem 60.95, GOP 17.52
This is also a heavily Hispanic seat. Both of these seats needed to gain more than 20k persons, so they both shifted east. SAFE DEMOCRAT

Senate District 3- Las Vegas West- Valerie Weiner (D), term expires 2012, term limited, Obama 63, McCain 34, Dem 64, GOP 34, 43% Hispanic, 12% Black, 7% Asian, Reg.: 51.68, GOP 26.86

Assembly District 3- Woodcrest-Las Vegas Center- Peggy Pierce, (D) elected 2002, Obama 64, McCain 34, Dem 65, GOP 35, 43% Hispanic, 13% Black, 5% Asian, Reg.: Dem 52.57, GOP 26.18
This district changed from an east-west seat along Charleston to a north-south seat to the west of Rancho Drive. It improved for Democrats a few points. SAFE DEMOCRAT

Assembly District 10- Charlestown East-Downtown West- Joe Hogan (D-10), elected 2004 and Tick Segerblom (D-9), elected 2006, Obama 63, McCain 35, Dem 63, GOP 37, 44% Hispanic, 11% Black, 9% Asian, Reg.: Dem 50.79, GOP 27.55
Two incumbents live in this seat, to accommodate the old 9th District to be moved to the northwest. The old 10th district ran almost all the way to Seven Hills and the old 9th District ran east-west along Sahara. This seat is much more compact and almost completely west of I-15. SAFE DEMOCRAT

Senate District 4- North Las Vegas West- Steven Horsdorf (D), term expires 2012 (running for Congress), Obama 78, McCain 20, Dem 78, GOP 22, 47% Hispanic, 28% Black, Reg.: Dem 64.96, GOP 16.57

Assembly District 6- Downtown North-Vegas Heights- Harvey Munford (D), elected 2004, Obama 87, McCain 11, Dem 88, GOP 12, 54% Hispanic, 33% Black, 3% Asian, Reg.: Dem 72.01, GOP 11.00
If you were looking for the most Democratic Assembly seat, here it is. The old version of this seat could have been named "Spaghetti Bowl" since it went every direction from it, but now it is entirely north of the junction. It ate into part of AD-7 to keep its black percentage up. It should keep an African-American Assemblyman despite the Hispanic majority. SAFE DEMOCRAT

Assembly District 7- North Las Vegas- Dina Neal (D), elected 2010, Obama 72, McCain 26, Dem 72, GOP 28, 40% Hispanic, 25% Black, 7% Asian, Reg.: Dem 58.62, GOP 21.58
This seat changed very little except to make it more compact with a northern boundary along Craig road. This a very diverse seat, which should keep an African-American Assemblyman. SAFE DEMOCRAT

Senate District 5- Green Valley-Henderson- Shirley Breeden (D), term expires 2012, Obama 55, McCain 43, Dem 53, GOP 47, 17% Hispanic, 7% Black, 11% Asian, Reg.: Dem 41.58, GOP 35.63

Assembly District 21- Green Valley-Silverado Hills- Scott Sherwood (R-21), elected 2010, and Speaker John Oceguera (D-16), elected 2000, term-limited, Obama 61, McCain 37, Dem 55, Dem 45, 18% Hispanic, 7% Black, 14% Asian, Reg.: Dem 42.46, GOP 34.59
This is the stronger Democratic part of the Senate district. Strangely, two incumbents live here, but John Oceguera, who represents the current AD-16 is running for Congress, so Sherwood will have the race to himself. This seat flipped to Democrats in 2008 and back to Republicans in 2010. However, this is a much different seat. It loses its Republican areas south of I-215 in the Ranch areas and moves north. Sherwood is in big trouble. LIKELY DEMOCRAT

Assembly District 29- Henderson North- April Mastroluca (D), elected 2008, Obama 53, McCain 44, Dem 52, GOP 48, 17% Hispanic, 7% Black, 8% Asian, Reg.: Dem 40.80, GOP 36.55
Republicans would have preferred pairing this Assembly seat with AD-22 to create a mostly Henderson seat, which would have made for a fairly Republican Senate district, but the special masters split Henderson along I-215 and I-515. The side of Henderson to the north leans slightly to the Democrats. However, Republicans do well in the tail south of I-215. This seat was a north-south district sitting to the west of I-515, but moves to the east-west version north of I-215 and east of I-515. This seat leans Democrat, but not by much, and not as much as it was before. LEAN DEMOCRAT

Senate District 6- Charleston-Summerlin- Allison Copening, term expires 2012, Obama 56, McCain 42, Dem 55, GOP 45, 21% Hispanic, 12% Black, 9% Asian, Reg.: Dem 43.71, GOP 34.80

Assembly District 34- Summerlin-Desert Shores- William Horne (D), elected 2002, Obama 58, McCain 40, Dem 57, GOP 43, 22% Hispanic, 11% Black, 9% Asian, Reg.: Dem 44.29, GOP 33.43
While Allison Copening got a big break here, both of these seats in the Assembly lost 10% of its Democratic registration edge. This seat needed an extra 18k. It moved towards from Charleston Boulevard to the south and ate up a lot of the old AD-3. SAFE DEMOCRAT

Assembly District 37- Charleston Heights-Pioneer Park- Marcus Conklin (D), elected 2002, Obama 55, McCain 43, Dem 54, GOP 46, 19% Hispanic, 12% Black, 9% Asian, Reg.: Dem 43.1, GOP 36.12
This seat was 13k short, and had to grow, which it did to the west. This made this seat more Republican, but not to the point Democrats would lose the seat in most years. LIKELY DEMOCRAT

Senate District 7- Paradise- David Parks (D), term expires 2012, Obama 63, McCain 35, Dem 61, GOP 39, 33% Hispanic, 10% Black, 9% Asian, Reg.: Dem 48.79, GOP 27.75

Assembly District 18- East Las Vegas-South Valley- Richard Carrillo (D), elected 2010, Obama 65, McCain 33, Dem 63, GOP 37, 36% Hispanic, 11% Black, 9% Asian, Reg.: Dem 50.58, GOP 26.10
This seat had to lose about 8k, and it lost its western parts. Other than that, it is similar in shape to its old version. The Hispanic number increased a few points. SAFE DEMOCRAT

Assembly District 20- Paradise-Southeast Las Vegas- no incumbent, Obama 61, McCain 37, Dem 59, GOP 41, 30% Hispanic, 10% Black, 9% Asian, Reg.: Dem 47.24, GOP 29.18
This a new seat, which has the old number for the rural Clark seat that went into Mesquite, now numbered AD-19. This is a very diverse seat in the unincorporated Paradise area. There is a sizeable and growing Hispanic population here. SAFE DEMOCRAT

Senate District 8- West Sahara-Lone Mountain- Barbara Cegavske (R), term expires 2014, term limited, Obama 51, McCain 47, GOP 52, Dem 48, 12% Hispanic, 8% Black, 14% Asian, Reg.: GOP 39.64, Dem 38.47

Assembly District 2- Summerlin South-Northwest Town Center- John Himbrick (R), elected 2008, Obama 52, McCain 46, GOP 51, Dem 49, 13% Hispanic, 9% Black, 13% Asian, Reg.: GOP 39.40, Dem 38.17
These seats were both below population, so they were not in the high growth areas. District 2 needed gain 12k and it moved south where the vast majority is south of Sahara, which also includes an empty area for future growth, likely towards Democrats in that area.. Both incumbents in this area moved from seats with a 5% GOP registration edge to the current 1%. The reason that number is important is that both of these incumbents won by 4% in 2008. LEAN REPUBLICAN

Assembly District 4- Lone Mountain-Sun City-Peccole Ranch- Richard McArthur (R), elected 2008, Obama 51, McCain 48, GOP 51, Dem 49, 12% Hispanic, 8% Black, 15% Asian, Reg.: GOP 39.85, Dem 38.74
This seat was 14k short. It was a seat in the northwest, but now it is a C shaped district with the majority of the seat along Sahara to its north or south. Both of these seats moved south to accommodate the new seat in the northwest. However, McArthur could have easily been placed in the new 9th AD, making it unnecessary to create this oddly shaped seat. This seat may move Democratic over the decade. LEAN REPUBLICAN

Senate District 9- Southwest Clark- Elisabeth Halsted (R), term expires 2014, Obama 60, McCain 39, Dem 52, GOP 48, 17% Hispanic, 10% Black, 25% Asian, Reg.: Dem 42.15, GOP 33.21

Assembly District 5- Southwest Clark- Marilyn Dondero Loop (D), elected 2008, Obama 61, McCain 38, Dem 55, GOP 45, 17% Hispanic, 11% Black, 24% Asian, Reg.: Dem 43.79, GOP 31.59
This seat used to be a small district along Desert Inn Road, with a southern boundary at Flamingo. Now, the majority of the seat is south of Flamingo. This had the effect of making the seat a few points more Democratic. The southwestern corner of this district is still largely empty, so this seat will grow. SAFE DEMOCRAT

Assembly District 35- Highlands-Arden- no incumbent, Obama 58, McCain 41, Dem 50, GOP 50, 16% Hispanic, 8% Black, 26% Asian, Reg.: Dem 40.46, GOP 34.87
This seat has the biggest deviation between the Democratic performance and the Obama number, which is true of the Las Vegas seats with high Asian populations. This is also the Cow County seat that was lost to Las Vegas. Elisabeth Halsted lives here and could have a better chance at this open Assembly seat than her current Senate seat. There is also a lot of open territory which will continue to fill up over the next decade. I may overly cautious on this one though. TOSSUP

Senate District 10- Strip-UNLV- Ruben Kihuen (D), term expires 2014, Obama 67, McCain 31, Dem 68, GOP 32, Hispanic 42%, Black 12%, Asian 8%, Reg.: Dem 53.72, GOP 22.61

Assembly District 15- Winchester-East Las Vegas- Elliot Anderson (D), elected 2010, Obama 65, McCain 33, Dem 67, GOP 33, 45% Hispanic, 10% Black, 6% Asian, Reg.: Dem 54.55, GOP 23.12
This rather small seat sits east of the strip and the downtown area. It has a very high Hispanic population. To reflect population growth, this seat moved north to I-515. SAFE DEMOCRAT

Assembly District 16- Strip-McCarran-UNLV- no incumbent, Obama 69, McCain 29, Dem 68, GOP 32, 40% Hispanic, 14% Black, 10% Asian, Reg.: Dem 52.81, GOP 22.05
When most people visit Las Vegas, they never leave this district. It includes the airport and the Las Vegas Strip. It also takes in the areas just to the east and UNLV. With a 40% Hispanic population, this seat has an opportunity for a Hispanic Assemblyman if they can win the Democratic primary. There is no incumbent here, since term-limited Congressional candidate Speaker John Oceguera lives in another district. This one has a small part of the old 16th district, but it is mostly made of old parts of AD-9, AD-10, and AD-41, to accommodate the creation of a new seat in the northwest. SAFE DEMOCRAT

Senate District 11- Spring Valley- Michael Schneider (D), term expires 2012, term-limited, Obama 62, McCain 36, Dem 60, GOP 40, 24% Hispanic, 12% Black, 19% Asian, Reg.: Dem 47.15, GOP 28.83

Assembly District 8- South/Southwest Las Vegas- Jason Frierson (D), elected 2010, Obama 60, McCain 38, Dem 57, GOP 43, 20% Hispanic, 12% Black, 21% Asian, Reg.: Dem 45.06, GOP 30.71
This seat moves from a north-south district to a square shaped one with the 215 running through it. It is a few points more Republican since it moved southwest to reflect population changes as it was 14k short on its size. SAFE DEMOCRAT

Assembly District 42- Spring Valley-Flamingo West- Irene Bustamante-Adams (D), elected 2010, Obama 64, McCain 34, Dem 63, GOP 37, 29% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 17% Asian, Reg.: Dem 49.45, GOP 26.76
This seat also needed to gain about 15k. It is the more Democratic of these two seats, and is relatively compact. SAFE DEMOCRAT

Senate District 12- Boulder City- Rural Clark- Joe Hardy (R), term expires 2014, McCain 53, Obama 45, GOP 57, Dem 43, 16% Hispanic, 6% Black, 6% Asian, Reg.: GOP 42.02, Dem 36.07

Assembly District 19- Henderson East-Nellis-Mesquite- Steven Brooks (D-19), elected 2010, and Cresent Hardy (R-20), elected 2010, McCain 51, Obama 47, GOP 56, Dem 44, 22% Hispanic, 8% Black, 5% Asian, Reg.: Dem 38.84, GOP 38.51
Despite its number, this is a lot closer to the old AD-20, which was a rural Clark County seat, where the incumbent Hardy (R) lived in Mesquite, all the way near the border with Arizona. The old AD-19 was a northeastern seat near Nellis AFB. This seat takes a small amount of territory near Nellis and pairs it with heavily GOP parts of the Henderson area, before moving north to Mesquite along the Colorado River. Steven Brooks is not going to be winning here. SAFE REPUBLICAN

Assembly District 23- Boulder City-Clark South-Laughlin Melissa Woodbury (R), elected 2008, McCain 54, Obama 44, GOP 58, Dem 42, 10% Hispanic, 4% Black, 8% Asian, Reg.: GOP 44.83, Dem 33.86
This seat goes from a Henderson to Boulder City seat to taking in the southern reaches of Henderson, and everything south to Laughlin. This is the most Republican seat in Clark County. SAFE REPUBLICAN

Senate District 18- Northwest Clark- no incumbent, term expires 2012, Obama 50, McCain 48, GOP 51, Dem 49, 15% Hispanic, 11% Black, 8% Asian, Reg.: GOP 39.50, Dem 39.11

Assembly District 9- Northwest Las Vegas-Mountain Shadows- no incumbent, Obama 50, McCain 48, GOP 52, Dem 48, 16% Hispanic, 11% Black, 8% Asian, Reg.: Dem 39.38, GOP 39.15
Both of these Assembly seats in the Northwest part of the Las Vegas Metro are nearly identical politically. They both lean Republican, but voted narrowly for President Obama. LEAN REPUBLICAN

Assembly District 13- Elks-Silverstone Ranch- Scott Hammond (R), elected 2010, Obama 50, McCain 49, GOP 51, Dem 49, 14% Hispanic, 11% Black, 8% Asian, Reg.: GOP 39.87, Dem 38.82
The old version of District 13 was truly incredible. It was so overpopulated, four Assembly seats had to be drawn from it alone. Most of the western and northern growth in the Las Vegas area occurred there. Now it is bound in the northwest part of the metro area. A Republican should have an edge here for now. LEAN REPUBLICAN

Senate District 20- Henderson-Seven Hills- Michael Roberson (R), term expires 2014, Obama 54, McCain 45, GOP 50+, Dem 50-, 15% Hispanic, 7% Black, 15% Asian, Reg.: Dem 39.01, GOP 38.48

Assembly District 22- Henderson South- Lynn Stewart (R), elected 2006, Obama 50, McCain 48, GOP 53, Dem 47, 13% Hispanic, 5% Black, 11% Asian, Reg.: GOP 41.23, Dem 36.99
This was the other enormous seat, with a population large enough for about 3.5 seats. It used to wrap around the southern half of the Las Vegas metro area, but now it is in the Henderson area south of I-215. LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Assembly District 41- McCarran to Seven Hills- Paul Aizley (D), elected 2008, Obama 57, McCain 41, Dem 52, GOP 48, 18% Hispanic, 10% Black, 18% Asian, Reg.: Dem 41.61, GOP 34.92
This seat needed to gain about 16k, and it moved south, losing all territory north of I-215. It was a D+18 registration edge, now it is only about D+7. It takes in more of the Henderson area, as well as part of the wealthy Seven Hills area. Aizley will have a tougher race than before. LIKELY DEMOCRAT

Senate District 21- Sunrise Manor-East Las Vegas- Mark Manendo (D), term expires 2014, Obama 62, McCain 36, Dem 60, GOP 40, 41% Hispanic, 12% Black, 10% Asian, Reg.: Dem 51.15, GOP 27.42

Assembly District 12- Sunrise Manor East- James Ohrenshall (D), elected 2006, Obama 57, McCain 41, Dem 54, GOP 46, 33% Hispanic, 11% Black, 13% Asian, Reg.: Dem 47.49, GOP 31.73
This seat changed a lot. It needed to gain 10k. It was a small district running along Sahara, but now it has a big chunk of territory to the east, which will start to fill up. Areas to the east have gained a lot with the Hispanic population, so it should get more Democratic over time. This is no longer the solid Democratic seats it once was, but it should stay Democratic. There is a 15 point difference between these two Assembly seats in Democratic performance, one of the biggest in the state. LIKELY DEMOCRAT

Assembly District 14- East Las Vegas-Sunrise Manor West- Maggie Carlton (D), elected 2010, Obama 68, McCain 30, Dem 69, GOP 31, 50% Hispanic, 13% Black, 7% Asian, Reg.: Dem 55.48, GOP 22.31
In states with term limits, you see this- Carlton was termed out in the Senate, so she ran for the Assembly. This new seat is more Democratic than her old Assembly district, but is also 50% Hispanic. Her old seat was 2 to 1 registered Democrat, and this one is more than 3 to 1. SAFE DEMOCRAT

Bottom Line

Safe Democrat- 20- Districts 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 20, 24, 27, 28, 30, 34, 42
Likely Democrat- 3- Districts 12, 21, 41
Lean Democrat- 2- Districts 29, 37
Tossup- 2- Districts 31, 35
Lean Republican-4- Districts 2, 4, 9, 13
Likely Republican- 2- Districts 22, 25
Safe Republican- 9- Districts 19, 23, 26, 32, 33, 36, 38, 39, 40

Poll

How many seats will the Democrats win with this map?

17%6 votes
5%2 votes
8%3 votes
0%0 votes
8%3 votes
14%5 votes
34%12 votes
5%2 votes
5%2 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes

| 35 votes | Vote | Results

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    by SouthernINDem on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 11:27:19 AM PDT

  •  You say this map was below your expectations (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    but a guaranteed party majority and likely near super-majority (25/42 is 59.5%-ish) are pretty good, especially for a swing/recently red state.  

    The next question is: What are the divisions within the Democratic caucus, if any?  Are there "wings" based on ideology or personal loyalty, the kind that might fight it out in primaries or leadership votes?  That's of both electoral and policy relevance, I think.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

    by Xenocrypt on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 11:54:52 AM PDT

    •  Oh, and recced because (4+ / 0-)

      This took a lot of work, but is really useful to people trying to understand the country's elections and demographics.  I try to rec these kinds of diaries whenever I can.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 11:56:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I was expecting (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, Xenocrypt

      4 Democratic seats in Reno/Sparks instead of 3 and maybe one Democratic leaning seat in the west/northwest, but overall, they can't complain too much, especially since this wasn't even a Democratic drawn map.
      Democrats in the legislature in Nevada have been pretty united lately, but that may be thanks to Jim Gibbons and Brian Sandoval.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 12:02:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Wisconsin does this, too. (0+ / 0-)

    Three Assembly districts comprise one Senate district. Plus, the numbers are in-sync as well. Example: SD-01 is made up of AD-01, AD-02, and AD-03. My home SD-31 is made up of AD-91, AD-92, and AD-93.

    You take the SD number multiplied by three, and you get the highest numbered AD.

    19, male, WI-03 (home), WI-02 (college) (voting in WI-03, because my home needs my Democratic vote more than Madison does), -7.88, -4.26, End the FitzWalkerstanian police state by recalling Scott Walker!!!!

    by WisJohn on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 05:24:30 PM PDT

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