rankings cross posted as sk7326's personal site
For the first time this season, the #1 holds its position. Indeed the top 3 do. Frankly - I can't say I'm shocked. That said, with the surprising upsets that littered this week, we get some wild fluctuations. That said - as we've noted in previous editions - each week is another chapter in discovering what the season IS. A team like Dallas can slip from 11 to 16 because their schedule looks substantially less kind (more on that later). But this is all chatter for later. The rankings are below. More detail is here. As always, these are a team-to-team comparison based on RPI (schedule adjusted winning pct), schedule-adjusted scoring margin, head-to-head, records vs good teams and record vs common opponents:
1 (1). Green Bay Packers (7-0) 31 pairwins
2 (2). Greater Boston and Providence Patriots (5-1) 29
3 (3). San Francisco 49ers (5-1) 29
4 (5). Baltimore Edgar Allan Poems (4-2) 28
5 (8). New Orleans Saints (5-2) 26
6 (6). Buffalo Bulls (4-2) 26
7 (4). Detroit Lions (5-2) 25
8 (14). Northern New Jersey Jets (4-3) 22
9 (12). Cincinnati Other Paul Browns (4-2) 21
10 (19). San Diego Until They Move to Los Angeles Chargers (4-2) 20
11 (17). Chicago Bears (4-3) 20
12 (9). Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) 19
13 (18). Atlanta Falcons (4-3) 18
14 (7). Oakland Raiders Unless The Crypt Keeper's Family Moves Them (4-3) 18
15 (15). Houston Texas (4-3) 18
16 (11). Dallas Cowboys (3-3) 15
17 (13). Land Mass Surround Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3) 13
18 (10). Tennessee Non-Oilers (3-3) 13
19 (20). Northern New Jersey Giants (4-2) 12
20 (16). Washington Racial Slurs (3-3) 12
21 (27). Kansas City Sounds Like a Slur But Isn't (3-3) 10
22 (22). Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) 10
23 (21). Seattle Seahawks (2-4) 9
24 (23). Denver Broncos (2-4) 8
25 (25). Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) 6
26 (26). Carolina Panthers (2-5) 5
27 (28). Cleveland Paul Browns (3-3) 4
28 (24). Minnesota Vikings (1-6) 4
29 (29). Arizona Cactus Wrens (1-5) 3
30 (30). Saint Louis Rams (0-6) 0
31 (32). Indianapolis Colts (0-6) 0
32 (31). Miami Dolphins (0-6) 0
The two cases worth noting are Dallas and San Diego - the former went down 5 positions despite winning big, while the latter leapt into the Top 10 despite a close loss. Now I am not going to defend the eye test here - I don't think San Diego is quite distinctly better than the next 5 teams on the list, but they are a solid team. Their meteoric rise came from basically Kansas City no longer being that rotten a team as well as adding the Jets to their resume. Put those together and suddenly their profile has some good teams on it. Expect more fluctuations like this as a schedule's true quality is revealed.
For Dallas it was the opposite. Consider - coming into this week, their opponents: Jets (2-3 vs rest of league), 49ers (5-0), Lions (4-1), Redskins (3-1), Patriots (4-1) ... 18-6 overall. Add the Rams and this weeks results? Jets (3-3), 49ers (5-0), Lions (4-2), Redskins (3-2), Patriots (4-1), Rams (0-5). Put it together 19-13. So this is a big drop in schedule results and so the drop down the list. The schedule quartiles are below:
The 8 Toughest Slates so Far (Opp W/L vs rest of league, Avg of Opp W% and Opponents Opponents W%)
1. Buffalo Bills (20-11, .563)
2. San Francisco 49ers (19-13, .562)
3. Chicago Bears (25-17, .561)
4. Detroit Lions (22-17, .559)
5. Atlanta Falcons (23-17, .554)
6. Dallas Cowboys (19-13, .553)
7. New England Patriots (18-14, .552)
8. Oakland Raiders (22-15, .547)
The 8 Easiest
25. Baltimore Ravens (16-18, .483)
26. Houston Texans (18-21, .480)
27. San Diego Chargers (13-19, .465)
28. Pittsburgh Steelers (14-24, .432)
29. Cleveland Browns (10-22, .419)
30. New York Giants (10-20, .411)
31. Arizona Cardinals (12-21, .402)
32. Washington Redskins (9-22, .385)
The AFC North play the AFC South and NFC West this year - so expect schedule ratings to stay low, and it means Cincinnati still has some slack on its schedule. NFC East plays the NFC West, so Dallas definitely has an easier road ahead. By contrast, the Chargers are going to be tested - and their position in the Top 10 is very much not a given.
Anyway, food for thought and a distraction from the political discourse.
DISCLAIMER: Yes, I am aware of the irresponsible states which give football owners taxpayer gifts. Taxpayers should never be responsible for these sorts of things. But if similar communities can put up movie reviews, I this there is room for football. There are many other threads :).