Mayor Quan is in quite a pickle tonight.
Initially, a mostly unknown city manager took public responsibility for making the call to raid Occupy Oakland at both the Ogawa Plaza and Snow Park sites. The mayor's involvement was left to our imaginations--yes she had been on the phone with her top cop, no there were no more details. Today, Quan acknowledged her complicity in what we learned was a week-long planning process, but takes no real responsibility whatsoever for the raid or its aftermath.
Quan gave a broadcast interview carried by a local evening news program today and said she thought the raid was the right decision, but expressed concern about how it was carried out. She also made a point of reminding us she had traveled out of town and was not physically present the day of the raid. I'm paraphrasing, but that's the gyst of it--calculated to be convenient.
Yet that won't likely work, and her story may soon be changing--as it turns out, recalling the mayor of Oakland is not only possible, it's really possible. Some of her opponents successfully filed to recall her this very week, and now have about 158 days left to collect just under 20,000 valid signatures.
Now, it's not clear if a recall is likely--this is all evolving so rapidly. But there's actually a good chance it can happen, and here's why: the push to recall Quan initially came from the business-oriented right, not from Oakland's now-agitated left.
With fire coming from at least two fronts--chamber of commerce types and now Occupy sympathizers--the Mayor of Oakland has certainly now realized two things. First, many people are very angry about the police violence against peaceful protesters within a sympathetic movement, and second, those angry people now have a clear and effective route to firing the woman who is ultimately responsible for crushing Occupy Oakland. And while it would be hard for the nascent Occupy movement to pull off the recall all by itself, we are fortunate in being but one of two anti-Quan factions who are all but certain to cast a ballot in an unscheduled, off-year election. You know, the elections that draw like 20% of the electorate. The ones that can be swayed by an organized, passionate movement.
Oakland is not unsympathetic to the Occupy movement--the honking passers-by and looky-loos are on our side--so it shouldn't be hard to collect the requisite 126 valid signatures each day until the filing deadline. We have already gotten a glimpse of a 1,500-strong subset of Oaklanders who are passionate enough to fill the streets and risk being gassed, shot and arrested on a Tuesday night. These people will vote. These people will organize and volunteer. It's not too late for Quan to redeem herself, but the raid and subsequent police violence has the potential to end her career, and she knows it. We all know it.
A television reporter estimated 200 people are in Ogawa Plaza tonight--the third wave of resistance to yesterday morning's raid--and that was a couple hours ago. Workday protests can grow for quite a while after they've been called, as people head over after work and school. I expect tonight's crowd will grow large.
Mayor Quan shouldn't sleep well tonight, even though I predict peace will break out for the first time since her police crushed Occupy Oakland and deployed their chemical warfare against the people.