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Boehner crying
There will be lots of reasons for House Speaker John Boehner to cry November 2012
Public Policy Polling for the House Majority (super) PAC. 10/19-23. (No trend lines)

AR-01 MoE +/- 4.4%

Rich Crawford (R) 43%
Someone else 48%

GOP Congress favorability: 38 approve/49 disapprove

AR-02 MoE +/- 4.4%

Tim Griffin (R) 44%
Someone else 49%

GOP Congress favorability: 36 approve/53 disapprove

CA-07 MoE +/- 4.4%

Dan Lungren (R) 43%
Someone else 54%

GOP Congress favorability: 36 approve/53 disapprove

CA-10 MoE +/- 4.4%

Jeff Denham (R) 38%
Someone else 49%

GOP Congress favorability: 43 approve/41 disapprove

CA-26 MoE +/- 4.0%

Elton Gallegly (R) 42%
Someone else 48%

GOP Congress favorability: 40 approve/47 disapprove

CA-36 MoE +/- 4.4%

Mary Bono Mack (R) 43%
Someone else 55%

GOP Congress favorability: 34 approve/54 disapprove

CA-52 MoE +/- 3.6%

Brian Bilbray (R) 42%
Someone else 51%

GOP Congress favorability: 39 approve/53 disapprove

IL-10 MoE +/- 4.0%

Bob Dold (R) 42%
Someone else 50%

GOP Congress favorability: 39 approve/53 disapprove

IL-11 MoE +/- 4.4%

Judy Biggert (R) 41%
Someone else 52%

GOP Congress favorability: 44 approve/50 disapprove

IL-13 MoE +/- 4.4%

Tim Johnson (R) 33%
Someone else 53%

GOP Congress favorability: 30 approve/53 disapprove

IL-17 MoE +/- 3.2%

Bobby Schilling (R) 39%
Someone else 49%

GOP Congress favorability: 32 approve/54 disapprove

WI-07 MoE +/- 2.3%

Sean Duffy (R) 43%
Someone else 51%

GOP Congress favorability: 39 approve/52 disapprove

These Republican incumbents are all well under the magical 50 percent mark, which means they are endangered. Given the fierce anti-incumbent mood this cycle, candidates over 50 percent will likely be endangered. Voters want to clean house, and they're hungry to take it out on politicians in office.

Before you celebrate too much, realize that there are a similar number of Democrats in redrawn districts that will face equally uphill battles staying in office. Redistricting is expected to be a wash for both parties. Also, while the approval numbers for congressional Republicans is low in these districts, I'd be willing to bet that the numbers for Congressional Democrats isn't that much better.

But given that it's an anti-incumbent year, and given that Republicans hold more seats in the House, the brunt of the voters' anger will fall on them. You don't need polling to figure that out.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Oct 27, 2011 at 09:51 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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