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Suzanne Bonamici
Suzanne Bonamici

Elway for The Oregonian/KGW-TV. 10/24-26. Likely Democratic voters. MoE ±5.0%. (no trendlines):

Suzanne Bonamici (D): 45
Brad Avakian (D): 11
Brad Witt (D): 5
Others (D) : 1
Undecided: 38

With only a week and a half to go until the primary election (or, more precisely, the date mail-in ballots are due) to replace ex-Rep. David Wu, a Suzanne Bonamici vs. Rob Cornilles general election matchup is looking increasingly likely. Today's release from Seattle-based Elway Research has Bonamici more than doubling up on her combined opposition; this pretty closely mirrors last week's SurveyUSA poll of the race, which found Bonamici at 52, Avakian at 14, and Witt at 9 (although with much smaller undecideds: only 22 percent). The poll finds Bonamici particularly strong among female voters (where she's polling at 52 percent), but she also leads significantly among men as well; it really boils down to name rec, and Bonamici nailed that down early, thanks to an early fundraising edge that let her dominate the airwaves.

The ad that's been getting all the attention, lately, though, has been Rob Cornilles' "Running" ad, which seems to have put the Cornilles camp on the defensive all week, first with revelations (that began here at Daily Kos Elections) that part of it wasn't filmed in the First District and then with yesterday with Democratic OR-03 Rep. Earl Blumenauer's decision to do a small ad buy to re-run his own jogging-themed 1996 ad, as a means of tweaking Cornilles for basically copying that ad lock stock and barrel. That's still driving the news today (and keeping Cornilles off message), with Blumenauer dissing Cornilles' request for a rapprochement over ... what else ... a shared jog.

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