Welcome to the October edition of IL-12: The Fight to Keep It Blue.
This all started when Jerry Costello (D) retired on October 4th.
Several candidates on both sides had considered running in the open seat, but very few have announced they're running.
So far, the Dems have retired carpenter and 4-time primary opponent to Costello Kenneth Wiezer from Granite City, Madison County Chief Circuit Judge Ann Callis from Troy, and St. Clair County Regional School Superintendent Brad Harriman from O'Fallon declared to run.
The Evil Elephants have Illinois House 115th District's Mike Bost from Murphysboro, former Belleville mayor Rodger Cook from St. Libory, nurse and 2010 loser of the Primary Theresa Kormos from O'Fallon, 2010 Primary winner Teri Davis Newman from Highland, and 2010 Lt. Governor candidate (who lost to Sheila Simon) Jason Plummer running.
The district includes all or portions of the following counties: Alexander, Franklin, Jackson, Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, Perry, Pulaski, Randolph, St. Clair, Union, Williamson.
Cities: Alton, Belleville, Cairo, Carbondale, Du Quoin, East. St. Louis, Granite City, Marion, Mt. Vernon, Murphysboro, O'Fallon, Sparta, Waterloo.
Can we keep it Blue past 2012?
Match-up ratings and likely chances of winning their parties' primaries:
Wiezer v. Bost: Safe D
Wiezer v. Cook: Likely D
Wiezer v. Kormos: Safe D
Wiezer v. Newman: Safe D
Wiezer v. Plummer: Tossup
Callis v. Bost: Safe D
Callis v. Cook: Safe D
Callis v. Kormos: Safe D
Callis v. Newman: Safe D
Callis v. Plummer: Lean D
Harriman v. Bost: Safe D
Harriman v. Cook: Likely D
Harriman v. Kormos: Safe D
Harriman v. Newman: Safe D
Harriman v. Plummer: Lean D
Chances of winning the Primaries:
Dems:
Callis 84%
Harriman: 14%
Wiezer: 2%
GOP:
Plummer: 59%
Cook: 21%
Newman: 15%
Kormos: 2.6%
Bost: 2.4%
Odds of keeping IL-12 Democratic? 75%