How do I start this...
For years here and at other sites there has been much speculation over a possible attack on Iran by either Israel or by the U.S. and it's allies. Much of this speculation has relied on fantastic theories and general nonsense. However, there are real issues here and it seems that they are being exploited by various parties for political gain in a game of Brinksmanship on both sides.
Will there be an actual attack on Iran? I don't know - I used to be 100% sure that there would not be. Now.. I am less than sure about that, but I do believe I would still bet against it. Still there are some developments that give me cause to reasses my thoughts.
First off, there is this story coming from Haaretz:
Report: U.K. preparing for military strike on Iran nuclear facilities
The U.K. is stepping up its preparations for a military strike on Iran, the Guardian newspaper reported on Wednesday. According to the report, the U.K. is increasingly concerned over Tehran's nuclear program, and is preparing to deploy Royal Navy ships in the coming months to assist a possible U.S. attack on key facilities in Iran.
The paper cited senior officials who said they believed Iran had regained its technological capabilities which were severely damaged in a cyber-attack last year. Iran said the Stuxnet worm infected personal computers of employees at the Bushehr plant, but not the plant's main systems. The New York Times reported last January that the worm was a joint Israeli-U.S. effort to undermine Iran's nuclear ambitions....
......Responding to reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been trying to gain a majority in the cabinet for an attack on Iran, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff of Iran's armed forces, Hassan Firouzabadi, warned both Israel and the U.S. against such a move.
Meanwhile, the Israel Air Force continues conducting comprehensive drills on long-range attacks.
and according to Ynet:
Israeli state officials told Britian's Sky News network that Barak and Foreign Minister Lieberman support a preemptive strike but that the majority of ministers oppose military action fearing a regional flare-up.
Also according to Ynet:
The IAEA is slated to issue a report about Iran's nuclear program next week. Atom expert Dr. Ephraim Asculai told Ynet that the report may provide proof that Tehran is not only manufacturing enriched uranium but also experimenting on warheads and other nuclear components.
He noted that the significance of the report lies in its very publication in light of Russian and Chinese opposition. This may bolster western nations who seek tougher sanctions on Iran.
This comes in the face of news following a complete breakdown of any sembalance of a peace process. In Jerusalem, Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated his points on Jerusalem by saying: It is Israel's right and obligation to build in Jerusalem
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday that construction in Jerusalem is Israel's right and obligation, referring to his recent decision to accelerate settlement building in response to the Palestinians' newly granted UNESCO membership.
"We will continue developing Jerusalem, its neighborhoods, and people," Netanyahu said during a special Knesset session. "This is our right and obligation - not as punishment to the Palestinians but as our basic right."
On Tuesday, Netanyahu and his forum of eight senior ministers decided to initiate a new wave of settlement construction in the West Bank, as part of a wider set of sanctions Israel decided to impose on the Palestinian Authority after it was accepted to UNESCO as a member on Monday.
Netanyahu's office said Tuesday that the construction of 2,000 housing units planned in East Jerusalem, Gush Etzion, and Ma'aleh Adumim should be expedited.
With these increases in building the Prime Ministers office is helping foster an atmosphere where Peace Negotiations are impossible. The Palestinians are not going to negotiate for a State where Jerusalem as the capitol is not an option. They simply won't. They can't. The Palestinian polity will simply not stand for it.
At the same time, the Palestinians too, have taken unilateral steps seeing no hope in negotiations. According to Maan News: PLO to pursue statehood despite Israeli measures
RAMALLAH (Reuters) -- Israel's tough responses to a successful Palestinian bid to join UNESCO -- financial sanctions and a faster settlement drive in the occupied West Bank -- are unlikely to halt a quest for recognition as a state at the United Nations.
A senior Palestinian official said Wednesday that Israel was trying to undermine the Palestinian Authority through a decision on Tuesday to freeze temporarily transfers of PA funds after it won membership of the UN cultural agency.
and fresh off what they perceive was the success of the Shalit deal, Hamas is urging the Palestinian Authority to "give up on talks with Israel" and to that end Islamic Jihad is claiming to be in line with all factions and that it supports pursuing the "struggle" until Palestine is "liberated from the sea to the river".(paraphrased)
Noting that the US opposed Palestinian UN membership and sought a return to negotiations, al-Batsh said Washington was siding with Israel and ignoring Palestinian rights.
"If the Palestinians resume negotiations, that means yielding to the preconditions of the stronger."
He said the two-state solution only served Israel's interests, and that Islamic Jihad would continue to resist until the whole of Palestine was returned to Palestinians.
"The Islamic Jihad believes that if a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders is agreed on, we should go ahead with resistance until all the Palestinian soil is restored."
Now, Hamas and some of the factions in Gaza are closely tied to Iran so any attack on Israel would immediately ignite a regional conflict which would involve Hizbollah and Syria (also close allies of Iran). The potential problems and implications of possible war are staggering.
HOWEVER...
YNET reports that this could just be brinksmanship engineered by the Defense Minister and his friends to shift discussion away from Palestinian Statehood AND to keep D.M. Barak relevant.
The top official suggested that Barak might not be interested in military action against Iran, "but is playing this card in order to manipulate the prime minister and his advisors, thus justifying his role in the government.
"Without the Iranian issue, he has no right to exist in the government," the official claimed.
If Barak was sincere in his support of the attack, the official asserted, he wouldn't be briefing reporters or "generating spin" over the sensitive subject.
"Such issues are considered a top secret that few are privy to," the official explained. "This why it isn't logical and isn't' responsible for an Israeli defense minister to involve reporters or other people in the issue, while also supporting military action."
Additionally, Anshel Pfeiffer writing in Haaretz does mention that the Ballistic missle test recently carried out by Israel and the Long Range Air mission were things that have been planned for:
It is important to note that the drills and tests of recent days, and those expected to take place in the coming days, were all planned months ago.
The test-firing of a ballistic missile on Wednesday at the Palmahim Israel Defense Forces base in central Israel would not have been possible without a long and complex process of serious planning and rigorous safety standards; The joint drill with the Italian Air Force last week over Sardinia could not have occurred without extensive pre-planning with the Italians. The drill planned for Thursday in Holon, simulating a rocket attack on Gush Dan, was scheduled a long time ago by the Home Front Command...
...The speed in which events are unfolding, and the advancement of the IDF and military industries' development and training programs, often result in such a combination – drills simulating long-range attacks and drills simulating missile attacks on population centers. Such coincidences have occurred quite often in the past, and they will happen again in the future.
Yet when such a coincidence occurs alongside a whirlwind of news and an unprecedented public discussion concerning the decision-making process at the top echelon of Israel's political-military pyramid, it is hard to ignore the feeling that there are some elements who are trying these days to highlight every drill and maximize their gains.
So really, is this a step towards war or is this a game of brinksmanship. Currently, I beleive that it is brinksmanship and sabre rattling for other political means. However, things do have a way of spiraling out of control.
Please discuss.....