This is the conclusion to my two-part effort to create Congressional maps for the state of Minnesota. Here's a link to Proposal One, which creates four districts that lean towards each party. See the previous entry for a deeper explanation of Partisan Lean and why my maps are based upon this concept.
A legitimately-fair nonpartisan map aims to allocate districts so an equal number possess a lean towards each party (so in a dead-even race, each side should win a similar number of districts). If we seek to avoid cracking county boundaries in excess of the current map, this cannot be done in Minnesota without splitting of the most-populous municipality (Minneapolis). However, it is possible to craft a map that reduces the Republican leans in the 2nd and 3rd, resulting in a more competitive and fair electoral landscape.
The first table displays the results and partisan lean for the eight major statewide races this decade. Each CD's number is placed along the left-right continuum, indicating it's lean compared to the statewide result. The purple X indicates the actual victor and margin. Notice that each district's lean was not significantly affected by which side won and the margin of victory, as it is essentially baked into the district's design.
The second table offers a scoreboard of partisan lean for these statewide elections. While the President won Minnesota by 10.2 percentage points, in only two districts did his margin exceed that total; whereas for Senator John McCain, his share of the two-party vote exceeded his statewide percentage in six of the eight districts.
This same phenomenon exists with seats in the State House of Representatives, and reveals just how Minnesota's district landscape offers the GOP a sizable edge.
I seek to illuminate how Minnesota's nonpartisan mapmaking process, in order to create a legitimately fair map that does not provide a built-in advantage for one party over the other, should be aware of the partisan realities of their districts, rather than ignore them. When they are "ignored", significant structural advantages are provided to the GOP.
Proposal Two:
An improvement, but still containing a 5-3 GOP lean
As with Proposal One, the population deviations between districts remain under 1,000 (<0.16%). The new ward/precinct boundaries can smooth out the differences.
Full State (larger maps of districts available upon request)
Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area
District 1: southern Minnesota
Current Rep: Tim Walz (D-Mankato)
2010 Results: Dayton 39.9%, Emmer 45.5%.
2008 Results: Obama 51.0%, McCain 46.6%.
Current Ethnicity: 89.0% white (91.4% VAP), 5.2% Hispanic (3.9% VAP)
Current Partisan Lean (based on the eight major races): R+5.3%
Proposed 2010 Results: Dayton 39.7%, Emmer 45.7%.
Proposed 2008 Results: Obama 50.7%, McCain 46.8%.
Proposed Ethnicity: 89.0% white (91.4% VAP), 5.1% Hispanic (3.9% VAP)
Proposed Partisan Lean (based on the eight major races): MN R+6.1%
The 1st maintains most of its current layout, adding Redwood County to its present setup of the Winona-Worthington I-90 Corridor, the Mankato-St Peter-New Ulm "micropolitan" area, and the city of Owatonna. Two municipalities - Lake City and Pine Island – cross county lines, yet remain wholly within the 1st district (for population purposes). Rep. Walz survived the Republican Torcano of 2010, and should be able to hold this seat despite a slight GOP boost in this new map. However, if it opens, the GOP will have the edge.
District 2: St Paul's southern and southeastern suburbs, south-central towns and cities
Current Rep: John Kline (R-Lakeville)
2010 Results: Dayton 35.8%, Emmer 50.3%.
2008 Results: Obama 48.3%, McCain 49.8%.
Current Ethnicity: 85.5% white (88.1% VAP), 3.2% Black/African American (2.8% VAP), 4.8% Hispanic (3.8% VAP), 4.1% Asian American (3.9% VAP)
Current Partisan Lean: MN R+12.7%
Proposed 2010 Results: Dayton 39.5%, Emmer 46.4%.
Proposed 2008 Results: Obama 51.4%, McCain 46.6%.
Proposed Ethnicity: 83.9% white (86.9% VAP), 3.9% Black/African American (3.4% VAP), 5.5% Hispanic (4.4% VAP), 4.2% Asian American (3.9% VAP)
Proposed Partisan Lean: MN R+6.9%
The 2nd also closely resembles the current incarnation. The most notable adjustment: Dakota County would remain whole within the new district, contrasting with the two-way split of the current map, and most Scott County segments are ceded to the 6th District. Outside of that, the new 2nd echoes the current map, connecting towns in Washington County that fall south of I-94 with their Dakota County brethren, yet avoiding the municipality splits of the current seat.
This district aims to keep St Paul's southern and southeastern suburbs together, Maplewood excepted (as it would require another county split).
The other major county split keeps New Prague, Montgomery and Lonsdale (three towns with a large Czech ancestry and a shared school district) within the 2nd.
Rep. Kline would likely hang on here, but the safe Republican pastures a few miles west might be too great a lure to remain in a newly-moderate seat.
District 3: Northern and northwestern suburbs of Minneapolis.
Current Rep: Erik Paulsen (R-Eden Prairie)
Rep in new map: open
MN-3 current statistics:
2010 Results: Dayton 38.6%, Emmer 47.4%.
2008 Results: Obama 52.2%, McCain 46.2%.
Current Ethnicity: 79.0% white (82.7% VAP), 7.6% Black/African American (6.4% VAP), 3.9% Hispanic (3.1% VAP), 6.7% Asian American (6.2% VAP)
Current Partisan Lean: R+7.7%
Proposed 2010 Results: Dayton 42.0%, Emmer 44.9%
Proposed 2008 Results: Obama 54.0%, McCain 44.2%.
Proposed Ethnicity: 77.1% white (81.4% VAP), 8.9% Black/African American (7.4% VAP), 4.5% Hispanic (3.5% VAP), 6.4% Asian American (5.8% VAP)
Proposed Partisan Lean: MN R+3.3%
Differing from Proposal One, the new 3rd cracks no municipalities and captures all of the first-ring suburbs that fall north of I-394, and all second and third-ring 'burbs north of Eden Prairie (for population reasons, this had to go into the new 5th). For a more in-depth discussion in why specific northern suburbs are grouped with the 3rd rather than the 4th, see this district's entry within Proposal One.
I aimed to create a suburban-Minneapolis based seat that reflected the exact partisan lean of the state. However, this is not possible without either cracking the city proper or Ramsey County, or forcing the new 5th to grab more outer-ring territory. Hence, a seat with a less pronounced, yet still present, Republican lean.
District 4: St. Paul, northern and northeastern suburbs.
Current Reps: Betty McCollum (D-St. Paul)
Rep in new map: McCollum (D-St. Paul), Michele Bachmann (R-Stillwater)
MN-4 Current statistics:
2010 Results: Dayton 53.4%, Emmer 33.6%.
2008 Results: Obama 64.4%, McCain 33.6%.
Current Ethnicity: 69.1% white (75.1% VAP), 9.7% Black/African American (8.2% VAP), 7.6% Hispanic (6.0% VAP), 10.3% Asian American (8.4% VAP)
Current Partisan Lean: MN D+20.6%
Proposed 2010 Results: Dayton 50.1%, Emmer 36.7%
Proposed 2008 Results: Obama 61.7%, McCain 36.4%.
Proposed Ethnicity: 72.2% white (77.4% VAP), 8.8% Black/African American (7.6% VAP), 6.1% Hispanic (4.9% VAP), 9.7% Asian American (8.0% VAP)
Proposed Partisan Lean: D+12.9%
This largely mirrors Proposal One, save for the shedding of the lone precinct of St. Anthony to the new 3rd in exchange for two towns in north-west Anoka County. In order to avoid the "arm" of Columbus and Linwood, I would need to crack Chisago. However, if that occurred, the partisan balance of the district would not change.
District 5: Minneapolis; southern and southwestern suburbs
Current Reps: Keith Ellison (D-Minneapolis)
Rep in new map: Keith Ellison (D-Minneapolis), Erik Paulsen (R-Eden Prairie)
MN-5 Current statistics:
2010 Results: Dayton 64.6%, Emmer 23.3%.
2008 Results: Obama 74.1%, McCain 23.8%.
Current Ethnicity: 65.4% white (71.3% VAP), 15.1% Black/African American (12.7% VAP), 9.5% Hispanic (7.6% VAP), 5.3% Asian American (5.1% VAP)
Current Partisan Lean: MN D+37.2%
Proposed 2010 Results: Dayton 58.9%, Emmer 28.1%
Proposed 2008 Results: Obama 70.7%, McCain 27.5%.
Proposed Ethnicity: 68.0% white (73.2% VAP), 13.2% Black/African American (11.2% VAP), 8.6% Hispanic (6.9% VAP), 5.9% Asian American (5.7% VAP)
Proposed Partisan Lean: D+29.6%
See District 3 for map
Continuing the pattern of crafting districts that group towns within similar regions, the new 5th connects Minneapolis with its southern and southwestern suburbs. St Louis Park, Edina, and Richfield ring the southern half of Minneapolis, with Eden Prairie and Bloomington rounding out the district. St Anthony, which crosses into Ramsey County, is kept whole within the new 5th. Ellison would easily prevail in this incumbent-vs-incumbent battle, as the new 5th would remain one of the five most Democratic districts in the upper Midwest.
District 6: Twin Cities exurbs; east-central towns and cities
Current Rep: Michele Bachmann (R-Stillwater)
Rep in new map: Chip Cravaack (R-Lindstrom)
Current MN-6 statistics:
2010 Results: Dayton 34.6%, Emmer 52.8%.
2008 Results: Obama 44.7%, McCain 53.2%.
Current Ethnicity: 90.3% white (92.0 VAP)
Current Partisan Lean: R+17.2%
Proposed 2010 Results: Dayton 30.7%, Emmer 56.8%
Proposed 2008 Results: Obama 41.2%, McCain 56.7%.
Proposed Ethnicity: 91.7% white (93.3% VAP)
Proposed Partisan Lean: MN R+25.7%
District 6 prioritizes COI, gathering most exurbs of Minneapolis and St Paul that fall outside of Dakota County.
Outside of Carver, the western part of the 6th grabs Hennepin's far-west exurbs and all of Wright County. The northern half includes all of Chisago and Isanti Counties, the remainder of Anoka, the southern half of Mille Lacs County and the entirety of Sherburne and Benton Counties that do not contain the city and suburbs of St Cloud. I want to keep the St Cloud area, which occupies three counties, as intact as possible (see District 7).
District 6 illustrates the point about partisan realities referenced within the previous district. While McCain's 15-point edge makes this the most Republican seat in the state, if not the most GOP-leaning seat possible without invoking the spirit of California ubermapper Phillip Burton, it still falls 8 points short of serving as a counterweight to the 5th District. Even the clustering of similarly-conservative yet geographically-flung exurban precincts into a shared district cannot match the partisan intensity of merely keeping a major city intact. Absent a primary challenge, either from a current GOP incumbent or former gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer, Cravaack would have little trouble holding this seat.
District 7: western and northwestern Minnesota
Current Rep: Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes)
MN-7 current statistics:
2010 Results: Dayton 39.3%, Emmer 47.1%.
2008 Results: Obama 47.4%, McCain 50.1%.
Current Ethnicity: 90.5% white (92.7% VAP), 3.8% Hispanic (2.8% VAP)
Current Partisan Lean: R+9.6%
Proposed 2010 Results: Dayton 38.4%, Emmer 47.7%.
Proposed 2008 Results: Obama 47.0%, McCain 50.5%.
Proposed Ethnicity: 91.7% white (93.6% VAP), 3.7% Hispanic (2.7% VAP).
Proposed Partisan Lean: MN R+11.6%
Consisting largely of intact counties along the western half of the state from Sibley & Renville through the Canadian border, the 7th changes very little, outside of shedding some northern territory in exchange for St Cloud.
In order to meet population requirements, the 7th cedes precincts from southeastern Polk County to the 8th District, and all territory containing and bordering Band of Ojibwe reservations (White Earth and Leech Lake Bands). Due to the length of this district's eastern border, multiple modifications can be made, all without affecting the lean. Peterson, a survivor of the aforementioned 2010 Torcano, is basically safe. The DFL will have difficulty holding this seat when he retires, however.
District 8: Duluth/Iron Range, north-central and northeastern Minnesota
Current Rep: Chip Cravaack (R-Lindstrom)
Rep in new map: Open
2010 Results: Dayton 48.2%, Emmer 40.5%.
2008 Results: Obama 53.1%, McCain 44.5%.
Current Ethnicity: 92.9% white (94.3% VAP)
Current Partisan Lean: D+5.6%
Proposed 2010 Results: Dayton 49.6%, Emmer 39.2%.
Proposed 2008 Results: Obama 54.3%, McCain 43.3%.
Proposed Ethnicity: 90.8% white (92.7% VAP), 4.5% American Indian (3.7% VAP)
Current Partisan Lean: MN D+5.0%
Like the 1st District, this mirrors the map created within the We Draw the Lines campaign. The new 8th sheds St. Paul exurbs like Chisago County (home of Rep. Cravaack), aiming to maintain its current status as the Duluth – Iron Range seat. In addition, the annexation of precincts in the east-central part of the state collects all seven Bands of Ojibwe into a shared seat, permitting collective political involvement in (all likelihood) a caucus for a Congressional race (the geographic divide between the four Sioux tribes do not permit a similar district).
Summary
Proposal Two was designed to meet the fairness definition from above without splitting Minneapolis or adding more county splits than the current map. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to draw a map that places four districts on the Democratic side of the state's partisan lean while maintaining a non-split Minneapolis. If the boundaries aim to keep counties and cities intact, the resulting map will have only three seats leaning towards the DFL, and 5 that lean towards the GOP (see Emmer's numbers for details). Two of the Republican-leaning seats (MN-2 and MN-3) are closer to the state's partisan composition, however – a strong improvement over the current map.