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I gave each party one safe seat. All the others I tried to make as swingy as possible. I did not use the VRA.

The state-

Jackson county-

St.Louis county-

1-OB-48 MC-49, tan, St.Joseph and north part of Kansas city

2-OB-49 MC-48, black, South part of Kansas city down to Christian county

3-OB-47 MC-51, purple, Independence and Columbia

4-OB-36 MC-61, red, Springfield and Joplin

5-OB-49 MC-49, yellow, Rolla and Florissant

6-OB-53 MC-45, blue, Hannibal and parts of St.Louis county

7-OB-49 MC-48, cyan, Poplar bluff and parts of St.Louis county

8-OB-60 MC-38,light purple, St.Louis and Washington county

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Comment Preferences

  •  This looks like a great GOP map (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca

    At 53% Obama (D+0), MO-6 is the swing seat here, while the supposed swing seats are R+2 to R+4. Many people on this site seem to think that any Obama district is a tossup, but that's simply not true in many parts of the country (especially the Upper Midwest, where 55% is really the break-even point).

    Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02

    by fearlessfred14 on Thu Nov 03, 2011 at 06:50:19 AM PDT

    •  Depends on the state (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Marcus Graly

      It's above 55% here in Illinois, because of Obama's home state boost. I'd say 57 or 58% is the tipping point. Just look at Il-10 and IL-06. Congressman Roskam has been very comfortable in his EVEN PVI seat at 56% Obama.

      17. R. Il-10. Proud member of RRH (but no RedState for me)...

      by IllinoyedR on Thu Nov 03, 2011 at 08:08:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Illinois is probably the highest baseline (0+ / 0-)

        though it's partly because the Illinois GOP still hasn't killed its moderate wing. I'd call it at around 57%, at least in northern IL. Wisconsin's close, probably about 55%, and I'd expect IN, MI, MN, and IA to be similar. On the other hand, TN-05 in its current form (I know about RRH's plan for it) is about 55% Obama and generally considered Safe D.

        Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02

        by fearlessfred14 on Thu Nov 03, 2011 at 07:58:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  In MO (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Marcus Graly

      which is much more negative towards Obama than other Dems, 8 is SD, 6 is LiD, 1, 2,5, 7 are LeD, 3 is T and 4 is SR. At least for a few cycles.

      -8.88, -4.21 Why does the most beautiful place in the world (Idaho Panhandle) have to get dumped with thousands of Cali GOP doofuses?

      by Whitty on Thu Nov 03, 2011 at 08:14:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's disregarding incumbents (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        Though Akin is out and Hartzler and Long aren't well known, but Graves, Emerson and Leutkemeyer would be too strong.  On the other hand, at least Long and possibly Leutkemeyer would run in the 4th, and Emerson's retirement won't be too long in coming.

        -8.88, -4.21 Why does the most beautiful place in the world (Idaho Panhandle) have to get dumped with thousands of Cali GOP doofuses?

        by Whitty on Thu Nov 03, 2011 at 08:30:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Missouri as a whole is 49% Obama and R+3 (0+ / 0-)

        so I'd call those even Obama seats LeR or T at best, not LeD. They'd be uphill climbs. And I could think it might be different in northern MO than southern MO.

        Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02

        by fearlessfred14 on Thu Nov 03, 2011 at 08:03:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  But that simply doesn't make sense. (0+ / 0-)

          Obama really didn't do that well in MO, considering the Democratic wave. Jay Nixon, MO's Democratic governor, won with 58% of the vote on the same day. Clinton won MO twice. The Obama numbers are certainly underwhelming for a Democrat in Missouri. So Missouri Democrats are likely to do better than Obama. Which means that a 47% Obama district could be winnable for Democrats while a district Obama actually won is definitely leaning towards us.

  •  VRA or no (0+ / 0-)

    this map would get struck down. Slicing and dicing the black community of STL apart is a clear violation of equal protection.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Thu Nov 03, 2011 at 09:13:00 AM PDT

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