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Leading Off:

Election Day: Junkies rejoice! It's election day! Click the link for our handy pocket guide to the key races taking place today. Also, be sure to join us Tuesday evening for complete liveblog coverage of all the major contests. And if there's an election in your area today, remember to vote!

Senate:

AZ-Sen: While the world waits on former Surgeon General Richard Carmona to conclude his Hamlet act, ex-state party chair Don Bivens has been busy racking up endorsements from all sorts of players as he seeks the Democratic nomination for Senate. The latest comes from ex-Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who herself is running for office in the 1st Congressional District (which she represented for a single term until losing last November). Ex-Rep. Harry Mitchell and Jim Pederson, another former party chair, have also gotten on board.

CA-Sen, CA-22: This sure is unexpected—and odd. Republican Rep. Devin Nunes has been on the attack against Dem Sen. Dianne Feinstein lately, even going so far as to run television ads in his district calling her out by name on a series environmental issues… and now he's refusing to rule out a run against her next year. Nunes is very conservative, though, so he'd be giving up his House career for an extremely longshot run. That makes me skeptical that this represents anything other than a bid to raise his profile. In fact, if you watch the spot he's airing, you'll see that it looks geared to get people to sign up for some kind of spam list, so perhaps this whole exercise is just an expensive form of list-building.

NV-Sen: Clinton Alert! (Been a while since we had one of those.) The Big Dog will be the featured guest at a January fundraiser in Las Vegas for Rep. Shelley Berkley, who is running against GOP Sen. Dean Heller.

NY-Sen: It's the New York Post's Fred Dicker, so the usual does of sodium chloride applies, but they're saying that 2010 GOP comptroller candidate Harry Wilson might make a go of it against Dem Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand next year. Wilson lost his race in 2010 to incumbent Tom DiNapoli by about four points, but if he couldn't beat a largely unknown Democrat with such a strong Republican tailwind, I have no idea how he'd hope to do better against a fundraising juggernaut like Gillibrand with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket.

OH-Sen: At long, long, long, LONG last, Republican Treasurer Josh Mandel released his personal financial disclosure statement, a form all candidates for House and Senate are required to file when running for office. Mandel's report was due back in May, and he's been hammered mercilessly (and rightly) for refusing to comply with the law until now. Of course, he put out his disclosure late on a Friday evening, right before a major election in Ohio, and only made it available to the press. Anyhow, as the Ohio Daily Blog smirks, the report shows that Mandel is rich (perhaps worth as much as $7 million)—big deal. That was already well-known, given that his wife hails from a family of uber-wealthy developers. The real point is that Mandel thumbed his nose at mandatory campaign finance regulations for almost half a year, which says a lot about his respect for the rule of law.

TX-Sen: I'd completely forgotten that Elizabeth Ames Jones was running for the GOP Senate nomination… and now she's not. Like several others before her, Jones (currently chair of the state's Railroad Commission) has decided to drop down to a more manageable race, in this case state Senate.

Gubernatorial:

MO-Gov: Plastics magnate Dave Spence is now saying that he might seek the GOP gubernatorial nomination regardless of what Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder does. When his name first surfaced last month, Spence initially said he'd defer to Kinder, whom he called a "friend." Now he sounds like he's getting antsy, and also adds that he's "willing to self-fund part of" his campaign.

MS-Gov: PPP polled the Mississippi governor's race over the weekend, as well as the state's notorious "personhood" amendment, on the ballot as Initiative 26. As expected, the former looks like a Republican blowout, but the latter is a tossup. Click the link for the full numbers at Daily Kos Elections.

House:

CA-44: According to Morning Score, Democrat Janice Hahn will pick up the endorsement of the local chapter of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers.

MI-05: A huge get for former Genesee County Treasurer Dan Kildee, looking to replace his uncle Dale Kildee in the House: The United Auto Workers just gave him their endorsement. This district may have more UAW members than any other in the nation (or if not, it's close to Sandy Levin's), so this should secure Kildee's position as front-runner in the Democratic primary.

Relatedly, former Dem Rep. Jim Barcia firmed up his timetable last week, saying that he'd decide whether to make the contest later this month. Barcia served in the House in the 1990s, amassing a conservative voting record, but was a redistricting victim in 2002. He returned to the state legislature (where he'd spent his pre-Congressional career, dating back to 1977) in 2003, but was term-limited out of the Senate earlier this year. Barcia's only 59, though, and his name emerged as a possible contender almost as soon as the elder Kildee said he'd retire.

Other Races:

AZ Recall: Joshua Spivak has another comprehensive analysis of Tuesday's other big recall election (Michigan's being the first), the battle to oust Arizona Republican state Senate President Russell Pearce. (Plus it features a great Simpsons reference.) Joshua also has a detailed roundup of all the other recall elections taking place around the country today, from the Jasper (TX) city council to the Ellicot (CO) school board. While it's difficult to isolate historical trends, it's pretty amazing to see how popular recalls seem to be these days.

Erie Co., NY Exec: It's way down in the weeds, but it's one of the biggest local races taking place today. Voters in Erie County, New York (home of Buffalo and almost a million citizens) will elect a new county executive. Republican Chris Collins, who currently holds the post and first won election in 2007 in a landslide, is facing a very stiff challenge from Erie County Comptroller Mark Poloncarz, a Democrat. A new Siena poll shows the race tied at 48 apiece, while a poll in early October by the Buffalo News and Channel 2 had Collins up just 49-46. Democrats have been putting their backs into this fight, with Sen. Chuck Schumer and Gov. Andrew Cuomo making recent appearances on behalf of Poloncarz, while Collins's campaign is deploying classic loser-speak: "The only poll that counts is the one taken on Election Day." (Yes, that's an actual quote.) This should be one of the most interesting under-the-radar races on Tuesday.

IA-St. Sen.: PPP also tested Iowa's crucial 18th state Senate district special election, which takes place on Tuesday. Democrat Liz Mathis leads Republican Cindy Golding by a 52-46, in a race which will determine control of the chamber. Some thoughts from Tom Jensen:

The numbers suggest that Mathis is just a stronger candidate than Golding. Voters in the district are split right down the middle, 44/44, on whether they'd rather Democrats or Republicans had control of the State Senate. But Mathis is outrunning those numbers when it comes to how people are planning to vote on Tuesday. The big key for her is that she's taking 16% of the GOP vote from Golding, while losing only 9% of the Democratic vote. That helps her make up for a 50-45 deficit with independents.

This election has been framed to some extent as a battle over gay marriage, but our poll suggests voters aren't seeing it that way. They're planning to vote for Mathis even as 46% of them say gay marriage should be illegal, compared to just 42% who think it should be legal. Although voters in the district may oppose gay marriage, only 11% say that issue is the most important factor guiding their vote compared to 86% who say it's something else. It's also worth noting that 66% of voters do support either gay marriage or civil unions with only 30% opposed to all legal recognition for same sex couples.

If this election's not hinging on gay marriage, then what is making the difference here? Voters may be sending a message to Governor Terry Branstad. His approval rating in the district is only 39% with 42% disapproving of him. This special election is seen in some quarters as the product of a power grab by Branstad and if Mathis wins it could be indicative of an electorate that doesn't want to enhance his power.

One other interesting thing to note here is that Barack Obama's approval rating in the district is only 37% with 51% of voters disapproving of him, despite the fact that he won the district by a wide margin in 2008. On the one hand that obviously shows how far the President's popularity has fallen over the last three years. On the other hand it shows that Democrats can still win even in territory where Obama's numbers are bad enough to suggest he might be a problem for down ballot Dems.

NY-St. Sen.: Kenneth Lovett at the New York Daily News is reporting that Republicans have entered into a non-aggression pact with four Democratic state senators who created their own "independent" caucus earlier this year. This quartet has pledged not to support current Democratic leadership if Dems nominally win back the chamber in 2012, which Republicans currently control by a 32-30 margin. In return, the GOP allegedly won't support challenges to this rogue gang. (A Republican spokesman refused to confirm or deny the deal, so you know what that means.) Therefore, Democrats either need to win an extremely unlikely six seats next year to render the "independent Democrats" irrelevant, or they need to put someone forth as party leader who would be acceptable to them (if such a person even exists). Or just bribe the so-called IDC into falling in line.

OH SB5: The elves at Public Policy Polling were very busy this weekend, seeing as they produced a third poll, this one of Ohio. Some good news: Voters still oppose Issue 2 by a wide margin, 59-36, making it look like GOP Gov. John Kasich's signature piece of union-busting legislation is headed for a stark defeat. (Kasich, by the way, is at a 33-57 approval rating, almost the exact inverse of where Issue 2 is polling.) Incidentally, this time, PPP used both the exact wording of the ballot measure and the synopsis they'd previously used during the course of the year, in response to criticism that only asking the latter was yielding misleading numbers. But the results were almost identical, with respondents opposing the summary version 59-33.

Ohio has two other ballot measures up on Tuesday: Issue 3, a constitutional amendment which purports to bar implementation of the healthcare reform bill's insurance mandate in Ohio, is up 49-35. That's a tightening from 55-24 previously, though Tom Jensen thinks there is a good deal of voter confusion about this one. And Issue 1, which makes changes to the state's judiciary that are favored by Republicans, is down 48-27, though again, a lot of voters don't seem to understand it, and support or opposition doesn't break down along partisan lines.

SF Mayor: One interesting detail regarding Tuesday's mayoral race in San Francisco: The election will be decided by instant runoff voting, which has actually been in place since 2004. It's notable this year, though, because of the huge number of candidates on the ballot—16. Voters get to mark their top three choices.

Special Elections: Because of the huge number of state legislative special elections this week, Johnny Longtorso has rounded them all up in his own post. Click through for all the goodness.

Redistricting Roundup:

AZ Redistricting: Arizona's Supreme Court has expedited redistricting commissioner Colleen Mathis's challenge to her ouster at the hands of the state Senate and GOP Gov. Jan Brewer last week, with a hearing scheduled for Nov. 17. The AP also reports that the court is likely to rule on Tuesday whether Mathis's removal should be stayed while her case is pending. I think the fact that her suit wasn't immediately dismissed as a political question unsuitable for judicial involvement is a positive sign, though of course the court could still rule that way later.

MA redistricting: The Congressional maps in Massachusetts came out yesterday. There's less drama associated with this than there would have been a few weeks ago, what with Rep. John Olver recently deciding to retire and making it easy for the legislature to cut the delegation down to 9 Dems instead of 10. You can find detailed versions of the maps here.

Maybe the most interesting change is Barney Frank's 4th district, which may now be the state's least-blue (relatively speaking, of course) district, thanks to losing blue-collar New Bedford and most of Fall River, picking up I-495 suburbs instead. Mike Capuano's 7th (formerly the 8th) has also undergone some striking changes, apparently losing much of Cambridge; it looks like the goal was to turn it into a 50%+ minority-majority district (though no one minority in particular), reaching north to get majority-Hispanic towns like Chelsea as well as Randolph to Boston's south (which has a large African-American population). Frosh Bill Keating is technically drawn into Stephen Lynch's district (now the 8th), but assumedly will continue to run in the Cape Cod/South Shore district (now the 9th), which is made much safer by gaining New Bedford.

The old 1st, as expected, is the district that basically got vaporized; the Berkshires part of it ends up in Richard Neal's new 1st (old 2nd), while the whole Pioneer Valley is now the western anchor of Jim McGovern's new 2nd (old 3rd). (And the strange split of Northampton from Amherst is no longer... they're both in the 2nd now.) Niki Tsongas's 3rd (now the 5th) and John Tierney's 6th retained their basic outlines.

NC Redistricting: A second lawsuit has been filed against North Carolina's new redistricting maps, this time by the NAACP and other civil rights groups. Like the case launched last week by Democratic elected officials, the plaintiffs here are alleging the new plans abrogate minority voting rights, which makes me think these two suits are ripe for consolidation.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Rank to days races by importance to you (7+ / 0-)

    list as many as you feel like. For me, it's probably:
    1. Maine Question 1: Voting rights is a huge part of why I'm a democrat, so this race is pretty darn important to me. We really should have same-day registration nation wide.
    2. Virginia State Senate: Besides determine whether McDonnell is given licensee to go the full Walker on Virginia, this race is probably worth a seat or two in congress because of redistricting. Oh, and I really want to see Dick Black, the asshole who thinks spousal rape isn't rape get kicked to the curb.
    3. Arizona Recall: It's Russell Pearce. What more needs to be said?
    4. Ohio Issue 2: Seeing a jerk like Kasich getting his signature policy initiative defeated at the ballot box by a massive margin should be therapeutic.
    5. Eire County Exec: not sure why, but this has become a bit of a pet race for me.

    There's no particular order after that.

    •  OR-01 just cause I live there. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, Odysseus, bythesea

      Voted 2 weeks ago.

      Ohio ballot measure

      KY statewides

      Maine ballot measure

      Mississippi ballot measure

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 05:23:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  1. Initiative 26 (Mississippi Person Amendment) (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus

      Because believe it or not women have rights.

      2. Maine Question 1

      Voting rights. Do I have to say more?

      3. Mississippi Initiative 27

      Would require Government Issued Photo ID to vote, God I hope it fails.

      4. Virginia State Senate

      Keeping this would be huge, it's the difference between Republican rule and safety. I worry about our odds though.

      5. Mississippi State House

      Similarly to Virginia, the house is our last defense.

      6. Iowa St Senate

      Difference between Democrats and Republicans having control, what else needs to be said?

      7. Ohio Issue 2

      I can't wait to see that smug asshole Kaisch's bill get smote.

      8. OR-01

      Go Brad!

      Yami Yugi: Wait a minute! Did you just summon a bunch of monsters in one turn? Seto Kaiba: Yeah. So? Yami: That's against the rules, isn't it? Kaiba: Screw the rules, I have money! — Episode 1, Yu-Gi-Oh! The Abridged Series

      by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 06:21:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ohio Issues 1, 2 and 3 (0+ / 0-)

      I would like to see all three Republican power grabs go down.

      Also the Mississippi Personhood Amendment — although I have mixed feelings here. If it goes down in Mississippi, it's pretty much dead everywhere. However, I think these amendments would be a powerful motivator to get young people to the polls next November who might otherwise be unenthused. The rabid anti-choice righties will show up anyway.

      Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

      by anastasia p on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 10:49:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  mine (0+ / 0-)

      1) Virginia State Senate: Could net us up to two US House seats if we can throw redistricting to the courts

      2) Iowa State Senate: Democratic control > power sharing

      3) Ohio Issue 2: I don't much care about the result, policywise, but Kasich is such in ass that I want his stuff to lose by as big a margin as possible

      4) San Francisco Mayor: I hope someone besides Lee or Yee win, although that's unlikely as well

      5) OR-1 Primary: I'd like to see Brad Witt in Congress, although it's unlikely he wins.  Also, Oregon's my dad's home state, although he's from OR-5, not OR-1

      18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 11:31:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  oh, and my pet issue (0+ / 0-)

        the Newark (California, not New Jersey) Schools Bond measure that I helped campaign for on Saturday.

        It needs 55% and is supposed to be super close

        18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 11:40:33 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Heading out to the AFL-CIO office (12+ / 0-)

    ...in Columbus OH in about a half hour for GOTV.

    Issue 2, Kasich's union-busting bill, is slated to go down to defeat if opponents show up at the polls.

    Two sets of people canvassed my neighborhood yesterday urging a no vote. The momentum it seems has not let up.

    Whew. Kasich sure created a lot of work for people to repeal his bill which he barely muscled through the legislature. On the upside, he catalyzed an amazing resurgence of union solidarity.

    Should be fun at the Hyatt Regency tonight watching the returns come in.

  •  Not to preempt a forthcoming post, (5+ / 0-)

    but this week's national poll is out. Republicans have the first generic House ballot lead of the cycle on it.

    I suspect this one is an outlier, though: it shows an equal number of Democrats and Republicans as respondents. Of course, that could be real, but I'm doubtful.  

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 05:20:10 AM PST

  •  I think Gov. Kasich is going to be a bit (8+ / 0-)

    on the grumpy side by later this evening.  

    •  Doubt It. I Knew Him In His Rep Days, He's a (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Remediator, Setsuna Mudo, ArkDem14

      total royalist. He also knows that most of the substance of Issue 2 is supported by Ohioans per reporting I've heard so it'll almost all be back in law next year.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 05:34:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  If voters reject SB 5 by the percentages (7+ / 0-)

        hinted at by PPP, I think it reads as a stark rejection of Kasich's initiative.  He made this an issue.  I think he's going to lose big tonight.

      •  ????? (0+ / 0-)

        "Most of the substance of Issue 2 is supported by voters"? Where on earth did you hear that? When polls have broken it down by provisions, the ONLY thing they support is the provision setting levels of contributions into pension funds and health insurance. What those respondents don't know is this provision is b.s. because 90 percent of public workers already contribute at that level, and more, it's political showboating because a bill that actually HAD union input that would have set HIGHER contributions was swept off  the table in favor of the lesser contributions but silencing unions entirely.

        As for the likelihood it will be back next year, that's a big maybe. If SB 5 goes down by only a handful of points, perhaps. If it goes down by 10 points or more, I'd say this is really, really dubious. Legislators are up for election next year, whereas Kasich is not. Legislators will know people are angry and will do their best to do nothing next year – certainly not make people angrier when their next choice may be to sweep out the legislators.

        Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 10:34:29 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  At least Romney will be... (5+ / 0-)

      1000110001010111.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 07:13:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  AZ (4+ / 0-)

    Wenona Benally Baldenegro has the PDA backing in AZ 01.

    Today, the evil Russell Pearce, sponsor of SB1070, goes down (fingers crossed) in a recall in LD18.

    Remember, you can't have crazy without az.

    by Desert Rose on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 05:20:51 AM PST

  •  PPP CA. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sportsman885

    Why the crap does anyone want to see CA? There's nothing new going on there atm. The dems will win, and Obama will win. Why would people vote to poll CA over the other great states that are actually tossups.....

    20, Male. DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

    by aggou on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 05:24:10 AM PST

  •  Got 3 Robo Calls Yesterday and Sun for Yes on 2 in (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, bythesea

    Ohio, including legendary punk rocker Pat Boone, and a genuine preference poll survey call about it yesterday afternoon.

    I really have to wonder who's polling on an issue 12 hours before physical voting begins. Hopefully they were hired by unions for wargaming the effectiveness of the activism these past months. I can't imagine the results could possibly affect messaging and GOTV strageddies so late in the game.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 05:32:18 AM PST

  •  Randolph ma has really changed (0+ / 0-)

    I grew up there and graduated high school in 1972. We may have had 10 out of 500 graduates that were black. Back then the town was split 50/50 between the Irish and Jews. We had a few black families who were pretty upscale.  
    I read a while back that Randolph was one of the most evenly divided towns in the country with pretty even splits between white, Hispanic and blacks.
    I would expect ma will stay all democratic although it is not as liberal as people think, it just has always had a very weak republican party.

  •  I'm working on maps of Southern states (4+ / 0-)

    to maximize minority voting power.  Examples:

    Photobucket
    Jacksonville CD above 31% African American, 53% Obama

    Photobucket
    2 VRA districts in Mississippi

    I can't seem to do Mississippi cleaner than that.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 05:34:15 AM PST

  •  Happy Election Day friends (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, aggou, itskevin

    For all the negatives we sometimes focus on, we do have a great system.  All the more poignant this year with election day coming directly after vetera's Day (observed).  Remember how we got here, and do the bare minimum to be a good citizen, VOTE!

  •  pdx mayor (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    polling.

    Affluent voters going for Brady tells me all I need to know.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 05:59:07 AM PST

    •  If you look at Fletcher's 18 point loss (0+ / 0-)

      and figure a Beshear 25 win and assume the numbers increase equally in every county (which they won't), Williams would win Adair, Butler, Casey, Clay, Clinton, Cumberland, Garrard, Green, Jackson, Jessemaine, Laurel, McCreary, Monroe, Pulaski, Rockcastle, Russell, Whitley, however, I think Jessemaine goes to Beshear, despite that, So I say 16.

      Fletcher counties he would lose: Allen, Boone, Estill, Grayson, Knox, Lewis, Lincoln, Oldham, Taylor, Wayne.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 06:52:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  That there is a jump ball (0+ / 0-)

      It will start getting interesting next year.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 07:11:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  How Many Counties For Williams??? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    We knew Kentucky's gonna be a blowout for Beshear but given how crimson red much of south-central and southeastern Kentucky is, we can be sure Williams will still have his share of wins as Ernie Fletcher did in 2007.  I'm betting on 30 county victories for Williams, primarily in the London-Somerset area.

  •  Got lots of robocalls for Montgomery County (Pa.) (4+ / 0-)

    commissioners yesterday, including Ed Rendell. At least there's some energy.

  •  Looks like there are lines (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, bythesea, TofG, Setsuna Mudo, askew

    In Mississippi as the polls open.

    http://www.clarionledger.com/...

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

    by Alibguy on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 06:28:19 AM PST

  •  Photo ID Law in Indiana (6+ / 0-)

    Just to show how silly the Photo ID requirement is in Indiana, when I went to vote, the election clerk called me by name and asked for a photo ID.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 06:36:21 AM PST

  •  Early voting numbers for Ohio (7+ / 0-)

    112,000 in Cuyahoga County
    18,900 in Summit County
    71,000 in Franklin County

    The Columbus dispatch is also announcing that turnout should be more than 31% which was the turnout number in 2009.

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

    by Alibguy on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 06:37:40 AM PST

  •  here are some tweets (4+ / 0-)

    About kentucky's elections. It will continue to be updated.

    http://www.courier-journal.com/...

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

    by Alibguy on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 06:41:58 AM PST

  •  question (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, Odysseus, Setsuna Mudo

    this might sound odd, but do you think in 10-20 years candidates will need to defend their usernames when running for office.  

    Hypothetical: let's say josh mandel, because he's young, has a memebase account.  If there was a revelation that he made a lot of "sammich" memes" (Memes that imply, possibly ironically, possibly sincerely, that women should stay in the kitchen and bring men "sammiches") would this be a minor, but silly scandal, or nothing at all?

    Help, help, I'm in Connecticut!- Foamy the Squirrel.

    by DougTuttle on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 06:50:08 AM PST

  •  Minor Voting Machine Troubles Here in NE Ohio (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, LordMike, askew

    We're supposed to remove a tear-off stub at the bottom of the ESS paper ballot. The ballot instructions don't say to do that; machine is supposed to spit out ballots with the stubs remaining but it doesn't.

    Our machine voter count is one fewer than the number of voters who voted. But it took our ballots and seemed to count each of us.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 06:56:21 AM PST

  •  I will no longer have Barney Frank representing me (0+ / 0-)

    I think the new MA districts are a little odd.

    Live simply so that others may simply live.

    by Ann T Bush on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 07:01:07 AM PST

  •  ND-Sen: We've Got a Candidate! (10+ / 0-)

    Here's the link.

    There's really not much to say except that this is a very, very good thing. It's hard to know just how competitive this is right now, since there's no independent polling, but we should definitely fight to polls close on this one. North Dakota is a small, cheap state to compete in, and if we can win here, we are almost certainly keeping the Senate.

    •  Brian Walsh communicates like a robot (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, bythesea, askew

      Good news. At minimum it keeps it on the table rather than handing them a gimme. Particularly if Ben Nelson calls it quits.

      “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

      by conspiracy on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 07:18:26 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Untrue (0+ / 0-)

        Most robots have more of a heart than Mr. Walsh.

        "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

        by xcave on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 09:10:07 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  And by the way... (6+ / 0-)
        But unlike the liberal Washington Democrats who recruited her into this race, she's too far to the left of many voters in North Dakota.

        If I'm reading that right, isn't he saying that liberal Washington Democrats aren't to the left of North Dakota?

        "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

        by xcave on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 09:13:08 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I have to say, the New York case makes (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea

    me really angry. Especially consider several of those IDC members are Democrats in fairly Democratic districts. I can't imagine though that Diane Savino is openly sabotaging the state Democratic party, not if she intends to have a future. If this is true, I support hardball politics from state Democrats; they should run real Democratic candidates with full party backing in each of these districts, even if that means letting un-funded Republican candidates win with a fractured field.

    This is just self-serving politics at it's worst and most disgusting. Though several of these fellows were, in Cuomo's vein, pretty worthless Democrats on economic issues.

    "If people doled out nutkickings where they are deserved, the world would be a better place." -Marcel Inhoff

    by ArkDem14 on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 07:09:44 AM PST

    •  That was my first impression too (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      but looking closely makes me a lot more sympathetic.  The "IDC" are suburban liberals and their priorities/differences with the D state Senate leadership are suburban liberal priorities.  The D state Senate leadership and bulk of the membership are NYC urban politicians with the particular limitations that imposes.  They have urban poor voters and entrenched local establishments and difficult ethnic constituencies they have to serve.  Which makes bringing money back their general priority and keeping roughly status quo in other things and keeping patronage working their safest course of action.  

      Diane Savino at least is very savvy.  I think the political math from her point of view is this: NY Democratic state legislators are presently too enmired in irresponsible corruptions and scandals and representing the interests of the urban poor too onesidedly.  The Party has to reform from below in The City before this perception changes and NY voters will give them majority in the state Senate.

      The districts needed to win that majority are suburban, on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley.    And they're voting Republican as long as they consider the Democratic Party deaf to their best interests.  Sure, it's the money- but more deeply that they feel there is little true return on the money in terms of what government uniquely seeks to provide, i.e. improved quality of public life.  Someone has to go and get them some improvements in public life for these districts/voters before this embittered disappointment can change.

      The four IDC folks are in seats that can go to Republican in really bad years.  I don't think 2012 will be so bad for Democrats in NY State that they have to fear being wiped out, but they could lose simply because voters are getting angry that state Democrats in general are not shaping up.

      More interesting is that the IDC has gotten some power transferred from Republicans to liberal Democrats.  One could imagine that what is going on is a very successful charade to achieve some liberal agenda goals in a time when the NY state Senate D leadership is...otherwise preoccupied and too moderate or corrupt to be elected to majority.

  •  SF-Mayor (11+ / 0-)

    Something for you all to chuckle at:

    It's time to move forward.....away from the Tea Party!

    by ehstronghold on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 07:11:39 AM PST

  •  Also on the ballot in Ohio: Me! (10+ / 0-)

    Wish me luck in my first-ever visit to the ballot, for a city council race.

  •  TPM reports that Ohio Dems confident.... (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, itskevin, bythesea, TofG, askew

    But, think that the last PPP was way too generous.  They do think they will win, but it will be closer than 25 points.  We need to keep GOTV'ing!

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 07:16:47 AM PST

  •  Obama's 2008 Coalition Has Disbanded!!!!!!!! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, askew

    Much like the infamous incident where the PTA disbanded*, William Galston argues in The New Republic that Obama's 2008 coalition won't save him, that in effect it has disbanded. There's very little substance to the article, as Galston basically says 2008 was a fluke and that it can't be recreated. He gives no specific reason for thinking this. Apparently, we are supposed to take his words as a given.

    DCCyclone, I think you in particular would have a field day with this. So have it!

    *Also, what show is this from? C'mon guys, this ain't that hard.

    •  He looks at ideology and party identification (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, TofG, xcave, Setsuna Mudo

      instead of race and age. He's setting himself up to look foolish.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 07:36:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Try putting "Personhood" in a bunch of states (0+ / 0-)

        That coalition is going to slam back together really fast — especially young people.

        Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 10:38:14 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  The media really do love them some Gallup (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      I suggest Pew is a far better resource but this guy needs to change the record in general. Last time he was banging on about a mythical Obama strategy that ignores the traditional swing states like Ohio and Florida which is a total misread of the campaign plan. Here there is no reference at all to the likelihood Hispanic share will likely increase on its own because of changing demographics. That being said white votes are a challenge and that is where economic improvement is required.

      “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

      by conspiracy on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 07:50:11 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  He always concern trolls like this (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, bythesea, askew, jncca

      So the Democrats keep moving left? Good, because that's data trends have been saying since the 1970s. He says that he needs moderates and not just liberals? That's good news, because moderates have voted for the Democratic candidate in every election since, and including, 1988.

      And what exactly can Obama to win the "Heartland"? That's a bullshit term. Most of the Industrial Heartland has leaned Democratic since the 1990s, and most of the Rural Heartland has been solidly Republican since the 1940s.

      As for his "persuasion"? There is not some magical switch Obama can flip to make people like him again. If there were, he would have flipped it years ago. What Obama needs is a better economy.

      It's not like this magic "2008 coalition" came out of existence to make Obama win when he shouldn't have, and now it's gone. It's just what most of the Democratic coalition is made of.

      If Obama loses in 2012, it will be because everyone shifted to the GOP. Almost all demographics will vote exactly the same as they did in 2008 but with a few points shifted to the GOP.

      People panic too much on this site.

      by thematt523 on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 08:39:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  So, if I'm John McCain (0+ / 0-)

      is this something for me to be excited about?

      "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

      by xcave on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 09:17:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Really? No one else? (0+ / 0-)

      The PTA Disbands is an episode title from The Simpsons in their glory days (Season 4-7 era)

      SSP alumni, 26, Male, Democrat, TX-22 ('10)/TX-14 ('12) Pending on redistricting

      by trowaman on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 09:28:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  The whole Pioneer Valley is NOT in the 2nd! (0+ / 0-)

    Easthampton, which is most assuredly in the Valley, is now in Richie Neal's district.  Ditto Westhampton and Southampton, which are most definitely in the Valley and have far more in common in Northampton than with Springfield or Holyoke.

    As for Richie Neal, I'm not at all happy about living in his district.  I've despised Neal ever since I had the misfortune of living in Springfield while he was mayor; he's a sleazebag and has been for years.

  •  Snapshot on Ohio voting in Cleveland suburb (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, Getreal1246, Skaje, Odysseus, TofG

    I dropped my daughter off for before-school care. There were 62 cars in the parking lot at 7:15 a.m. (School is a polling place.) Subtract 3 for the daycare ladies and the maintenance man who opens up, maybe 10 more for poll workers -- that is still a huge number of people voting before work.

    I asked one of the voters going in if these was a normal crowd. He looked at me like I was crazy. "There weren't this many people here last time we elected a President."

    Way to GOTV, Kasich! Too bad they're all out voting against your initiative ... heh!

  •  Not of national significance, but local school (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, TofG

    referendum is big deal to us in Sheridan, IN. Referendum propises to raise the tax base to support schools 19 CENTS per $100 of accessed valuation.  No surprise that some Republicans are screaming NO NEW TAXES in this 85% Republican precinct.  Here is the irony--- if this modest referendum is defeated there is a stong possibility that our small school corperation will be forced to merge with the larger neighboring school corpertion.  This larger school district has a tax base $1.84 higher that the proposed referendum, plus this school district would lose local control of the school.  Govenor Mitch Daineils (R.wantabe candidate for POTUS) has pushed for measures to eliminate small schools, so there is state support to defeat the referendum.  There is a proud heritage of Football in this small school, so community support may take a strong turn to support a 19 Cent increase.  

    This does have interest for the national picture to see if Republicans will again vote againest their own best intetest to keep NO NEW TAXES pledge or if they will apply Farmer Math in this rural area.  Farmer Math means if referendun passes the profit on 1/2 bushel per acre would be needed for tax increase, but if referendum is defeated the profit on more than 10 bushels of corm per acre would be needed if consolidation is required.

    •  If this is how they are presenting it (0+ / 0-)

      I would vote a big, fat NO just for making me pull out a pad and pen and figure out how much this is REALLY going to cost me. Since you never hear anyone promoting what it will cost per HUNDRED dollars of valuation, I'd immediately say, "It's a trick to make the cost look tiny," and it is. If you figure it out, it's nearly $200 per $100,000 valuation, a much more useful yardstick. There's no such thing as a "19 cent" increase unless you have a lot of houses out there that cost only $100.

      Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

      by anastasia p on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 10:42:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  My top race today is an Aldermanic one (6+ / 0-)

    My ward has finally reached the end of a long, slightly ridiculous campaign where a 22-year-old candidate has been attacking her 19-year-old opponent as a "slick, career politician".

    You can't make stuff like that up.

  •  Going to vote in my town elections (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, sapelcovits

    here in West Hartford, CT. I'm wondering if there could be some surprises in the state's municipal elections tonight, as voters vent their anger over the week-long power outage we had.

  •  Anyone want to take bets (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    on whose political future Gloria Allred decides to destroy next?  Lolz.

  •  My brother posted this today (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, TofG, Setsuna Mudo

    On his Facebook page, my brother posted this very appropriate song by Canton natives, the O'Jays:  "Give the People What They Want."

    It's a perfect choice for those of us in Ohio today.

    "...in a society governed passively by free markets and free elections, organized greed always defeats disorganized democracy." Matt Taibbi

    by Getreal1246 on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 08:23:49 AM PST

  •  Thanks for the link to my blog (0+ / 0-)

    and my post about Josh "The Empty Suit" Mandel, who will have a flood of Citizens United/Americans for Prosperity/Freedomworks/Big Oil/Big Insurance/Big Coal/Big Pharma/Big Finance etc etc etc etc money next year to take out an excellent progressive senator Sherrod Brown, who has worked tirelessly against unfair trade deals that ship jobs overseas. Joshie will work only to ship our tax dollars to the Koch Brothers. Joshie is already trying to smear Sherrod as a "career politician" (Joshie's entire adult life has been spent running for the next higher office to put him on the fast track to the White House - he hasn't paused long enough to actually accomplish anything) who should "focus on creating jobs" — something Joshie has never lifted a finger to do. He has voted against regulating cockfighting in Ohio though. What a guy.

    Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

    by anastasia p on Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 10:47:02 AM PST

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