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Obama leads Ohio
Public Policy Polling. (PDF) 11/4-6. Ohio likely voters. MoE ±3.1% (Oct. 2011):
Barack Obama: 50
Mitt Romney: 41

Barack Obama: 50
Herman Cain: 39

Barack Obama: 51
Newt Gingrich: 38

Barack Obama: 51
Michele Bachmann: 37

Barack Obama: 53
Rick Perry: 36

Mitt Romney does the best of the bunch, but all of the Republican candidates are doing poorly, ranging from Romney's nine point deficit to Rick Perry's 17 point margin.

In 2008, Obama won Ohio 52-47, so these sorts of margins almost seem hard to believe, but as PPP's Tom Jensen points out, this is coming from the same poll that pegged the SB5 referendum by within one point. Jensen also points out:

[...] voters there regret how they voted in 2010- our poll found that if voters could do it over they would have reelected Ted Strickland by a 55-37 margin over John Kasich. And if voters feel like voting for the GOP in 2010 was a mistake, that can only help Obama's prospects for reelection next year. It's pretty much impossible for Republicans to defeat Obama next year without taking Ohio—and for now the President's in a real good position there.

Despite the lead, it would be a mistake to assume President Obama has things locked up in Ohio. His net approval rating is negative—41% approve and 49% disapprove. His Republican opponents, however, are deeply unpopular, making up for his weak job approval rating. Herman Cain is the most popular Republican, but his net favorable rating is -10, with just 33% rating him favorably and 43% rating him unfavorably. Romney's is -20 (28%/48%).

Also worth pointing out: despite nonstop bleating by pundits about how Barack Obama has a big problem with white voters, among white voters, he leads each of the Republican candidates among white voters, ranging from a one point lead over Romney (46%-45%) to an eight point lead over Rick Perry (48%-40%). All things considered, if that's a problem, it's not the kind of a problem that President Obama minds having.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Nov 09, 2011 at 09:25 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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