• MA-Sen: On Wednesday, we heard that Karl Rove's front group would start airing attack ads against Democrat Elizabeth Warren; yesterday, we received confirmation that his Crossroads GPS has begun doing exactly that, supposedly with a $600K ad buy. The spot, which you can watch here or below, tries to link Warren to the Occupy Wall Street movement:Crossroads is also airing ads targeting Democratic Sens. Jon Tester (MT), Ben Nelson (NE), and Claire McCaskill (MO), as well as Virginia Senate candidate and former DNC chair Tim Kaine. The Hotline originally said the total buy (including Warren) was for $1.8 million over two weeks, but a later update put the Mass. total at about $240K, rather than the $600K reported by the Washington Post earlier in the day. So either that's just what they're spending for the first week, or Crossroads is using "the math" made infamous by its founder. Anyhow, you can watch the other spots here.
• AZ-Sen: Wow, it looks like Barack Obama finally got his huckleberry in the open seat Senate race to replace retiring Republican Jon Kyl. Former Surgeon General Richard Carmona, who up until now was engaged in quite the Hamlet act in response to Democratic recruitment efforts, has declared that he will, in fact, run for Senate. Carmona will face a primary in the form of former state Democratic Party chairman Don Bivens, who's already secured the endorsements of ex-Reps. Harry Mitchell and Ann Kirkpatrick. (James L)
• CT-Sen: Former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker, who had been toying with a run for some time, says he won't enter Connecticut's Senate race. Walker had considered entering either as an independent (he's a founder of No Labels, barf), but some Republicans had also tried to recruit him into their fold. Either way, not gonna happen now.
• IN-Gov: Democrat John Gregg is formally kicking off his campaign this weekend—something that was long expected ever since the former state House speaker converted his exploratory committee into an official one back in August. Ordinarily, this sort of news is too commonplace to rate a mention here, but I can't pass up the opportunity to highlight Gregg's awesome 'stache-based logo (big h/t to HoosierD42):
• AZ-04: It's hard to know if this is going to matter, because it's of course impossible to know what Arizona's new congressional map is going to look like at this point. But Republican Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu, who has his eye on the proposed new 4th, reportedly has raised $127K in his first two weeks as a non-candidate. (He said he wouldn't make a formal decision until next year.) If something resembling the new map is put into place, these numbers might inspire GOP freshman Paul Gosar to stay in the swingish 1st rather than move over to the much redder 4th, if only to avoid a primary battle.
• CA-30: A California law firm has set up a super PAC (with the groany name of the "Valley-Israel Alliance"), aimed specifically at helping Dem Rep. Howard Berman in his looming primary battle with fellow Rep. Brad Sherman. Berman's campaign disavows any knowledge of the principals, who themselves aren't saying much about their intentions, beyond supporting Berman. A few candidate-specific super PACs have sprung up so far, but this appears to be the first dedicated to a House race. Start of a trend?
• IL-10: Looks like a couple of Democratic primaries in Illinois are about to get busier. In the 10th, where neither consultant Brad Schneider nor activist Ilya Sheyman have emerged as the clear frontrunner, businessman and Air Force reservist John Tree has apparently sensed an opening and is jumping into the race. If Tree doesn't wind up dominating and the race remains in flux, I wonder if his entry will benefit Sheyman: Tree is touting his military credentials, and Schneider is decidedly a centrist, so it seems like they're more likely to wind up going after a similar pool of votes, while Sheyman aims to carry the progressive mantle.
• IL-13: Meanwhile, in the 13th, Democrats had been left without a top-tier candidate to take on GOP Rep. Tim Johnson after ex-state Rep. Jay Hoffman decided to make a comeback bid for the state House instead. But now, after saying last month that he wouldn't run, Greene County State’s Attorney Matt Goetten has had a change of heart and will indeed make the race. He'll face physician David Gill in the primary.
• MD-04: Battle lines are forming in the emerging three-way Democratic primary in the redrawn 4th CD, where former Prince George's County State's Attorney Glenn Ivey and Anne Arundel County Councilman Jamie Benoit are both vying to unseat Rep. Donna Edwards. Both Ivey and Edwards are black, and while the Congressional Black Caucus traditionally supports incumbents, Ivey (who was once a staffer for Michigan Rep. John Conyers) has ties to the organization, which is refusing to comment on the race so far. Others are speaking up favorably on Edwards' behalf, such as EMILY's List, the SEIU, and Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas.
• NC-08, IA-03: Dem Rep. Larry Kissell got a double dose yesterday: The NRCC is going up with another one of its small buys ($10K) for its "jobs plan = stimulus" ad, while the conservative American Action Network is splitting $100K between Kissell and fellow Dem Leonard Boswell with some spots about the budget.
• NJ-10: We're up to a pretty remarkable number of potentially viable primary challenges to members of the Congressional Black Caucus—challenges which actually make sense, at least on pure political grounds, since redistricting is shuffling territory around, and of course the Democratic primary is the only game in town for nearly all black-majority districts. The latest comes out of New Jersey, where Newark Councilman Ronald Rice, described as an ally of Mayor Cory Booker, reportedly plans to take on veteran Rep. Donald Payne. This also looks like a potential old guard vs. young guard battle, as Payne is 77 while Rice is in his early 40s.
• NY-19: A second Democrat has entered the race to take on GOP freshman Nan Hayworth: Wappingers Falls (pop. 5,500) Mayor Matt Alexander, who joins cardiologist Rich Becker. Hayworth may not wind up as her party's nominee, though, as state Sen. Greg Ball has hammered her repeatedly—and hasn't ruled out a primary challenge.
• WA-09, WA-10: Buried in this non-conclusive piece about the status of redistricting in Washington (still up in the air) is a suggestion that Republican Dick Muri, who ran against Rep. Adam Smith in the 9th last year, might seek a rematch—or might run in the new 10th, depending on where it's drawn. Muri, a member of the Pearce County Council, ran a somewhat competitive race last year, losing 55-45, but he raised just $240K.
• VA-St. Sen.: It's over: Democratic state Sen. Edd Houck has conceded to Republican challenger Bryce Reeves, thus officially dropping the Virginia state Senate into a 20-20 tie when it reconvenes in January. That gives power to Republicans because, as you know, GOP Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling will be able to cast the decisive vote when needed.
• NV Redistricting: Republican Assembly Minority Leader Pete Goicoechea, whose party most definitely lost out when a Carson City judge re-drew the state's legislative and congressional maps, says he doesn't think anyone will bother to appeal the ruling to the Nevada Supreme Court. More importantly, check out that 'stache.
• VA Redistricting: Big surprise: Now that they've taken back the state Senate—giving them the redistricting trifecta—Virginia Republicans say they'll wait until January to redraw congressional boundaries, when they formally gain control of the chamber. There's not a lot to fear here, though, seeing as the GOP has no choice but to implement the incumbent-protection map that will (attempt to) preserve its 8-3 majority. In fact, we already know what that plan almost certainly looks like, since the Republican-dominated House passed such a map earlier this year.