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Leading Off:

MA-Sen: On Wednesday, we heard that Karl Rove's front group would start airing attack ads against Democrat Elizabeth Warren; yesterday, we received confirmation that his Crossroads GPS has begun doing exactly that, supposedly with a $600K ad buy. The spot, which you can watch here or below, tries to link Warren to the Occupy Wall Street movement:

Crossroads is also airing ads targeting Democratic Sens. Jon Tester (MT), Ben Nelson (NE), and Claire McCaskill (MO), as well as Virginia Senate candidate and former DNC chair Tim Kaine. The Hotline originally said the total buy (including Warren) was for $1.8 million over two weeks, but a later update put the Mass. total at about $240K, rather than the $600K reported by the Washington Post earlier in the day. So either that's just what they're spending for the first week, or Crossroads is using "the math" made infamous by its founder. Anyhow, you can watch the other spots here.

Senate:

AZ-Sen: Wow, it looks like Barack Obama finally got his huckleberry in the open seat Senate race to replace retiring Republican Jon Kyl. Former Surgeon General Richard Carmona, who up until now was engaged in quite the Hamlet act in response to Democratic recruitment efforts, has declared that he will, in fact, run for Senate. Carmona will face a primary in the form of former state Democratic Party chairman Don Bivens, who's already secured the endorsements of ex-Reps. Harry Mitchell and Ann Kirkpatrick. (James L)

CT-Sen: Former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker, who had been toying with a run for some time, says he won't enter Connecticut's Senate race. Walker had considered entering either as an independent (he's a founder of No Labels, barf), but some Republicans had also tried to recruit him into their fold. Either way, not gonna happen now.

Gubernatorial:

IN-Gov: Democrat John Gregg is formally kicking off his campaign this weekend—something that was long expected ever since the former state House speaker converted his exploratory committee into an official one back in August. Ordinarily, this sort of news is too commonplace to rate a mention here, but I can't pass up the opportunity to highlight Gregg's awesome 'stache-based logo (big h/t to HoosierD42):

Gregg Logo
NH-Gov: Stonyfield Yogurt CEO Gary Hirshberg, who has been talked up as a possible candidate for elective office more than once, says he won't seek the Democratic nomination for governor. So far, the only declared candidate on our side is former state Sen. Maggie Hassan, though several others are still waiting to decide.

House:

AZ-04: It's hard to know if this is going to matter, because it's of course impossible to know what Arizona's new congressional map is going to look like at this point. But Republican Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu, who has his eye on the proposed new 4th, reportedly has raised $127K in his first two weeks as a non-candidate. (He said he wouldn't make a formal decision until next year.) If something resembling the new map is put into place, these numbers might inspire GOP freshman Paul Gosar to stay in the swingish 1st rather than move over to the much redder 4th, if only to avoid a primary battle.

CA-30: A California law firm has set up a super PAC (with the groany name of the "Valley-Israel Alliance"), aimed specifically at helping Dem Rep. Howard Berman in his looming primary battle with fellow Rep. Brad Sherman. Berman's campaign disavows any knowledge of the principals, who themselves aren't saying much about their intentions, beyond supporting Berman. A few candidate-specific super PACs have sprung up so far, but this appears to be the first dedicated to a House race. Start of a trend?

IL-10: Looks like a couple of Democratic primaries in Illinois are about to get busier. In the 10th, where neither consultant Brad Schneider nor activist Ilya Sheyman have emerged as the clear frontrunner, businessman and Air Force reservist John Tree has apparently sensed an opening and is jumping into the race. If Tree doesn't wind up dominating and the race remains in flux, I wonder if his entry will benefit Sheyman: Tree is touting his military credentials, and Schneider is decidedly a centrist, so it seems like they're more likely to wind up going after a similar pool of votes, while Sheyman aims to carry the progressive mantle.

IL-13: Meanwhile, in the 13th, Democrats had been left without a top-tier candidate to take on GOP Rep. Tim Johnson after ex-state Rep. Jay Hoffman decided to make a comeback bid for the state House instead. But now, after saying last month that he wouldn't run, Greene County State’s Attorney Matt Goetten has had a change of heart and will indeed make the race. He'll face physician David Gill in the primary.

MD-04: Battle lines are forming in the emerging three-way Democratic primary in the redrawn 4th CD, where former Prince George's County State's Attorney Glenn Ivey and Anne Arundel County Councilman Jamie Benoit are both vying to unseat Rep. Donna Edwards. Both Ivey and Edwards are black, and while the Congressional Black Caucus traditionally supports incumbents, Ivey (who was once a staffer for Michigan Rep. John Conyers) has ties to the organization, which is refusing to comment on the race so far. Others are speaking up favorably on Edwards' behalf, such as EMILY's List, the SEIU, and Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas.

NC-08, IA-03: Dem Rep. Larry Kissell got a double dose yesterday: The NRCC is going up with another one of its small buys ($10K) for its "jobs plan = stimulus" ad, while the conservative American Action Network is splitting $100K between Kissell and fellow Dem Leonard Boswell with some spots about the budget.

NJ-10: We're up to a pretty remarkable number of potentially viable primary challenges to members of the Congressional Black Caucus—challenges which actually make sense, at least on pure political grounds, since redistricting is shuffling territory around, and of course the Democratic primary is the only game in town for nearly all black-majority districts. The latest comes out of New Jersey, where Newark Councilman Ronald Rice, described as an ally of Mayor Cory Booker, reportedly plans to take on veteran Rep. Donald Payne. This also looks like a potential old guard vs. young guard battle, as Payne is 77 while Rice is in his early 40s.

NY-19: A second Democrat has entered the race to take on GOP freshman Nan Hayworth: Wappingers Falls (pop. 5,500) Mayor Matt Alexander, who joins cardiologist Rich Becker. Hayworth may not wind up as her party's nominee, though, as state Sen. Greg Ball has hammered her repeatedly—and hasn't ruled out a primary challenge.

WA-09, WA-10: Buried in this non-conclusive piece about the status of redistricting in Washington (still up in the air) is a suggestion that Republican Dick Muri, who ran against Rep. Adam Smith in the 9th last year, might seek a rematch—or might run in the new 10th, depending on where it's drawn. Muri, a member of the Pearce County Council, ran a somewhat competitive race last year, losing 55-45, but he raised just $240K.

Other Races:

VA-St. Sen.: It's over: Democratic state Sen. Edd Houck has conceded to Republican challenger Bryce Reeves, thus officially dropping the Virginia state Senate into a 20-20 tie when it reconvenes in January. That gives power to Republicans because, as you know, GOP Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling will be able to cast the decisive vote when needed.

Redistricting Roundup:

NV Redistricting: Republican Assembly Minority Leader Pete Goicoechea, whose party most definitely lost out when a Carson City judge re-drew the state's legislative and congressional maps, says he doesn't think anyone will bother to appeal the ruling to the Nevada Supreme Court. More importantly, check out that 'stache.

VA Redistricting: Big surprise: Now that they've taken back the state Senate—giving them the redistricting trifecta—Virginia Republicans say they'll wait until January to redraw congressional boundaries, when they formally gain control of the chamber. There's not a lot to fear here, though, seeing as the GOP has no choice but to implement the incumbent-protection map that will (attempt to) preserve its 8-3 majority. In fact, we already know what that plan almost certainly looks like, since the Republican-dominated House passed such a map earlier this year.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Here's the thing about Rove and Warren: (13+ / 0-)

    She's already out in front of it, speaking on OWS.  She may not be a politician, but she learns REAL fast.

    This may backfire on Rove.

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 05:18:38 AM PST

  •  FL sen Q (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zornorph, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    Nelson up 2 on Mack, 42-40.

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    If this holds up when other pollsters poll it, then I guess Mack was the game changer Republicans needed. Also, he's up in the primary.

    20, Male. DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

    by aggou on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 05:36:04 AM PST

    •  Well (8+ / 0-)

      Nelson still leads with independents, and is not unpopular at all. Mack may have a slight announcement bump that can't last a year. Not saying he'll fade away, but that I still put this race at Lean D for now.

      Let's see a few more polls before we move it to tossup.

      People panic too much on this site.

      by thematt523 on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 06:08:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Nelson's at 47-27 approval (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      That is what makes him stronger than the topline makes him appear. Nelson also has strength in North Florida, where he outperforms other Democrats and with Presidential level turnout in South Florida, he has what he needs. Obama would need to dip below 45% in the state for Mack to actually defeat Nelson.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 07:18:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I hope you're right (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        I don't think Sen. Bill Nelson does as well in north Florida with President Obama at the top of the ticket as he did in 2006; that area, outside of Jacksonville and maybe Gainesville and Tallahassee, is a Yellow Dog region trending away from us, and while I'm not a major subscriber to the notion that latent racism seriously hurt Obama in 2008, there's no question it was more of a factor in Appalachia and the Deep South than it was in, say, Minnesota or New Mexico.

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 08:42:36 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  If this holds... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, LordMike, MichaelNY

      I think it's time to worry. Right now it might just be an artifact of a combined announcement bump and Quinnipiac's demonstrable (albeit small) Republican house effect, as it's not a result in line with previous polling.

      That being said, Rep. Mack is a far stronger candidate than I think anyone realistically expected the GOP to field in this race, and he should be taken very seriously. And if it's a choice between keeping Benny the Purple DINOsaur within striking distance or making sure the other Sen. B Nelson remains favored, I think the DSCC should and will opt for the latter.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 08:40:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I can't honestly see (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, KingofSpades

      that lasting, unless the Kochs are prepared to spend ludicrous amounts of money on Connie. Nelson's approval numbers amoung Democrats are soft enough to suggest that there's plenty of room for him to grow, and grow he should.

      •  And why wouldn't they be? (0+ / 0-)
        unless the Kochs are prepared to spend ludicrous amounts of money on Connie

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 09:08:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Because not even (0+ / 0-)

          Koch money supplies are infinite. Given that they wish to gain (and maintain) influence all across America, they've got a lot of politicians and would-be politicians lining up to suck at their teats. They, in short, must prioritise - find ways to get the most bang for their buck.

          And there's no way - in Florida specifically - that Governor Skeletor won't be a drag on the GOP candidates across the board. He can't be recalled or impeached, and the GOP owns all responsibility for each and every stupid bil lhe signs into law.

    •  Mack voted for the Ryan budget (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      Nelson just needs to say that a few hundred thousand times.

      "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

      by xcave on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 10:09:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Given Northern Virginia's growth, can the GOP (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Rich in PA, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    realistically hold onto 8-3 reps in a presidential year?

    •  Virginia is lost to the GOP longer-term n/t (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, Setsuna Mudo

      But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

      by Rich in PA on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 05:52:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not really (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

        Certainly not for congressional seats.  Given how the population is concentrated, it will be hard to see how a 6-5 map could be created any time soon.  

        And its pretty likely that the GOP will ALWAYS have a seat at the re-districting table now that they have pretty much permanent control of the HOD.

        •  Remind me, what are the Obama-McCain (0+ / 0-)

          numbers for the new districts in Virginia?

          As long as they aren't skewed too badly against us, I wouldn't give up hope. And even if they are, who knows? Part of the reason the numbers would look so bad is that the state wasn't really contested until 2008. Perhaps they'll bounce back once the Republicans contest the state as actively as Democrats, but that's not clear.

          Suffice it to say that we should continue to look for opportunities and make our own. I don't see a completely blue map any time soon, but it doesn't seem like such a conservative state, all around, that we need to give up on huge parts of it.

          •  That's the problem (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

            It may not seem like "such a conservative state" but that can be said about lots of places.  PA is going to have a permanent 12-6 GOP majority the next 10 years.  Why, geographic concentration of democrats and GOP domination of state government.  Its the same recipe in VA.

            The idea that the state votes for Obama doesn't trickle down because Obama doesn't run for Congress and winning the state overall is far different from winning 11 congressional districts.  I just don't see much opportunity in VA at the congessional level, maybe we'll get a corruption scandal to get a 4th seat, but its hard to see the GOP map that would ever get a 5th Dem seat, so 8-3 is what we should expect.

            This is why a state house elctions are so frigging important, especially in eyars ending with 0 :-)

            •  I understand that votes aren't evenly distributed (0+ / 0-)

              around the state. I should have also mentioned that we can use presidential years to drive turnout in ways we can't during a midterm to flip what we can. While hardly a complete solution, it can be part of it.

              It's hard to say what's what in a state like Virginia, or Pennsylvania, without looking at the districts. I'm curious why you think a 12-6 map is guaranteed in Pennsylvania. Do you have a link to the new map? What about Virginia?

              I know this is far easier said than done, but unless we are dealing with a ton of R+15 districts, an all-out effort to win should at least get us closer. Perhaps a perfect storm of circumstances will be the trick that gets us over the hump, but maybe not. We won't be screwed in all places, but if we are screwed in a lot of them, what else can we do? Simply ceding huge parts of the country to the Republicans is something I just can't live with.

              •  I don't think we're ceding anything (0+ / 0-)

                Its just the nature of who's doing re-districting.  I think there is opportunity to turn VA bluer but I'm not sure what that means at the congressional level.  getting trounced in the HOD just gives the GOP a bigger bench to draw from for congressional races in the future.

                As for PA, while there isn't a final map, it would take someone almost intentionally trying to draw a Dem map not to end up at 12-6 GOP.  Since the GOP has the whole thing, its hard to see how even an attempt at 13-5 would produce a true dummymander.  Quite simply, its too easy to strengthen 5 current GOPers in PA while strengthening one Dem (Holden most likely).

                Sure in PA there are more opportunities for flips since we are taking lean R districts, but since people like Gerlach have withstood Dem waves and decent andidates in the past, I jsut don't see how we beat him in a more GOP seat....

                •  I disagree on PA... (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  TofG, MichaelNY

                  to a degree as a resident here.  Some level of dummymandering will continue.  

                  In theory, a 12-6 solid map would be easy to draw.  In practice, however, it will be difficult for the following reasons.  

                  1.  The Republicans should be eliminating BOTH Altmire and Critz, and create a new Democratic seat in the Philly Burbs.  It's clear their combining the two, however, even though their district will probably be R+4 to R+6 and easily be held by a Republican with a bit more tweaking.  

                  2.  There's a limit to how Democratic you can make Holden's seat.  For example, if they move the district into the Wyoming valley, and remove too much of his base in Shuykill County, he could run in the new R-leaning seat, and win, and the Democrats would get a free gimme.  Indeed, I think Holden fears a primary challenge if his district gets too Democratic-leaning more than he fears a more Republican district, given the choices he made when given similar options in 2001.  

                  3.  PA-8 has historically contained all of Bucks.  While they might break this pattern, it's surrounded by swingy to Democratic areas on all sides, meaning it will never be a safe R district.

                  4.  PA-15, also, is difficult to make safer unless you chop it to hell and take out Allentown.  Which Charlie Dent wouldn't be amenable to.

                  5.  The other two Republican seats in the Philly burbs could easily be made into safe R seats, if they expanded further out from Philly, edging into PA Dutch country.  However, Joe Pitts has made it clear he doesn't even want to part with his base in Chester County.

                  The result of all this, I think, will be a largely standpat map.  I think the PVI of a number of districts will shift.  Erie will be divided, which will make PA-3 safe for Republicans.  And PA-13 will be made into a more effective Democratic gerrymander.  Still, the five Republican-held D-leaning districts in the East won't be much safer.  There's already been some floating that Lou Barletta won't get any substantial changes to his district, suggesting the Republicans think he's a goner regardless.  

    •  A 7-4 map (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

      May be the best to hope for. Central and SW Virginia are just too Republican.

      People panic too much on this site.

      by thematt523 on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 06:39:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Unfortunately, yes. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Especially given how well Republicans still do most of the time (2006, 07, and 08 excepted) in the more outlying parts of NoVA that are where the real has been the last decade, and how much redshifting has been going on in some of the more rural parts of the state.

      Still, 8-3 could be something of a dummymander by the end of the decade.

      Those outer suburbs are diversifying. It was the case for a while that Democrats couldn't win anything in northern Virginia that wasn't either inside the Beltway or in Reston. And that's clearly no longer the case. With the population shifting, someone's being asked to grab a more significant chunk of Northern Virginia than he has now, even moreso if you send the 10th out into more rural areas in search of more reliable Republicans.

      I wouldn't expect to see 6 Democrats out of 11 again anytime soon, but it's not hard to imagine seeing a Democrat from the Tidewater (who isn't Bobby Scott) or VA-01 turning blue thanks to growth in the northern part of the district.  

       

      Stuck Between Stations : Thoughts from a bottomless pool of useless information.

      by Answer Guy on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 08:19:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      The Republicans can redraw the districts to give the Democrats three safe seats, while protecting all their incumbents to some degree. The circumstances that led to VA-02 and VA-05 flipping (strong Obama performance, strong Dem challengers, and unpopular incumbents) aren't going to occur again. VA-10 isn't going to flip while Frank Wolf is in the seat, and even open, the Republicans would have the advantage, as the Democrats have no bench there and parts of the district (particularly Loudoun County) have swung hard against them.

    •  If they redistrict (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Northern VA into three seats, yes. They write those off, and gerrymander their way ot victory elsewhere.

      And gerrymander they do - any house where 59 of the seats aren't competitive enough to draw challengers (as is the vase with the VA House of Delegates) is heavily gerrymandered.

  •  Glad to see (5+ / 0-)

    That Karl Rove likes wasting money.

    He actually picked good targets for the most part, but Massachusetts isn't one of them.  Warren is probably headed for a strong victory unless she blunders badly.

  •  Bye Herman. I see the next GOP flavor of the month (6+ / 0-)

    is here (ugh).

    A new CBS News poll shows three candidates in the top tier of the Republican presidential race: Herman Cain at 18%, Mitt Romney at 15% and Newt Gingrich at 15%.

    "Support for both Cain and Romney has declined since late last month, and Gingrich is the only one of the top three whose support is steadily -- if slowly -- on the upswing."

     Key finding: 61% of Republican primary voters say the sexual harassment accusations against Cain won't make any difference in their vote, but 30% say the charges make them less likely to back him.

    •  Damn (6+ / 0-)

      You beat me to it. I really hope that Gingrich is the next flavor of the month, precisely because whoever is the next flavor is likely to be the nominee.

      21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

      by wwmiv on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 06:07:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Feel the Newtmentum! (8+ / 0-)

      Insider Advantage also has a new poll showing Newt continuing to rise in Iowa and (more importantly) South Carolina. The Newtmentum has been clear to see for the past two weeks and is starting to get a lot of coverage. Not sure how it all plays out; I think Romney does have a big advantage still.
      Gingrich's money has started to roll in at a fast clip. Everyone knows that Herman Cain will continue to deflate and after that soul-crushing gaffe in the debate, Rick Perry's relaunch has stalled out. There's really nowhere else to go for the not-Romney people than to Newt.

      I am Zornorph; the one who comes by night to the neighbor's yard.

      by Zornorph on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 06:30:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Could you imagine a Newt nomination? (7+ / 0-)

        Look at Romney's numbers! 15%!

        I don't know what his support was like in their previous polls but 15% would knock Romney down from marginal front runner to just another "also running" candidate. If Cain continues to collapse and the rest of Perry's support evaporates that could easily give Newt a comfortable margin above Romney.

        •  Oh (5+ / 0-)

          Oh, don't underestimate Romney. He'll have lots of $ and an organization that any candidate would love to have. Newt is starting to staff up in the early states now, but Romney is way ahead of him on a national level. What might help Newt if he maintains his Newtmenum is that Ron Paul is organizing the hell out of the caucus states - something that was left to Romney back in 2008 - and may prevent Romney from sweeping those. Newt might snatch the nomination away from Romney, but it won't be in a blowout.

          I am Zornorph; the one who comes by night to the neighbor's yard.

          by Zornorph on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 07:01:53 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  If nothing else (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            The Caped Composer, MichaelNY

            A drawn out primary pushes Romney to the right, especially with Newt as main opponent.  A drawn out Newt candidacy also turns a decent amount of moderates off or back to tossup/Lean D, so that's a GE upside.

          •  Citizens United/Evangelicals (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Zornorph, JGibson, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

            There are hard-right organizations that have an extensive network already in place. I'm sure Newt could have an infrastructure up incredibly quickly while blanketing early states in advertising if these organizations coalesce behind him.

            Also isn't he based in Atlanta? That gives him a foothold in the South, plus he's next door to South Carolina and North of Florida.

            One poll doesn't make Newt favored or Romney an "also ran", but I'm just saying if this is the trajectory of the race Newt could probably have something in place really quickly.

            •  Newt (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

              Newt effectively lives in Virginia these days, and he was born in PA, so he's a transplant to GA. Not that he doesn't have a bit of juice down there, but he's not a 'true southerner' the way Rick Perry is. But I do give him the inside track to SC given how Perry and Cain are imploding. Romney did quite poorly there in 2008.

              I am Zornorph; the one who comes by night to the neighbor's yard.

              by Zornorph on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 07:16:44 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Is it okay to say (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

          this is proof that Romney's support is hardly thorough? DCCyclone, among others, has said there won't be any any enthusiasm advantage had by one side or the other next year, and while I agree that if it does appear, it won't be huge, but it doesn't need to be huge to make a difference. And while being Not Obama can help make up for any difference, that alone won't carry him.

          As far as Gingrich goes, Dave Weigel tweeted this week that a Democratic source of his said people would be filled with glee if he were up against Obama. And how could that not be true?

          •  Just because (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

            Just because Obama's people would love to run against Newt doesn't mean it would work out for them. The well-known example is that Carter and his people wanted to run against Reagan. I do consider Romney more electable, but Newt would fire up the base more and he's also running a more positive campaign (which is odd for Newt). Gingrich has high negatives, but I think those could be brought down and if the economy is bad, Obama will remain in trouble.
            If Romney gets the nod, he'll put Rubio on the ticket and that will help fire up the base.

            I am Zornorph; the one who comes by night to the neighbor's yard.

            by Zornorph on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 07:27:49 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Definitely true. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TofG, MichaelNY

            I think about 5-10% of Romney's support comes from moderates and the other 5% from the really rich establishment GOP.  That leaves another 5-10% that is probably in his corner because (like many of us) they just assume he'll probably get the nod.

            If someone else starts gaining traction those people could simply just switch to the front runner.

        •  Won't stick (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          This is a SINGLE result. Don't built an entire infrastructure on it.  Romney's not going away.

          Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

          by anastasia p on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 07:28:13 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  He doesn't have to... (5+ / 0-)

            If he's mired at 15-25% support. Admittedly, the 15% number strikes me as unusually low (most polls have had him in the 20-25% range, with some slightly higher than that), and this kind of result (tied with Gingrich) will need confirmation before it looks less outlieresque.

            But I've been predicting the resurrection of Gingrich for the past few weeks now, and if Cain isn't able to staunch the bleeding and Gingrich continues to run as...not even really everything the Republicans are looking for, because he certainly isn't, but as a credible alternative to the distrusted Romney...he could peak just in time to make a splash in the early caucuses and primaries. And then the GOP would be stuck with him.

            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 08:51:07 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Newt Gingrich, ha! You can't make this stuff up. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, TofG, MichaelNY

      Who else sees the next ten years as being the Republican equivalent of the 80s (re: Presidential elections)? Oh this will be fun~

      Yami Yugi: Wait a minute! Did you just summon a bunch of monsters in one turn? Seto Kaiba: Yeah. So? Yami: That's against the rules, isn't it? Kaiba: Screw the rules, I have money! — Episode 1, Yu-Gi-Oh! The Abridged Series

      by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 10:01:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  For Obama to win in a landslide (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo

        I think the economy has to really be humming next year. We'll see if I'm right. And he certainly won't win 49 states.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 09:18:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  No but (0+ / 0-)

          42 is possible if Gingrich is nominated.

          Yami Yugi: Wait a minute! Did you just summon a bunch of monsters in one turn? Seto Kaiba: Yeah. So? Yami: That's against the rules, isn't it? Kaiba: Screw the rules, I have money! — Episode 1, Yu-Gi-Oh! The Abridged Series

          by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Nov 12, 2011 at 04:22:37 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Unlikely (0+ / 0-)

            Which states are you saying Gingrich would win? Utah, Alaska, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, Idaho, Nebraska, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Louisiana - that seems like a very conservative listing of states that have almost no chance of going Democratic in this cycle. And that's 14 states. And it's quite improbable for Obama to win South Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana, and the Dakotas in this cycle, either.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 12, 2011 at 10:13:54 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  CO (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    No Colorado thread?  

    As far as Nelson that poll is really upsetting, Mack could be the real deal in FL.

    30/D/M/NY-01/SSP: Tekzilla

    by Socks The Cat on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 06:21:45 AM PST

  •  When it comes to Warren (7+ / 0-)

    Rove is right to be scared.

    She is just about the most articulate person that I have ever seen speaking relative to consumers and bank/financial contracts.

    She resonates, if given the media exposure, with the majority of Americans.

    I can imagine her being the next 'junior Senator' who moves into the Oval Office.

    Blogging regularly at Get Energy Smart NOW! for a sustainable energy future.

    by A Siegel on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 06:34:39 AM PST

  •  I'll admit (0+ / 0-)

    I don't know very much about Elizabeth Warren, so I googled "Elizabeth Warren Occupy Wall Street."

    A news article popped up at the top of the results where she talks in circles to avoid saying she supports Occupy Wall Street while still trying to maintain some vague support.

    It is a great example of mushy politician talk. I really hate it when politicians ramble on and on in answer to a question spitting out talking points without ever addressing the actual question.

    Maybe some day we can get past this, but I guess that is doubtful.

    •  If this is the (4+ / 0-)

      interview you're talking about, I think you misinterpreted it.

    •  the 'mushy talk' came from the interviewer, with (4+ / 0-)

      the oblique questions attempting to manipulate her into a quote that could be used to frame her as claiming creation of the Occupy phenom.

      from what I read, I think she attempted to extract and address a few issues out of his pre-push-polling without being impolite and telling him off directly.

      It seems curiosity has killed the cat that had my tongue.

      by Murphoney on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 06:56:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  They seemed fairly direct to me (0+ / 0-)

        The fact that she doesn't want anybody to be able to actually say that she supports OWS, while at the same time appearing to support OWS is why it seemed "mushy."

        •  These are not direct questions: (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

          (nor do they ask if she "she supports OWS")

          http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

             INTERVIEWER: Is it fair or not fair for them to link you so closely with Occupy Wall Street
          This question asks Warren whether she agrees with Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS ad linking her to Occupy Wall Street.  Framing it as a supposed question of "fairness" is a dodge.
             INTERVIEWER: So these are your people?
          If this question is not absolutely meaningless, then this loaded phrase seeks to have her claim leadership and a measure of direct control over (not support of) Occupy.
             INTERVIEWER: So their mission, their philosophy, their tactics, you all agree with?
          Even if this question were constructed correctly it would be neither direct nor simple in that it tries to get Warren to give blanket-approval of these protests as if they had one (1) goal or mission and any cohesive, definable "philosophy" (whatever that is meant to entail) -- not to mention in lumping tactics in on top, this interviewer attempts to have her claim ownership of every event, every statement and all the consequences of the collective protesters and the opposing police brigades, in toto.

          Let me ask you -- did Warren say anything that OWS doesn't support?

          It seems curiosity has killed the cat that had my tongue.

          by Murphoney on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 07:47:32 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  If you go back (0+ / 0-)

            And reread that interview without the blinders of support for Warren, maybe your opinion will change.

            Or maybe not.

            But to me they seemed like fair questions that got debate answers, much like the white house response to the various petitions they've "responded" to.

            •  If you explain how I misinterpreted those (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin, Setsuna Mudo, askew, MichaelNY

              questions, I will consider whether or not you have a point to make.

              But let me ask you, again -- did Warren say anything that OWS doesn't support?

              It seems curiosity has killed the cat that had my tongue.

              by Murphoney on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 08:36:29 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Okay. (0+ / 0-)

                "Is it fair or not fair for them to link you so closely with Occupy Wall Street?"

                - spouts talking points, doesn't answer the question.

                "So these are your people?"

                - spouts talking points, doesn't answer the question.

                "So their mission, their philosophy, their tactics, you all agree with?"

                - answers question that wasn't asked, avoids answering question.

                Not only does she not answer the questions asked, she doesn't even acknowledge them, she just goes rambling on her campaign talking points.

                Literally every question was avoided.

                Why even bother getting interviewed?

        •  She does appear to engage in some circumlocutions (0+ / 0-)

          But look at this:

          We don’t speak with a unitary voice anywhere about what needs to be changed. There are lots of people, lots of voices — whether they’ve taken to the streets, whether they’re sitting at home saying, `this doesn’t work anymore.’

              We need a lot of voices saying, we’ve got to have change. Because it’s clear: Washington’s not looking to change on its own. And Wall Street is going to keep pumping money into Washington, pumping it into elections, to make sure that their way is the dominant way in this country. I think that’s wrong.

          You have to pay attention to the word "we." When she uses the word "we," she really does make clear that she is part of the movement. Add to that the fact that she says

          It’s fair to say that I’ve been protesting Wall Street for years and years.

          and you really don't have such "mushy talk" at all.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 09:25:12 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  ? (6+ / 0-)

      She's come out very strongly behind it.  All of the "mushy" language I've heard from her was just to avoid sounding like she was taking credit for the entire movement, which is wise.  Al Gore and the Internet, anyone?  

  •  Rove ad a gift. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    Ummmm.....Let's see:

    "We need jobs"
    "We need jobs"

    Very prominent in the ad, and...

    The OWS anger ain't so different from Tea Party anger ain't so different from anger all around those parts of the country where the men don't where silk stockings and get served old Scotch by an even older butler.

    Face it -- it ain't so hard to admit that some of the folks showing up at protests are -- like some of the Tea Party folk -- "out there".  Protests tend to be merely the visible fringe of a larger phenomenon, and Warren's statements -- also prominently figuring in Rove's ads -- are on the right side of this one.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 06:35:47 AM PST

  •  Nelson only up 42-40 over Mack (0+ / 0-)

    in Quinnipiac poll.

    “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

    by Paleo on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 06:39:14 AM PST

  •  That's it? That's their big "attack ad" on Warren? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    All they did was attack the Occupy movement.  Which the majority of people already support.  So the goal of their "attack ad" is to link Elizabeth Warren with a movement that the majority of people support and share the same feelings?

    Well all I can say Mr. Rove is, Thank You.

  •  Proposed Warren opposition ad (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    milkbone, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    - Text: You've all seen this ad
    - Play 5-7 seconds of Rove's 'Warren' ad
    - Text: Why won't Those funding this ad identify themselves?
    - Text: This ad buy cost more than a half a million dollars
    - Text: Big money interests are afraid of Elizabeth Warren
    - Text: That much.
    - Mood change, uplifting music
    - Positive Elizabeth Warren information for 13-17 seconds
    - Identification of the supporters and funders of this ad

    Sun Tzu would love the fact that this strategy turns the one percenter's almighty dollars against them.

    'You want a job, don't you?' - Herman "Koch" Cain, "The Audacity of Grope"

    by thenekkidtruth on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 06:46:31 AM PST

  •  Karl Rove and His Column (0+ / 0-)

    Not that this is the biggest deal in the world, since Karl Rove is kind of a clown and The Wall Street Journal editorial page is run by clowns, but why is Karl Rove allowed to write a column and still do what he does on the outside? Nobody takes the editorial page seriously, but the news pages of The Journal are still taken seriously, and it's one of the biggest paper in the country and arguably the most important financial paper in the world. It's not as if he's merely writing a column for the National Review, in other words.

  •  Perhaps this was already mentioned (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    But Newark Councilman Rice is Ron Rice Jr.  Son of State Senator Rice, who lost to Booker for Mayor.  Senator Rice is the third-most senior NJ Senator having served since 1986 (all according to Wikipedia; I'd quote if not on my phone).  So Rice Jr. would seem to be quite plugged-in.  

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 06:49:20 AM PST

  •  .'a tribe's greatness is figured on how mighty its (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, itskevin, Setsuna Mudo

    its enemies be'

    Elizabeth Warren is indeed great.

    (quote from the movie Jeremiah Johnson spoiler alert!)

    Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. -Frank Zappa

    by TheGrandWazoo on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 06:55:44 AM PST

  •  I hope everyone involved in the OWS protests (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    takes note of which political party is trying to smear them.

  •  So Warren's campaign needs to respond that (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    neoliberal economic theory, derivatives, trickle down economics, and corporate personhood are all "intellectual theories" that are destroying the planet, the well-being of all humanity, and the environment.  

    There has to be some way to deal with pricks like Rove.  Let's just for once stop being nice and start fighting like our lives depend on it.  They do.

  •  Who gives a crap about Rove (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Liz Warren is becoming very popular with many baystaters. I hope Rove pumps more money into this and loses badly.  

  •  Rand Paul enters Wisconsin politics (4+ / 0-)

    Not sure why anyone in the State of Wisconsin cares who Rand Paul endorses in the GOP primary but here it is, Rand Paul has seen the future and it is Mark Neumann.

    link:http://gazettextra.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 07:17:09 AM PST

  •  He also targeted Kamala Harris (0+ / 0-)

    how did that work out for Rove again?

  •  Also against Sherrod Brown in Ohio (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Can't recall which group (front name is something like 60 Plus) but they are all about how Sherrod Brown voted to take away your Medicare which of course he didn't but his opponent Josh Mandel supports the Paul Ryan plan.

    Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

    by anastasia p on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 07:26:00 AM PST

  •  Attacking Ben Nelson? He hasn't done enough for (0+ / 0-)

    the Republican party as a conserva-dem?
    Gee, maybe Nelson should have considered supporting us instead of the GOP.

    Being ignorant is not so much a shame, as being unwilling to learn. - Poor Richard's Almanac 1755
    The government exists to protect us from the thugs who got rich ripping off our ancestors. - Mungley 2011

    by mungley on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 07:30:53 AM PST

    •  No, he hasn't (0+ / 0-)
      Attacking Ben Nelson? He hasn't done enough for the Republican party as a conserva-dem?

      Which is why they are attacking him. I think it's a pretty good idea to pay attention to that. And before you make the point that his conservatism hasn't protected him from attacks by the Republican Party, consider that he isn't trying to win the Republican Party nomination, but just to get enough votes from Republicans and Independents to get reelected (assuming he actually decides to run).

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 09:31:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Kentucky State Senate update (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    John David Dyche says replace David Williamsas State Senate President in Kentucky. This guy is very close to Mitch McConnell. However, knowing Williams, he won't go anywhere voluntarily.

    Here is the cn2 article:
    http://mycn2.com/...

    Also, in the Kentucky Senate, Sen. Tim Shaughnessy (D-Louisville) is not seeking reelection. Republicans already hae about 2 and 1/4 seats in Jefferson County. Would they weaken Sen. Julie Denton or Dan Seum to make this seat more competitive? We may find out soon. Speaker Stumbo wants a special session this year on redistricting.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 07:31:37 AM PST

  •  SurveyUSA has Obama tied in PA, (0+ / 0-)

    20, Male. DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

    by aggou on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 07:38:06 AM PST

    •  Argh (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, askew, MichaelNY

      This is faulty.  PA will be won by Obama convincingly.  I'm tired of the swing-state things.  Its not nearly this close here.

    •  Someone check my math (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

      This poll says Romney wins Northeast PA 55-34 (If I'm reading it right).  Obama won the big counties (in what I call NEPA) in 2008:

      Lackawanna: 63%-37% (28K vote margin)
      Luzerne: 54%-45% (11K vote margin)
      Monroe: 58%-42% (11K vote margin)
      Northhampton: 56%-43% (17K vote margin)

      The majority of the other counties are so small that McCains wins didn;'t move the needle.

      It seems like Obama must have won NEPA (depending on how you define it geographically) in 2008 and SUSA has him losing by 21 points?

      •  I can't get worked up by this until we know (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        what SUSA defines as Northeastern Pennsylvania. Also, doesn't it strike you as odd that Obama would be performing well in Western Central Pennsylvania, as in only five points behind Romney, which just has to include a lot of those counties that went for McCain?

        On the other hand, if this poll is accurate, I guess it's good he's doing so well in the Southeastern part of the state.

        Does anyone know what SUSA's track record in the state is?

        •  SUSA's crosstabs have always been wacky (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          It's a weird poll, though. I'd like to know who commissioned it. Asking questions about VP selections, not polling Herman Cain or Gov. Perry? It's odd. It's not worth throwing out, not by a long shot, but it is an odd poll.

          Seems pretty strange that Romney is tied in Pennsylvania at the same time he's down by nine points(!) in Ohio, though.

          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 08:45:25 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I guess (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          But even if I bring NEPA frther south toward Philly or West the numbers get no worse for Obama in 2008, since the counties to the west are small and offer smaller vote totals and further south towards Philly went for Obama.  Maybe Lehigh flips to Romney in 2012 but that wouldn't drive the whole of NEPA and the rest of the area would still need to flip 20% towards Romney to make these numbers happen.

          I guess my concern isn't whether this is a demographic (i.e. race, gender, etc) which gets extrapolated.  76% of respondents were landlines, and with landlines you can tell where people live.  So I'm wondering if the Region question was asked or determined based on landline.  It seems an odd question to get wrong, especially with 80+ people being polled in NEPA.

      •  Don't forget (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        that Lackawanna County voted 60-40 even for Sestak.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 09:26:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  To few minorities in the poll (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, MichaelNY

      Sample is 86% white. In 2008 exit polls showed whites making up 81% of the electorate.

      •  Eh, within MoE (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        But the 20-30 point swing in NEPA is just not explainable.  And its that that is really keeping it closer than it should.

        Everything in this poll, if nothing else, points to 45% being Romney's high water mark.  Looking at the geopgraphy (bjssp points out, if NEPA is too pro-Romney, West Central PA is probably to pro-Obama in this poll), $ undecded's for ages 18-34, etc all point to Obama winning.

    •  SEPA strongly supports Obama in this poll. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I guess that's contrary to what illinoyedR said

      'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

      by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 09:07:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I can quibble with the internals, but... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, TofG, MichaelNY

      that's two polls in a row showing PA a tight race.  It shouldn't be taken for granted.  PA has always been a close race until the Democrat eventually pulls ahead the weekend before election day.  That will probably hold true this time around, too.

  •  ColoradoRedistricting (4+ / 0-)

    The District Court here in Colorado chose the Democrats map which is a 2-2-3 map.  Gives a good chance to Dems to pick off Coffman and Tipton.  Sinks chances in Dist 4 to knock off Gardner.  Big Victory.  See Denver Post Article Here.

    •  I disagree with analysis (6+ / 0-)

      This map is a 3-2-2

      1, 2, and 7 are Safe Dem
      3 and 6 are Swing
      4 and 5 are Safe Republican

      21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

      by wwmiv on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 08:03:26 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  4th (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, Setsuna Mudo

        That, and I still think that Schaffer could beat Gardner.

        21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

        by wwmiv on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 08:07:09 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  4th (cont.) (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, Setsuna Mudo

          McCain won it with around 57% of the vote (after sketching it out in DRA), maybe slightly higher. Certainly a tough haul for Schaffer, but not completely impossible.

          21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

          by wwmiv on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 08:36:27 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  shaffer's not a conservaDem (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sapelcovits, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

            so the 4th is gone

            18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 09:15:34 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  McCain's 57% (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            doesn't even fully explain how red this seat has become.  McCain only got 50% in the old CO-04 and that seat still leaned pretty red at the local level.  That was a seat Bush got 58% in.  Which by a decent amount of extrapolation means the new CO-04 is a seat that Bush probably hit around 65% in.

            This is not a seat that a mainstream Democrat like Brandon Schaffer can win.  This seat would take someone like Walt Minnick (barf) to win, and even then it would have to be in the best of years for us with some kind of implosion on Gardner's behalf.

            With the exception of Greeley and Longmont, the new CO-04 is practically a GOP vote sink.  We lucked out with this map because there's no visually appealing way (read: something a court would like) to get 6 seats a Democrat can reasonably attempt to win in Colorado.  I was initially excited when I heard the headline because I thought the judge had picked the first map Democrats had proposed in the legislature, which made an ultra-GOP vote sink by cracking out the swingy areas of Colorado Springs and sinking the rest in with Douglas County (which would get you something like a McCain 65% seat/Bush 73% seat).  It was a 3 Dem, 3 Swing, 1 ultra-GOP map and it was glorious.

            Sadly the Democrats had to concede two GOP seats in any kind of map a court might like.  This is still a fantastic map for us, I don't expect Coffman to be able to hold his newly made 54% Obama seat, and I think Tipton was weakened by like a percent.  And our three incumbents are still plenty safe.

  •  What kind of fucking idiot (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    would fall the horse hockey in the Warren ad?? I can understand how one might not like her, not want her ideas in Congress, think Scott Brown is the berries, etc., etc. but  how many people in MA have flunked their GED...what a waste of $600K

  •  John Gregg (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    licorice114, itskevin, Setsuna Mudo

    definitely rocks the bro-stache.

  •  CO Redistricting (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Setsuna Mudo

    The district judge has ruled in favor of the Democrats' proposed map!  It gives Democrats 2 seats, Republicans 2 seats and makes the other 3 competitive.  The big victory here is CD6, where Coffman has been put in a district that is 1/3 1/3 1/3 between Rs, Ds, and Us.  State Senate President Brandon Shaffer got the short end of the stick, however, with CD4 now being totally out of reach.

  •  Another Minnesota poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, askew, MichaelNY

    After going months without any polling in Minnesota we have the 3rd poll out in a week, this one from St Cloud State University. The numbers pretty much match the other recent polls

    http://www.scribd.com/...

    Obama 45
    Romney 39

    Obama 47
    Cain 36

    Obama 53
    Bachmann 25

    The amendment banning same sex marriage trails 44-47

    BTW here are the cross tabs from the recent Minnesota SUSA poll. They were not released until yesterday.

    http://www.surveyusa.com/...

  •  About IL-13 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson, Setsuna Mudo

    I just met David Gil and he's not as inadequate as you make him out to be. He's overall pretty liberal except for gun rights and he even does the night shift at a hospital ER while campaigning. His only problem is that he's short on fundraising because he doesn't take corporate money so if we started an Act Blue page he'd be set to go.

  •  TX-Senate Redistricting: What happens here? (0+ / 0-)

    Will there be interim court maps and they will simply just hold off the Davis v. Texas case for the time being?

    'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

    by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 09:08:28 AM PST

  •  Further Evidence (5+ / 0-)

    Of a Gingrich surge:

    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/...

    21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

    by wwmiv on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 09:09:23 AM PST

  •  Special election results from Tuesday (6+ / 0-)

    Don't want to bother with a diary, and it's probably too long to post in the digest, so here's the roundup:

    Arizona SD-16 recall - Russell Pearce lost his recall by a rather wide margin; fellow Republican Jerry Lewis beat him 55-44.

    Georgia SD-28 - This goes to a runoff between Republicans Duke Blackburn (with 28%) and Mike Crane (with 20%).
    Georgia SD-50 - This also goes to a runoff between two Republicans, Rick Austin (43%) and John Wilkinson (39%).
    Georgia HD-10 - Republican Terry Rogers won this outright, defeating two other Republicans with 61% of the vote.
    Georgia HD-25 - The wonderfully-named Emory West Dunahoo Jr. and Bobby Banks, who got 21% and 20%, respectively, will go to a runoff. They're both Republicans.

    Iowa SD-18 - Democrat Liz Mathis held this one, defeating Republican Cindy Golding by a 56-44 margin.

    Michigan HD-51 recall - The recall of Republican Paul Scott was a success, but only just barely. "Yes" won by a mere 1% of the vote.

    Mississippi SD-08 - I can't find the special results, but Democrat Russell Jolly held this seat 2-1 in the general, so that probably means he won the special as well.

    Missouri HD-15 - Republicans got a fright in this seat; Democrat Paul Woody came within 38 votes of defeating Republican Chrissy Sommer.
    Missouri HD-39 - Democrat Judy Morgan won easily here, getting 77% of the vote.
    Missouri HD-41 - Democrat Brandon Ellington was unopposed.
    Missouri HD-83 - Independent Tracy McCreery defeated Democrat Jeff O'Connell and Republican Patrick Brennan by a 44-29-27 margin. McCreery ran as an independent because she didn't get the Democratic nomination, so I'm assuming she'll just enter the legislature as a Democrat.

    New York AD-148 - Another close call for Republicans; Raymond Walter held this seat for his party by only a 51-49 margin.

    Tennessee SD-06 - Republican Becky Duncan Massey easily held this seat with 64% of the vote.

    Texas HD-14 - It's a runoff between two Republicans, Bob Yancy (36%) and John Raney (28%).

    Washington LD-04 (Senate) - Republican Mike Padden defeated appointed Republican Sen. Jeff Baxter by a 55-45 margin.
    Washington LD-49 (House) - Appointed Rep. Sharon Wylie was elected in her own right, winning 56% of the vote.

    Wisconsin AD-95 - Democrat Jill Billings won this one in a landslide: 73-27.

  •  How much longer... (5+ / 0-)

    is Fox News and the right going to claim that Doug Schoen is a "Democratic Pollster"? He's one of them and they're welcome to him.

  •  Is Gregg's 'stache (4+ / 0-)

    for real? Wow - we may be heading back to the days of "Walrus" Taft for the Presidency!

    But then, America could do far worse than Taft - and has, often enough.

  •  MD Gov't is all-for-me and one-for-one (0+ / 0-)
    • MD-04: Battle lines are forming in the emerging three-way Democratic primary in the redrawn 4th CD, where former Prince George's County State's Attorney Glenn Ivey and Anne Arundel County Councilman Jamie Benoit are both vying to unseat Rep. Donna Edwards. Both Ivey and Edwards are black, and while the Congressional Black Caucus traditionally supports incumbents, Ivey (who was once a staffer for Michigan Rep. John Conyers) has ties to the organization, which is refusing to comment on the race so far. Others are speaking up favorably on Edwards' behalf, such as EMILY's List, the SEIU, and Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas.

    it's what you get when you have More Dems, but not necessarily Better Dems.

    Thump! Bang. Whack-boing. It's dub!

    by dadadata on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 11:30:10 AM PST

  •  Re: AZ-Sen. PLEASE DEFINE HUCKLEBERRY (0+ / 0-)

    I want to understand what is meant by Obama getting his huckleberry in this race!

    Urban Dictionary says it can me several totally contradictory things:
    http://www.urbandictionary.com/...

    •  Well, Phil Rizzuto (0+ / 0-)

      the hall-of-fame Yankees shortstop and broadcaster, used the word to mean "guy." So I just think it means he got his man.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 09:42:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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