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Thursday evening, District Judge Hyatt ruled in favor of the Congressional map submitted by the Democrats in Colorado's redistricting lawsuit.  This is a great victory and we needed one to make up for getting completely effed in other States.  

The map's most drastic move is to redraw the 6th and 7th to surround Denver instead of the earmuffs we had before with the 7th and the 6th taking in all of Douglas and Elbert.  The map basically becomes 2-2-3 and gives us a fighting chance at a 5-2 advantage in the Colorado.

So here's a brief run down of each below:

Statewide:

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Denver Metro Area:

Photobucket

CD1 (D-DeGette): This district changes the least overall, it did have to take in more people.  The way Democrats did it was the best way possible.  CD1 now reaches down south-west of Denver to take in Ken Caryl and Columbine in Jeffco, the reddest parts of the county that were previously in CD6.  Still more than safe for DeGette (in the general) at 70% Obama and 66% Dem average.

CD2 (D-Polis): This district keeps its core in Boulder County (minus Longmont) and the Ski towns, but rather than reach into the northwest Denver suburbs, it now takes in Larimer County, the bluest part of CD4 and the foothills region of Jeffco.  It then reaches into Park County to take in Bailey for COI purposes.  Still safe for Polis at 61% Obama and 56% Dem average.

CD3 (R-Tipton): The 3rd is hard to change in any substantial way without breaking up the western slope, so it only changes this time around were on the edges.  The district gives up Las Animas and most of Otero County to CD4 in exchange for western Eagle County and all of Lake County.  It does get a slight bump to the left, going from 47% Obama to 48.5% Obama and then 45.5% Dem average.  Lucky for us Tipton is a moron so this district is as winnable as ever.

CD4 (R-Gardner): Here's where Democrats had to make sacrifices.  To make the 6th highly competitive, the 4th picks up most of Douglas County and all of Elbert County, that plus the loss of Larimer moves this district several points to the right, going from 49% Obama to 42% Obama and 36% Dem average, I'd say it's out of reach for the next decade.  Brandon Shaffer still lives here since Longmont remains in the district (as requested), but we'll see if he stays in the race now.

CD5 (R-Lamborn): The other district that changed the least was the 5th.  Only change was losing Lake County to the 3rd, so less than a percentage point move to the right.  At 39.5% Obama and 34.5% Dem average it remains the reddest in the State.

CD6 (R-Coffman): Now it gets good.  The 6th was almost totally remade.  Rather than taking in the southern and more Republican burbs plus Douglas and Elbert Counties, the 6th becomes centered around Aurora, one of Denver's bluer suburbs.  The district then reaches around into Adams to take in Brighton and the far northern edge of the suburbs.  It keeps the southern suburbs of Littleton, Centennial and Greenwood Village, which all tilt to the right, but were won by Obama.  The reddest part of this district is Highlands Ranch, which is now the only part of Douglas in the 6th, except for a single precinct that is part of Aurora.  The new district is basically 1/3 Democratic, 1/3 Republican and 1/3 Unaffiliated and is 53.5% Obama and 47% Dem average.  With Coffman the Republicans best hope at taking out Udall in 2014 expect a real fight for this seat, and look for other Democrats to jump in as well.

CD7 (D-Perlmutter): Perlmutter has proven unbeatable in even the worst year, so this new district gets a little redder.  Rather than make a ring around the north of Denver, this district takes in most of the Adams County suburbs and the Jeffco suburbs, making it the northwest ring around Denver, while the 6th is the southeast ring.  Most of these suburbs are highly competitive and Democtas have done very well here.  The new district is 57% Obama and 51% Dem average, definitely competitive, but Perlmutter should be fine.

Overall this map is great for Democrats, putting one more seat within reach that wasn't before and keeping at least one other seat competitive.  If 2012 turns out to be a great year we could end up with a 5-2 advantage again, but even in an ok year a 4-3 advantage is definitely attainable.  The Republicans are sure to appeal, but they did so 10 years ago and that went nowhere so I don't expect this one to either.

12:33 PM PT: And here's another close in metro map with shadows showing where the cities are:

Photobucket

Poll

How many seats will Democrats in Colorado hold after 2012?

3%3 votes
12%12 votes
48%48 votes
35%35 votes

| 98 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  I get rid of Gardner and get Polis (0+ / 0-)

    I'm up in Larimer, so this is a good deal for me.  The 4th was never that competitive anyway, it took a real wave election to get a Dem in there and they had to be a blue dog.

  •  As a CD-3 dweller (0+ / 0-)

    this is all sorta academic for me. As far as Tipton goes, you're right he's a moron, but my neighbors voted for him. I hang my head that J. Paul Brown is my State Rep. Whenever I have called Tipton's office, I get some weasely lying kid on the line. They do not know his position on anything unless it is the talking point du jour. They misrepresent, obfucate, and "will pass your thoughts onto the Congressman" while being unable to even confirm if he has EVER had an open house in Durango. It's hard to imagine Tipton being re-relected, but then I can't believe it happened even once...

    "The better I know people, the more I like my dog."

    by Thinking Fella on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 10:08:07 AM PST

  •  Good briefing (3+ / 0-)

    I had been looking around for numbers - thanks for providing them.

    In general I like the map, both for political reasons as well as for realigning communities of interest.

    CO-01 is probably the most jarring COI wise.  Ken Caryl is not going to be happy with being placed in DeGette's district - that's Tancredo Territory.

    CO-02 loses part of Eagle - I can't tell just where the line is, but I'm guessing we lose some ski communities that were part of our COI.  But we gain Estes Park and the Larimer Front Range, which is definitely in our COI, and also Ft. Collins which arguably is better associated to the other major college town, Boulder, than it was with the ag communities of CO-04.

    CO-03 gets a slight alignment shift, and they seem mostly okay with the line shift - certainly nothing dramatic there.

    CO-04 gains rural Douglas, which seems appropriate enough; and they've got all of the Eastern Plains now, rather than having the southernmost parts lumped in to CO-03.

    CO-05 doesn't change much; they'll be fine.

    And I think organizing CO-06 and CO-07 as they are, along the southern and eastern flanks and the northern and western burbs of Denver makes sense, too.  Certainly more than the previous CO-07 map, which was a horrendous snaking thing.

    The new district lines in CO-02 are going to take some getting used to; up in the mountains we're still getting acquainted with south JeffCo in state HD-25 (which is going to be a hard slog to win); now we'll also be working with Larimer - and I'm glad to have Estes Park and Ft. Collins joining the rest of the northern Front Range communities and Boulder.

    Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves. - William Pitt

    by Phoenix Rising on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 10:12:16 AM PST

    •  Do we have close-ups? (0+ / 0-)

      I live (and have since I moved from Colorado College) in a sapphire blue section of CD-1 (a stone's throw south of DU).  But I'm wondering about my parents.  Do we have a Douglas County closeup?  It looks like there's a small bite-mark north of Parker and east of Stonegate that's going to the 6th.  If that contains Ponderosa Hills, they'll be very happy and I may have to change my registration back there to help Miklosi.  

  •  Columbine? Don't you mean Littleton? (0+ / 0-)

    'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

    by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 10:33:46 AM PST

  •  A good deal. (0+ / 0-)

    BTW, what do you think of Sal Pace?  Can he beat Titpton?

    'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

    by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 10:35:55 AM PST

    •  That's going to be a tough race (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, Marcus Graly

      But if anyone can oust Tipton, it's Scott Tipton.  This is the guy who promised to cut the Federal government in half, after all...

      Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves. - William Pitt

      by Phoenix Rising on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 10:55:26 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Public Urination (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      If he can raise boat loads of money and if people don't care that much about public urination and what the driving w/o  license stuff he stepped into!  I think we can do better in terms of recruits, but Sal Pace will do against someone like Tipton who was one of the worst state legislators (and that's saying a lot)

  •  Thanks for the rundown (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, dufffbeer

    I think this is a pretty favorable map. Probably the best we could get from a court.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 03:22:42 PM PST

  •  Good summary (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    My favorite map was the one that Democrats proposed early on which would have carved out the Dem-leaning areas of El Paso County (south Colorado Springs) and given them to CO-03, and the resultant loss of population from CO-05 would allow it to move north and take in Douglas County.  It would have been the most effective GOP vote sink, something like 65% McCain.  That would have kept both CO-03 and CO-04 winnable, while also doing the same rearrangement of CO-06 and CO-07 that eventually happened anyway.  In short, it would have given us a shot at going 6 out of 7 in good years.  But the cracking of El Paso didn't seem to go over well so they backed off a bit map submitted to court.  This is still quite good though and I think Coffman will be at a disadvantage with his best areas removed and now having to represent heavily minority areas in north Aurora.  His seat has dropped from about 88% white to around 64% white.

    Mostly though, I think he is in trouble because he hasn't really had to defend his seat until now.  He just coasted on the massive numbers Douglas and Elbert counties delivered for him.  He only took 56% in the Arapahoe County portions of his seat in 2008 (which is basically the most conservative southern part).  Now he has the rest of Arapahoe and a good portion of Adams County to contend with.

  •  Neat (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, KingofSpades

    4 effective vote sinks, and 3 swing districts. Seems fair.

  •  Aurora Loses Ed (0+ / 0-)

    Rep Ed Perlmutter was the most important Representative for Aurora. Coffman is a total loser and never did much for the city.

    Also, Ed is a constant thorn in the VA Secretary's side to ge the new VA hospital built.

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