No, not that Connie Mack
Quinnipiac. 10/31-11/7. Registered voters. MoE ±2.9% (GOP subsample MoE ±4.3%). (
9/14-19 results):
Bill Nelson (D-inc): 42
Connie Mack (R): 40
Undecided: 16
Connie Mack (R): 32 (--)
George LeMieux (R): 9 (17)
Mike McCalister (R): 6 (11)
Adam Hasner (R): 2 (5)
Craig Miller (R): 2 (5)
Undecided: 45 (58)
Rep. Connie Mack IV's awkward yes-no-yes dance with the Florida Senate race all year, and his even-more-awkward entry into the race a few weeks ago, were good for some laughs, but you can stop smiling now. If Quinnipiac's first poll of the race since Mack's entry is to be believed, the Republicans got what they wanted here (and had been sorely lacking before): Someone who can make the race against two-term Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson competitive. Even if Mack is getting a bit of an announcement bump here that might fade, he should be able to keep this race within the single digits, meaning one more juggling ball the DSCC has to keep aloft next year. (There's also the possibility that Florida's elderly voters are confusing Mack with his less ideological father, two-term Sen. Connie Mack III—or, for the especially elderly, with his great-grandfather, baseball legend Connie Mack I—and Mack's newfound popularity might fade a little once they find out more. I wouldn't count on that as Nelson's silver bullet, though.)
Nelson's approvals are actually quite good (he's the very model of the beloved-by-few-but-tolerated-by-everyone politician), at 47/27, which is further improved from 45/32 in September. This is Quinnipiac's first time polling the general election using a named candidate, but Nelson had been previously cleaning up against Generic R, beating him 43-34 in September. (Quinnipiac has been regularly polling the GOP primary, though, which has been a morass of unknowns ... until now. Given their primary numbers, I'd expect the field to start clearing for Mack soon.) Seeing as how Mack is overperforming Generic R and coming close to Nelson despite Nelson's approvals, he seems a pretty likable candidate too; notwithstanding Mack's bungled entry to the race, Democrats are going to have to take this one very seriously.