Republicans still mulling their choice for top clown of 2012
Polling Company (R). November 11-13. Likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers. MoE not reported. (No trendlines.)
Herman Cain: 20
Newt Gingrich: 19
Mitt Romney: 14
Michele Bachmann: 10
Ron Paul: 10
Rick Perry: 5
Rick Santorum: 4
Jon Huntsman: 2
Gary Johnson: 1
Five things jump out at me:
- Herman Cain is still riding high. For Iowa Republicans, social conservatism doesn't include the type of behavior that elicits five complaints from women about inappropriate behavior, two of which resulted in a financial settlements.
- Newt Gingrich hasn't replaced Herman Cain, but he's leapfrogged Romney. Apparently, social conservatives think if you love straight marriage, you should do it as much as possible.
- Mitt Romney still hasn't figured out how to break his ceiling. It seems like every candidate in the race has imploded besides him, but he still is in third.
- Michele Bachmann is showing some signs of life. I don't think I've seen her in double-digits in any poll since July or August.
- Why is Jon Huntsman still on debate stages while Gary Johnson isn't?
But probably the most important thing is that these numbers show an unsettled field. Not only is no candidate breaking away, most of those surveyed said they were not definitely committed to their current preference. In fact, no candidate breaks double-digits when it comes to committed supporters:
Cain has 9 percent of voters "definitely" backing him, while Romney and Gingrich have 8 percent "definitely." Paul has 7 percent "definitely," while Bachmann has 4 percent in that category.
At around this time in 2007, Mike Huckabee was starting to make his move to the top of the Iowa caucus field, pushing aside Mitt Romney. That, of course, set the stage for John McCain to rebound with his victory in New Hampshire, effectively blocking Romney from getting the momentum he needed to win the nomination. But this time around, we don't see a candidate emerging the way Huckabee did in 2007, at least not yet. The one thing I'm pretty sure of is that Rudy Giuliani won't be getting the nomination.