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Leading Off:

WI-Gov: During the Green Bay Packers' Monday Night Football game, Gov. Scott Walker aired an ad to make the case against the recall effort that is newly targeting him. The intro is deeply weird, with a school board member talking to the camera in front of a jet black background, sounding somewhat pained, speaking in an odd cadence, and audibly breathing, almost to the point of seeming like exasperated sighs. Oh, and the barely-audible music is bizarro, too. Then Scotty Dubs hops on the scene and acts like Mr. Cheerful. I don't know what to say, except check it out for yourself:

There's more discussion in WisJohn's diary, but so far as I can see, no word on the size of the buy. I have to imagine it was locally targeted, though—would Walker really blow money on sticking his ugly mug in front of a national audience? Even so, an MNF buy is surely more expensive than, say, taking out a spot on your local TV news.


NY-Sen (PDF): Ordinarily I might be inclined to give a poll like this its own post, seeing as these are some of the first numbers testing Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand against (potential) named Republican opponents. But given that she leads former state Comptroller candidate Harry Wilson 63-21 and Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos 65-17, you can see why I'm relegating these to the digest.

OH-Sen: For a state treasurer, Josh Mandel sure sucks at actually keeping track of his own money. First there was the half-year-long saga of his missing personal financial disclosure; now the Ohio Dems have busted him for failing to record the purpose of some 300 expenditures in his most recent FEC filing. Mandel's excuse is the kind of crap that didn't even pass muster when I tried it on my 8th grade English teacher twenty years ago: a "software glitch."

VA-Sen: This is sort of surprising. George Allen has agreed to meet all of his Some Dude-esque primary opponents in a series of three debates next spring sponsored by the state GOP. I guess maybe he thinks he can look all senatorial by comparison?

UT-Sen: State Rep. Chris Herrod, who has been considering a run against Sen. Orrin Hatch for the GOP Senate nomination, says he hopes to decide by the end of the year. That's also the same timeframe put forth by another possible challenger, state Sen. Dan Liljenquist.


MO-Gov: While the "Anybody But Romney" movement has been an utter failure so far on the national level, at least the GOP seems to have succeeded with its "Anybody But Kinder" efforts in Missouri. Plastics magnate Dave Spence now says he will run in the gubernatorial primary, regardless of what Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder does. In October, when he first confirmed his interest, Spence said he'd only run if Kinder didn't, but last week, he started changing his tune and suggested he might get in regardless of what Kinder decided. Evidently, he didn't want to wait any longer.

In related news, Republicans have also found a replacement for state House Speaker Steven Tilley, who abruptly dropped out of the Lt. Gov. race late last week. State Sen. Brad Lager says he'll run for the post, which means that even if Kinder wanted to drop down and seek a third term as LG, he wouldn't have a clear field here either. (Indeed, at least two other state senators are also considering the race.) So Kinder is now officially squeezed no matter where he goes—though given his immense baggage and propensity for unforced errors, Democrats have to hope he doesn't drop out of politics altogether.


AZ-08: On Monday night, ABC aired the first public interview given by Rep. Gabby Giffords since she was shot in January. The Atlantic's Erik Hayden summarizes:

In the clip below, seated with husband Mark Kelly, Giffords is asked (2:20) whether she sees herself returning to Congress, she replied, "No ... better." She paused briefly after that and looked at her husband, who clarified, "She wants to get better." And, after Sawyer asked the follow-up question if she would go back to Congress if she got better, Giffords nodded, "Yeah."
CO-06: In a bid to ward off potential primary opponents in the suddenly-much-more-appealing 6th CD, state Rep. Joe Miklosi just put out a long list of endorsers, featuring every Democratic legislator in the state House. As the Denver Post notes, some of these supporters were possible candidates themselves, so they've taken themselves out of the running—but still no one has heard either way from former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.

IL-10: As Dave Catanese notes, it's definitely an unusual move: House Whip Steny Hoyer is taking sides in the 10th District Democratic primary, a race which doesn't involve any incumbents or former members. Rather, he's endorsing consultant Brad Schneider, whose campaign seemed to have hit a stall in the last few months, pulling in a surprising $79K in 3Q after a hefty $321K in Q2. Schneider is competing with progressive activist Ilya Sheyman for the nomination, and they've also recently been joined by businessman and Air Force reservist John Tree. In fact, though Catanese doesn't mention Tree at all, I wonder if his entry is what prompted Hoyer to rally around Schneider.

MA-06, MA-04: Former state Senate minority leader Richard Tisei is going to have company in the Republican primary: Attorney Bill Hudak, who lost to Dem Rep. John Tierney by a 57-43 margin last year, says he's going to run again in the redrawn 6th. Meanwhile, Republican Elizabeth Childs, a former state mental health commissioner, says she plans to challenge Dem Rep. Barney Frank in the revised 4th, which looks to have gotten a bit redder (but is still quite blue).

MD-06: This comes as no surprise, since he didn't sound very interested when his name first surfaced, but former Montgomery County executive Doug Duncan says he won't run in the Democratic primary for the 6th CD. Interestingly, he says he's looking to "help" John Delaney, the financier who only first said he was looking at the race just the other day.

Duncan also took a gratuitous shot at fellow Democrat and state Sen. Rob Garagiola, the frontrunner for the nomination. Duncan claimed that Garagiola will face "resentment" over how the district was redrawn (something that Garagiola allies in the state legislature had a hand in). Garagiola fired back, pointing out that Duncan's preferred candidate, Delaney, doesn't exactly have the kind of profile you want when running for congress these days. (I suspect "money lenders" are not too well thought-of in this economic climate.)

MI-03: We all knew this had to happen… the only question was who. Well, that's still the question, because unhappy Michigan Republicans still haven't found anyone to challenge dystopian loose cannon Justin Amash in a primary. Amash is the kind of guy who does think there is an "I" in "team," and he regularly votes against GOP leadershipor the rank-and-file.) The only name even hinted at is that of former SoS Terri Lynn Land, but she declined a run for Senate earlier this year and is apparently helping ex-Rep. Pete Hoekstra with his own Senate bid. Would be really interesting if Amash managed to make it back for a second term.

NC-05: That was quick: Wilkes County Democratic Party Chairwoman Treva Johnson had only just created an exploratory committee to challenge GOP Rep. Virginia Foxx the other week, but now she's already making her bid official. Tough sledding in this very red district, though.

NC-08: Is Richard Hudson the man to beat in the crowded GOP primary fight to take on Dem Rep. Larry Kissell? Hudson, a former district director for ex-Rep. Robin Hayes, just announced that he's raised over $100K in his first month in the race, but as the News & Observer notes, it's his donor list that's particularly interesting:

Hudson's contributions include $5,000 from Barbara Hayes, the wife of his former boss, Congressman Robin Hayes, who is now state party chairman, and $2,500 from Robin Hayes's son, Robert Hayes Jr. […]

He also received $5,000 from ERICPAC, the political action committee of House Majority leader Eric Cantor, who endorsed Hudson at a recent campaign event.

NC-10: And another fast turnaround from "just exploring" to "actually running" for a North Carolina Dem: Asheville Mayor Terry Bellamy will indeed challenge GOP Rep. Patrick McHenry, barely a week after saying she was considering the race.

ND-AL: If you've heard about a recent poll of North Dakota's open-seat House race from a firm called "Odney," North Decoder's Adam Blomeke tells you why you should ignore it. It's being pushed by a Koch brothers-funded faux media organization called "Plains Daily," and Odney is run by an old chum of GOP Gov. John Hoeven. You've been warned!

OH-16: It's been a while since we heard from Dem ex-Rep. John Boccieri, but he just told the Youngstown Vindicator that he hasn't "taken running for Congress off the table." Boccieri is reportedly considering a comeback bid in the redrawn 16th, but could also conceivably run in the new 6th or 7th CDs as well. (Given that fellow Dem ex-Rep. Charlie Wilson has created a new campaign committee in the 6th, that doesn't seem like a likely gambit for Boccieri, though.) In September, Ohio Dem chair Chris Redfern claimed that Boccieri was "very interested" in a potential run, but back in June (before the new map came out), Boccieri said: "I’ve been on the political turnpike for 12 years. It feels good to pull off the turnpike into a rest area for a while.”

UT-04: As expected, state Rep. Stephen Sandstrom has entered the race for Utah's new 4th District. (Sandstrom started expressing interest in the contest last month, after GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz declined to run for Senate, meaning his 3rd CD seat would not come open.) He joins fellow state Rep. Carl Wimmer in seeking the Republican nomination—and, apparently, Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love, who has been considering a congressional run since at least August. She just filed paperwork to create a campaign committee with the FEC.

Grab Bag:

Primary Calendar: We've made a bunch of updates to our sortable primary calendar. There's now a list of GOP presidential primary dates (seeing as Republicans have finally figured out their schedule), and we also added congressional filing deadlines, courtesy of the FEC. Definitely bookmark this.

Voter Suppression: Even though a voter ID bill died in the legislature earlier this year, and even though voters soundly rebuked an attempt to eliminate same-day voter registration at the ballot box last week, Maine Republicans are going to try to revive that old voter ID bill in their next legislative session. Unfortunately, such legislation always polls well, so if the GOP can overcome whatever hurdles derailed them last time, I wouldn't be optimistic about the chances for a people's veto of this legislation.

Redistricting Roundup:

OH Redistricting: We haven't seen a copy of the plan yet (though we're hunting one down), but according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Democrats have put forth a redistricting proposal of their own in their ongoing negotiations with the GOP—and they sound somewhat positive about reaching an agreement:

In the meantime, Democrats have counter-offered with what they call a "6-4-6 plan" that draws six solid GOP seats, four Democratic seats and six GOP-leaning, but competitive districts.

"We'd like to have it even, but we feel like the 6-4-6 map is fair in terms of creating more competitive districts," said House Minority Leader Armond Budish. The Beachwood Democrat said he was hopeful a deal could still be reached.

"I think I've had positive discussions with Representative Huffman," he said. "The conversations have been good, but we are still not there yet."

The main difference between the second GOP map and the Democratic offer: The Democratic plan draws more Democratic voters into the districts of Republican Congressmen Jim Renacci of Wadsworth, Steve Stivers of Columbus and Steve Chabot of Cincinnati, making all three face more competitive races.

If there is no deal, state House Speaker William Batchelder says he'd still rather go with the revised map that Republicans recently introduced to try to sway black lawmakers, rather than the plan they originally passed in September. That would be a boon to Democrats, who would benefit from a restarted clock for gathering signatures to put the map on the ballot for a voter referendum.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Quinnipiac N.J. poll (9+ / 0-)

    Christie at 56-38 approval/disapproval.  Obama at 48/48.  Obama leads all Republicans in head to head matchups, from 9 against Romney to 23 against Perry.

    “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

    by Paleo on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 05:22:22 AM PST

    •  48/48. (6+ / 0-)

      Coulda been worse, I'm happy with that.

      Yami Yugi: Wait a minute! Did you just summon a bunch of monsters in one turn? Seto Kaiba: Yeah. So? Yami: That's against the rules, isn't it? Kaiba: Screw the rules, I have money! — Episode 1, Yu-Gi-Oh! The Abridged Series

      by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 05:23:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't understand the Christie appeal... (11+ / 0-)

        WTF do New Jersians see in that asshole?


        by LordMike on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 05:32:57 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  there's so much to him. (10+ / 0-)

          What we call god is merely a living creature with superior technology & understanding. If their fragile egos demand prayer, they lose that superiority.

          by agnostic on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 05:36:26 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Jesus, who knows. (4+ / 0-)

          I think part of it has to do with the Republican equivalent of ancestrally Dem areas down south, a lot of these New England states used to be Republican strongholds, and most seem positively eager to jump in bed with Republican Gov. as long as they seem "moderate". I mean the current Dem governor of Vermont only won by 2%, and there was no incompetent campaigning going on there. Fortunately it seems to be wearing off (finally).

          Yami Yugi: Wait a minute! Did you just summon a bunch of monsters in one turn? Seto Kaiba: Yeah. So? Yami: That's against the rules, isn't it? Kaiba: Screw the rules, I have money! — Episode 1, Yu-Gi-Oh! The Abridged Series

          by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 05:39:47 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Appeal (5+ / 0-)

          Coming off the presidential talk, and all the face time he got with Hurricaine Irene and the October winter storm, he's polling 10 to 15 points higher than he was during the pen/ben fight in the spring.  I think it will come down in the months ahead.

          “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

          by Paleo on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 05:40:39 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  It's pretty hard to be in New Jersey and (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          not see his ass.

          TEABAGGER: Totally Enraged About Blacks And Gays Getting Equal Rights

          by yg17 on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 09:03:06 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Jersey is like the lite beer commercial. You know (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY

          the less filling but tastes great commercial.  The spoiled, capricious, the "what the fuck are you lookin' at" Jersey electorate wants the less filling (lower state taxes) but tastes great (a full range of government services delivered immediately) which as any beer drinker knows, is an impossibility.  If you want local control of your school systems (with an astounding number of school systems that have only one school in them, and 566 municipalities in the fourth smallest state in the nation (providing an average municipality size of 15 square miles), there are going to be costs.  Now that Christie has talked tough to the teachers and reduced their pensions, a certain element in the state thinks that is a great thing.  It costs money to have one of the finest school systems in the nation since it costs big bucks to live in NJ so you have to pay teachers appropriately.  Christie will join that long line of Republican Governors who people like when they are in office, but then have to pay the bill to repair the damage they have created while governing that only becomes apparent after they have left.  
          Couple that with the fact that there is no real television dedicated to NJ and that the two major media outlets that blanket the state are from NYC and Philly so Jersey people see more political coverage about Bloomberg and Mayor Nutter than they do about their own elected officials.  The only real statewide coverage is from a FM radio station, Jersey 101.5, which while not strictly right wing radio, is a lowest common denominator talk radio station with a conservative, know-nothing bent that always seems to support Republicans, but you have to listen to them to find out about Jersey traffic.  It is miserable having to listen to them to see if the highways are clear, but there is no other real option.

          And it feels like I'm livin'in the wasteland of the free ~ Iris DeMent, 1996

          by MrJersey on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 09:26:43 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  As a former NJ Republican (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY

          I believe that unlike govs of both parties for a generation he's done things to address the state's problems -- they may not be the RIGHT things, but I believe non-Dems are giving him credit for trying.

    •  Those Perry numbers... (7+ / 0-)

      Are really ugly for him. One of the reasons people always site for Obama overperforming his job approval numbers is his good favorability ratings. Well, according to this poll, Obama is viewed unfavorably in two of the five regions of New Jersey (the Exurbs - 44-51, and the Shore - 38-58%), yet still leads Perry in both of those regions (49-35% and 44-38%, respectively). If Perry not only can't win swing voters who view the president's handling of his job negatively or view the president himself negatively, what kind of path to 270 does he have?

      Is neither cool, nor named Ben. MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College), Male, 20. -7.25, -0.26.

      by koolbens on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 06:30:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Christie (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

      Surprised to see his numbers that high. Wasn't he in the mid-high 40s in most recent polls?

      SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 08:17:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Steny makes it easy (5+ / 0-)

    Whomever he supports, I go with one of the others.

    “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

    by Paleo on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 05:23:54 AM PST

  •  OH Dem 6-4-6 map (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    I'm very interested to see what the lines would look like.  They say the 6 "swing" seats are GOP leaning, but it wouldn't take much to give Chabot or Renacci even PVI districts.  Stivers I think would be somewhat more difficult, and that has me wondering what they consider to be a "lean GOP seat.  Is it R+2, R+3, R+4?

  •  Romney ahead of Obama by 10 in NH (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

    by Paleo on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 05:55:21 AM PST

  •  David, thanks for all your super Election digests (4+ / 0-)

    Republicans have the 1% vote locked up.

    by MartyM on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 06:37:03 AM PST

  •  I don't think Gabby Giffords will be able to (9+ / 0-)

    run for re-election. Her powers of speech haven't recovered. She can't make sentences.

    I'd like her too, but it's just not gonna happen, unless she gets better, as she's hoping.

    Thanks for nothing, Jared Loughner, you psycho.

    Lea: "You're not going to fly into an asteroid field, are you?" Han Solo: "They'd be crazy to follow us, wouldn't they?"

    by Kimball Cross on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 06:42:21 AM PST

  •  The camera angle changes in the Walker (8+ / 0-)

    ad were disconcerting.

    And for Scott Walker to appropriate the word "progress" would be like Rick Perry trying to claim "eloquence".

    In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

    by blue aardvark on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 06:43:00 AM PST

  •  Can we PLEASE get Virginia Foxx outta there???? (8+ / 0-)

    This lady ranks up there with the craziest representative ever to serve in the U.S. House.

    Just some examples:  Dishonoring the memory of Mathew Sheppard.   Repubs passed civil rights laws in '60's all by themselves.  Health Care Law bigger threat to America than terrorism.

    North Carolina, we know you are sometimes all about republicans...especially in the mountains.  But, c'mon, folks.  Put down that hooch and get some reasoning, will ya?

    - If you don't like gay marriage, blame straight people. They're the ones who keep having gay babies.

    by r2did2 on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 06:43:54 AM PST

  •  What is it about Josh Mandel that (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    anastasia p

    sends me through the roof?

    I don't want this two-faced, ethically challenged, incompetent dweeb anywhere near my government.

    'You want a job, don't you?' - Herman "Koch" Cain, "The Audacity of Grope"

    by thenekkidtruth on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 06:45:10 AM PST

  •  The Walker ad (4+ / 0-)

    ...reminds me of Ohio governor John Kasich's ad buys leading up to the repeal of SB5:

    Maybe it's the same outfit (ALEC) scripting these things.

    It was hard for me to believe that his gosh-gee-willikers delivery would resonate with very many people & indeed his approval is still around 35%. May Walker fare similarly.

    •  Presuming midwesterns will buy into a tooting your (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jmknapp, Setsuna Mudo

      own horn sort of one-sided ad is likely to be a bad bet.  Walker's little blonde cutie Waukesha School Board member looks and sounds like a high school cheerleader.  

      I almost hope this ad runs all over the state 24 hours a day.  The more you see it, the more it will inspire real questioning--like, is that the best endorsement Walker could scrounge up?  Doesn't he pay any attention to the pain and harm done?  Most districts have had lay offs, cutting teachers in art, music, literature, honors classes, AP classes, even special education teachers, and the economic hits of reduced teacher payroll and state aid are quite noticeable.  Those with kids in our schools know it's hurting us.  Even if we eventually get this all reversed, we'll have had several years of kids not getting the education they need and deserve, and kids unable to get into the sort of colleges their older siblings did due to lack of college prep classes.

      When life gives you wingnuts, make wingnut butter!

      by antirove on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 07:06:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  A new poll has 58% of Wisconsinites wanting to (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jmknapp, Setsuna Mudo, pademocrat, askew

      recall Gov. Walker.
      this link tells where the ad will be played,notice it will not be played in the Milwaukee area, which would include Waukesha County, where there will a closing of a small neighborhood elementary school at the end of the school year. Now kids at other elementary schools will be split up as well. This is one of the wealthiest areas of the state. Is it reform? I wonder how these people, who bought very expensive homes by Wisconsin standards feel about having their neighborhood schools close? Elm Grove, Wisconsin, is the place where this has happened.
      This link tells that Karin was referring to 25 physical school buildings, not the 28 different schools in the district.

  •  Like many (6+ / 0-)

    Like many current Republicans, there is something "freakish" and odd about Scott Walker.  

    No great surprise since the Republican purge has been alive for nearly 30 years and is nearly complete.  The Republicans finally got the whackos they deserve.  

    Dedicated to the GOP debates: When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. Hunter Thompson

    by NyteByrd1954 on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 06:50:03 AM PST

  •  Yep, that Scotty ad (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GMFORD, Setsuna Mudo, TofG, MichaelNY

    is pretty strange. He went right for the cliche " days are ahead of us."  

    Pretty clever to have a school board member make the pitch for his education dismantlement programs. You can cherry pick the republicans off any school board to say anything you want, they certainly aren't union members or teachers.

  •  NC-5, NC-10 (6+ / 0-)

    Good to see challengers coming forward. We need a 50-State Strategy. Give voters everywhere an alternative  to the mean and crazy being offered up by the other side.

    "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by bear83 on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 06:52:05 AM PST

  •  So happy I'm able to vote against Patrick McHenry. (5+ / 0-)

    Though it's hard to image much that could happen in his district that won't lead to another McHenry win.  His district has been one of the hardest hit economically in the country and he spends his time redecorating and worrying about whose face is on the $50 bill.  Such a waste.  But he keeps getting reelected.

  •  Scott Walker's options ... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GMFORD, Setsuna Mudo, LordMike, MichaelNY


    - Break the unions
    - Charge more for health care
    - Pay people less

    It seems like even his paid school board stoolie has trouble saying this (which is why she probably doesn't)

    Thanks, Scott! Glad to see you're working for America!!!

  •  Who paid for this commercial? (0+ / 0-)

    Let me guess.

    A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward.- Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by shoeless on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 07:03:08 AM PST

  •  I Watched The Walker Ad - "Offering Options" And (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pademocrat, TofG

    "working together" my ass!! Everything Walker did was shoved down the public sector workers throats!! In the ad, Walker is pulling another fast one on the voters - trying to make himself sound reasonable. Wisconsin Democrats and the unions need to be out there NOW running ads across the state to counter Walker's BS. Voters memories are notoriously short - we need to keep reminding Wisconsin citizens that Walker and the Republican cabal are NOT reasonable.

  •  DKOS administrators...what's up????? (0+ / 0-)

    Can the administrators PLEASE get the ads out of the comments section here on Kos?  They're not allowing us to either access or read or comment on the first remarks made here.

    I'm sure there's some kind of glitch...please correct that for us.  


    - If you don't like gay marriage, blame straight people. They're the ones who keep having gay babies.

    by r2did2 on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 07:07:24 AM PST

  •  A MNF buy may cost more than a local buy but (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    a MNF buy when the Pack is on is going to guarantee most of the eyeballs in Wisconsin, if they aren't in the can or at the fridge getting another cold one and a brat.

    That is one savvy buy, the question is was it on early in the first half or late in the fourth quarter of a massive Packer blowout of the Vikes?

    "Reason is six-sevenths of treason," said one of his neighbors. "Intelligence is what the enemy uses," said another.

    by Misterpuff on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 07:20:47 AM PST

    •  earlier (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I caught one airing in the first half, early enough that the game was still not totally over.  Of course, the Packers got their first touchdown before their offense even took the field, so some super-casual viewers may have already started tuning out.  I'd think he got a good number of eyeballs with at least the ad that I saw.

  •  Out of the billowing smoke... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    I found this McClatch/Marist poll quite interesting because for the first time, it shows Gingrich doing better against Obama than Romney - and only 2 points behind. Granted Gingrich does have his baggage, but I am wondering if people are overestimating the type of drag a candidate's personal problems will cause during a bad economy election. Certainly Bill Clinton had more personal baggage than George HW Bush.

    I am Zornorph; the one who comes by night to the neighbor's yard.

    by Zornorph on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 07:28:57 AM PST

    •  Gingrich has successfully (4+ / 0-)

      rehabilitated his image.  It wasn't so many months ago that he was not just unpopular nationally, he was quite unpopular even among Republicans.  I think he even exceeded Ron Paul's negative ratings among GOP voters.

      Some time out of the spotlight seems to have fixed his problems with Republicans, and his overall numbers have improved as a result.

      It is quite possible people overestimate the effects of a candidate's personal issues.  The thing is, every candidate basically has personal (non-political) things that can be used against them.  It's just a question of whether the electorate buys into it as a serious issue or not.  Obama had his association with Reverend Wright.  It seemed to fade away by the time of the election.  Bill Clinton had Gennifer Flowers accuse him of carrying on an affair with her during the campaign.  Ultimately did not derail his campaign.  And so, Gingrich's problems may not get a lot of play either.

      However, I think it is clear that the harassment accusations against Cain are taking a toll on his numbers.  They might recover by the start of the primaries, but I just don't think he has time to put them to rest.

      •  With Cain (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, bumiputera, jncca, MichaelNY

        With Cain, it wasn't just the sex charges, it was how badly he handled them that really popped his balloon. Clearly, he is not up to the job and I think voters are just trying to let him down easy. All he ever wanted to do was raise his profile, anyway.

        I am Zornorph; the one who comes by night to the neighbor's yard.

        by Zornorph on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 10:07:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Question: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zornorph, MichaelNY

      How long have you supported Gingrich in the primary?

      'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

      by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 08:52:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Since (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, MichaelNY

        Since T-Paw dropped out. It was him or Romney and I like Gingrich better though Romney is probably more electable.

        I am Zornorph; the one who comes by night to the neighbor's yard.

        by Zornorph on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 10:05:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  My conservative uncle (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zornorph, MichaelNY

          has mentioned liking Gingrich in a couple phone conversations I've had with him after debates. He's not committed to him, but he seems pleasantly surprised. Perhaps that has something to do with Gingrich's debating skills and/or the quality of the competition.

          What's funny is, after Gingrich's Ryan gaffe a few months ago, my uncle said something like: "He's done - I'll never vote for him!"

          •  That gaffe (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, MichaelNY

            I wasn't sold on the Ryan plan in the first place, though I didn't think Gingrich did a good job of articulating what he didn't like about it. I was more put off by how badly he seemed to run his campaign. Since then, however, he's proved that he understood his strengths better that the conventional people he hired to run it. They bolted to Perry and now look as how he is doing in the polls compared to Gingrich.
            Gingrich has a long way to go before he wins the prize, but I always liked his ideas (if not some of his style) and I've been quite impressed recently. We will see if he has learned from his mistakes in the past.

            I am Zornorph; the one who comes by night to the neighbor's yard.

            by Zornorph on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 11:29:40 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Outlier, not valid (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, NMLib

      When Cain was surging, there was a poll showing him, too, within a couple points of Obama and doing better than Romney.  Indeed I think it was CNN, not some fly-by-night outfit.

      These outliers are not valid at all.

      Gingrich is my dream GOP nominee because Obama will win by double digits even with 9% unemployment.  Newt is an unmitigated disaster, all the reasons his favorables were so badly underwater months ago will resurface and matter all over again.  He cannot survive scrutiny.

      Of course, it's because he cannot survive scrutiny that he's highly likely to have his balloon, too, pop well before he can be taken seriously as a prospective nominee.

      He's already under the gun now for lobbying (yes, that's what he did) for Freddie Mac, and of course lying through his teeth about it in a recent debate and then afterward.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 08:57:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good points (0+ / 0-)

        But double digits? I can't imagine! Who's the last president to win by double digits? Reagan in 1984? And Gingrich is a decent debater and a smart guy, so I think he'd convince at least 45+% of voters to vote for him.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 12:15:31 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  He's not a smart guy OR a good debater (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          A guy who says thinks like Obama is shaped by a Kenyan anti-colonial mentality and has a secular socialist agenda is not smart.  The notion that Newt is a great intellectual is a fiction, and frankly I don't think most Americans buy it that he's somehow smarter than others.  Newt creates the illusion of having intellect because he has some superior verbal/visual communication skills:  no "ah" or "um" to fill pauses in thoughts when he speaks, no distracting body language, no nervous ticks, and he has clear and forceful diction.  Those are all great things in and of themselves, but they are not part of intellect.

          The debates, too, are a fiction in regarding Newt's strength.  He's up there now against a bunch of complete clowns, Romney the only serious one.  And Newt and Romney rarely engage--and both made each other look bad in the recent debate where they finally did engage.  Newt won't look nearly as good against Obama.  And there are only 3 Presidential debates, it's likely the election's outcome is a foregone conclusion before the first one starts.

          The reason Presidential elections haven't been big blowouts in recent cycles is that both major parties always have offered credible potential Presidents.  If one party fails to do that, then swing voters all will break one way.  That's what will happen with Newt.  Voters haven't had their patience tested by either party's choice of nominee in a very long time; they'll run out of patience quickly with Newt.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 10:17:03 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  VA state legislature (6+ / 0-)

    We could have another Wisconsin 14 on our hands, eh? I hope so, they need to flee town if precedent isn't respected with another power sharing agreement.

  •  That linked Primary calendar (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    I don't think Utah will be able get away with (starting) their delegate selection as late as June 26th. Moreover, if they use party-run caucuses, you'd think they'd want to go as early as possible for Mormon Mitt.

  •  IL-10 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    I had to scratch my head over the whole Hoyer thing. We don't see Steny around Highland Park or Deerfield, IL too often, or at all, ever. If that's all Schneider has, then I'm thinking that's not going to be enough. Schneider, however, has been a huge fan of Mark Kirk. He's been found on the FEC website as a multiple time donor. He's said that he thinks Kirk is a great moderate. If you agree, then I guess Schneider is your guy. I'm still sort of miffed at Kirk for saying he personally knew there were WMD in Iraq and loyally voting with his party as it moved sharply to the right. I don't see the moderateness in that. I'm holding out to meet Tree and very interested in what he has to say for himself. I've blogged this district for years, so no one wants to take this seat from Dold more than me, except perhaps the candidates themselves, and a couple of the Tenth Dems.

    Using my free speech while I still have it.

    by ebgill on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 08:06:41 AM PST

    •  That's not the point (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      even an endorsement from, say, Julie Hamos probably wouldn't move that many votes, the point is behind-the-scenes support and fundraising.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 09:10:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I was kind of kidding (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits, MichaelNY

        making the point that Steny Hoyer isn't exactly someone whose endorsement would make a big splash here or anywhere. I get the rest and Schneider does need fundraising help as he's gone way down since a surprisingly good first quarter. It seems that he isn't getting much reciprocation from his good buddy Mark Kirk.

        Using my free speech while I still have it.

        by ebgill on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 02:00:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  He donated to Mark Kirk?! (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, bumiputera, jncca, MichaelNY

      Son of a bitch, you're right.  A total of $1800, and in 2007, 2008, and 2009 too!  Those were contested races (well, to the extent that running against Dan Seals counts).  I'll put up with a lot, but that's a little over the line.

      (Unless more than one Bradley S. Schneider of Deerpark, IL worked for Blackman Kallick--it is a little odd that he lists that as his employer when his own firm was founded in 2008.)

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 09:40:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think Hoyer is scared Sheyman will win w/Tree in (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      That Tree and Schneider will split the moderate/conservative Dem vote and that will allow Sheyman to capture the nomination.

      That's all I can figure with them suddenly rallying behind Schneider despite how poor his fundraising is.

      I would like to know more about what happened to lead Lauren Beth Gash to back Tree. I thought she was for Schneider before but maybe that was my mistake.

  •  It's midnight in Wisconsin...muaahhhhh (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    Vampire Rethugs.
    These wingnut Barbie Doll are truly annoying.

  •  Illinois 10 (0+ / 0-)

    If there is anything that shows Democrats have no idea about what OWS represents it is Steny Hoyer's endorsement of Brad Schneider for Illinois 10.  Instead of encouraging Ilya Sheyman - a true grassroots candidate who worked for Move On, Obama and Feingold and who has over 350 real volunteers - Steny is going for an inside guy who gets equal money from democrats and preublicans in his career.  Now is the time for folks like Jan Schakowski to step in and rectify this misplaced endorsement.  If the Democrats don't mean business about moving our country forward - but continue to be a soulless log rolling inside operation - then 2010 was a precursor of more things to come.  Given how sharp our senior Illinois Democratic pols are - I am sure we will see Rahm and Dick Durbin try to put their thumbs on the race and once again lose a chance for a pick up for Democrats by a real Democrat.  One wonders whether Democratic elders like the current stalemate in the country and want to perpetuate it since the stalemate benefits the fatcats (in the short term) and the Democrats can blame the Republicans when called to account by the people.  Don't mean to make a big deal about this one race but I think the stakes are clear when you think about the future relevance and viability of the Democratic party.

    •  Why let it bug you? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo

      Both candidates are good and nobody knows who Hoyer is in IL.

      'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

      by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 08:51:31 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Because Schneider is a corporate democrat (0+ / 0-)

        Below is Schneider's issues list.  Look at it.  He has got the social issues right but on the issue of the moment he is focussed on fiscal rectitude and bribing the business community to pump the economy (tax credits don't work - I am in business) and cutting social security and medicare.   That makes him a Rockefeller Republican, and a worthy successor to John Porter maybe,  but this ain't the 1960s anymore.

        Schneider positions:

        Providing smart tax incentives to create jobs and get our economy growing again
        Championing responsible fiscal policy towards eliminating budget deficits and beginning to pay down our national debt
        Making education work for all kids
        Developing sustainable solutions to protect Social Security and Medicare from the extreme efforts to end or privatize them
        Identifying realistic strategies for affordable and sustainable health care
        Achieving energy independence and energy security
        Promoting environmental stewardship for generations
        Realizing equal rights for all
        Protecting a woman’s right to choose and the right to comprehensive health care
        Enabling medical research, including stem cell, offering new hope for healthy futures
        Ensuring strong national security and smart foreign policy
        Leading the pursuit for real security and peace in the Middle East
        Honoring our troops and serving our veterans
        Enacting intelligent, fair, and just immigration policies
        Progressing toward more efficient, more effective, and more transparent government.

  •  GOP Freshman See Fundraising Fall (6+ / 0-)

    Two-thirds of the House Republican freshmen -- 43 of 65 -- saw their fundraising dip in the past quarter, USA Today reports.

    "In addition, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee took in nearly twice as much campaign cash as House Republicans in September -- a sign Democratic donors are energized, despite low poll rankings for Congress and President Obama."

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 08:56:45 AM PST

    •  The NRCC fails at fundraising (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, TofG, MichaelNY

      They struggled far behind the DCCC in fundraising for most of the 2009-2010 cycle.  I have little doubt that quite a few districts (AZ-8, IA-3, IN-2, & PA-4 come to mind but there are others) that were saved courtesy of the republican house committee not raising enough cash to properly contest such districts

  •  A-G Cooch does his Ben Tribett impression (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    and predicts Colgan will resign next year.  To which Colgan responds by calling BS.

    'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

    by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 08:57:08 AM PST

    •  I still don't get how (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      a supposedly moderate region such as NoVA could elect clowns like Bob Marshall, Barbara Comstock, and this guy.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 09:13:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  A lot of the crazies come from... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        Southern Fairfax or Western PW county, both of which are more Republican and less moderate than the rest of the region (Comstock is a notable exception to this). I'm not a NOVA expert or anything, but I've always gotten the sense that Republicans in these areas are much more conservative than Republicans in the rest of the region.

        25, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 10:06:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Odd-year elections are a big factor (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        The turnout model for our state and local stuff is just a lot worse for us than in federal cycles, 2010 an exception.  Our people are people of color and young whites......try convincing these people to show up for state legislative races, they just don't care.

        Of course even my personal GOTV efforts with friends were only partly successful.  I got one of my best friends and his wife, both in McLean like me, to vote, but another couple in Arlington who are close friends and who I called personally, both on their cells, didn't show......and this even though the husband is a big political junkie and strong Democrat, and I figured a call the weekend before the election was enough.  And he's a white male.

        Very tough to convince Democrats to vote, much tougher than Republicans.

        That was the one meta-flaw in our redistricting, that we relied on Obama and other related numbers that didn't provide a good baseline for off-off-year cycles like 2011.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 09:02:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I wish the Gabby Giffords video (5+ / 0-)

    clip could be a stand alone post. I couldn't help but tear up at the bravery, and obvious love, of two exceptional people. Bravo!

    I think, therefore I am. I think.

    by mcmom on Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 10:21:01 AM PST

  •  I love this woman Gabby Giffords (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, askew, MichaelNY

    By all the heavens in all the dreams of all the saints, I love this woman.

    I wish you Gabby Giffords, all the love you are shown each day in the eyes of your wonderful husband. That respect, that admiration, that understanding of your courage and strength is coming from me too, from us.

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