This will be the first of two diaries I have planned on redistricting Virginia if it were to (totally improbably) return to a previous state (no pun intended). This diary focuses on the way Virginia looked very early in the United States' history, starting with Virginia's admission as the country's 10th state. At the time, Virginia was a political powerhouse, with major decisions as to the country's direction often hinging on the temperament of Virginian voters and the vicissitudes of its politicians. Clearly, a lot has changed.
In the scenario posited by this diary, Virginia split into constituent parts and history kept going along as usual, but tomorrow, the state suddenly reconstituted itself into its old form. I haven't taken into account any hypotheticals about how the state would have developed if X hadn't happened, or if Y had occurred instead of Z, etc. This is tricky enough as it is!
This modern representation of the Commonwealth of Virginia immediately after admission to the Union (1788-1792) swells to 20 congressional districts, combining the totals of modern-day Virginia (11 districts), West Virginia (3 districts), and Kentucky (6 districts). It resembles something of a Super-Virginia, retaining the same basic shape but more than doubling in size, from 42,774 square miles to a whopping 107,413 square miles—which would make it the country's eighth-largest state by area.
I don't have thumbnails for all of these districts, because quite frankly there's not much detail to show for some of them. But I have closeups of all the more interesting county and city splits, which I've endeavored to avoid in keeping with West Virginian tradition.
VA-01 (blue): Reps. Scott Rigell (R) and Randy Forbes (R)
Then-Sen. Barack Obama lost this district by about three points in 2008, but white Blue Dog Democrats generally outperformed him in parts of the South, and this district is entirely within range for a credible conserva-Dem, especially considering that it was held down by one until the Republican wave of last year. Rigell is unpopular with the Republican base due to some past apostasies (he donated to Forbes's special election opponent, Louise Lucas, in 2001), and Forbes is entrenched in his district but might be vulnerable in swingy Virginia Beach considering that he's a far-right Christian theocrat who has proposed legislation to make the U.S. "a Judeo-Christian nation" and outright abolish separation of church and state. Lean Republican.
VA-02 (green): Rep. Bobby Scott (D)
This district is 45.1% black, so of course it's a solid seat for Scott. It sprawls little outside the four Hampton Roads cities of Norfolk, Newport News, Hampton, and Portsmouth, meaning it ends up functioning as a bit of a Democratic vote sink despite the fact that if this state were federated today and its three governments merged, Democrats would control the process. But them's the breaks, since there's a VRA to maintain. Safe Democratic.
VA-03 (purple): OPEN
These minority-majority districts aren't going to be a regular occurrence. In fact, this is the second and last one in the expanded commonwealth. It's 45.3% white and expands from southeastern Virginia into Richmond, the state capital. No incumbent lives here, but a Democrat should win here, and black Democrats are likely to dominate the nomination process. Safe Democratic.
VA-04 (red): Reps. Eric Cantor (R) and Rob Wittman (R)
Both of Cantor's residences are in this district, I believe, with both Culpeper and the northern Richmond suburbs in Henrico County included here. Wittman also lives here. Unfortunately, Cantor would be the overwhelming favorite in any primary between the two (which is probably unlikely if Wittman ever wants to hold office as a Republican again), and he would romp to reelection in this overwhelmingly Republican seat. Safe Republican.
VA-05 (yellow): OPEN
Another seat where no incumbent appears to live. If Cantor is feeling particularly gracious, or if he happens to have a place in this district already, he could run here. However, the district is less Republican than VA-04, and it has a Democratic base in Charlottesville that isn't nearly significant enough to dominate the district's politics, but would certainly be enthused at the chance to upset the House majority leader. Likely Republican.
VA-06 (sienna): Rep. Robert Hurt (R)
Hurt, best known for holding off a late surge by then-Rep. Tom Perriello last year to sweep to victory in a red wave, is now in no danger of losing his seat to the seesaw nature of modern American electoral politics. Sen. John McCain won this district in 2008 by close to a 20-point margin; Hurt ain't going anywhere. Safe Republican.
VA-07 (magenta): OPEN
No one lives here, either! This is also the first district that includes parts of present-day Kentucky and West Virginia. It spans the Appalachian Mountains in the south-central part of this reconstituted commonwealth. While this area is ancestrally Democratic and includes some bona fide coal counties, the Democratic Party of Virginia's infrastructure here collapsed long ago, as did the Kentucky Democratic Party's, and with just two counties contributed from southern West Virginia (which swung hard for Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin this year and kept moderate Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall in office even last year), I don't see the Democrats being able to cope with the Republican PVI of this district (which approaches R+20). Although no one lives here, Republican Rep. Morgan Griffith of Salem may opt to run here. Safe Republican.
VA-08 (cyan): Rep. Hal Rogers (R)
And now we're deep into the western part of this expanded version of Virginia. Rogers is a corrupt, pork-barreling septuagenarian who would be utterly invincible in this district. Voters here are deeply conservative, there are no major cities, and in fact this district serves as a vote sink to help shore up Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler. Safe Republican.
VA-09 (lime): Reps. Ed Whitfield (R) and Brett Guthrie (R)
This district is ancestrally Democratic, but it didn't give Bruce Lunsford or Atty. Gen. Jack Conway a whole lot of love in their unsuccessful Senate bids in 2008 and 2010 respectively. The real action here would be in the primary. Whitfield is a relative moderate who was one of just three Republicans to vote for the Ledbetter Act during the 111th Congress. Guthrie is a fundamentalist back-bencher who has made no waves at all. A messy primary could provide a narrow opening for a Democrat with strength in Bowling Green (Guthrie snuck by with just a five-point margin against David Boswell in 2008, though he expanded that to a 39-point margin last year against the underfunded Ed Marksberry), but this is a pretty conservative district, and either Republican would be favored. Likely Republican.
VA-10 (powder blue): OPEN
This snaking district soaks up conservative suburbs and exurbs of both Louisville and Lexington, and even a few from the Cincinnati area as well. As such, it's red as, and although no incumbent lives here, one lucky Republican could sure change that in a jiffy. Safe Republican.
VA-11 (chartreuse): Rep. John Yarmuth (D)
Hey, Democrats do exist! This compact district could probably spread out a bit more, but Jefferson County (KY) is already too big for a single congressional district, and it's not really the Kentucky way to unnecessarily split counties. Yarmuth would be quite happy here, as he is popular in Louisville, which anchors this seat. Louisville, and indeed Jefferson County as a whole, has been trending our way quite significantly over the past decade or so, and Yarmuth bludgeoned last year's Republican nominee Todd Lally by an 11-point margin despite the Republican wave. Expect the Democratic PVI of this district to go up pretty rapidly over the next few years. Safe Democratic.
VA-12 (olive): Rep. Ben Chandler (D)
Two in a row, fools! Chandler, who clung on by his nails last year, gets shored up here, dropping Republican-friendly Jessamine County, picking up Franklin County, and expanding east into some serious coal country, including counties that love Democrats so much they forgot rural Appalachians were supposed to be racist and voted for Obama in 2008. This district still has a Republican PVI, but realistically, it's going to elect a conservative Democrat to represent it. That's just kind of how the coal country works. And as Fayette County grows and trends blue, this district will actually become more liberal. Likely Democratic.
VA-13 (salmon): Rep. Geoff Davis (R)
This first of two "remainders" districts is based in strongly Republican exurban Cincinnati. It would have as its incumbent Geoff Davis of Hebron, where the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Airport is located. I'm not sure what else, if anything, is in Hebron. Maybe Davis lives in the airport. Anyway, this district also grabs a bit of territory from what is now southwestern West Virginia. It's really Republican. Not much else to add. Safe Republican.
VA-14 (slate blue): Reps. Nick Rahall (D) and David McKinley (R)
And this is the second "remainders" district, swooping down from the Northern Panhandle where McKinley lives to the coal country where Rahall lives, wrapping halfway around populous Kanawha County on its way. The schizoid split between voting for West Virginia Democrats and national Republicans that much of West Virginia exhibits means it's tough to predict how this district would swing, but it seems to me there's enough territory that kept Rahall in office last year and continued to reelect then-Rep. Alan Mollohan for years before then that Rahall would be a narrow favorite here. Lean Democratic.
VA-15 (teal): Reps. Morgan Griffith (R), Bob Goodlatte (R), and Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Yeah, suck it, Republicans. I've managed to draw three incumbent Republicans into a district that would be a challenge for any of them to hold. Capito's entrenchment in West Virginia politics would be at least partially negated by the fact that more than half of this district's voters are from what is presently Virginia. Griffith, as before mentioned, might just decide to run in VA-07. Goodlatte is probably the likely nominee, but he's not used to running competitive races, and with both his hometown of Roanoke and Capito's hometown of Charleston, both cities that still tend to vote Democratic on the state, federal, and presidential level, in this district, he could be beaten by a populist Blue Dog-type. Tossup/Tilt Republican.
VA-16 (orange): OPEN
No one lives here. It's probably too far away for Goodlatte to run here; it's too removed from Cantor's preferred turf to be likely to attract him. Bill Maloney, the West Virginia Republican Party's 2011 gubernatorial nominee, lives in Morgantown and could make a good go of it here; the "favorite son" effect allowed him to overperform in usually-Democratic Monongalia County this year, and even eastern West Virginia as a whole, which is obviously a huge boon for Republicans here. They might try to recruit Maloney for a district like this, and he'd probably be a good fit. Safe Republican.
VA-17 (blue-violet): OPEN
This is a head-scratcher to figure out. Obama did very well in the Eastern Panhandle, parts or all of which are increasingly considered to be in the D.C. suburbs; if West Virginia and Virginia merged back into a single state, they'd probably be considered part of outer NoVa. However, the Eastern Panhandle swung hard against Tomblin this year, and only Jefferson County (WV) voted for then-Gov. Joe Manchin in his Senate bid last year even as Manchin won by 10 points statewide. It might just be a matter of media-market bleed-over from Virginia. Maybe folks here just like it when someone bothers to run ads in their part of the state, as Obama and Maloney did. It's tough to figure, but most of this area usually favors Republicans. A Democrat could win here, though. Likely Republican.
VA-18 (yellow-green): OPEN
This is a more Democrat-friendly NoVa collar district. Obama just slightly underperformed his national numbers here, making it a pretty clear fair fight, though it's trending in the Democrats' directions. Republican Rep. Frank Wolf doesn't live here, but it's probably reasonable to assume that he would run here. I might even say this one leans Democratic, but the DPVA is utterly incompetent. Hey, maybe under this expanded commonwealth, Manchin and Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear could whip it into shape! Tossup/Tilt Democratic.
VA-19 (spring green): Rep. Jim Moran (D)
Moran's district is anchored in the innermost D.C. suburbs, sometimes even considered sister cities, of Arlington and Alexandria. It snakes as far south as Aquia in Stafford County, but the precincts it picks up both in Stafford County and along the way are pretty Democratic, keeping this district the safest non-VRA seat for Team Blue in the commonwealth. Safe Democratic.
VA-20 (maroon): Reps. Gerry Connolly (D) and Frank Wolf (R)
Wolf would probably bail on this district, which is strengthened for Connolly after his near miss last year. It stays north of the Prince William County line, unlike the current district, which pushes it bluer. Connolly would be pretty comfortable here, though a particularly bad fumble might place it within range for a Republican in a bad year for us. Likely Democratic.
This map looks to come out to a 6-10-4. As there are currently six Democratic representatives and fourteen Republicans from these three states, this map somewhat expands the playing field for Democrats, giving them a legitimate shot at representing a couple of areas they currently don't have much of a chance at taking over. Presented with red for expected Republican districts, blue for expected Democratic districts, and light yellow for expected competitive districts, this 1788-style commonwealth looks like this:
For the curious, I've also tabulated two-party vote in every presidential election since 1992 for the combined state. Hint: it doesn't look great for Obama.
|
Dem Vote |
Dem % |
GOP Vote |
GOP % |
1992 |
2,034,755 |
50.31% |
2,009,669 |
49.69% |
1996 |
2,055,486 |
50.74% |
1,995,579 |
49.26% |
2000 |
2,151,685 |
44.84% |
2,646,457 |
55.16% |
2004 |
2,494,016 |
43.72% |
3,210,176 |
56.28% |
2008 |
3,015,374 |
48.74% |
3,170,933 |
51.26% |
Later this week, I'll have a diary up on the second incarnation of statehood-era Virginia, taking a look at what would happen if it returned to the form it had in the antebellum period.
Thoughts, either on the concept or the map?