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Leading Off:

AZ Redistricting: Hot damn! Late yesterday, Arizona's Supreme Court overturned GOP Gov. Jan Brewer's ouster of Colleen Mathis from the independent redistricting commission! (If you're new to this story, click here for the complete background.) This is a massively humiliating turn of events for Brewer—and an awesome win for the rule of law. It's also good news for Democrats (read on).

So what happens next? Well, simply put, the commission can get back to work. It published draft congressional and legislative maps last month, and since then, the commissioners have been hearing public feedback and have indicated that they plan to make changes to the maps in response. Once the revised maps are issued, they can then be finalized and put in place for next year's elections.

The congressional map in particular creates a very level playing field that is both fair and an improvement for Democrats from the existing district lines; assuming the restored commission doesn't alter things radically, that means a more competitive election environment for Team Blue in 2012. And while I wouldn't rule anything out, I just don't see how Brewer and her cronies can interfere any further at this point, short of impeaching the entire Supreme Court and then impeaching Mathis again (as andgarden darkly speculates).

Game, set, map.


AZ-Sen: Businessman Wil Cardon formally launched his bid for the GOP nomination on Tuesday, but one thing Roll Call's brief writeup told me that I hadn't previously realized is that Cardon loaned his campaign over $800K in the third quarter. Reid Wilson tweeted a month ago that the wealthy Cardon hadn't "given his own money yet," but I guess that didn't include loans. Anyhow, this is interesting because Cardon started off in August by saying he'd self-fund, then sort of backed away from that pledge a few weeks later. But I guess he realized he needed a shot in the arm if he's to have a chance of beating Rep. Jeff Flake in the Republican primary.

FL-Sen: I'm gonna miss having an excuse to link to pics of Sofia Vergara, but whatcha gonna do? The Modern Family actress's boyfriend, Nick Loeb, says he won't run in the Republican primary for Senate, after considering the race since January. Loeb doesn't have much of a track record himself, but he comes from a politically pedigreed family and may run for state Senate instead.

Meanwhile, Republican pollster Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research finds Dem Sen. Bill Nelson leading GOP Rep. Connie Mack by 45-39 in a new poll; that's wider margin than the two-point gap Quinnipiac saw last week. As for why this poll was undertaken, Ryan Steusloff of WPA informs me via email: "We did them on our own behalf. We added the questions on to a survey we had in the field for another client."

MA-Sen: The Hotline says Elizabeth Warren is spending some real scrilla on her inaugural ad buy: $465,000, mostly in Boston and a little bit in Springfield. That compares with $238K for the Crossroads spot; the group initially claimed they were shelling out $600K but never contradicted Hotline's report of the much smaller amount.

MI-Sen: Republican Clark Durant has been getting a ton of crap for his remarks last week that the wealth gap in this country "should be wider." Now he's predictably dancing away from those comments, with some ridiculous claims that he was misinterpreted. Good luck with that.


CA-25: This is unexpected. Everyone's been expecting GOP Rep. Elton Gallegly to either run in the redrawn 26th CD or hang up his spurs once and for all. But now another veteran Republican congressman, Buck McKeon, says he thinks Gallegly plans to challenge him in the new 25th, which is actually where Gallegly's home now is. But for his part, Gallegly isn't saying anything more than "stay tuned."

MD-04: Rep. Donna Edwards is touting a new internal poll from Lake Research showing her with a big lead in the Democratic primary. She takes 52% to 16% for former Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey and just 3% for Anne Arundel County Councilman Jamie Benoit. Ivey says he has his own poll in the field, so we'll see if he releases that any time soon. The primary is on April 3.

ND-AL: Republican Shane Goettle just resigned as state director for Sen. John Hoeven and says he plans to explore a bid for the state's open at-large House seat. If he gets in (and it sounds like he will—why quit your job first?), he'd be the fourth candidate to enter the GOP primary.

NY-24: Hmm. In a piece on various possible House retirements, Reid Wilson very briefly mentions that freshman GOP Rep. Richard Hanna could conceivably not seek another term due to health problems, especially if he's drawn into a district with Dem Bill Owens. Darth Jeff reminds us that in February, Hanna, age 60, had surgery to repair a heart valve, though a spokesman at the time said he was expected to make a complete recovery. However, his staff declined to release any details about the operation, including whether it was an open-heart procedure.

FL-02: This panhandle district, occupied by Blue Dog Allen Boyd for many years until he got crushed in 2010's red storm, doesn't seem like the kind of place that's particularly welcoming to Democrats anymore, but that isn't stopping a whole boatload from lining up to challenge GOP freshman Steve Southerland. The latest is state Rep. Leonard Bembry, who joins Bay County Democratic Party chair Alvin Peters and activist Jay Liles in the race. What's more, former state Sen. Al Lawton, who very nearly beat Boyd in last year's primary, also says he is "likely" (in the article's words) to run again. And to make things even more complicated, former Republican state Sen. Nancy Argenziano is running as an independent; she had wanted to run as a Democrat, but state law precluded her from doing so.

PA-04 (?): GOP state Rep. Jim Christiana said in September that he'd wait until after redistricting to decide whether to take on Dem Rep. Jason Altmire. I suppose he's still in something of a holding pattern, since he just announced the creation of an exploratory committee but hasn't fully committed to a run yet.

TN-04: Democratic state Sen. Eric Stewart says he'll take on GOP freshman Scott DesJarlais next year—and on paper at least, you always have to figure that a sitting state senator is a pretty good get. Regardless of what happens in redistricting, though, this is likely to remain a very tough seat for Team Blue, though DesJarlais may not wind up being the Republican nominee. State Sen. Bill Ketron, who is a big macher on the redistricting committee, has every intention of moving his home base of Rutherford County into the 4th so that he can stage what will be a serious challenge to DesJarlais in the GOP primary. Ketron would make a formidable opponent in the general, but Stewart can at least root for a clearance sale on cat fud.

Other Races:

CA-Pres: PPP has some California presidential numbers out, and they have Barack Obama beating Mitt Romney by a 57-36 spread (all the other gaps are even larger). This compares to a SurveyUSA poll from last week which had Obama up just 11 on Romney (50-39). Given that Obama won the state by 24 points in 2008, that would represent a 13-point swing southward if SUSA's numbers are accurate, a swing that I don't think we've seen in other states or other polls.

VA-LG, VA-11: The Washington Post has a lengthy piece looking at ton of possible successors to GOP Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, who long ago made clear that he'd run for governor in 2013. The LG job has taken on increased importance since, as you know, the Virginia state Senate is now evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, and the Lt. Gov. gets to break ties. One potential Republican name stands out in the piece: businessman Keith Fimian, who lost back-to-back races against Gerry Connolly in the 11th CD in 2008 and 2010. Right after the election, Fimian sounded like he wanted to try once more, but perhaps he now realizes that if he couldn't beat Connolly last year, it's probably never going to happen.

Grab Bag:

Polltopia: Public Policy polling has a pretty funny post out with numbers on the most favorably-viewed person in America. We often talk about "Republican Jesus," but it turns out that regular Jesus is actually only the second-most popular person in the country. (However, among Republicans, Jesus clocks in with a 96-0 favorability rating. Not bad!) Click the link to find out who's number 1… the answer certainly surprised me (in a good way)!

PPP (PDF): Speaking of our friends at PPP, they're hiring! Specifically, they are looking for an issue polling specialist. Click the link for the job posting.

Voting: All of a sudden, it seems that nobody likes ranked-choice voting anymore. The system, used in California's Bay Area cities of San Francisco, Oakland, Berkeley, and San Leandro, is apparently on the outs with a lot of politicos and activists, and it sees that there's a decent chance San Fran will repeal the system, possibly via the ballot box, next year. It's not entirely clear what the grumbling is about, though: Some people are unhappy that ranked-choice voting didn't lead to all sorts of imagined high-minded outcomes (no more negative campaigning! no more special interest money!), while others simply complain that the method is too complicated. But I have a feeling that former Common Cause official Charles Marsteller gets at the real reason:

"It's hard to estimate outcomes with ranked-choice voting," Marsteller said. "You don't know if the polls are right. The political consultants don't like it."

Redistricting Roundup:

MA Redistricting: Democratic lawmakers in the Mass. state Senate overcame a temporary procedural blocking maneuver by own of their own to pass the state's new redistricting map on Wednesday, without any amendments to the version previously okayed by the House. The legislation now goes to Dem Gov. Deval Patrick for his signature.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  HI-Sen: What a beautiful picture... (4+ / 0-)


    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 05:06:26 AM PST

  •  MA-Sen, WI-Sen, WA-Sen: (9+ / 0-)

    Elizabeth Warren is co hosting a fundraiser with Tammy Baldwin in Philly for their Massachusetts Wisconsin Victory Fund. After that Warren will co-host a fundraiser with Maria Cantwell in Seattle.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 05:10:47 AM PST

    •  7 blocks from my house (12+ / 0-)

      And I wasn't invited?  I will be starting an Occupy the Bellevue movement immediately.

    •  When is Warren going to list campaign events? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I've been waiting for two months now for a chance to see her that doesn't require me to volunteer time and money I do not have.  

      I'm also still waiting for Warren to give any indication of her positions on something other than financial issues.  Those are important, but it sure would be nice to know what she's planning to do for the area outside 495, or her positions on civil liberties and women's issues.

      Bueller?  Bueller?

      •  I def. agree that Warren, Baldwin, Heinrich (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Ellid, TofG, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

        And whoever else doesn't have much of an issues page up (I'm pretty sure those three don't; could be wrong) should fix that.  No great electoral consequences either way, but imo it'd be a gesture of respect to activists.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 08:03:59 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  WORD (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          At least Baldwin has her record to run on.  Warren has a handful of TV appearances and Youtube clips.  It's not enough to convince me that she'll beat Brown, especially since she's already skipped one candidates' meet and greet to attend a fundraiser in a rich Boston suburb.

          Seriouisly.  If people really want her to win, Warren needs to get out and meet people who aren't already planning to work for her campaign.  So far she hasn't, and after talking to a couple of bright, well educated, very middle class friends last weekend, I can tell you that she's not doing herself any favors by preaching to the choir right now.

          •  She's already got the money to win (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TofG, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

            Brown has a ton, but it's not gonna help him.

            -8.88, -4.21 Why does the most beautiful place in the world (Idaho Panhandle) have to get dumped with thousands of Cali GOP doofuses?

            by Whitty on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 09:44:32 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  But does she have the votes? (0+ / 0-)

              All the money in the world is worthless if Warren can't woo independents.  

              •  I'm pretty sure she's basically already (5+ / 0-)

                got them, and she doesn't have to win many indies as long as she can unify Catholics behind her.

                -8.88, -4.21 Why does the most beautiful place in the world (Idaho Panhandle) have to get dumped with thousands of Cali GOP doofuses?

                by Whitty on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 10:38:19 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  "Independents?" (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Xenocrypt, TofG

                You do realize she's running in Massachusetts, right? "Independents" are a myth created by the media, she can lose "independents" (which she won't) and still swap Brown. And I wonder about the aggressive hostility of your comments about one of our top recruits this cycle.

                Yami Yugi: Wait a minute! Did you just summon a bunch of monsters in one turn? Seto Kaiba: Yeah. So? Yami: That's against the rules, isn't it? Kaiba: Screw the rules, I have money! — Episode 1, Yu-Gi-Oh! The Abridged Series

                by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 10:44:52 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Agreed about the independents part, but (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Setsuna Mudo, Ellid, MichaelNY

                  Activists or people with strong issue preferences might legitimately want Warren to take clearer stands on some of them, even if not doing so won't hurt her electoral chances.  (Gosh, that's an awkward, awkward sentence, but you get what I mean.)

                  26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

                  by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 10:46:40 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Yes, I understand and I agree. (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:

                    I wasn't trying to disagree with that part, I agree she should have a more complete issues page. I see a lot of politicians (ones running for high office like Warren!) who don't bother to put up real issues pages until January, it really sucks. I just disagreed with pretty much everything else they were saying.

                    Yami Yugi: Wait a minute! Did you just summon a bunch of monsters in one turn? Seto Kaiba: Yeah. So? Yami: That's against the rules, isn't it? Kaiba: Screw the rules, I have money! — Episode 1, Yu-Gi-Oh! The Abridged Series

                    by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 11:01:50 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I especially disagree (3+ / 0-)

                      with the ridiculous non-factual-carefully-hedged-in-"personal-experience" claims about Warren not "meeting people who aren't part of her campaign", because I know for a fact that's not true. Not in the least.

                      Yami Yugi: Wait a minute! Did you just summon a bunch of monsters in one turn? Seto Kaiba: Yeah. So? Yami: That's against the rules, isn't it? Kaiba: Screw the rules, I have money! — Episode 1, Yu-Gi-Oh! The Abridged Series

                      by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 11:03:45 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Fair enough on both counts (eom) (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        Setsuna Mudo

                        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

                        by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 11:04:27 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  Where and when has she campaigned? (0+ / 0-)

                        I've been watching her website for two months and haven't seen a single event that isn't for volunteers.  If you know otherwise, I'd appreciate a schedule, because I'd really like to see her in person before I commit to supporting her in the primary.  

                        Thank you.

                        •  Elizabeth Warren (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY, KingofSpades

                          has been doing a tour of the state meeting with constituents, you're right about her website sucking and nothing else. She has no real primary challenge so it's no surprise that she isn't doing big stump speeches yet (I'm assuming that's what you're talking about?). For the record here are a few clips of her touring South Boston, Springfield, Framignham, Worcester and New Bedford;

                          Yami Yugi: Wait a minute! Did you just summon a bunch of monsters in one turn? Seto Kaiba: Yeah. So? Yami: That's against the rules, isn't it? Kaiba: Screw the rules, I have money! — Episode 1, Yu-Gi-Oh! The Abridged Series

                          by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 12:02:25 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  I asked for a schedule (0+ / 0-)

                            Not a collection of old YouTube clips - that one from Springfield was from her first day of campaigning, and attracted about a dozen people, none of whom actually lived in Springfield, and the rest aren't recent either.

                            If there isn't a schedule of actual campaign appearances, whether meet & greets or stump speeches, how am I supposed to know when and where she's appearing?  

                          •  Stump speeches (0+ / 0-)

                            generally wouldn't happen till the general if the primary is uncontested, that's what I'm trying to tell you.

                            Yami Yugi: Wait a minute! Did you just summon a bunch of monsters in one turn? Seto Kaiba: Yeah. So? Yami: That's against the rules, isn't it? Kaiba: Screw the rules, I have money! — Episode 1, Yu-Gi-Oh! The Abridged Series

                            by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 12:20:08 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I am not asking for stump speeches (0+ / 0-)

                            I am asking for ANY non-volunteer appearances.  Why is this so hard for me to get?

                          •  I just posted clips of non-volunteer above! (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, sapelcovits

                            If that isn't what you wanted maybe you should be more specific!

                            Yami Yugi: Wait a minute! Did you just summon a bunch of monsters in one turn? Seto Kaiba: Yeah. So? Yami: That's against the rules, isn't it? Kaiba: Screw the rules, I have money! — Episode 1, Yu-Gi-Oh! The Abridged Series

                            by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 12:32:43 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  You posted videos, not a schedule (0+ / 0-)

                            I am asking for a schedule of Warren's appearances that are not closed to non-volunteers.  I did not ask for video of appearances that I clearly did not attend and could not attend because there is no schedule of non-volunteer appearances on her website.

                          •  Go to one of the freaking volunteer meetings. (5+ / 0-)

                            Jesus Christ, it's not like you have to actually volunteer. You have legitimate concerns about not knowing enough about her stance on issues, but you take it one step to far. You find every opportunity to repeat yourself to the point of annoyance. Your probably fine on everything else, but with this one thing your a concern troll.

                            20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                            by ndrwmls10 on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 01:17:29 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  That would be attending under false pretenses (0+ / 0-)

                            If there isn't a public appearance schedule yet, why not just say so?  It's certainly better and easier than telling me to lie my way into a closed event.

                          •  Really (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, sapelcovits, Setsuna Mudo

                            Do you think that everyone who attends a volunteer meeting winds up volunteering? Or even that everyone who goes is already sure they want to support Warren?

                            I mean, "attending under false pretenses"? Seriously? Are you worried about the thought police arresting you?

                            Political Director, Daily Kos

                            by David Nir on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 03:09:34 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Why, yes, I *did* assume that (0+ / 0-)

                            A meeting for volunteers was just that:  a meeting for volunteers or prospective volunteers, not the general public.  A lot of people on this site laughed at the Tea Party guy who lied his way into a volunteer event and called Warren names.  Why would it be acceptable for me to lie my way into a volunteer event when I can't make that commitment?  

                          •  Because he heckled her! (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, sapelcovits, Setsuna Mudo

                            That's the distinction. Had he not said anything it would have been fine. Even with his views.

                            20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                            by ndrwmls10 on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 03:23:25 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Because (5+ / 0-)

                            "Volunteer meetings" for candidates are not only for people who know ahead of time that they can commit to such meetings. They are also for people who are unsure and may walk away with no interest in volunteering. You aren't required to make a commitment before, during, or after such a meeting.

                            But who knows! You could go to one, find yourself suitably impressed, and decide to volunteer on the spot. Any campaign would be happy if that happened. And if it didn't, so be it.

                            But if you are uncomfortable because you think that going in without an advance mental commitment constitutes "lying," then why don't you call the campaign, explain your situation, and see if they still welcome you?

                            Political Director, Daily Kos

                            by David Nir on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 03:26:23 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  That's reasonable (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:

                            The odds that I will be able to volunteer are almost nil, but if this is the only way to see Warren in person, I'll look into it.  Thanks.

                          •  As someone who has run volunteer meetings (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo

                            For political campaigns, I fully understand your situation. I would definitely not expect every attendee to show up with any kind of commitment in mind. Information gathering is fine, in my book. Obviously that tea partier showed up in bad faith, purely to heckle. I trust you won't do that! :)

                            Political Director, Daily Kos

                            by David Nir on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 05:24:20 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Heavens, no! (0+ / 0-)

                            I don't heckle, even candidates I don't agree with - and yes, I do agree with Warren on a lot of things.  It's the omissions and the almost cult-like attitude of some of her volunteers that is bothering me so much, not her :)

                    •  I'm one person, not plural :) (0+ / 0-)

                      However, I'm not supporting Warren until I get some answers or have the opportunity to see her in person without committing to volunteer or donate.  So far all I've gotten is silence.  If you have such information, I'd appreciate it, because I am really frustrated.

                  •  That's exactly it (0+ / 0-)

                    I'm planning to vote for whomever wins the Democratic primary, but I'd sure like to see what Warren has to say on something that isn't related to finance.  Whomever wins the election will almost certainly have to vote on at least one, possibly two Supreme Court nominees in the next Congress, and I am not at all comfortable with Warren's silence on civil liberties, reproductive rights, and a host of other issues.

                    As for independents...the last poll I saw had Brown leading Warren by several points among non-affiliated voters.  If someone has a more recent poll showing otherwise I'd be delighted to see it.  He doesn't deserve to be as popular as he is, and I'm at a loss as to just why so many people like him.  

                    •  ??? (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:

                      Actually, I just checked her website and though she needs to add a section on social issues she takes several more strong non-finance related traditional liberal stances. She takes stands for unions, greater infrastructure, fighting climate change, and fair trade. So not completely empty.

                      Yami Yugi: Wait a minute! Did you just summon a bunch of monsters in one turn? Seto Kaiba: Yeah. So? Yami: That's against the rules, isn't it? Kaiba: Screw the rules, I have money! — Episode 1, Yu-Gi-Oh! The Abridged Series

                      by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 11:40:53 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  And (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:

                        Elizabeth Warren does not need to win unaffiliated voters to win, she even doesn't need to win them to win crushingly. The number of true independents is microscopic, I prefer Warren taking strong liberal stances -- she is running fucking Massachusetts after all, and not trying to appeal to a mythical center.

                        It is borderline trolling, in my opinion, to step into DKE and try to purport this ridiculous myth, people here already know better; Elizabeth Warren does not need to win independents. The question of her lagging issues page is completely valid -- your ridiculous concern trolling about indies is not. Offer real statistics demonstrating that Warren is going to lose because of her supposed problems with indies or walk away; DKE does not deal in emotion or myth and no one is going to buy anything based off of personal observations about your supposedly independent friends.

                        Yami Yugi: Wait a minute! Did you just summon a bunch of monsters in one turn? Seto Kaiba: Yeah. So? Yami: That's against the rules, isn't it? Kaiba: Screw the rules, I have money! — Episode 1, Yu-Gi-Oh! The Abridged Series

                        by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 11:46:31 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  You haven't been here long, have you? (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:

                          I'm a regular diarist and an administrator for Readers & Book Lovers, not a troll, and I've been at DKos for six or seven years.  I've lived in Massachusetts since 1978, and I am asking these questions about Elizabeth Warren because I am trying to make up my mind about whether to support her in the primary or vote for whomever is left standing.  

                          The worst of it is that I like what Warren has to say about Wall Street.  I just want to know what she thinks about something non-finance related, and I've been asking for two solid months.  Ditto a campaign schedule.  I don't think either is too much to ask if I'm supposed to support her campaign.

                      •  almost all about economic issues, (3+ / 0-)

                        which is smart, because if she needs to win anyone its blue collar Democrats who live in places like Southie.

                        I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

                        by James Allen on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 12:58:36 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                    •  WA-Sen 2010 (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo

                      Dino Rossi won indies by 18 points while losing by 4. WA is D+5, MA is D+12. Warren doesn't have to win indies at all. Indeed, she can get blown away so long as she holds Democrats. And in the most recent polling she was pretty much doing that. But I do think you have a point about access to information.

                      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

                      by conspiracy on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 02:31:54 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Though no exit polling was conducted (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo

                        from the polls conducted before the election we can infer that Brown beat Coakley among indies somewhere around 2 to 1. Even if Warren lost indies 60-40, that would still put Brown in deep doodoo (how deep depends on how many Dems he peels off).

                        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                        by sapelcovits on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 10:43:52 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                •  I live in Massachusetts (0+ / 0-)

                  And the independents I've talked to are not at all impressed by Warren's unwillingness to pay attention to anyone outside of Metro Boston.   This could easily change, but claiming that "independents" in Massachusetts aren't exactly that is not accurate.

            •  So (3+ / 0-)

              I live in MA, and my State Senator just resigned so we're having a special election. There are a few heady liberals in, but I got a mailing from an Irish union firefighter sort of guy who might have some independent appeal (I don't follow state politics nearly as much as I follow national politics). Anyway, his literature was trying to name drop Warren and link himself to her. I think that's a good sign for Warren.

              27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

              by bumiputera on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 12:37:53 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  I don't know if it matters much for her chances (4+ / 0-)

            But I was going to add, as you said, that people like Heinrich and Baldwin have voting records on a range of issues.  Now, maybe those voting records are an accurate guide to their future votes and positions, maybe not (recall Mark Kirk's famous "sure I voted for cap-and-trade, but fuck it") but at least it's something.

            Warren--I know she has a lot of papers and other writings, but I don't think it's unfair to ask her to make her views a bit more accessible.  She's got the primary locked up and she's already popular with activists, as far as I can tell (and, not to restart any arguments, but I still think of her as something of an anointed primary candidate).  She can get away without having a more detailed issues page or whatever.  But, like I said, I think it would be a gesture of respect to activists if she did put one up.

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

            by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 10:51:31 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Taking back the U.S. House seems to have improved (7+ / 0-)

    with Arizona and Ohio House developments recently, and possible improvement in employment figures (GOP will have to double down on efforts to destroy U.S. economy by Nov., 2012). Hopefully, pa. gerrymandering won't be so extreme as to prevent some democratic improvement in 2012 (especially in Philadelphia suburbs- and perhaps the Easton area).

    •  Sadly, i think we're screwed (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      I think they can lock in 12-6 pretty easily and probably using more than 1 scenario, if a Donna Edwards type screams murder on the GOP side.

      I don't know what we can pick up without the help of scandals or surprise retirements.

      On the plus side, in 2020, as Dems keep infiltrating the burbs of Philly, there's little chance the GOP can keep cutting it up to give them a 2-1 representative margin.

      •  in PA (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, LordMike, TofG, MichaelNY

        I didn't make it clear i was referring to being screwed in PA in my above comment.  AZ/OH/CA/FL should all turn out to help us in 2012.

      •  I've said this before... (5+ / 0-)

        But local concerns will make the map not be a great gerrymander.

        In an ideal world, Republicans would give up enough turf to help others.  But it's pretty clear, for example, Joe Pitts won't sacrifice much territory to shore up PA-6 and PA-7.  And the Republicans seem unwilling to sacrifice both Altmire and Critz, which they should given the long-term drift of the area, because it would mean too many new constituents in the three Republican districts in Western Pennsylvania.  On the other side, the Republicans in PA-8 and PA-15 probably don't want their districts modified too dramatically, which means they'd remain swingy.  

        Also compounding the issue is Tim Holden.  In 2001, when given the choice between surviving a Democratic primary in the Wyoming valley, or taking on a Republican-leaning district, he chose the latter and won.  Chances are he'd make the same choice again, which makes it hard to turn his district into a Democratic voter sink.  

        I fully expect a split Erie, making PA-3 out of reach of Democrats for the next decade.  Beyond that, my guess is we'll be looking at shifts in PVI of only a few points.  Certainly it won't be enough to cement the Republicans in the East - they will lose some of their seats for some of the decade.  

        •  It doesn't have to be great (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

          I just don't see how they win back any of the 12, as like 9 of them are already supremely entrenched so only 3 really need to be shored up.

          PA-15 is the perfect example.  Dent does well in Lehigh County, but when he retires this district could be a better chance if we have a strong Lehigh Dem waiting.

          I just don't think it needs to be a great map to keep 12-6 in 2012 and beyond, pending retirements.  Gerlach has proven to win a swing seat repeatedly, and I'm not sure Trivedi even with Obama can take down Gerlach.  

          Who else is vulnerable, Fitzpatrick and Kelly, and surely Kelly will be helped by a new map.  

          So 12-6 in 2012, 11-7 in the years after barring something special.  A great map isn't needed, we're just screwed by geography.

          •  Barletta. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera, MichaelNY

            PA-11 has been Republican for only two terms since 1955.  And unlike Western PA, Scranton isn't turning to the right - they just really hated the former incumbet Democrat.  

            You could halve the territory with PA-10, but Tom Marino is a weak incumbent, so it's a bad idea to split the difference and have two R+4 seats.  

            The other option is giving most of Lackawanna County to Tim Holden, but the worry is he'd have so much new territory he'd be challenged to the left in a primary, meaning he'd instead go head-to-head with whatever Republican had most of his base, and win.  

            As to the others:

            Fitzpatrick is from Levittown, the most Democratic part of PA-8.  Therefore, he won't be too keen on the logical way to shore up the seat, which is taking off the bottom third and swapping it for right-leaning parts of Montgomery County.  That said, there's no trend toward the Democrats here, unlike the other seats, so it's just going to remain a swing seat.  

            PA-15 is going to be an issue as time passes, as Allentown and Bethlehem have a growing Latino population.  In addition, there's nowhere good to soak up R votes.  

            PA-7 and PA-6 share the same issues and are adjacent.  Both seats are in areas becoming more diverse, and increasingly leaning D.  Both could be shored up easily, but won't because Dutch Country reps don't want to give up hard-right voters.  Of course the Philly seats need to expand a bit, and PA-13 can be better gerrymandered, but this really can't improve things more than a percent.  Gerlach looks safe, but only because Chester County has turned out for him, and it's unclear with the shifting voting patterns in the region if this will continue.  

      •  I remain suspicious (5+ / 0-)

        of the GOP's ability to really lock down those Philly seats.  However they draw them, it's quite likely they will all still have been won by Obama, just not by as much.  Maybe they hold up for the next year.  But by the next good Dem year they will fall like dominoes again.  There's just no way to make them safe GOP.

        I'm much more nervous about the damage they could do in West Pennsylvania.  We're lucky to still have three Democrats from the area.  The assumption is they will draw two of them together, but if they get really crazy with the lines we might end up with only Doyle in Pittsburgh left.

        •  Looking at West PA (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

          1 Dem almost seems right, even Allgheny county doesn't deliver spectacularly Democratic margins any more.

          •  Yeah. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            Speaking as a transplant who's lived here for seven years or so, nothing but a Democratic gerrymander, which splits up Pittsburgh, could result in two safe Democratic seats out here now.  

            Within Allegheny county itself, there's basically three Democratic voter bases.  First, there is the African-American base, mostly in Pittsburgh and a few other municipalities.  

            Second is the working-class white Democratic vote.  This is still overwhelming in Pittsburgh itself, but outside of the city it's mainly in dying mill towns where everyone is desperately poor, and the population is declining precipitously.  

            Finally, there's the middle-class vote.  Which is pretty weak.  There are some Democratic wealthier suburbs to the East, which is why (along with the higher Black population) the East Hills are the most Democratic region.  The South Hills are around 50/50, while the North Hills are overwhelmingly Republican.  

            But really, except for one or two communities (Edgewood, Forest Hills, to a lesser extent Mount Lebanon) if you're middle class, white, and live in the suburbs, you're a Republican in Pittsburgh.  Which is totally different from the Philly area.  

            •  Pittsburgh's college communities (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              probably have a significant number of middle-to-upper class liberals as well as young Democratic voters.  However, I think they're mostly confined to the city, which just makes it easier for the GOP to draw lines in that region to their benefit while conceding one vote sink.

              •  Right... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                Pittsburgh is an astonishingly cheap city.  We have so much vacant housing stock still, as the population has declined by 50% since 1950.  It's also incredibly safe for a Rust Belt city.  So basically, anyone who wants to live in a walkable, urban neighborhood which is safe can do so.  Hell, Pittsburgh has plenty of "suburban urban" neighborhoods as well, so you have plenty of choices.  

                As a result, people move to the suburbs in large part for three reasons.

                Tax avoidance:  Pittsburgh has a fairly high local income tax, while surrounding communities do not.  Needless to say, tax dodgers are Republican.  

                Racism:  Pittsburgh is the most blatantly open racist place I have ever lived.  A lot of the people in the lower-middle class who are leaving the city do so because it "just isn't safe with those black kids these days."  These folks actually are less Republican than the former, but they tend not to vote much, so it doesn't matter.

                Schools:  This cuts across political lines.  Nonetheless, there is a strong association between the "best school districts" and really right-wing politics in the County.  Still, I think liberals tend to self-select in the few more politically balanced places with better schools, like Mount Lebanon.  As a parent, I am not personally concerned, as the City has a pretty good magnet school system.  

        •  I expect that they'll (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG, Setsuna Mudo, James Allen, MichaelNY

          axe Critz and leave Altmire pretty close to status quo (subject to strengthening the 3rd and the 18th.

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 09:35:07 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Pastor Agnostic's Famous Picto-Dictionary (2+ / 0-)

    contains the pictorial definition for the word "pinhead."  

    Jan Brewer.

    Other Picto-nary words and images?

    Tawdy - Wasilly Sarah

    Medioocre - Rickie Sanitorium

    Ineffectual - Rick Perry

    De'classe' - Newt

    Contemptible - Rush

    What we call god is merely a living creature with superior technology & understanding. If their fragile egos demand prayer, they lose that superiority.

    by agnostic on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 06:42:26 AM PST

  •  There is never an excuse needed... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir post a pic of Sofia Vergara.

    Occupy Wall Street AND K Street!!!!

    by Egalitare on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 06:43:50 AM PST

  •  MN-redistricting (8+ / 0-)

    Apparently the commission is supposed to come out with preliminary maps today. If anyone sees them posted, let us know. I haven't seen the maps, nor do I know anyone that has personally. Kind of tight lipped around the court room.

  •  NY-24: Interesting about Hanna (6+ / 0-)

    My perspective has been that Hanna has been the most reasonable of the upstate Republican delegation.  He's broken with the GOP more often even though he arguably has a more conservative district than NY-23 or NY-25.  I'd rather see Buerkle get pushed out than Hanna retire over health reasons.

    Fact are stubborn things. -John Adams

    by circlesnshadows on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 07:23:42 AM PST

  •  WI Sen: Tim Sullivan backs away from Senate rub (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    Former Bucyrus CEO Tim Sullivan appears to be backing away from a previously mulled run for Herb Kohl's open US Senate seat.


    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 07:24:27 AM PST

    •  I was wondering what a Senate rub was (0+ / 0-)

      I'm sorry it wasn't as fun as I thought, but it reminded me of the Woody Allen movie, "Take the Money and Run." If you've seen it, you'll know what I mean.

      Sorry for the extraneous stuff and thanks for the info. :-)

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 06:59:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  69% of White Americans Approve of MLK (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, SoCalGal23, MichaelNY

    Martin Luther King...hmm...interesting statistic.

  •  I find it a bit sexist... (6+ / 0-)

    that you write:

    I'm gonna miss having an excuse to link to pics of Sofia Vergara, but whatcha gonna do?

    Don't you consider posting a link to a pic of a woman in full cleavage mode, in a political post, a tad sexist?

    Maybe it's just because I'm female that I find every opportunity to ogle a woman's breast spilling over her dress somewhat odd. Just doesn't seem the place for it.

    A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward. Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by MA Liberal on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 08:08:52 AM PST

    •  Then don't look (10+ / 1-)

      What did you expect the pic to be, she's known for not dressing conservatively.

      It is you, 100%.

    •  You sound like a San Francisco Progressive (0+ / 0-)

      Always whining about everything being inappropriate and wrong. Also, using baseless attacks.... accusing fellow people on the left side of the political spectrum of being "sexist," "homophobes" and "racists." It just gets so tiring when people insist on arguing over the smallest things ever.

    •  I agree with you (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 09:36:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  ? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, MichaelNY

      I'm sorry but I don't see how it's "sexist"; that implies he's somehow stereotyping or discriminating against her in some way. Sofia Vergara makes a point of dressing that way so it's not like he's deliberately trying to turn her into a sex object or whatever and it's not like he doesn't address the content of what is going on. I mean, if someone linked and just said "hey look, this chick is hot" and it was an accomplished woman I'd get that that was sexist, because they're seeing her in a purely physical way -- but that's not what David Nir is doing. I apologize, but I'm just not seeing it here.

      Yami Yugi: Wait a minute! Did you just summon a bunch of monsters in one turn? Seto Kaiba: Yeah. So? Yami: That's against the rules, isn't it? Kaiba: Screw the rules, I have money! — Episode 1, Yu-Gi-Oh! The Abridged Series

      by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 10:58:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sexism goes beyond simple (0+ / 0-)

        discrimination and stereotyping.
        When a diarist is doing a political front page post about a candidate and feels the need to say, basically, "Look, isn't his wife really hot?" I just don't feel it's good form.
        Not to mention he was diverting attention from his own post to do so.

        A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward. Franklin D. Roosevelt

        by MA Liberal on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 03:37:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't agree (0+ / 0-)

      But I do respect your reaction. All of us get ticked off by different things. My point of view is that the moderators here like to have fun with stuff and considered this a funny aside. But I do get that you react differently to this.

      The thing that probably most bugged me was when one of the moderators posted about his hatred of the Yankees in a Daily Digest, but I've never mentioned it before because I figured that was his prerogative and also that it wasn't worth really discussing. Sorry if you may find it belittling to compare, but it's just to make the point in a different way that what annoys different people is different.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 07:04:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm reflecting on what you've said (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      in this sub-thread, and I'm tipping you and understand your statements. But I find myself thinking of my mother, who was very active in the Women's Liberation Movement in the 70s. While clearing out my parents' apartment, following my father's death, which came only about 9 months after my mother's, one of the things I found was her "Uppity Women Unite!" button, which I have kept with pride. And she was an anthropologist who taught sex roles courses and I know she'd laugh at this kind of discussion and not consider it worth even talking about. But every person is different.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 07:12:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Deomocrats over-haul RI public pensions (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, SoCalGal23, MichaelNY

    This probably doesn't have a whole lot of relevance on a specific race for 2012 that I care about, but I'm wondering how the overhaul of Rhode Island's pension system for public employees will play out head-to-head with what has happen in WI and OH.

    Sure its a lot different, in that the pension system is the definition of poorly deisgned, it was passed by Democrats and signed by and Indie Guv (Chafee).  But its a fascinating contrast to the Walker/Kasich methods while simultaneously a supplementary to their goal of saving money on the backs of public union members.

    I wonder if this could come up in a GOP debate about how to tackle deficits (targeting federal employee pensions)...

    •  Remember that WI workers accepted cuts (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      In fact, the unions were willing to agree to every cent of demonstrable savings Walker put in SB10. Walker's goal was not to "save money on the backs of public union members". That was the excuse. His goal is to break the unions, cripple local government, and amass as much power and taxpayer money in his iron fist. Fiscal conservatism is not a recall-worthy offense for someone elected as a Republican IMHO. The "Walker/Kasich method" of power grabbing is grounds for a recall if that option is available, which is why I signed the petition.

      Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02

      by fearlessfred14 on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 07:45:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Link to AZ story (6+ / 0-)

    It appears our good governor may now attempt to create a constitutional crisis by firing Mathis again.

    To believe that markets determine value is to believe that milk comes from plastic bottles. Bromley (1985)

    by sneakers563 on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 08:37:03 AM PST

  •  Who's beating Jesus in the US? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SoCalGal23, Setsuna Mudo

    Saint Ronnie  of Reagan?

    Herman Cain: The only Republican ever screwed over by the NRA.

    by AZphilosopher on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 09:21:25 AM PST

  •  NC-10 - Patsy Keever will run (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir, MichaelNY

    Democratic state Rep. Patsy Keever told the Asheville Citizen-Times ( ) on Friday she would seek her party's nomination to unseat Republican U.S. Rep. Patrick McHenry in the 10th District.

    The retired teacher joined the Legislature in September 2010 and previously served as a Buncombe County commissioner. She ran for Congress in 2004, losing to then-Rep. Charles Taylor in the general election.

    Redistricting has thrown Keever into the same district as a fellow NC Dem, so rather than face a primary there, Keever will challenge Asheville's mayor in the Dem primary for a shot at Patrick McHenry.

    "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by bear83 on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 11:36:42 AM PST

  •  Ranked-choice voting should not be discarded now (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The nation is in turmoil. California is in severe financial trouble. California's cities are in severe financial trouble. Even "liberal" Oakland voted down a $60 million parcel tax that would have made up for sales taxes stolen diverted by Sacramento.

    The failures of Oakland mayor Jean Quan should not be laid at the feet of RCV. Nobody who chose between Quan and Don Perata last year was asking, "I wonder how either of these candidates would handle the police response to a persistent political "occupation" downtown?"

    If the voters Oakland want to recall Mayor Quan, fine. But I suggest that they use RCV to elect her replacement.

    Both the politicians and the voters need time to learn how to work with system. The sore losers should learn to respect the legitimacy of candidates chosen by the strongest coalition of voters rather than most partisan voters.

    San Francisco's low-turnout should be blamed on the fact that it was an odd-year election, with no state offices or initiatives on the ballot. And 42% isn't that bad... My city has the same problem with odd-year elections and we only got a pathetic 22% to choose reps for three open city council seats.

    Ed Lee won because he's a well-known incumbent. It's disingenous to say that he won "despite" accusations of fraud and that RCV is somehow to blame.

    Politicians who think they know how to manage primary & general camaign had better think twice before trying to overturn RCV. California's new "open primary" law has already thown a monkey wrench into politics-as-usual. They need to embrace the change.

    Here's's analysis of the San Francisco race.

    Portland Maine seems to be happy with their experience with RCV.

    Have you noticed?
    Politicians who promise LESS government
    only deliver BAD government.

    by jjohnjj on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 12:36:16 PM PST

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