The first impression Ron Suskind, author of Confidence Men, gives is of a small man waiting to explode with pent up energy and outrage. At the podium he is animated, verbal, dynamic, forceful, humorous, comedic, and vastly entertaining. The man can spin a story and capture you with his stacatto but largely disorganized delivery.
I felt, after nearly two hours of listening to him speak and take Q&As, that I had listened to the mouth that heard the horse’s mouth; or put another way, I was in the presence of the man who was the mouse in the White House. One degree of separation between me and Barack Obama, left me with the impression of having intimate behind-the-scenes knowledge from a very reliable source.
Suskind gave his audience more than a mere book talk. He gave us his opinions on the state of newspaper journalism, his “road to Damascus” moment (which I won’t discuss – read the book!), and his unfettered belief that the women who serve and have served in the Obama White House universally far outshone the men in both judgment and guts.
Let me give you the final assessment up front: In Suskind’s view, President Obama has no difficulty staying on message, no problem with rhetoric, and plenty of oratorical ability, making him a great communicator. However, for a man who campaigned against Hillary Clinton by defining the people’s choice between “experience” (Clinton) and “judgment” (his own), the electorate was presented with a false choice. Obama’s problem is with his lack in the forms of deeds, actions, decisions, and his seeming inability, at worst, or reluctance, at best, to learn his political lessons after nearly three years in office. In short, what we need in a president in these tendentious times is experience or the ability to acquire the right kind of experience very quickly. So far, President Obama has not demonstrated he’s that kind of intellect.
My final assessment? A book about Obama's failed "Team of Rivals." Not the book, the overwhelmed president.
And a third party: Paul Krugman's take and comments.
Suskind opened his presentation by laying it on the line concerning the decline of newspapers, which he describe as “embattled.” The business plan for running the classic newspaper no longer works – selling print ads to underwrite selling newspapers. Those in power are delighted – an informed public. . . democracy. . .etc. There no longer exist budgets to fund investigative teams of reporters who will work for days, weeks, even months to get the story, à la the Watergate scoop by The Washington Post in the 70s. Now with blogs, the life of a reporter is more complicated and the news attention cycle is reduced to minutes and hours. Such conditions are not conducive to getting deep background, performing intensive probing, and spending hours teasing information from reluctant sources.
What’s left to the dedicated reporter? He or she must resort to writing a book, since no newspaper will support the work and expense of telling the whole truth beyond the “truthiness” of the screaming headline anymore.
“Let me tell you how the book began,” Susskind began humorously. “I’m an enemy of the state again. My trip here was sponsored by the Federal Witness Protection Program. They’ll never find me in Miami!
“Ya gotta pick a moment. August, 2007.
“At that point, Obama’s 30 points behind Hillary. Seems he doesn’t have much of a chance. He sits down with his economic team. Pretty extraordinary set of advisors, most didn’t make it into the WH with him. They advised him that the economy was rotted out. Our house was nothing more than a disintegrating shell with a fresh coat of paint, which is debt.
“Four days later, it’s Obama’s birthday, he’s in Atlanta. Robert Wolf calls Obama; he’s the tumbler on Wall Street. He’s calling from a 110' $9M yacht belonging to Sal Naro, who runs a big hedge fund. Wolf sees Naro get a call and start having a meltdown. The first shock of what’s about to ripple worldwide. He says, ‘The whole thing is collapsing, everything’s coming apart.’ Wolf says to the president, ‘I’m not an adviser. . .' and he repeats what Naro’s just told him. ‘We’re leveraged up 40-50 times; we knew this was gonna happen. It’s a once-in-a-lifetime event.’
“With this call, Obama gets a precious thing – a glimpse into the future.
“Speech in Iowa really caught everyone, it sang. . . ‘no red states, no blue states.’ It was an aria. It was like a dream. Speech in Cooper Union – it was like. . . ‘touch my garment.’
“Who’s he got around him? 6'8" Paul Volcker who believes totally in “tough love.” Bill Donaldson, Robert Reich, Joe Stiglitz, Robert Wolf. They’re scared. See Ship USA going over the waterfall. All of them say, ‘Restructure Wall Street. Use the political capital to restructure the financial capital. Be Roosevelt – tough love with teeth.
“Wall Street sees they’re toast. They’re smart; they also see Obama has no experience. We gotta to do something. We gotta get our team in. Robert Rubin claims, ‘I can get you to the table.’ Team Robert Rubin: Larry Summers, Jason Furman – Austan Goolsbie gets pushed out. Summers says, ‘You can get me there, I can take care of things.’
“Now, I exhibit a lot of sympathy for Obama in spite of the early reviews of my book. I know why people do what they do. It’s the Good Enough Reason Rule – people do what they do for a good enough reason.
“Obama came through the Fall, shudders, breaks into cold sweat. He’s never run anything in terms of an organization before. All of a sudden, he’s on top of the wave.
“Twenty-one month run to glory ended in Manassas on the night his grandmother died. 100,000 people in a field. He was hoarse, exhausted. I was there – took us 5 hours to go 20 miles. All kinds of people were there, reporters like me, business men, teachers, rednecks who drove pick-ups with gun racks, professionals, kids, retireds. But you could already see. You felt it. It’s kind of hard not to feel an ennui; we had painted our hopes on him.
“Next night, speech flat. Already he’s slipping away. ‘No fireworks,’ he said to Axlerod. Sort of the same thing on Inauguration Day. You remember – no brilliant inspirational passages no memorable catchphrase.
“Right off the bat, first economic meeting, he informs everyone he is going to be forceful. He’s running up the learning curve. But he’s not the leader at the table; he sits at the table.
“Larry and Tim (Geithner) believe in the Hippocratic Oath of economic reform – “first do no harm.” They say, ‘Markets always figure it out.’ It’s a tough position to argue against.
“Obama says, ‘I want us to be like Sweden, not Japan. I want to nationalize banks. Message to banks -- You’re a bunch of casino operators, I want you to get back to the dull old formula of 3-6-3. 3% interest paid, 6% interest loaned, and at 3 o’clock go play golf.’
“Sweden nationalized banks and roared back. Japan funded banks and created two decades of stagnation. We’re entering the third year of stagnation.
“Geithner is challenging Obama in the meeting. But Larry lines up with Obama. For the first time, the two buddies are on the opposite sides of an argument. In March, Obama announces, ‘I want to take down the Too Big to Fail Banks. We don’t need them. It will kill off the credit fear.’ Geitner let’s it be known, ‘That duly elected leader doesn’t know what he’s talking about.’ Geithner had been there during the 9/11 moment. Nobody else at the table had.
“March 13, 2008. Obama says. ‘I just want to take down Citi Bank. Tim, I want a plan to unwind Citi Bank. That’s the key.’
“But Geithner and Summers stonewalled, dragged their feet, stalled, did nothing. The day came when the plan was due. Christine Romer asks, ‘Do I tell him or not?’ There was no plan.
“Rahm Emanuel eyes her. You know what that must have been like. Obama likes to tell the story, When Rahm lost that middle finger, he was rendered mute. Rahm huddles with Summers. He’s livid. Summers confirms, ‘She’s right.’”
Summers and Geithner have a strategy worked out. They aren’t the first to do this, it happens all the time. It’s called “slow-walking.” Experts ignore their presidents even though they are supposed to serve at his pleasure. Both men feel Obama’s not ready for prime time.
“When I interviewed Obama about this scene, he said, “'Agitated’ isn’t the word I’d use” [to describe his feelings]. He talked about bureaucracies being slow. But he had the wind knocked out of him then.
“He’d come into office saying he wanted to be another Roosevelt; he had a super majority in the Senate; health care was his top priority. He let it drift – then gave it up. Jobs were his priority. The stimulus wasn’t big enough. They blew it. Obama couldn’t make the tough call over the stimulus/bail out.
“In January 2010, Obama’s been handed a huge defeat. He complains, ‘I’ve lost my narrative. I have no narrative.’ A new guy comes in, Pete Rouse, who starts firing off memos and tells Obama, ‘You need to establish accountability.’ As a result, most of the staff Obama brought with him to the WH is out the door.
“Obama seems to get a second wind. He does a bi-partisan deal with the Bush tax cuts, begins doing the stuff he had had Biden do. He tells Volcker, ‘Now I’m ready to be Rooseveltian.' Volcker tells him, ‘If you’re going to be bold, you’re going to have to harm someone. You think I could have cleaned up the mess with the Hippocratic Oath? You must change the course, not just the balance of clout.’ Restructure, not reform Wall Street.
“Then, when I’m interviewing him, he has Osama bin Laden in the cross-hairs. Spring of '10. All new staff. He insists he’s learned from his mistakes. The Republicans seem to have weakened. Then they find a new cause.
“The debt ceiling hits at the end of the summer. And it seemed like nothing had changed.
“Now it’s not the staff. It’s him. He could refuse the money for the 2012 campaign that’s coming in from Wall St. He’s the president. He doesn’t need it. But he continues to take it. As long as money is considered Constitutionally the same as speech, he will continue to drift.”
Time for Q & A Note: I’m only presenting the ones directly related to the topic and in highly edited form. (Folks get in front of a mic, they meander.) The questions reflect the words and opinion of the questioner. I am not responsible for their contents or accuracy.
Q. Some have said Republicans are willing to let the economy collapse in an effort to win in ‘12.
A. We’re living in an era when my only victory is your defeat. Obama’s trying to call them out on it. I think the Republican strategy isn’t going to work.
Q. OWS has established a constituency that is telling the president to "grow a spine."
A. When people take to the streets, it’s a sign they’re dissatisfied with the political system. Obama has conflict. He talks like he wants to do it, but he can’t act, The financial transaction tax, for example. Obama wanted to do it. $150B a year. Summers turns to Orszag and says, ‘I’m not going to let him.’ They shorted his rhetoric. It paid. Obama didn’t do it.
Q. In '08, Obama’s prime support was cash from Wall Street – how much did that influence his actions?
A. This gets to the issue. Choices matter. Why doesn’t he say, ‘No.’? You take the money, you lose the moral force, the high ground.
Q. Republican Party has changed quite a bit. Even under Reagan, they were willing to raise taxes. How can they get out of that corner of no revenue increases?
A. Fact of the matter, pledges are very toxic. Like McCarthy demonstrated. Republicans are afraid, but remain chained to Grover Norquist. In some ways, transparency produces Kabuki. Politicians profit by not exhibiting their true feelings. But Obama didn’t call them out on it. In the Spring of ‘09 he had bi-partisan support for restructuring Wall Street. Shelby came to him and said, ‘Now’s the time for Old Testament justice.’ Then Tim and Larry slow-walked, advised caution. That’s what Obama went with.
Q. Do you think Obama’s lack of a strong hand has to do with his background in academics?
A. He’s erudite, brilliant. I don’t think it’s his take, it’s a matter of intelligence. Is it the kind that makes a good president? Truman is an example of good presidential intelligence. Look, when you’re president, they’re all tough decisions if they get to your desk. Obama fell into a Kennedy "best and brightest" pool. Kennedy calculated if you surround yourself with enough experts, the right solution is bound to come up. Only, you’ll remember, their answers didn’t work. It’s a matter of growth with Obama. Can he learn from his mistakes?
Q. Relationship between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
A. The actors on the stage we have right now. Whew! Some would say Hamlet but Titus Andronicus might be better. It’s a very complex relationship. She’s tough, experienced, and a good negotiator. Can pull out the knife. Does a really good job with so-called tough guys, ‘What, are you kidding me?’
The women in the Obama administration are strong. The men are a little – how should I say – suffering from a bit of. . .er, envy. The women don’t. Elizabeth Warren – Ralph Nader with attitude. Again, – the decision [to not appoint her the head of the commission she created herself] was right in front of him and Obama didn’t choose. He gives her a head fake.
I asked a source on Wall Street, ‘What’s your deal with Elizabeth Warren?’
‘It’s that she’s playing on a cultural landscape that Obama used to play on. She’ll get replicated by a thousand. A rock star regulator. All the really talented people will want to go down to Washington and serve under her.’ It reverses the current pattern of impatiently doing your time in D.C. before counting your money as a player on Wall Street once it’s over.
Q. Dylan Ratigan’s movement “Get the money out.”
A. Dylan Ratigan has it right – action matters. All part of the way democracy responds when the culture doesn’t meet the people’s needs.
Next installment (probably) not until Monday: An afternoon with Chinese authors and an evening with Nicole Krauss. I'll be at Book Fair events non-stop starting this afternoon until Sunday night with no time to write about it until Monday. Sorry!