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I'm taking a break from my Fantasy Redistricting series to bring you something much more important. I've combed through the 2008 and 2010 election results of every single of the 150 districts so as to determine where we can compete under these lines. Below the fold I will have wonderful pictures of all the districts and wonderful numbers of the ones favorable to us. By the way, in case you didn't know, the photo below is the Austin skyline and was taken by Josh Brewster. In my opinion, it is the most beautiful skyline in Texas and perhaps only second to Charlotte in the South.






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Rural
2 Democratic - 2 Opportunity

District 31 (Blue): This district is heavily Hispanic and based in the rural border area outside of Laredo. Democrats received high 70s and low 80s in both years.

District 43 (Yellow): This district, although moderately Hispanic, should best be described as an opportunity. In 2008, Democratic candidates swept year (but not overwhelmingly). In 2010, Republican candidates narrowly took every race.

District 74 (Yellow): This district, based in Big Bend, is the home of Pete Gallego. Wonderful, wonderful, wonderful Pete Gallego. I'd really love it if he ran against Quico Canseco. Anyway, safe Democratic district where Obama and other Democrats took at least 58% in 2008. In 2010, we took all of the races with a bare majority here.

District 80 (Red): In 2008, we moderately won this district in all races. In 2010, we barely lost in all races. Opportunity district at best.



El Paso
5 Democratic - 0 Opportunity
Total: 7 Democratic - 2 Opportunity

District 75 (Blue): This district is heavily Hispanic. It is also heavily Democratic. Democrats received at least 65% in both years.

District 76 (Yellow): This district is heavily Hispanic. It is also heavily Democratic. Democrats received at least 70% in both years.

District 77 (Orange): This district is heavily Hispanic. It is also heavily Democratic. Democrats received at least 55% in both years.

District 78 (Yellow): Although this district is heavily Hispanic, it isn't exactly heavily Democratic. Democrats in 2008 received at least 55%, but that fell to a 50-50 performance in 2010. I'm going to rank this as a Democratic district, because we should be favored normally here.

District 79 (Green): This district is heavily Hispanic. It is also heavily Democratic. Democrats received at least 55% in both years.



Laredo
1 Democratic - 0 Opportunity
Total: 8 Democratic - 2 Opportunity

District 42 (Yellow): Heavily Hispanic. Heavily Democratic. Democratic candidates in both years pulled at least 70%.



The Valley
6 Democratic - 1 Opportunity
Total: 14 Democratic - 3 Opportunity

District 35 (Red): Heavily Hispanic. Heavily Democratic. Democratic candidates in both years pulled at least 60% (with a few exceptions).

District 36 (Pink): Heavily Hispanic. Heavily Democratic. Democratic candidates in both years pulled at least 65%.

District 37 (Grey): Heavily Hispanic. Heavily Democratic. Democratic candidates in both years pulled at least 55% (usually more).

District 38 (Pink): Heavily Hispanic. Heavily Democratic. Democratic candidates in both years pulled at least 57%.

District 39 (Orange): Heavily Hispanic. Heavily Democratic. Democratic candidates in both years pulled at least 70%.

District 40 (Green): Heavily Hispanic. Heavily Democratic. Democratic candidates in both years pulled at least 65%.

District 41 (Blue): Heavily Hispanic. Moderately Democratic. In 2008, Democrats got at least 60%. In 2010, though, Democrats plummeted to 50-50 results. I'm going to rate this one as an opportunity.



Corpus Christi
0 Democratic - 2 Opportunity
14 Democratic - 5 Opportunity

District 33 (Green): Obama won this district with 49.8%. Democrats in other races received anywhere from 51%-56%. In 2010, on the other hand, Democrats not named White (who got 47.0%) or Sharp (46.8%) couldn't rise above 45%. This district is a good opportunity district for a Hispanic candidate (in fact, this district was one of the main causes of the lawsuit).

District 34 (Orange): Obama also won this district with 49.8%. Democrats in other races pulled anywhere between 52%-57%. In 2010, Democrats held up surprisingly well here. All except Barbara Ann Radnofsky (the Attorney General race) got at least 45%, and some even came close to winning. Another good opportunity for a Hispanic candidate.



San Antonio
8 Democratic - 0 Opportunity
Total: 22 Democratic - 5 Opportunity

District 116 (Red): This district is safely Democratic and Hispanic.

District 117 (Grey): This district, although Hispanic, isn't exactly safe. In 2008, we romped here, but in 2010 we narrowly lost all races. I'm going to rate it as a Democratic seat, though.

District 118 (Green): This southside San Antonio Hispanic district is in the same boat as 117.

District 119 (Pink): The second southside San Antonio Hispanic district is in the same boat as 117 and 118, except perhaps a little bit stronger for us.

District 120 (Red): This district is based in the heavily African American metrocom areas of San Antonio. Safely Democratic.

District 123 (Yellow): This is safely Democratic and Hispanic.

District 124 (Orange): This is safely Democratic and Hispanic.

District 125 (Blue): This is safely Democratic and Hispanic.



Austin
5 Democratic - 5 Opportunity
Total: 27 Democratic - 10 Opportunity

District 17 (Yellow): The district number isn't actually within the picture, but it's the yellow district just southeast of Austin proper. Obama only got 40.9% here, but other Democrats did much better in 2008. In the Railroad Commissioner race, Thompson got 44.9%. In the supreme court race of 2008, our candidate got 46.2%. Interestingly (this has got to be anomalous), Bill White did better here than Obama. Perry only won the district 53.5%-41.1%. In both years, the Democratic candidates did 2-5% better than their statewide result. This isn't a seat we should win immediately, but one we can compete in sometime this decade as the population base (Bastrop) gets bluer because of Hispanic growth.

District 45 (Purple): This district is based in San Marcos, a nice college town. In 2008, Democratic candidates pulled into a 50-50 performance. In 2010, that plummeted to a mid-to-high 30s performance. Medium-term this is a good opportunity for us.

District 46 (Orange): This district, based in east-side Austin (the African American part of town) couldn't ever be won by a Republican.

District 47 (Yellow): This district, based in the resort areas of Austin (Lake Travis, the Oasis, etc.). Democrats won it in 2008 and Republicans won it in 2010. I'll rate this as an opportunity.

District 48 (Blue): This district was won largely by Democrats in 2008 and narrowly by them in 2010, so it's obviously a Democratic district.

District 49 (Yellow): In both years, Democrats scored at least 65% here.

District 50 (Grey): Repeat information for District 48.

District 51 (Red): Hispanic opportunity district where Democrats routinely get at least 70%.

District 52 (Green): This district is schizophrenic. In 2008, Democrats won everything here by decent margins (making the district around D+1). In 2010, however, Republican outperformed their statewide results. I'm gonna rate this as an opportunity district, as it should be.

District 106 (Pink): This district is a good opportunity for us long-term as Cedar Park is trending to the left hard. In 2008 we were about 8 points behind (but still running ahead of our statewide average). In 2010, we were about 3-5 points better than our statewide average.



Centroplex and Waco
1 Democratic - 0 Opportunity
Total: 28 Democratic - 10 Opportunity

District 54 (Green): This district, based in the dominant city of the Centroplex (Killeen) was a surprise to me. Democrats wiped the floor here in 2008 by getting at least 58% in all races except TX-Senate. In 2010, we narrowly (and I mean narrowly) lost everything we contested. I'm going to rate this one, despite that, as a Democratic district.



Fort Worth
3 Democratic - 0 Opportunity
Total: 31 Democratic - 10 Opportunity

District 90 (Green): This is a Hispanic opportunity district. Safely Democratic.

District 93 (Pink): This district, based in Arlington, is safely Democratic. Our candidates there received a minimum of 55% in both years.

District 95 (Grey): This is an African American district. Safely Democratic.



Dallas
7 Democratic - 3 Opportunity
Total: 38 Democratic - 13 Opportunity

District 100 (Blue): Safely Democratic African American seat.

District 103 (Orange): Safely Democratic Hispanic seat.

District 104 (Green): Safely Democratic Hispanic seat.

District 105 (Blue): This seat is a good opportunity for us in the mid-cities. Democrats pulled 50-50 in 2008, but held up surprisingly well in 2010 by getting at least 40% (Bill White got 46.7%).

District 107 (Green): This seat is Democratic. In 2008 we pulled 65% performances, and in 2010 we got at least 55% across the board.

District 108 (Red): I'm actually bullish about this district. In 2008, we pulled into a 50-50 performance. In 2010, however, it reverted to form and rejected us. This is probably a long-term opportunity as the area north of Downtown Dallas keeps growing.

District 109 (Yellow): This is a safely African American Democratic district.

District 110 (Red): This is a safely African American Democratic district.

District 111 (Pink): This is a safely African American Democratic district.

District 113 (Grey): This seat is a good opportunity for us. We pulled a 50-50 performance in 2008, and did about 5 points better than our statewide average here in 2010.



Houston
14 Democratic - 2 Opportunity
Total: 52 Democratic - 15 Opportunity

District 26 (Pink): McCain barely won this district (50.8%), a performance which Perry didn't even match in 2010 (50.7%). In 2008, most Democrats matched the Obama performance. In 2010, most Democrats plummeted to the high 30s and low 40s. I'm still optimistic about this district, though, so I'll rank it as a good opportunity for us.

District 27 (Blue): This district, however, is heavily African American. Democratic candidates in both years had a minimum of 65%.

District 131 (Orange): This district is safe for us and is heavily African American.

District 134 (Red): This district is a good opportunity for us. We won here in 2008 by slim margins (pulling majorities in some races). In 2010, we outperformed our statewide average by 3-5%.

District 137 (Yellow): This district is safely Democratic. We pulled at least 58% here in 2008 and won everything in 2010 with majorities.

District 139 (Yellow): Safely Democratic district where we pulled at least 65% in both years.

District 140 (Pink): Safely Democratic African American district where we pulled at least 70% in both years.

District 141 (Grey): Same as 140.

District 142 (Blue): Safely Democratic district where we pulled at least 75% in both years.

District 143 (Pink): Safely Democratic district dominated by Hispanics.

District 144 (Green): Same as 143.

District 145 (Yellow): Same as 143 and 144.

District 146 (Blue): Safely Democratic African American district where we pulled a least 80% in both years.

District 147 (Green): Same as 146.

District 148 (Orange): Safely Democratic district dominated by Hispanics.

District 149 (Green): This district, which has a large Asian population, was good to us in 2008. We narrowly lost in in 2010. I'm going to put this one as a Democratic district because 2010 was such an outlier.



Galveston
1 Democratic - 0 Opportunity
Total: 53 Democratic - 15 Opportunity

District 23 (Grey): Although Obama lost this district (he got only 47%), all other Democratic statewide candidates got a majority of the vote. In 2010, however, while Bill White received a bare majority, all other Democratic candidates got around 45% (ofcourse, this is typically 10-15% better than their statewide average). Craig Eiland (a wonderful Democrat) is safe in this seat and should be safe barring a tremendous surprise. Given the trend here, even when he leaves we'll be able to win.



Beaumont
1 Democratic - 0 Opportunity
Total: 54 Democratic - 15 Opportunity

District 22 (Pink): This district is the African American district based in Beaumont. Democratic candidates in both years received at least 60%. This is a district we should win under all circumstances.




54 Democratic - 15 Opportunity

Basically, I think that alot of the Democratic commentary on the maps is way too hopeful. The fact is that Democrats really do have a ceiling of about 70 districts in the state at the moment because areas that are rapidly turning Hispanic have been, because of the VRA, packed into already Hispanic areas. This limits our potential for growth. It's going to be until the next census until we can really compete in the state for control in the House and probably until 2030 until we can win the Senate.



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