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Leading Off:

MA-04: In case you missed it—though you probably didn't—in a major shocker, veteran Democratic Rep. Barney Frank announced his retirement on Monday. Frank in particular pointed to redistricting as one of his chief reasons for not seeking re-election. But while his district shed the Democratic stronghold of New Bedford and gained some conservative towns, the seat is still indisputably blue, so it's still a surprising catalyst, especially for someone who seemed to love his job as much as Frank did. In the end, though, Frank is 71 years old, and he also said he didn't want to endure the rigors of yet another campaign, which you certainly can't blame him for.

Immediately, of course, attention became focused on possible successors, and a ton of potential candidates have already surfaced, mostly on the Democratic side. Culled from a variety of sources (Roll Call | AP | Politico | CBS | Hotline), here's our most complete list, though note that some of these folks have expressed active interest while others are just in the "possible" category:

Democrats:

Cynthia Creem (state senator)
Deborah Goldberg (former Brookline Board of Selectmen Chair)
Alan Khazei (City Year co-founder)
Jesse Mermell (Brookline selectwoman)
Marc Pacheco (state senator)
Mike Rodrigues (state senator)
James Segel (former state representative & former Frank aide)
David Simas (former advisor to Gov. Deval Patrick)
Sam Sutter (Bristol County district attorney)
James Timilty (state senator)
James Vallee (state representative)

Republicans:

Jay Barrows (state representative)
Sean Bielat (2010 nominee)
Brian Herr (former Hopkinton selectman)

One Republican is already in the race: former state mental health commissioner Elizabeth Childs, who announced her candidacy before Frank said he'd retire. A few people have also said they won't run, including two Democrats, Newton Mayor Setti Warren and state Treasurer Steve Grossman, and one Republican, state Rep. Dan Winslow.

On a much more speculative level, there's also Joseph P. Kennedy III, son of ex-Rep. Joe Kennedy and grandson of Bobby Kennedy. Kennedy, a prosecutor in the region known as the Cape & Islands, was talked up as a possible successor to former Rep. Bill Delahunt after he announced his retirement last year, but he declined to run. Kennedy doesn't live in the new 4th and would pretty clearly have to carpetbag, but obviously his family name precedes him.

And here's another idea that's even more unlikely: Former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling, who has been active in Republican politics for many years. The problem with this idea is that it's pure fantasy (inside) baseball, and what's more, Schilling very publicly left Massachusetts because the state of Rhode Island promised greater support for his video game company.

One other interesting tidbit: Wondering who's next in line (at least on paper) to take over Frank's #1 slot on the Financial Services committee? Maxine Waters! (David Nir & David Jarman)

Senate:

AZ-Sen: As promised, here's our complete rundown of PPP's Arizona Senate numbers, which come as a pleasant surprise for Democrats. Click the link for our full post at Daily Kos Elections.

CA-Sen: Biting off more than you can chew? Autism activist Elizabeth Emken was last seen coming in fourth place (out of four candidates) in the 11th CD Republican primary in 2010, despite spending $300K of her own money on the race. Now she says she plans to seek the Republican nomination to take on Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Good luck!

NE-Sen: Republican pollster Magellan takes a look at the Nebraska Senate race and finds Dem Sen. Ben Nelson trailing AG Jon Bruning 45-39 and Treasurer Don Stenberg 41-40. Nelson leads state Sen. Deb Fischer 41-35. These numbers are pretty close to an early October poll from PPP, and if anything are a touch more optimistic for Nelson. But once again, being mired in the low 40s in a red state is not exactly good news for a Democratic incumbent.

Perhaps in response, Nelson put out his own internal showing him in much better shape, both compared to Magellan and compared to his own numbers from earlier this year. In the survey (from Hickman Analytics), Nelson leads Bruning 47-45, versus 49-43 Bruning in June and 52-43 Bruning in February. Nelson showed similar improvement against Stenberg (now at 49-43 in the incumbent's favor) and he also leads Fischer by a wide margin, 50-37. Also noteworthy is the fact that Nelson is releasing this poll at all, seeing as he recently stated he hadn't decided whether to seek re-election.

PA-Sen: The Senate portion of PPP's Pennsylvania poll finds Dem Sen. Bob Casey leading all the Republican halflings jabbing at his ankles by double digits in all cases, but Casey is at 47-49% in every matchup. We'll bring you a full post soon.

WI-Sen: A couple other Senators on the mavericky end of the Republican caucus (Tom Coburn, Rand Paul) had already gotten behind ex-Rep. Mark Neumann in the GOP Senate primary in Wisconsin, rather than not-conservative-enough establishment figure Tommy Thompson. But today, so too did the one whose endorsement carries some real monetary weight, both in terms of motivating movement-conservative small donors and the CfGs and AfPs of the world: Jim DeMint. DeMint is also backing right-wing underdogs in primaries in Texas (Ted Cruz) and Nebraska (Don Stenberg). (David Jarman)

UT-Sen: Hahah, man. I suppose I should care that the American Action Network (a major conservative front group) is running an ad on behalf of apostate Sen. Orrin Hatch for four weeks on Fox News, but really, I just can't get over the comically bombastic music that starts about 10 seconds in:

Gubernatorial:

MO-Gov, MO-02: It looks like teabagger darling Ed Martin may be considering yet another move. Martin, who narrowly lost to Dem Rep. Russ Carnahan last year, started off the cycle with a run for Senate. Once Republican Rep. Todd Akin got into the race, he dropped down to Akin's 2nd District seat… only to be joined by former state GOP chair Ann Wagner, who also bailed on a Senate run and has since been fundraising up a storm (thanks in large part to contributions by executives at her husband's company, Enterprise Rent-a-Car).

Now it seems that Martin might be eyeing the governor's race, which recently saw Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder depart and plastics magnate Dave Spence enter. Spence's conservative credentials were immediately called into question because a bank whose board he sat on accepted federal bailout money (bad enough), then refused to pay it back (worse). I mention all this because on Monday, Martin's political director sent around what was theoretically supposed to be an anonymous hit memo on Spence, particularly focusing on his TARP issues. Martin hasn't offered any comment yet, so this could be an aide going rogue, or it could be a particularly abrasive and ham-handed way of testing the waters.

WV-Gov: Republican businessman Bill Maloney, who narrowly lost the gubernatorial special election in West Virginia last month, had told us to stay tuned last week for a big announcement today... and his big announcement is that he's formed an exploratory committee to run for Governor again in 2012. As for the more interesting question of whether he's actually running against Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin again or not, he kicks the can once more, though: "In the coming weeks, I will make an announcement regarding my future plans." In the meantime, this'll give him the chance to raise money, as he'd previously said that if he ran, he'd want to actually fundraise this time instead of just putting the whole thing on his credit card like his special election run. (David Jarman)

House:

KY-06: Another dinky NRCC ad buy ($10K on cable), the second targeting Dem Rep. Ben Chandler this year. As with most of their recent little one-off gambits, the NRCC tries to link President Obama's jobs bill with the stimulus, which despite its salutary effects has long been very unpopular in the public imagination. This comparison hasn't seemed to seep into any broader media narratives, though, perhaps because the jobs act is pretty much a dead letter in Capitol Hill and therefore isn't the subject of much day-to-day discussion.

NV-01: Ruben Kihuen might be having a re-think today about what he's doing in the Dem primary for the open seat being left behind by Shelley Berkley. Ex-Rep. Dina Titus is out with an internal poll, via Anzalone Liszt, giving her a 77-11 lead over the state Senator, despite the fact that she used to represent a different district (the 3rd). I'm skeptical that she's so well-known by Dems in the parts of the new 1st that were also the old 1st (where her approval is 83-9), but if this is even remotely accurate, she's still starting out with a huge advantage here. This also doesn't give Harry Reid much of an argument for encouraging Titus to switch back to the swingier NV-03, which is what he'd apparently prefer. (David Jarman)

NY-10: As expected, lunatic NYC Councilman Charles Barron entered the race to unseat Rep. Ed Towns in the Democratic primary over the weekend. Just to show you how crazy Barron is, he called Muammar Gadaffi a "freedom fighter" and a "hero" after his death. But Barron has managed to survive in office by generally being on the right side of the issues (pro-union, anti-developer), and he's capable of tapping into the serious discontent running through this country (and this district) right now. I'm not saying he can win, but I do think his entry poses a serious problem for Assembly Hakeem Jeffries, the "reformer" choice who has been gearing up to challenge Towns for quite some time.

TX-27: Just to clarify something from the previous Morning Digest: It was ex-Rep. Solomon Ortiz's son, Solomon Ortiz, Jr., who tweeted about his possible interest in the redrawn 27th CD. The younger Ortiz was a former state representative who, like his father, also got swept out in last year's red tide, and I mistakenly got the two mixed up. But a separate (albeit very thin) report in the Corpus Christi Caller-Times suggested that the elder Ortiz might be interested in a comeback bid, noting that "Ortiz has said he might consider running depending on the maps." I wonder if this is some bad information, though, given that Ortiz, Sr. is 74 years old and presumably wouldn't want to get in the way of his son's political career.

TX-33: A couple more potential names have emerged in the new, court-drawn 33rd CD, a heavily Democratic district that is very racially balanced: 28% white, 27% black, and 40% Hispanic. Rev. Kyev Tatum, a community organizer who says he was at one point a Republican but now considers himself an "independent Democrat," is looking the race. However, it seems like he'd be competing for votes with the much better-known and better-connected state Rep. Marc Veasey (both are African American), so I'd be surprised if he got in, or had much of an impact if he did. Meanwhile, attorney and former Tarrant County Democratic Party chair Art Brender (who is white) says he's also considering the contest, while civil rights attorney Jason Smith says he won't run.

Redistricting Roundup:

FL Redistricting: The Florida state Senate just released its very long-awaited redistricting proposals, including a congressional plan. More information (including regional detail maps) at the link, and our first-cut analysis is below:

Florida state Senate redistricting proposal
(click for larger)
Some quick thoughts from jeffmd:
Basically, it seems short of some small cleaning up in the panhandle, Republican map-makers chose to ignore the Fair Districts amendments. For example, FL-03 is perhaps more of an unholy mess than before, and FL-11 is still split across Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Manatee counties. The brand-new FL-27 seems to be the Hispanic central Florida district.

In the southeast, things are as screwed up as always, with the FL-22 basically as ugly as before, with FL-19 and FL-22 (in addition to the majority-minority FL-23) crossing the Broward/Palm Beach County Lines. It really seems that the GOP used the Voting Rights Act as an excuse to skirt the preservation-of-county guideline, with both FL-17, FL-20, and FL-21 crossing the Broward/Miami-Dade County line (presumably since FL-17 is a VRA-protected majority-minority district). We may get a better chance at picking up FL-25—some of the Dem areas south of Miami proper (that are still heavily Hispanic) did get placed here. I wonder if this is their warning shot across beleaguered GOP freshman David Rivera's bow.

The new FL-26 looks like a GOP district while FL-27 would go to the Dems. FL-22 appears to have gotten a bit bluer, which may be enough to help unseat GOP freshman Allen West. But the bottom line is that a map like this makes litigation as inevitable as the morning sun. The only question is what things look like in their final form. Since this is just the Senate's proposal, presumably the state House intends to come up with a map of their own, which could mean some serious head-butting before any plan actually passes into law.

TX Redistricting: The Supreme Court is now Republicans' last best hope of avoiding the implementation of the court-drawn maps unveiled last week. As expected, Republican AG Greg Abbott filed with SCOTUS for a stay on the new maps. (So far, stays have only been requested for the legislative maps, though one for the Congressional map is "in the works.")

Also, check out the judge-on-judge smackdown from the opinion from the federal court in San Antonio that's the source of Abbott's request. (For the non-legally-inclined among you, this kind of diss of the dissent by the majority is highly unusual, except in cases of extreme hackery.)

The dissent’s comments come as some surprise to the Court, and are clearly a last-minute gathering of public comments that were submitted to the Court after the plan, to which the dissent agreed at the time, was released for comments and objections. Many of the dissent’s comments do not appear to be based on any kind of independent analysis, and the dissent simply accepts each of the objections without any apparent verification or confirmation.

(David Jarman)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 05:00:03 AM PST

  •  An article over the uncertainty of (5+ / 0-)

    the redistricting process in Arizona.

    Sinema said the unknowns about redistricting make it hard to assess fundraising opportunities and other calculations.

    Depending on where U.S. House district lines are drawn through central Phoenix, she could be in a district with a Democratic incumbent, one with roughly even margins between the parties and maybe no incumbent, and one dominated by Republicans, possibly with an incumbent.

    “Viability is dependent on redistricting,” Sinema said. “It seems prudent and reasonable to us to wait until the commission has done its job.”

    http://trivalleycentral.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 05:17:38 AM PST

  •  See who has filed in Texas (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir

    Daily: http://www.txdemocrats.org/...

    Real Time: On Twitter search for #txd2012

    Teh stoopidTM, it hurts. Buy smart, union-printed, USA-made, signs, stickers, swag for everyone: DemSign.com. Get your We are the 99% Yard Sign.

    by DemSign on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 05:52:49 AM PST

    •  TX-33state Rep. Marc Veasey & FW CC Kathleen Hicks (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      have apparently both announced.

      Battles loom for congressional seats, especially the newly drawn District 33. Under the court-drawn map, that district runs from Fort Worth's north side to Arlington's east side and includes several minority neighborhoods in north and southeast Fort Worth and east Arlington. It is one of four new congressional districts Texas picked up because of population gains.

      As state lawmakers drew it this year, the Republican-dominated territory stretched from Arlington through Wise and Parker counties, drawing several GOP candidates, such as former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams and Aledo retiree Chuck Bradley.

      Since the federal court released a different map last week, creating a minority-majority district, state Rep. Marc Veasey of Fort Worth and Fort Worth Councilwoman Kathleen Hicks, both Democrats, have been among those to announce their candidacy. Other Democrats -- including former Tarrant County Democratic Party Chairman Art Brender and Fort Worth Councilman Sal Espino -- are considering bids, as is the Rev. Kyev Tatum, who heads the Tarrant County chapter of the Southern Christian Leadership Conference. Republican Bradley has said he's still in the race

      Read more: http://www.star-telegram.com/...

      http://www.star-telegram.com/...

      Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

      by tom 47 on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 08:30:27 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  FL-12 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Its amazing given how populated central and south Florida are that FL-12 is as big as it is.  I know people love the coasts but still its Florida, with all those low taxes and nice weather.  Why don't tons of seniors want to live inland?

  •  How does appellate decision-writing work? (0+ / 0-)

    I'm not as interested in the smackdown aspect, but rather the fact that the majority decision referenced the dissent at all.  It's always the other way around, which led me to assume that once votes had been tallied, the majority got to write its decision first and then the minority would get the last word, as some karmic compensation for losing but also because a dissent by definition is dissenting vs. something else while a majority decision stands in isolation.  

    But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

    by Rich in PA on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 06:15:23 AM PST

    •  The opinions are all circulated (8+ / 0-)

      among the judges.  It's very common for a majority opinion to comment on a dissent.  

      “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

      by Paleo on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 06:27:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Exactly (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, andgarden

        It often goes both ways.

        Also, this isn't actually an appellate decision. The VRA is unusual in that cases are heard by three-judge district courts. This is a very rare thing, and I don't actually know the reason why the law was crafted that way, though perhaps the fear in the 1960s was that you didn't want to let a plaintiff get screwed by a rogue judge. (Not a baseless fear! Look at Jerry Smith!)

        What also makes this a little confusing is that one of the judges on the panel (the aforementioned Smith) is actually an appellate judge normally—he sits on the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals. But for whatever reason (this happens all the time), he's hearing a district court case. It's called "sitting by designation."

        In fact, I believe Rehnquist once sat by designation on a lower court... and was then overturned on appeal!

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 09:09:16 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Reading (5+ / 0-)

    the list of Dems who may run for the seat vacated by the retirement of Barney Frank, there are two I'm personally acquainted with.
    If I still lived down there, Sam Sutter would have my vigorous, boots-on-ground  support. That is a fine man.

    "That the people have a right to bear arms for the defence of themselves and the State ..."- Vermont Constitution Chapter 1, Article 16

    by kestrel9000 on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 06:33:52 AM PST

  •  Inolijt-- if you read this, (5+ / 0-)

    I thought you'd have fun knowing that some of your graphs made it into a German university presentation I just randomly read online--

    http://fss.plone.uni-giessen.de/...

  •  Insider Advantage has Newt in 1st in Iowa and SC (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...
    He was 3rd in Iowa, 2nd in SC in their last poll.

    Since most of the candidates seem to be running for VP (I can think of no other reason they prefer to attack the flavor of the month instead of attacking Romney) and Newt doesn't seem to have the "insider" support, I imagine he is going to be attacked relentlessly now. But isn't all of his dirty laundry already out there?  Are there really people who support him but don't know his negatives yet?  

    •  Momentum voters (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Odysseus, TofG

      Always an odd phenomenon, but sometimes people vote what they feel/hear "lately", and most of the media rhetoric about Newt has been his surge and positive stuff about his campaign, even if his beliefs and negatives are all well known.  

      Technically Newt hasn't done anything awful in the recent past (during the campaign), while we've seen some horrific new stuff from others (Perry Umm's, Cain harrassment, etc.)

      •  Cain's harrassment problems (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG

        The Cain harrassment problems pale in comparison to this new revelation about his extra-marital affair.  He has taken a huge dip in most polls (not all...whatzup with the repubs anyway???) but the worst poll he'll face is that one at home, methinks.  How can he allow this to continue.  

        I'm betting this woman that just came out about the affair is playing some "prevent defense" (if you're a B'Ball fan you know what that means :-).  Better to get it out before someone else tells the story.  

        Cain is toast.  Let's gear up for a Newt v Obama war.

        - If you don't like gay marriage, blame straight people. They're the ones who keep having gay babies.

        by r2did2 on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 07:10:59 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  If that's true (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG, James Allen
          The Cain harrassment problems pale in comparison to this new revelation about his extra-marital affair.

          It shows the warped sensibility of Republican voters. An affair is consensual; sexual harassment is not.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 09:46:36 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I think the logic might be (6+ / 0-)

      Romney always gets 25-30, so why fight over those voters? Better to compete with the 70%+ of voters who are supporting someone else or undecided.

  •  NC-Gov Perdue's campaign aides indicted (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY
    A Wake County grand jury Monday handed down indictments alleging that a top aide to Gov. Bev Perdue's 2008 campaign schemed to pay a staff member $32,000 for work that was kept off the books in violation of state election laws.

    Peter Reichard, 54, a Greensboro businessman who served as the Perdue campaign's finance director, was charged with obstruction of justice. The former campaign staffer and a campaign donor were also charged.

    Wake County District Attorney Colon Willoughby said that Perdue, a former lieutenant governor and state lawmaker, is not a target of the probe.

    http://www.newsobserver.com/...

    Despite not being a target of the investigation, this surely looks bad for Perdue, who has polled poorly for 3 years.

    NC Democrats may stand a better chance of holding the Governor's office in 2012 if Perdue would step aside - not that there has been any indication she would.

    "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by bear83 on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 06:53:25 AM PST

    •  Leading NC Dem calls for Perdue to step aside (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drachaCRO, MichaelNY

      I see a primary challenge coming together. Rep Bill Faison, D-Orange:

      “You have all these indictments. And the focus of the governor’s office ought to be on the people and ought to be dealing with the economic crisis we got,” Faison said.

      “Clearly, the DA is saying that they’re still investigating this matter, so it’s not over. Clearly, the governor’s office is focused on those investigations and the consequences of them, and the focus ought to be on the people," he said.

      "So I think, ultimately, Gov. Perdue will do the right thing and decide not to run. I don’t believe you’ll ever see her file,” Faison said.

      Is he still interested in running for her job?

      “Well, I certainly think we need strong leadership at the top of the ticket, and I’m certainly giving consideration to it. That’s a decision for some time in the future.”


      http://www.wral.com/...

      "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

      by bear83 on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 10:15:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  A state representative.... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        If she does step aside how about a statewide official? Maybe Elaine Marshall or Janet Cowell?

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 10:42:45 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The Dem bench is deep in NC (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          There are plenty of potential candidates. I think most would hesitate to challenge the sitting Governor, unfortunately.

          "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

          by bear83 on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 12:18:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  I think the Florida map (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, askew, MichaelNY

    will be drawn by the Florida Supreme Court when things are said and done. There are only 2 of 7 judges that are right wingers (Polston, Canady), three of the judges joined (Pariente, Quice, Lewis) were part of the 4-3 majority from Gore v. Harris in 2000. They all face retention elections in 2012 as well. The remaing two (Labarga, Lewis) are both Crist appointees that the right went after in their 2010 retention elections.

    My question is whether they use a scalpel or a meat cleaver. Do they thinker with what the legislature passes, or do they completely start over? Outside of the minority seats, which they will sort out, there are big fair district issues I see at minimum in the Orlando area, Tampa-St. Pete, and SE Florida. This will be interesting at the court level, but I like our chances given the Court makeup.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 06:54:00 AM PST

  •  Hey, MA, get a woman in there. More women, more (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    women, more women.

  •  A Barron win in NY-10 would be (0+ / 0-)

    a wet dream come to life -- for the Republicans! He is NOT on the right side of most issues, he has made numerous statements that can only be interpreted as anti-Semitic, and is so popular on the NY City Council that when he ran for Council Speaker he got one vote -- his own. He was stripped of his Council committee chairmanship, again getting one vote -- his own. He isn't really even a Democrat -- he ran for governor in 2010 on a minor party line against the Democratic nominee, Andrew Cuomo.  

    Do not be fooled by his marketing of himself as a Progressive. He is as Progressive as Ron Paul! If he wins the Democratic Primary I will make a contribution to anyone else on the ballot running against him -- even a teabagger Republican -- just to keep such an embarrassment from being elected as a Democrat.

    •  I doubt he will win (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      and you'd be wasting your money anyway. A Republican can't win a majority-black district unless there's low turnout and the Democrat is convicted of a major crime (and in this district, probably not even then)

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 06:59:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I didn't mean to suggest Barron is right. The guy is a maniac, like I said! Just that you always have to wonder how someone like that gets into office and stays in office. And for him the answer seems to be staying on labor's good side.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 09:15:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Charles Barron (0+ / 0-)

        I seriously object to calling people with whom you disagree "lunatics." I will support almost every allegation made against him here, but calling him a lunatic or a maniac just shows class and race bias.

        you always have to wonder how someone like that gets into office and stays in office
        .

        He, like Marion Barry and  Sharpe James of Newark, and various other urban politicians, including the old Sharpton, before the new Sharpton makeover,  and not a few clergymen, represents a portion of the working-class black constituency, and they know it. This is the group that gets sold out by every New Urban Black leader, including Corey Booker and the mayor of Washington, people who get persuaded that gentrification is the right way to go and that therefore poor black people are the wrong focus of attention.
        How can you presume to comment on politics without knowing a damn thing about urban black constituencies?

        •  Uh (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, jncca
          calling him a lunatic or a maniac just shows class and race bias.

          What?

          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 12:10:54 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  In my book (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoosierD42, MichaelNY, charliehall2

          Anyone who calls Qadafi a "freedom fighter" and a "hero" is a lunatic.

          I also like how because I disagree with you, you've decided that I don't "know[] a damn thing about urban black constituencies." I find that barking at someone that they're an ignorant idiot is not a sign of good faith that you want to offer constructive criticism. If in fact you do, I'm always willing to hear it, but not in the context of shabby personal insults.

          If not, well, quite a few people seem to enjoy my political commentary and have for years. But if it's not to your liking, there are plenty of other writers on this site for you to enjoy. You could also write about this race yourself! You can cross-post diaries to the Daily Kos Elections sidebar by including the tag "DK Elections."

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 07:02:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Sorry, but anyone who praises Qadafi (0+ / 0-)

          is either an ignoramus, or evil. The man had absolutely no redeeming qualities and the world is better off now that he is gone.

  •  PA-SEN (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, David Nir, James Allen

    St. Sen. Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi now considering:

    Pa. Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi is considering a big against U.S. Senator Bob Casey, the Delaware County Republican told PoliticsPA Monday night.

    “I have been approached by a number of people about the possibility of running for U.S. Senate,” Pileggi said in a statement relayed by a spokesperson.

    “I’m flattered by the question, and I have deep concerns about the direction our nation is taking in many areas, including historically high levels of unemployment, the spiraling national debt, and the federal government’s attempt to take over health care. I have made no decision but will continue to listen on how I can best serve the Commonwealth and the Country.”

    Multiple D.C. sources say Pileggi has already met with national Republicans to discuss a bid, along with party leaders in Harrisburg and southeast Pennsylvania.

  •  I'm a confident LGBT advocate here (0+ / 0-)

    With Barney Frank retiring, it seems there's some speculation that this Frank's district could fall to someone that might not be as big an advocate for the LGBT cause as Frank was.  Well, that's very possible, of course, but I am confident that it won't fall to a republican.  This district (or some semblance thereof) has been represented by a democrat since 1947.  That's very telling.  Hopefully whichever candidate (democrat, of course) does finally replace Frank will be just as much an advocate for gay rights as Frank was.  I'm thinkin' he/she will be.

    Hopefully the democratic machine in that district (and state) will be heavily involved in making sure this happens.  Sure, I have a specific reason for wanting gay rights (especially gay marriage) to continue to go forward.  Shouldn't everyone?

    - If you don't like gay marriage, blame straight people. They're the ones who keep having gay babies.

    by r2did2 on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 07:03:44 AM PST

    •  I Wouldn't Fret Too Much (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, bythesea, MichaelNY, jncca

      I suppose Frank's replacement will likely be someone with considerably less personal stake in the LGBT cause, but I think that person, whoever he or she is, will probably be similarly supportive when it comes time to cast votes.

      It's hard to imagine a conserva-Dem of the Stephen Lynch variety emerging as the Democratic nominee here, as what's left of their power base mostly isn't here. Newton and Brookline are progressive powerhouses, and Needham and Sharon are also helpful. That's where the action is in the Democratic primary.  Fall River, Taunton, and especially the strip-mall towns in the southern part of the district aren't as liberal. (Fall River doesn't generally vote Republican for anything, of course, but it's more of a blue-collar town.)  

      The Republican base is in the Attleboro-to-Dover part of the district. There aren't enough of them to flip this seat.

      If Dems lose this district, there are much bigger things to worry about.

      Stuck Between Stations : Thoughts from a bottomless pool of useless information.

      by Answer Guy on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 07:42:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The new re-mapped district has ~325k constituents. (0+ / 0-)
      •  The 325K New Faces (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I imagine that's a big reason why Frank walked away.

        It's not so much that they don't know his name - none of the new towns, except maybe Milford, are especially far away from his current turf, and he's pretty famous statewide - but they don't necessarily know about his constituent service operation.

        His district isn't as blue as it had been, mostly because New Bedford is gone, and that meant he'd probably have to work a little harder in general elections than he had been used to, prior to the Republican wave year 2010.

        Stuck Between Stations : Thoughts from a bottomless pool of useless information.

        by Answer Guy on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 11:15:14 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Actually (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Margaret Heckler represented a very similar district and was re-elected as late as 1980. (of course, that was before Newton and Brookline were added)

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 08:49:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  PA-Leg Specials (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, bythesea, MichaelNY, TofG

    A few notes:

    1.  Learned at a CLE yesterday: if they hold the specials in March, that poses a problem for the general primary on April 24, 2012, insofar as the machines apparently have to be impounded for 30 days post-election and thus won't be available.  

    2. Rep. Jewell Williams, vacating his seat to serve as Sheriff of Philadelphia, would like his 23-year-old daughter Jewel to replace him.  She is a processing specialist for the Parking Authority; the nominee gets chosen by the ward leaders.

    3.  Rep. Dennis O'Brien, vacating his NE Philly seat to join Phila City Council, will have his seat filled in a special by the voters of York County, which is where his seat is moving post-redistricting.

  •  I live in MA-04 and know a number of 'candidates' (7+ / 0-)

    I live in MA-04 and know a number of the Brookline/Newton area candidates.

    Cynthia Creem seems unlikely to run.  She's great on some issues to be sure, but she graduated from college in 1964, making her just a few years younger than Congressman Frank.

    Deb Goldberg is a possibility.  She's a former BOS Chair, a current Town Meeting Member, and recently ran and lost in the Dem primary for the Lt Governor spot, which Tim Murray won to run alongside Governor Deval Patrick.  She's kept well connected with the state party, and has financial upside.

    Alan Khazei may run, but he may .  He ran in the Dem primary for Senator Kennedy's vacancy, and lost to AG Coakley.  He ran again for the 2012 senate seat in the primary, but dropped out at the end of October, never quite getting traction.  If he runs a third time within three years, he might run into voter and donor fatigue.  I'm not sure he'll do it.

    Jesse Mermell was elected to Select(wo)man of Brookline in her 20s, believed to be the youngest person elected to the BOS in Brookline.  She climbed the ranks locally -- won a seat at Town Meeting, was elected Library Trustee, chaired the local progressive organization (Brookline PAX), and then ran for Selectman.  She lost the first time she ran in a complicated four(?) person race, but ran a year later and won, and has since won reelection.  She's worked for non-profits throughout her professional career, including FairTest, Planned Parenthood, and the MA Association for the Blind.  On the issues, she's fabulous -- progressive on issues of the environment, labor, education, transportation, civil rights, woman's rights, etc.  Unlike many folks in Brookline (a leafy streetcar suburb of Boston) she lives in a tiny condo, as one doesn't get wealthy working for non-profits.  She's young, dynamic, smart, empathetic, and politically savvy.  I don't know if she'll be able to raise the funds to run, but I do know that she's definitely got the political philosophy and the chutzpah to be a great Congresswoman.

    Sam Sutter (Bristol County AG) has already declared; I don't know a thing about him one way or the other, as I don't live in Bristol County.

    There are a number of other folks who may run (Pacheco, Rodrigues, Segel, Simas, Timilty, Vallee) -- I've heard good things about some of them, no bad things about any of 'em.  Bottom line: I don't know any of those folks well, as they're not from the same part of MA-04 as I am or aren't active in local politics.

    •  Thanks for the rundown (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Hard to believe that Creem is close in age to Frank. She looks younger.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 08:52:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks for this rundown (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Mermell sounds great, but your concerns about her ability to compete seem reasonable.

      As for Sutter, there was some crap on Twitter saying he'd entered, but I just don't think that's accurate. Check out the quote in the AP piece I linked:

      Bristol District Attorney Sam Sutter, who lives in Fall River, a portion of which is included in the new congressional district, appeared to leave open the door for a possible run.

      Sutter issued a written statement praising Frank, adding "the last thing I would want to do today is insert myself into this story about Congressman Frank's career."

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 09:21:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NV-01 (5+ / 0-)

    Dina has always lived in CD1 (she never lived in CD3), her state senate district was largely in CD1 (and she was the Minority Leader), and she ran for governor in 2006.

    So, no reason to be skeptical of voters in CD1 knowing who she is.

  •  Progressives listen to Barney Frank's comments (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    as there is a lesson in this statement for those of you who do not like compromise.

    " I accept the fact that there are a lot of people in the country who would like us to work together," ...'Unfortunately none of them appear to have phones or e-mail because nobody ever hears from them about specifics. When an issue comes up, anybody's who's trying to compromises only hears.' Don't give in, don't back off'.

  •  MO-Gov (0+ / 0-)

    Are you sure that plastics magnate Dave Spence' refusal to pay back Federal bailout money makes his case "worse" for Republican primary voters? I think that refusal adds a touch of heroic defiance to his resume. At least to that extent he wasn't cooperating with the Feds. In the general, it might be a different story.

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