Sorry, Mitt: The fall of Cain is boosting Newt (Phelan Ebenhack & Chris Keane/Reuters)
PPP's Tom Jensen:
If Herman Cain really ends up dropping out of the race Gingrich's surge should continue in the next few weeks, unless/until something starts happening to erode his popularity. Why? Because Cain's supporters absolutely love Gingrich. And they absolutely hate Mitt Romney.
Our last national survey found that Gingrich's favorability with Cain voters was 73/21. Meanwhile Romney's was 33/55. That's the same basic trend we've seen in every Republican primary poll we've done in the month of November. On average in 7 polls we've done this month Gingrich's favorability with Cain voters is 69/22. Romney's average is 31/57. In other words Gingrich's net favorability is 73 points better with Cain supporters than Romney's.
And that translates into real votes:
On average across six polls we've asked a second choice question on this month 37% of Cain voters pick Gingrich to only 13% for Romney. In fact Romney isn't any more likely to be the second choice of Cain supporters than Michele Bachmann (14%) or Rick Perry (12%).
Although she didn't go into detail, Ann Selzer, the pollster behind the Iowa Poll, says much the same thing is true in Iowa, where Newt Gingrich would get the biggest boost, followed by Rick Perry.
None of this is that big of a surprise. It's been clear for quite some time now that Mitt Romney has a polling ceiling—and that he hasn't figured out how to move past it. That doesn't necessarily mean he's doomed. But it does mean his Not Romney problem, illustrated in the charts below, is real.