Sam Rohrer, GOP frontrunner?
Public Policy Polling (PDF). 11/17-20. Pennsylvania voters. MoE ±4.4% (
July results):
Bob Casey (D-inc): 47
Sam Rohrer (R): 36
Undecided: 16
Bob Casey (D-inc): 47
Steve Welch (R): 33
Undecided: 20
Bob Casey (D-inc): 48
Tom Smith (R): 32
Undecided: 20
Bob Casey (D-inc): 49 (48)
Rick Santorum (R): 39 (39)
Undecided: 11 (13)
Bob Casey (D-inc): 49
Tim Burns (R): 34
Undecided: 17
This is PPP's fourth Pennsylvania Senate poll this year, and they've all shown a remarkably consistent picture. Whether you look at January, April, July, or today, you'll see that Sen. Bob Casey remains in a tight band between 47 and 51 percent against all comers. And if you exclude Rick Santorum (who of course isn't running), Casey's actual and potential opponents have trailed widely, ranging from 27 to 36 percent. Naturally, this is a product of the GOP field's low name recognition, but that's sort of the point: None of these guys has the kind of profile Casey did when he first started going after Santorum six years ago.
That 36 percent high-water mark, though, came from this newest poll, and it belongs to former state Rep. Sam Rohrer. You may recall that Rohrer led the GOP primary portion of this survey, albeit with just 25 percent in a fractured field. (Tim Burns was at second with 15 percent.) While Tom is undoubtedly right that this race will get closer, the fact that Rohrer is nominally in the pole position is a real problem for Republicans. He's an out-and-proud tea partier who ran for governor last year, presenting himself as the "true conservative" alternative to Tom Corbett in the Republican primary. Rohrer got crushed, 69-31, but this time out, the establishment so far hasn't picked their man (mostly because they just don't have any viable contenders). If they can't stop a guy like Rohrer, the PA GOP could find itself in something of a Sharron Angle/Christine O'Donnell-type situation next year.
Of course, it's not like they have an alternative like Mike Castle, since the state's entire congressional delegation has either said "no" or has just mumbled into their coffee mugs. But even though Casey an odds-on favorite to win reelection, I have to imagine Republicans would have a harder time making the race competitive with a guy like Rohrer rather than, say, a mostly generic businessman like Burns. One side-note is that this poll didn't test state Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi, whose interest in the race only publicly surfaced the other day. He may yet present a more formidable challenge than the rest of this field.
One final note on the field: Tom Smith, a former coal company owner who is almost entirely unknown, somehow managed to snag the endorsements of a couple of legislators from outside his own turf, adding to the half-dozen local lawmakers who had already given him their backing. I'm not saying these gets necessarily mean much, but for a guy with no political background, Smith seems to be making some inroads. He only scored 2 percent in the primary poll, though, so he has a long way to go.