Previously on The Fight To Keep It Blue: IL-12, Ann Callis (last month's prediction poll winner as to who will win the primary) was considered a favorite to be running for Jerry Costello's seat, but she decided against running for the seat, but will instead focus on being retained for Circuit Judge. Jay Hoffman, who was briefly considering switching over to this district, decided to run in the Illinois State House... this time to replace Tom Holbrook in the 113th Legislative District.
We found out that Granite Citian Kenneth Wiezer is basically a Costello clone, being socially conservative and economically populist.
Chris Miller from Carbondale, arguably the most progressive candidate in the Democratic Primary, is running on an economy and ending the war platform. Scott AFB is in the district, so he could get a decent amount votes in the Primary.
The candidate that the Democratic establishments are backing is former St. Clair County schools superintendent Brad Harriman. I'm not sure what his stances on the issues are yet.
On the GOP side, 2010 nominee for Lt. Gov Jason Plummer is the consensus favorite to win the Primary. A very long shot candidate named Joe Cervantez from Carterville is running.
Candidates:
Democratic:
Brad Harriman
Chris Miller
Kenneth Wiezer
Republican:
Joe Cervantez
Rodger Cook
Theresa Kormos
Teri Davis Newman
Jason Plummer
Green:
Rodger Jennings?
Libertarian:
?
Dropouts from last update:
Democratic: Ann Callis
Republican: Mike Bost
Can we keep it Blue past 2012?
Match-up ratings and likely chances of winning their parties' primaries:
Wiezer v. Cevantez: Safe D
Wiezer v. Cook: Likely D
Wiezer v. Kormos: Safe D
Wiezer v. Newman: Safe D
Wiezer v. Plummer: Tossup
Miller v. Cervantez: Safe D
Miller v. Cook: Likely D
Miller v. Kormos: Safe D
Miller v. Newman: Safe D
Miller v. Plummer: Tossup
Harriman v. Cervantez: Safe D
Harriman v. Cook: Likely D
Harriman v. Kormos: Safe D
Harriman v. Newman: Safe D
Harriman v. Plummer: Lean D
Chances of winning the Primaries:
Dems:
Harriman: 85%
Miller: 8%
Wiezer: 7%
GOP:
Plummer: 68%
Cook: 23%
Newman: 7%
Kormos: 1.7%
Cervantez: .3%
Odds of keeping IL-12 Democratic? 83.2%