Elizabeth Warren has taken a modest 4 point lead over Wall Street sycophant Scott Brown in the race to win back the people's seat in Massachusetts.
Just 37 percent of Massachusetts adults approve of the job Sen. Brown is doing while 49 percent disapprove.
These numbers could mean trouble for Scott Brown," Schaffner says. "The race is a dead heat and his support is well under 50 percent, which usually means difficulty for an incumbent, especially this far out from Election Day.
Wonderful news for freedom loving Americans everywhere.
More breakdown from the poll after the squiggly.
Having an incumbent with a 37/49 approval rating and only lodging 39% head-to-head with a named challenger shows that the incumbent is in serious trouble, especially since the undecideds generally break towards the challenger.
That's the good news. The less good news is the potential flaws with the polling:
1. The poll was performed by youguv (not the most reliable pollster), although I couldn't figure out if it was an internet poll (not reliable) or a telephone poll (more reliable).
2. The poll was of 500 adults (not registered voters), however, as pointed out in the comments, when you look at the specifics of the poll, the Warren v. Brown matchup was based on 433 registered voters, so this is not an issue afterall.
Also potentially problematic is that Brown continues to lead amongst Independent voters by 18% (although with the massive Democratic registration advantage over Publicans, he will likely need to win Indys by closer to 25% if he is going to pull this out).
Here is the link to the polling methodology and breakdown for the numbers people to sift through.
More analysis when time permits, just wanted to help brighten everyone's Thursday...