You have to be careful with internet polls. They don't use random samples to stand in for the universe of voters, they use opt-in panels. (For those who want more details of what that means, Mark Blumenthal wrote an easy read pair of articles
here and
here for
National Journal back in 2009 explaining that while internet polls have not fully established themselves, traditional polls also miss the mark more often than we acknowledge.) So, all caveats apply, including the strong advice to look for trends and corroboration within the poll and elsewhere.
That being said, YouGov in particular is an established internet polling firm that is routinely cited by media and polling experts (here's Nate Silver's Pollster Ratings v4.0 from the old fivethirtyeight.com site, with You Gov ranking ahead of Fox and Quinnipiac to name some well known pollsters).
They've run a very interesting MA poll sponsored by University of Massachusetts Amherst showing Elizabeth Warren running very well against Republican Scott Brown:
A political poll conducted by the University of Massachusetts Amherst finds that Elizabeth Warren, the leading Democrat in the field of challengers to incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, is running even or perhaps ahead of Brown in a potential matchup next fall.
Warren leads Brown by 4 points among registered voters in the UMass Amherst Poll, 43 percent to 39 percent, the difference being within the 4.4 percent margin of error, say UMass Amherst political scientists Brian Schaffner and Ray La Raja. The poll finds Warren is drawing strong support from women, middle-to-low income residents and younger voters. Brown maintains a large lead among Independent voters while Warren is getting overwhelming support from Democratic voters in Massachusetts.
"These numbers could mean trouble for Scott Brown," Schaffner says. "The race is a dead heat and his support is well under 50 percent, which usually means difficulty for an incumbent, especially this far out from Election Day."
For context, recent academic polls also showed a tight race. Western New England University had Brown with a 5 point lead at 47-42 (MoE of 4.5) at the end of September, and in mid-September UMass Lowell/Boston Herald had Brown 41-38 with a MoE of 3.8. This looks to be a tight race assuming Warren is the nominee.
Massachusetts is a very blue state, but it is always interesting to look at where the indies are:
A key group in the election will be Independent voters. Here, Brown’s lead remains substantial with Independents favoring him by 18 points, 49 percent to 31 percent However, 15 percent of Independents remain undecided, which means there is substantial room for change.
Schaffner says, "Because of the advantage Democrats hold in this state, Republicans must dominate the independent vote to win. Brown’s 18-point edge among Independents is impressive and similar to what Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker enjoyed in 2010, but that edge was not large enough to push Baker to victor.
Numbers like these suggest that for Elizabeth Warren, "we are the 99%" is
more than a slogan. Warren is building a career in politics walking the walk and not just talking the talk (which, by the way, is now
part of the cultural lexicon).
As we move toward, keep an eye on those indie numbers in Massachusetts and elsewhere. It'll tell us a lot about the election—and a lot about ourselves.
Click here to donate to her campaign.