I really don't know if he can. He may not have too considering all the blue states he won in 2008. But to expect this to happen again is simply not possible. I see the following states as either toss ups, or having the chance to turn red in 2012. Electoral votes in parenthesis.
Florida (29)
Ohio, (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)
Indiana (11)
Nevada (6)
Colorado (9)
New Mexico (5)
New Hampshire (4)
That's 130 electoral votes that in my opinion, could be up for grabs. Knowing that Obama will not win all those states, he might have to look at a red state that McCain won in 2008, or will he hold on to the majority of those states, so he wouldn't need to win a red state?? What red states could he possibly pick up next year??