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Well, I saw the Florida Congressional map released in the State Senate committee.  At first blush, it was horrendous as it bends over backwards to keep all three Hispanic-majority seats as Republican as possible, makes Corinne Brown's district worse, still uses extensions from FL-11 to help Bill Young and Vern Buchanan, and keeps FL-22 a mess.  It also runs afoul of a few of the key tenets of the recently-passed Amendment 6 in many places.  On second blush, I saw that it actually does some good for Dems.  It gives Dems the new FL-27 (59% Obama), which is based in Osceola County, and it relaxes the Shawmander in FL-22 (which was drawn for E. Clay Shaw in 2002 to protect him from the rapid influx of New Yorker retirees), moving that district from 52% Obama to 55% Obama.  It also makes FL-16 and FL-25 a few points more Dem, but it would be hard for Dems to reap benefits there unless David Rivera is again the nominee in FL-25 and Dems find something to bog down Tom Rooney in FL-16.  Finally, this committee map undoes the anti-Boyd gerrymander in FL-2, moving it 4 points more Dem.  FtLaudyDem has a great diary up on who is running and how good Dem odds are in winning this back should FL-2 be unchanged between now and the final map.

Despite this mixed bag, I decided to draw a fair map of Florida's 27 Congressional ditricts for the next decade, approximating what a court would do.  It has a few flaws, but I like it overall.

More below the fold.

Note: The partisan data in Dave's Redistricting App is the 2008 two-party Presidential election vote and excludes third-party votes.  This is why for all the partisan numbers, the Obama and McCain numbers add up to exactly 100%.  Also, all deviations from ideal population are less than the absolute value of +/- 1000.

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Let's start with the panhandle, arguably the only place where State Senate Republicans obeyed the Fair Districts Amendments to a "t".

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FL-1 (blue): Rep. Jeff Miller (R)
32.4%O/67.6%M
Until 1994, this region of Florida elected very conservative, but strongly pro-MIC Dixiecrats. Now, the only remaining Democratic part of this district is Pensacola.  The last Democrat representing this district was Earl Hutto, who retired in 1994.  It was then represented by Joe Scarborough himself, which is odd considering that Joe was generally anti-pork and this district relies heavily on military pork.  Joe Scarborough resigned in 1999 for family reasons and is now on MSNBC.
SAFE R

FL-2 (green): Rep. Steve Southerland (R)
47.8%O/52.2%M
This district was represented by Allen Boyd until last year, who grievously under-perfomed in the primary and in the general.  The district that appeared in the State Senate committee did basically what I did (except I cut up Taylor County and united Madison County) by reuniting all of Leon and Jefferson County into FL-2 and cutting off the finger into conservative Walton and Okaloosa County.  Last November, Alex Sink won the majority of the vote of this district as she lost statewide to our favorite medicare thief, Rick Scott.  Who can run here?  FtLaudyDem highly recommended State Rep. Leonard Bembry (D-Madison), who is already running.  In order to win this district, it is important that Democrats nominate a relatively conservative, anti-gun control blue dog in order to hold counties like Wakulla where Democrats still are very strong but never vote for a Democrat who supports gun control.  Bembry fits the bill.  Boyd isn't coming back and that's probably for the best.
TOSS UP

Now, let's move to the non-panhandle part of northern Florida.

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FL-3 (dark magenta): Rep. Corinne Brown (D)
52.6%O/47.4%M (VAP: 30.7% Black)
One look at this and you see why Corinne Brown is suing against the Fair Districts Amendments.  She'll have to lift a finger to run here.  Now, this district may be a little risque as her current district is plurality black, but I don't think that's covered by the VRA under current jurisprudence.  Also, this region of Florida is not covered by Section 5 of the VRA either, so it's much easier to get away with retrogression.  FL-3 is now an urban Jacksonville district.  Jacksonville, once a bastion for Dixiecrats, has been quite Republican since Mayor Ed Austin switched to the GOP in 1995.  However, Jacksonville has drifted towards the Democrats for years.  It then made history earlier this year by electing Democrat Alvin Brown as its mayor.  This district, while difficult, should be a reliable hold for Democrats in neutral years or better, just not for Corinne Brown unless she is a good Congressman.
TOSSUP/TILT D

FL-4 (red): Rep. Ander Crenshaw (R)
30.4%O/69.6%M
This district is now the most conservative in the state.
SAFE R

FL-5 (gold): Rep. Rich Nugent (R)
43.5%O/56.5%O
This district changes very little.  The Villages is here.
LIKELY R

FL-6 (teal): Rep. Cliff Stearns (R)
49.7%O/50.3%M
Cliff Stearns will now have to work to get re-elected here as Gainesville, Ocala, and Platka are whole again.
LEAN R

FL-7 (dark grey): Rep. John Mica (R)
47.5%O/52.5%M
Mica doesn't live here, but he represents most of it.  This district moves a few points more Democratic, but will be hard to win unless boogeyman John Thrasher beats Mica in the primary.
LIKELY R with Mica, LEAN R otherwise

FL-26 (black): OPEN
48.2%O/51.8%M
This district contains Sanford and Mica's home of Winter Springs.  He could run here, I suppose.
LEAN R

FL-8 (slate blue): Rep. Dan Webster (R)
64.5%O/35.5%M
This district compacts greatly and is now entirely in Orange County.  It is also only plurality white now.  The perfect place for Val Demmings or Alan Grayson (though he should forever put behind him the "Taliban Dan" thing).
LIKELY D for Grayson, SAFE D for anyone else

Now for the Tampa region.

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FL-9 (cyan): Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R)
48.8%O/51.2%M
This district changes little, but gets neater.
LEAN R/LIKELY R

FL-10 (deep pink): Rep. Bill Young (R)
56.4%O/43.6%M
Bill Young will most likely be forced into retirement because of this.  St. Petersburg is finally made whole again.
LEAN D

FL-11 (chartreuse): Rep. Kathy Castor (D)
61.8%O/38.2%M
This Tampa-based district becomes much, much cleaner.  It's less D, but still safe for Castor.
LIKELY D

FL-12 (cornflower blue): Rep. Dennis Ross (R)
44.8%O/55.2%M
This district becomes more Republican.
LIKELY R

Let's move to a larger view of central Florida.

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FL-24 (indigo): Rep. Sandy Adams (R)
47.3%O/52.7%M
The space coast district stays pretty much the same, but is now better drawn.  Adams is a weak incumbent, but it's still an uphill battle.
LEAN R

FL-27 (spring green): OPEN
50.3%O/49.7%M
This is the other new district and takes in all of Osceola County and a bunch of Orlando suburbs.  Could Webster run here if not in FL-8?
TOSSUP/TILT R

FL-15 (dark orange): Rep. Bill Posey (R)
48.9%O/51.1%M
Bill Posey will have to lift a finger to keep this seat, but it should be okay for him in most years.
LEAN R

FL-16 (lime): Rep. Tom Rooney (R)
45.0%O/55.0%M
Tom Rooney lives in Palm Beach County, which is no longer in this district whatsoever.  I guess he wouldn't run here.
LIKELY R

Now for the south and southwest coast of Florida.

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FL-13 (salmon): Rep. Vern Buchanan (R)
47.4%O/52.6%M
This district has to crawl southward some, but stays the same in its leanings.
LEAN R if open/LIKELY R for now

FL-14 (olive): Rep. Connie Mack (R)
43.5%O/56.5%M
This district now takes in the Keys and part of the Everglades.
LIKELY R

Now for the Miami-Dade region.

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FL-25 (pale violet red): Rep. David Rivera (R)
55.9%O/44.1%M (VAP: 66.4% Hispanic)
The massively corrupt David Rivera is doomed either way, but now it's to a Democrat as this district picks up a lot of non-Cuban Hispanics.
LEAN D/LIKELY D with Rivera

FL-18 (yellow): Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)
44.7%O/55.3%M (VAP: 78.5% Hispanic)
This district contains a lot of Miami's Cuban-American population.
LIKELY R if open

FL-21 (maroon): Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
51.1%O/48.9%M (VAP: 73.8% Hispanic)
This district has the rest of the Cuban-American community, but also some non-Cubans as well.  It goes from a district Obama narrowly lost to one he narrowly won.
LEAN R

FL-17 (dark slate blue): Rep. Frederica Wilson (D)
87.2%O/12.8%M (VAP: 52.6% black)
This district is about the same as it is now.  No real changes for the district of the hat fanatic of North Miami.
Photobucket
SAFE D

FL-20 (pink): Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D)
59.2%O/40.8%M
This district is now t-shaped and has more of Ft. Lauderdale in it.  Slightly less Dem now, but should be no problem.
LIKELY D

Finally, we go to the Broward and Palm Beach region.

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FL-23 (aquamarine): Rep. Alcee Hastings (D)
81.2%O/18.8%M (VAP: 46.4% black; Total Pop.: 50.1% black)
This was very difficult to do.  I made the district less ugly and manufactured it into earmuffs.  However, it is no longer black-majority of the voting age population.  I think it could have legal standing, but it may get a lawsuit over it.
SAFE D

FL-19 (yellow-green): Rep. Ted Deutch (D)
63.1%O/36.9%M
This district becomes far less ugly and is now a compact stretch of land ranging from Royal Palm Beach to Coral Springs.

FL-22 (sienna): Rep. Allen West (R)
55.4%O/44.6%M
The disgraced ex-officer in Congress now has a clean district that he still does not live in.  It is a coastal district that runs smoothly from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter.
LEAN D

That's all for now.  In a nutshell, fair redistricting would grant Democrats some seats, but nothing substantial.  It does make a lot of competitive seats, that's for sure.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (9+ / 0-)

    'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

    by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 03, 2011 at 05:15:22 PM PST

  •  Gus Bilirakis (4+ / 0-)

    would be in danger in this map. Northern Pinellas County is even right now but trending Democratic and by adding the coastal part of Pasco County, youd make him vulnerable in 2014 or 2016.

  •  Thanks for the plug-in btw : ) (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, KingofSpades
  •  The last Democrat in the 1st (0+ / 0-)

    was Earl Hutto, not Hutton.

  •  Could you make a 4th Hispanic district in Miami? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    I'm not familiar with Florida, but two 76% Hispanic districts near each other looks suspiciously like pack-and-stack if a fourth district could be drawn.

    Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02

    by fearlessfred14 on Sat Dec 03, 2011 at 07:19:24 PM PST

    •  Maybe (0+ / 0-)

      Perhaps FL-16 becomes a Hispanic-majority seat instead of just a convenient waste of space as it is here.

      'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

      by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 03, 2011 at 07:21:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's hard to make another one (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      What I did in a map was make Wasserman-Schultz's seat around 45% Hispanic by adding Hialeah, just so I could avoid packing.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Sat Dec 03, 2011 at 07:38:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Overall, very balanced (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Zornorph

    I like the number of competitive seats. I do think that the Keys would probably be placed in a seat with Miami-Dade, since it seems to make good sense geographically.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Sat Dec 03, 2011 at 07:36:20 PM PST

  •  I like this map, although I think your ratings (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IllinoyedR

    are overly optimistic for Democrats in that I think basically all Lean R seats are Likely R and all Likely R seats Safe R.

    In terms of PVI, a 50% McCain seat is basically the opposite of a 57% Obama seat, and we never talk about Republicans winning these unless they already have incumbents in place.

    •  Yeah but (0+ / 0-)

      Dems have more cross-party appeal in general due to the nature of the big tent. That's why we hold an R+15 district and the bluest district they hold is D+6 (and it's really more like D+4, skewed due to the home state effect).

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Sun Dec 04, 2011 at 07:36:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's not really true in Florida though. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        IllinoyedR

        If you look at really anything-- Congressional districts, State Senate districts, State House districts-- then we don't really make such inroads in Florida, at least not in the last decade. And to the contrary, D+ districts or EVEN districts are regularly held by Republicans-- Bill Young, Ros-Lehtinen, Webster (and yeah, he replaced Grayson, but the district was Republican before 2006), West (same as for Webster)....

        You have to look at this at a state-by-state level. Can we win a R+8 district in Alabama? Yeah, maybe, although that's increasingly not true anymore. Can we win an R+8 district in Minnesota? No, never. Florida is closer to Minnesota than to Alabama on that measure.

        And Matheson is the last person holding such a lopsided district. If you look past Matheson and the retiring Boren, the most Republican district by a Democrat who can run and win again is Chandler's at R+9.

        And the only other Democrat besides Chandler and Matheson (who is really not generalizable) who can and is willing to run and win in a district that's better than R+6 is Mike Ross, and he'll be out of office by 2016.

        So yeah. Even if you count the South, the winnable range of seats is R+6-D+5 or so. If you discount the South and rural seats the range is more like R+4 to D+4.  

        •  Ross is retiring (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sapelcovits

          I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

          by James Allen on Sun Dec 04, 2011 at 09:04:44 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh, I thought he'd run again and then for Gov in (0+ / 0-)

            2014. That rather consolidates my point though.

            •  I think it hurts your point that (4+ / 0-)

              we just underwent one of the biggest R wave years in history, so this is likely a low point for Democrats holding R+ seats.

              I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

              by James Allen on Sun Dec 04, 2011 at 10:17:04 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yeah, well. Basically all of the R+ (0+ / 0-)

                seats [like R+10] that had been held by Democrats aren't going to go back to our fold though, because they've moved right for the last 50 years, and because the Democratic Party is moving away from the types of people who could win these seats.

                2011 wasn't exactly any better than 2010 for us in these areas.

                •  Honestly I still think its not out of the realm (0+ / 0-)

                  to possibly win seats that are R+10 and below

                  Democrats still are the big tent party,

                  Much of the California Republicans I know from my age demographic (18-30) would actually be considered as Democrats in many of the southern states.

                  Their is a difference between the national party vs the state party. You don't see us purging the conservative democrats left in the legislatures of Mississippi and Alabama.

                  Are their seats that we lost in 2010 that are next to impossible to win (like Gene Taylor's seat) ? yes off course, but that doesn't mean we can't play ball in the other R leaning seats.

            •  McDaniel for Governor! (0+ / 0-)

              Ross is a wimp and a backstabber.  Even Ark Dems are mad at him for his cutting and running.

              'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

              by KingofSpades on Sun Dec 04, 2011 at 10:53:01 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Idk if state-by-state is the right metric (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, lordpet8

          I think suburban-vs-rural is better overall, though there are exceptions even there. PVI is deceptive in the Republicans' favor in traditionally Democratic areas. And even in FL, we held FL-02 (R+6) up until 2010.

          In the rural south, btw, we can win seats much worse than R+6. Hell, we originally won MS-01 (R+14) in a special election. 2008 or no 2008, winning in a special election with presumably decreased black turnout is a feat.

          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Sun Dec 04, 2011 at 09:06:48 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, but we lost FL-2 by like 20 points in (0+ / 0-)

            2010. Even if you give half of that to the terrible climate in 2010, we're not coming back there. And basically all Republican districts in Florida don't have that Dixiecrat tradition that FL-01 and FL-02 have.

            In the rural South we could win seats much worse than R+6. I'm not sure if that is still true. A Bobby Bright vs. Martha Roby rematch would shed a lot of light on that one.

            •  I mean, we lost a lot of 20-year incumbents (0+ / 0-)

              just a month ago. Basically the only data point in our favor is Ortego.

              •  And a lot in the MS State House and Senate (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sapelcovits, lordpet8

                Nickey Browning in a 27% Obama district (who has emphatically stated he will NEVER defect to the GOP) is one example.

                'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

                by KingofSpades on Sun Dec 04, 2011 at 10:51:44 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Oh, and (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sapelcovits

                Eric LaFleur, too.  He was running for an open State Senate seat.

                'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

                by KingofSpades on Sun Dec 04, 2011 at 10:52:13 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Eric LaFleur won in 2007 though. (0+ / 0-)

                  That area probably voted for Landrieu in 2008, too. I'm of the opinion that the South has fundamentally changed in 2010 in electing Democrats to open seats.

                  In 2007 there wasn't even an R running in this seat. He won in 2011 as an incumbent, and might still hang on for 10 or 20 years, but I'm skeptical he would have won as an open seat race in 2011, although Cajun politics are something I'm not really good at understanding.

                  Moreover, I don't really doubt that some Dem incumbents can hang on if they survived 2010. When I said the only datapoint in recent times was Ortego, I meant in getting new Democrats elected. Nickey Browning is a multi-term incumbent.

                  If we already had incumbents in place all over the South, they might not all lose. But that's not the case.

                  •  yes though (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    WisJohn
                    On September 12, 2011, Bayou Buzz issued a report on the top five Louisiana Senate races to watch. The race between LaFleur and Miller was ranked as number 4. The report states that, although LaFleur is the incumbent, his district has become more Republican. The Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority and the GOP victory fund are expected to play big roles

                    It's still great to know he won easily.

                    I'm not too familiar with much about Louisiana politics other than they do love their politicians. There's nice documentary that gave me a little historical analysis of the state. It's called Louisiana Boys
                    http://www.youtube.com/...

            •  Leonard Bembry (D) has a 40% Obama district (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sapelcovits, lordpet8

              right now and won it again 60/40 in 2010.  It ranges from blue dog Wakulla County (where Dems still hold most county positions) to conservative Levy County.  If anyone can win FL-2, it's him.  As FtLaudyDem will tell you, Boyd was doomed by his vote for HCR.

              'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

              by KingofSpades on Sun Dec 04, 2011 at 10:50:47 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Another flaw of PVI (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sapelcovits

            is that it only works well in very close 50/50 presidential races like 2000.

            If you have a landslide race like 1964, you would have R+10 districts still voting democratic

    •  Some of my ratings are for open seat scenarios (0+ / 0-)

      For instance, although Bilirakis' seat is LIKELY R for him, it'll be LEAN R if open.  

      'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

      by KingofSpades on Sun Dec 04, 2011 at 09:41:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I don't see how FL-03 is Lean D (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Obama apparently got a bit less than his share of the national two-party vote (53.6 vs. 52.6) there, in a pretty urban district.  That says "toss-up" to me.  But that's all I'm basing that on.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

    by Xenocrypt on Sun Dec 04, 2011 at 11:17:41 AM PST

    •  Yeah, I guess you're right. (0+ / 0-)

      I'll make it Tossup/Tilt D

      'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

      by KingofSpades on Sun Dec 04, 2011 at 11:21:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Alvin Brown, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      if not for the whole just being elected thing, could probably win there comfortably.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Sun Dec 04, 2011 at 12:10:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  My thoughts exactly. (0+ / 0-)

        He'd be a great candidate down the road.

        'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

        by KingofSpades on Sun Dec 04, 2011 at 12:18:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  It really would depend on who Republicans put up (0+ / 0-)

      Jacksonville is full of very, very conservative Republicans and they would need to win some Democrats to win that seat. A seat like that would be rather close to being like KY-3 and I think a Democrat would be better at building crossover numbers than a Republican.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Sun Dec 04, 2011 at 04:03:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe, but (0+ / 0-)

        Obama got 56.2% of the two-party vote in KY-03:

        http://elect.ky.gov/...

        In other words, he over-performed his national two-party average by 2.6% in KY-03, and under-performed it by 1% in this proposed FL-03.  So there's potentially a fairly significant difference in partisan lean.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

        by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 05, 2011 at 08:35:55 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

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