For the next month, you're gonna hear
a heck of a lot about this place!
As promised, PPP launched their new tracking poll in Iowa on Monday night. It was the only piece of polling on a relatively quiet day on the horse race front, but it is an eagerly anticipated one. And while the toplines are not terribly shocking (Newt Gingrich out in front, followed by a close battle for second between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul), some of the subtext to those numbers is worth watching.
Public Policy Polling. 12/3-5. Likely GOP caucus voters. MoE 4.1% (Oct. results)
Newt Gingrich: 27 (8)
Ron Paul: 18 (10)
Mitt Romney: 16 (22)
Michele Bachmann: 13 (8)
Rick Perry: 9 (9)
Rick Santorum: 6 (5)
Jon Huntsman: 4 (1)
Gary Johnson: 1 (1)
Under the hood, there are some interesting points to examine. For example, while it may not come as a shock, Newt Gingrich's lead is largely owed to a rather comically outsized edge he holds with Iowa teabaggers. As Tom Jensen tweeted earlier today, Newt has locked down 35 percent of the 'bagger vote. Mitt Romney, meanwhile, is sitting on a quite formidable 4 percent with the tea party vote.
Without question, the cracks in the Romney armor are becoming more and more apparent. His favorability with this sample was almost at parity (49/45). Only Perry, Huntsman and the now-departed Herman Cain sported weaker favorability numbers. Also, in a body blow to one of Romney's primary campaign arguments, 33 percent of likely caucus goers think Gingrich will be the most formidable Obama opponent next November. Only 23 percent picked Romney.
Meanwhile, two Republican contenders not named Romney or Gingrich are worth keeping at least one eye on as PPP launches this weekly tracker. One is Ron Paul, who leads easily among non-Republican caucusgoers. Remember, indies and Democrats can participate in the caucuses via same-day registration, and Paul has a double-digit lead with that group. The other is Michele Bachmann, who shows her first upward mobility in a long time, amid the backdrop of much improved favorability with potential caucus attendees (56/35, up from 44/38 in October).
7:13 PM PT: For the truly committed horse race junkie, you can dive into PPP's crosstabs for this poll, all 200+ pages of them!