Since I've drawn just about every Republican gerrymander under the sun, I decided to try a Democratic Pennsylvania. Considering I may be spending my next four years in Lower Merion Township (I'd say about a 40-50% chance I end up in college at a liberal arts college called Haverford in Lower Merion Township), I care deeply about Pennsylvania redistricting.
Anyway, I didn't give any care to what the incumbents would think. I generally kept cities and counties together and drew a map that is a lot cleaner than the current Republican map. The Democrats' ceiling in this map would be 14-4 in a massive wave year.
The one thing I'll say about this map is SWPA could fall apart by 2018 or 2020, but you gerrymander for the decade and not for individual years. Democrats would have a 4-0 for much of the decade in SWPA. If you don't like my SWPA, imagine I conceded a Republican seat and drew 3 safer Democratic seats.
Republicans should thank the lord that the Democrats probably won't have the trifecta for many years in Pennsylvania.
Without further ado, I bring you Pennsylvania.
PA-01 (Brady 58%, Fattah 32%, Schwartz 10%)
Incumbent: Bob Brady (D-Philadelphia)
Stats: Goes from 88% Obama to 82.4% Obama
20.1% Bush, 17.8% Corbett, 16.6% Toomey, 16.4% Ellis, 16.5% Santorum, 11.1% Swann.
Summary: Do I need one? The Fighting First drops all of its DelCo territory.
Rating: Safe D
PA-02 (Fattah 52%, Gerlach 22%, Brady 20%, Meehan 7%)
Incumbent: Chaka Fattah (D-Philadelphia)... and Jim Gerlach (R-West Pikeland Township)
Stats: Goes from 90% Obama to 82.7% Obama
19.5% Bush, 21.8% Corbett, 20.5% Toomey, 19% Ellis, 17.8% Santorum, 12.9% Swann.
Summary: I sent Fattah to Chester County to suck up Republicans from PA-06, and Jim Gerlach's home. Heh, let's just say that I don't think he'd run here.
Rating: Safe D
PA-03 (Kelly 66%, Altmire 33%, Thompson 1%)
Stats: Goes from 49% McCain (slight victory) to 52.5% Obama
48.8% Bush, 55.4% Corbett, 51.2% Toomey, 42.9% Ellis, 41.4% Santorum, 45.3% Swann
Summary: Kelly has a better seat to run for, and wouldn't run here. I'm guessing some Erie Democrat (Kathy Dahlkemper) would probably win this seat, even as it probably will vote narrowly for an R in 2012. This is a pretty ancestrally Democratic seat, and the Beaver County portion was what allowed Jason Altmire to stay in Congress.
Rating: Tilts D in 2012 because it's Western Pennsylvania and an open seat. If Kelly runs here, it's a toss up and maybe it tilts R.
PA-04 (Altmire 48%, Doyle 26%, Critz 12%, Murphy 8%, Shuster 5%)
Incumbent: Jason Altmire (D-McCandless)
Stats: Goes from 55% McCain to 51% Obama.
48.3% Bush, 56.7% Corbett, 51.6% Toomey, 42.3% Ellis, 40.4% Santorum,
Summary: Altmire picks up heavily Democratic parts of Pittsburgh. If any of the SWPA seats in this map have a potential to swing away from Dems quickly, it's this one. However, Altmire would have won by double digits here in 2010, and probably could easily hold this for the decade. I'd trust Altmire over any of the other SWPA Dems here.
Rating: Likely D with Altmire, Leans D when open.
PA-05 (Thompson 45%, Kelly 25%, Altmire 11%, Marino 7%, Critz 6%)
Incumbent: Mike Kelly (R-Butler)
Stats: Goes from 55% McCain to 60.7% McCain
64% Bush, 71.2% Corbett, 67.3% Toomey, 58.6% Ellis, 53.5% Santorum, 57.3% Swann
Summary: While GT Thompson doesn't live here, he would run here against Kelly in a primary. This seat splits their Republican territory pretty nicely, and the winner would get one sweet seat.
Rating: Safe R
PA-06 (Gerlach 66%, Meehan 115%, Pitts 10%, Holden 3%, Schwartz 3%)
Incumbent: Open, but Jim Gerlach (R-West Pikeland Township) would run here.
Stats: Goes from 58% Obama to 60.7% Obama
44.8% Bush, 49.4% Corbett, 43.2% Ellis, 38% Santorum, 30.5% Rendell
Summary: Gerlach picks up the rest of Reading and loses his base to Fattah (lol). He would have lost this seat in 2006 and 2008, no matter what Ryan_in_SEPA says about the primary electorate nominating a far left candidate in a SEPA seat like this.
Rating: Leans/Likely D in 2012 against Gerlach, heavily likely D when open.
PA-07 (Meehan 73%, Pitts 14%, Brady 10%, Gerlach 3%)
Incumbents: Pat Meehan (R-Drexel Hill) and Joe Pitts (D-Kennett Square)
Stats: Goes from 56% Obama to 58.8% Obama.
44.6% Bush, 49.2% Corbett, 46% Toomey, 46.4% Ellis, 39.8% Santorum, 27.9% Swann
Summary: Meehan picks up the rest of Delaware County and Democratic parts of Chester County. Bryan Lentz may have won this seat in 2010, although Meehan still could have won. Nevertheless, moving this to D+6 likely would sink the popular Meehan. Oh, and Pitts lives here but would never, ever run here.
Rating: Leans D with Meehan, Likely D when open.
PA-08 (Fitzpatrick 89%, Schwartz 8%, Brady 4%)
Incumbent: Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown)
Stats: Goes from 54% Obama to 56% Obama.
46.8% Bush, 53% Corbett, 50.9% Toomey, 46% Ellis, 40.1% Santorum, 28.8% Swann
Summary: Well, Bucks County is never split, so I didn't split it. However, I ran Fitzpatrick into heavily blue parts of Northeast Philadelphia. Good luck, Mike.
Rating: Seeing as Fitzpatrick has possibly two of the worst opponents of any vulnerable Republican incumbent in all 435 districts, I'm going to call this a toss up in 2012. However, he may have lost this seat to Patrick Murphy in 2010. Would Murphy consider switching races? If Dems get a good candidate, this leans D instantly.
PA-09 (Shuster 67%, Platts 29%, Critz 4%)
Incumbent: Bill Shhuster (D-Hollidaysburg)
Stats: Stays at 63% McCain.
68.1% Bush, 73.6% Corbett, 69.9% Toomey, 61.2% Ellis, 56.1% Santorum, 59.4% Swann
Summary: None needed.
Rating: Safe R for anyone not named Bill Sali.
PA-10 (Thompson 41%, Holden 24%, Shuster 13%, Platts 10%, Critz 8%)
Incumbent: GT Thompson (R-Bellefonte) and Tom Marino (R-Williamsport) (Not sure if he lives in an R or D precinct of Williamsport).
Stats: Goes from 55% McCain to 51.7% Obama
54.3% Bush, 60% Corbett, 55.7% Toomey, 45.5% Ellis, 43.6% Santorum, 47.9% Swann
Summary: PA-10 moves from NEPA to central Pennsylvania, and sucks out all of the Democratic precincts/Counties in that part of the state. The only precincts it shares with the current PA-10 are the Democratic parts of Williamsport. Anyway, I doubt Thompson would run here, but he might. These counties have historically been very competitive. Oh, and I bet Jay Paterno would want to run here, being a passionate liberal from State College (unlike his brother Scott, who flopped against Holden in 2004), but his dad's scandal probably stuck a giant dagger in that opportunity.
Rating: Toss Up or maybe Tilts R in 2012.
PA-11 (Barletta 70%, Marino 30%)
Incumbent: Lou Barletta (R-Hazelton)
Stats: Goes from 57% Obama to 56% Obama
48.3% Bush, 52.8% Corbett, 49% Toomey, 38.7% ellis, 38.4% Santorum, 33.7% Swann
Summary: This seat could move right over the course of the decade, but Barletta, an extremely poor fundraiser, would almost certainly lose here in 2012. It probably would stay Democratic for the decade.
Rating: Leans D with Barletta, Likely D when open.
PA-12 (Platts 63%, Pitts 37%)
Incumbent: Todd Platts (R-York)
Stats: Goes from 56% McCain to 53% McCain
62% Bush, 68.3% Corbett, 65.1% Toomey, 53.9% Ellis, 53.1% Santorum, 53.7% Swann
Summary: Platts picks up Lancaster. He'd be safe here, but this seat could conceivably elect a Democrat when open.
Rating: Safe R with Platts, very Likely R when open.
PA-13 (Schwartz 75%, Dent 7%, Fitzpatrick 6%, Fattah 6%, Gerlach 4%)
Incumbent: Allyson Schwartz (D-Jenkintown)
Stats: Goes from 59% Obama to 58% Obama
46.5% Bush, 48.5% Corbett, 46.2% Toomey, 45.4% Ellis, 40.3% Santorum, 30.1% Swann
Summary: Schwartz didn't need help, so I took away some Democrats from her. While this seat could conceivably vote for a Republican when open, it's probably going to trend to the left anyway.
Rating: Safe D with Schwartz, very Likely D when open.
PA-14 (Critz 36%, Murphy 32%, Doyle 28%, Shuster 4%)
Incumbents: Mike Doye (D-Forest Hills) and Mark Critz (D-Johnstown)
Stats: Goes from 70% Obama to 54% Obama
44.5% Bush, 54% Corbett, 48.2% Toomey, 37% Ellis, 35.4% Santorum, 40.8% Swann
Summary: This seat combines Mark Critz and Mike Doyle. I guess we would see Critz's true in this seat's primary, as he and Doyle would probably try to out-pander each other to labor. Needless to say, this seat is heavily ancestrally Democratic, and I don't see an R winning it any time soon, although it is certainly trending our way. I think Critz should be fine as an incumbent for a decade, though. He fits this seat well.
PA-15 (Dent 91%, Barletta 7%, Marino 2%)
Incumbent: Charlie Dent (R-Allentown)
Stats: Goes from 56% Obama to 57% Obama
48.6% Bush, 54.1% Corbett, 51.9% Toomey (Uh oh, Toomey represented this seat in Congress), 44.3% Ellis, 41.7% Santorum, 36.3% Swann
Summary: The Lehigh Valley stays intact, and Dent drops his blood red MontCo precincts and picks up some deep blue Carbon County precincts.
Rating: Toss Up or Tilt R in 2012 with Dent, and probably Leans D when open. I think Dent would lose in a wave election, but Lehigh Valley Democrats seem abhorrent at picking the right candidates to take down Dent.
PA-16 (Pitts 39%, Holen 36%, Marino 23%, Thompson 2%)
Stats: Goes from 51% McCain to 61.5% McCain
70% Bush, 75% Corbett, 71.6% Toomey, 62.3% Ellis, 61.6% Santorum, 63.2% Swann
Summary: This is the eastern Pennsylvania Republican vote sink. I'm guessing Pitts would run here and probably would win the primary against Marino
Rating: Safe R
PA-17 (Holden 33%, Marino 31%, Barletta 20%, Gerlach 10%)
Incumbent: Tim Holden (D-St. Clair)
Stats: Goes from 51% McCain to 54% McCain
59.5% Bush, 65.8% Corbett, 61.9% Toomey, 51.5% Ellis, 50.7% Santorum, 47.6% Swann
Summary: This seat is the perfect example of a seat where the current member will likely be the last of their party to ever hold that seat. When we went after Holden in 2001, it... backfired. Seeing as there are probably temples dedicated to Holden with giant golden statues of Holden in god-like poses in Schuylkill County, I don't think Holden loses this seat in most years. (I say this because he generally wins ~75% of the vote in a Repubilcan leaning county where he was sheriff). It would almost certainly vote for a Republican when open, but Holden has proven his stripes. However, Marino could make this seat very, very interesting if he runs here...
Holden could lose here, as it is a lot of new territory, but if I wanted to draw a safe D seat with Scranton and Wilkes Barre in it, I had to draw this seat.
Rating: Leans/Likely D with Holden, Likely R when open.
PA-18 (Murpy 52%, Doyle 29%, Critz 20%)
Incumbent: Tim Murphy (R-Upper St. Clair)
Stats: Goes from 55% McCain to 53% Obama
46.1% Bush, 54.4% Corbett, 49.4% Toomey, 40% Ellis, 37.9% Santorum, 43.6% Swann.
Summary: Murphy's seat becomes quite nice looking, but picks up the western half of Pittsburgh. Needless to say, he's probably doomed. However, if any Republican can win this seat, it's the union pandering, fiscally moderate Murphy.
Rating: Leans D with Murphy, probably Safe D (for now, as western PA is trending Republican quickly) when open.