ORC for CNN and TIME (PDF). Republicans. 11/29-12/6. (Trend: 10/20-25)
(Note: Herman Cain supporters allocated to their second-choice picks.)
The most interesting numbers in this chart in New Hampshire, where Newt Gingrich has shrunk Mitt Romney's lead from 28 points (over Ron Paul) in October to 9 points today. Part of that is from Romney's fall (down 5) but mostly it's from Gingrich's rise (up 21). To put this in some perspective, in December, 2007 Mitt Romney led John McCain by an average of 13 points—and he lost. It goes without saying that if Mitt Romney doesn't win New Hampshire, his campaign will be mortally wounded. And if he doesn't win Iowa or at least have a better-than-expected showing there, he'll need to win New Hampshire convincingly. Nine points wouldn't be a convincing win.
Gingrich obviously has reason to be thrilled outside of New Hampshire as well. He's leading each of the three other early states: up 23 in Iowa, 25 in South Carolina, and 39 in Florida. Romney hasn't collapsed, but the air is definitely leaking: he is down 7 in Iowa where a third-place finish is becoming increasingly likely and he's down 5 in both South Carolina and Florida.
Arguably the best news for Romney is that while Republican voters are getting more committed to their decisions than they were in October, most of them are still willing to change their minds. The challenge for him is that they never seem to change their mind in his favor, so perhaps the best he can hope for is that they change their mind from supporting Newt Gingrich ... and end up backing somebody else.