Just like 1992, 2012 election cycle is being dubbed "Year of the Woman". With high recruited female candidates for the senate next year such as Elizabeth Warren, Shelly Berkley, Tammy Baldwin are the type of fresh blood we need in the senate. So I title title this "The Year of the Woman & Beyond". Not just analyzing the '12 race with top tier female challenger, but foreseeing the future a bit and matching up incumbents in '14 & '16 with top tier female challengers. The ones in '14 & 16 are all hypotheticals! We don't even know who the candidates will be. Some we can see as potential prospects/recruits. We can't predict the future, but it doesn't hurt to have some fun.
So let's get started with the ones in '12
'12 Cycle
Hawaii: Mazie Hirono (D-Honolulu) v. Linda Lingle (R-Maui)
This most likely will be the only all female match up in the 2012 election. Mazie Hirono was the obvious choice for Democrats when Daniel Akaka announce his retirement earlier this year. Also it's glad to know that Sen. Patty Murray, the chair of the DSCC is throwing her full backing behind her. Let's hope that Ed Case gets the picture (I doubt he will). The Republicans got the person they wanted former Gov. Linda Lingle. Even though she looks formidable I don't think she will win with Hawaii's native son on top of the ticket. Most likely Hirono will be the next senator, and first female elected from Hawaii.
Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren (D-Cambridge) v. Scott Brown (R-Wrentham)
This most likely is going to the top 5 most watched race this year in the senate. Brown's upset victory nearly two years ago in January of 2010, is like the classic childhood story of the tortoise & the hare. Brown wasn't supposed to have a snowball's chance in hell. If Coakley just campaigned like she really wanted to be a senator she would have won. We all know the gaffes she made in horror in hence cost the Dems a safe seat. Albeit I think Martha Coakley has learned from this experience, and I believe she does has a future. She's apart of the handful of hard hitting AG's such as Schneiderman in New York, Biden in Delaware, and Cortez-Masto in Nevada, that are taking on the big banks in the foreclosure crises. Even though John Kerry is running for re-election in '14, Hillary Clinton has stated that she wants to do one term at the State Dept. Kerry would be a favorite, and maybe Coakley would be appointed. She does have name rec, and has been re-elected as AG. All that being said Elizabeth is the exact canidate who WILL! win this seat back and bring some must needed change in that institution we called the United States Senate. She's the only candidate who is capable to win this seat back, and put it in the blue collum.
Nevada: Shelly Berkley (D-Las Vegas) v. Dean Heller (R-Reno)
Another prime race is going to be out in the Desert between Brekley and Heller. The West is going to be a big role for Obama's re-election. At first I thought that Berkley wasn't the best choice for Dems to recruit. I actually believed the Attorney General of Nevada Catherine Cortez-Masto was a better candidate. Berkley has proven me wrong, and she can very well defeat Heller next fall. Just like in '08 I believe Obama will win the silver state while carrying Berkley cross the finish line with him.
Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison) v. Mark Neumann (R-Nashotah)
In my senate race previews some folks think I'm a little too optimistic, or bullish on Wisconsin. I don't see Thompson being a 71 year old first term junior senator from the Dairyland. Go to the wiki page on this race, Thompson is going to have a very tough time getting out of the primary. Even if you look at the general polling between Baldwin and him, Baldwin is right up in his face. I expect Neumann who is very wealthy to just blitz Thompson and Fitzgerald with his money in the primary. Also you have too take in to a account the very much expected recalls of Gov. Walker. Ever since his anti-union legislation pass it's been a horrible year for the Wisconsin GOP. Wisconsin Dems are more than half way in getting the signatures to force a recall of Walker. If Walker goes down expect it to have major implications in this race, and just like I said in my review for Wisconsin expect the GOP candidates to run away from Walker like he has the plague. Obama is so far polling strong in Wisconsin, and it will have a role in this race. Dems will have to fight to keep Herb Kohl seat blue, and I believe Baldwin will be able to hold this seat for the Dems.
'14 Cycle
Michigan: Grethchen Whitmer (D-Lansing) v. Mike Rogers (R-Howell)
Carl Levin could very well retire in 2014. I kind of had to brainstorm possible GOP candidates for this seat. Their strongest choices are from the House of Representatives. Three of them are chairman of very important comitees. Rogers is the Chairman of the Intelligence Com. Dave Camp is the is the Ways & Means Chair, and Upton is the Chair on Energy/Commerce. Out of those three I thought Rogers would be the better pick for the GOP. On the Dem side I chose the Senate Minority leader in the state senate Gretchen Whitmer. If Levin does retire which is a high possibility, these two could very well be the possible match up for that seat. Whitmer is term limited in '14, it's very possible she gives it a go. Both Whitmer & Rogers beyond their constituents are not well known, so they have low name rec to start out with. Once the election rolls near they will be very well known. Another possibility if it's not Whitmer is Rep. Gary Peters, but that's only if he can survive redistricting. It will be nice though to have a female alongside Debbie Stabenow representing Michigan in the US Senate.
New Jersey: Barbara Buono (D-Metuchen) v. Tom Kean Jr (R-Westfield)
In this diary I wrote about these two being the very possible nominees in replacing Frank Luatenberg who will very likely retire after the '12 election cycle is over. Barbara Buono is the highest ranking female in New Jersey for the Democrats. She the out going Senate Majority leader, who some have speculate she could run for Governor. If it looks like Christie might have a somewhat easy re-election she could definitely look to Washington instead. Plus the Democrat establishment in NJ are not really fond of her, so if she leaves Trenton it will be no problem for them, as long that she's out of their hair. Trenton is their bread & butter. Lord knows New Jersey needs a female in it's congressional delegation, and she will be a good choice. Andrews rubbed alot of people the wrong way for what he did in '08 so he could be a choice, but Menendez is a boss in NJ politics, and is the reason why the Dems have full control of the Senate & House. He could definitely give Buono the green light to make a senate run spurning Andrews. Kean would be the strongest choice for the GOP. Son of the popular Governor from the 80's Kean Sr. he ran in '06 against Menendez, who towards the end got mopped up by the junior senator.
Texas: Wendy Davis (D-Fort Worth) v. John Cornyn (R-Austin)
We all know that Democrats in Texas will find there footing again. Texas will most likely be competitive, if not in this upcoming cycle it can flip in '16 since Jimmy Carter in '76. If there's one candidate that can take us to the promise land in Texas is state Sen. Wendy Davis from Tarrant County. It's no wonder why Republicans tried to end her career prematurely, as they see her as a political threat as a potential state wide candidate. Good thing the Texas GOP got greedy in redistricting, where the courts had to step in, and draw a much fairer map. She still has a competitive district, but one she could win in. If shes able hold on to her state senate seat, she could most likely could take on "Big John" Cornyn. What she did at the end of the session in the Texas legislature, you'll see she has a lot of potential.
'16 Cycle
Florida: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fort Lauderdale) v. Marco Rubio (R-Miami)
This could very well be a likely showdown in Florida in 2016. Two very well known politicians from South Florida. Debbie Wasserman Schultz from Broward County, and Marco Rubio from Dade County. Whenever there's a Cuban Republican from Dade county on a statewide ballot in Florida, they barely carry Dade county. For instance the Betty Castor & Mel Martinez race to replace Bob Graham in '04, even though Martinez is from Orange County (Orlando) he won Dade County by less than one percent. Even though Betty Castor carried her home county Hillsborough (Tampa), Martinez win in Dade as small as it was, was enough to flip that seat. The race in "10 if you added Charlie Crist votes with Kendrick Meek, he would crush in Dade, as well as won the senate seat. The reason why I bring Dade county up is that as more non-Cuban Hispanics move to Dade County, along with the Afro-Carribeans/West Indies whether they're coming overseas. Whether it's Central, South America, and the Carribean, or within the US mostly the New York City Tri-State area, the Cuban vote specifically older Cubans, will be significantly diluted. It's going to be a presidential year in '16, so Rubio won't able to count on the fortunes he enjoyed last year. I believe DWS will run for this seat when it's up, and will be a serious threat to Rubio. As much as national GOP drool at the thought of him, his polls numbers suggest he doesn't walk on water. FFT for those who don't think Florida hasn't elected a Jewish-American senator, Richard Stone (1975-1980) served for one term. so if DWS hopefully runs, and win she won't be the first Jew or Women to rep. Florida in the Senate.
Illinois: Lisa Madigan (D-Chicago) v. Mark Kirk (R-Highland Park)
Illinois Democrats were very disappointed back in '09 when popular AG Lisa Madigan decided not to run along with Jan Schakowsky. The reason why Schakowsky didn't run was because of her husband business dealings that would have been brought up in the race. The Blagojavich scandal was really a burden on Democrats only because Alexi Giannoulious also had his own personal baggage, with his dad's family bank given out loans to well known Chicago mobsters, and the bank eventually close down. Dispite that Kirk also had his own baggage with embellishing his military record. I can't tell you how disappointed I was on election night last year, when it look like we were going to hold on to Illinois & Pennslyvania w/ Sestak. Even though IL Dems had scandals last year they held on to the state legislature, and despite Giannoulious baggage, Kirk was able to sneak through, which tells you Illinois is still the bluest state in the Midwest. Giannoulious is still young and has a bright future, but it was a damn shame he couldn't hang on. Hopefully Madigan will have a change of heart, and run for a seat that she's able to win in a Presidential year. Like Rubio, Kirk can't count on the same fortune he had in '10, most likely he will be the most vulnerable Republican up for reelection that year. If not, Madigan who would probably make for a run Gov. in '14, then can you say Michele Obama? Who had political ambitions before getting marry to Pres. Barack Obama. She will crush Kirk like you can't believe that he will probably call it a one and done.
Kentucky: Alison Lundergan Grimes (D-Lexington) v. Rand Paul (R-Bowling Green)
Allison Lundergan Grimes a seen as a bright star for the Democrats in Kentucky, and the have reasons to do so. She going to be the incoming Secretary of State in Kentucky. She ran up the score when got elected as SoS, and most likely will be reelecting in four years. Kentucky Democrats like Missouri focus their time on statewide races, and it pays dividends. Having a strong bench gives opportunities to win in statewide races whether for Governor or Senate. She's very likable, obviously very gorgeous, and has a great way in getting out message when she indulges with people. I think she will be a great opponent against Rand Paul.
North Carolina: Janet Cowell (D-Raleigh) v. Richard Burr (R-Winston-Salem)
2010 in general Republicans were lucky. GOP'ers like Burr who was seen as vulnable was save because of the political climate last year. Seat that were GOP held that were seen as likely to flip Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania (pre-Specter switch) did not. Seats that were expected to be safe Dem hold Illinois, Wisconsin, Massachusetts (pre-Coakley debacle) were all of a sudden competitive. Burr who once thought as vulnarable was able to cruise to re-election. Gaffes he had like the ATM call to his wife didn't gain any traction. Here's the thing alot of those senators like Burr who I believe were lucky in '10 Ron Johnson, Kirk, Rubio, Blunt, Toomey won't be so in '16, and will surely have very though opponents. One though rival for Burr could be the state treasurer for North Carolina Janet Cowell. I'm not really familiar with her only in the since that she was a state senator before running for state tres. in '08. Most likely she'll win re-election, and can take on Burr which will be seen as a prime race in the '16 cycle.
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D-Jenkintown) v. Pat Toomey (R-Zionsville)
Joe Sestak gave Toomey a fight last year, and he could expect another one '16. I think if Sestak went up earlier in the summer with ads instead of the begining of September he could have pull the upset of the night last year. The upcoming redistricting process will play a major role in who will be the Democratic nominee to take on Toomey in '16. Pennsylvania Republicans learned their lesson from 10 years ago when they tried to screw over Rep. Tim Holden in redistricting. That blew up right in there face, Holden was able to beat GOP Rep. George Gekas in the district that was drawn more favorably for the Republican. PA GOP'ers see Rep. Allyson Schwartz from suburban Philly as a threat for a state wide office, but trying to give her the shaft in SEPA you also endanger GOP'ers like Pat Mehan or Mike Fitzpatrick, so instead they're backing off which is good for us. They have good reason to be scared, cause she's the type of candidate who could beat Pat Toomey. They're setting there sights in Western PA with Critz & Altmire trying to draw them together. Very likely they will shoot themselves in the face again because Critz & Altimire are the type of Dems that could win in those Reagan Democrats district out there in Western PA. Instead of challenging Critz, Altmire can definitely win a nearby district held by a Republican. Lets hope those two stay in the house. There Blue Dogs who are just in name only, and there are Blue Dogs who are just scum. The only candidates from PA who could take on Toomey from PA delegation is Allyson Schwartz, if not her Mike Doyle from Pittsburgh. I think Allyson Schwartz as well as Joe Sestak will have bright futures. It will be great see Schwartz running for Senate, and Sestak for Governor. Pennsylvania has never elected a woman senator so let's hope Schwartz is the first. Another woman to look out for is Kathleen Kane from Scranton, who is running against former Rep. Pat Murphy in the Dem primary for AG. If she win the primary as well as the general, she could be a good option.
Rising Stars
Arizona: Gabby Giffords
Were all praying for Gabby Giffords to get well, she's a dear voice that is needed in today's political climate. If the unfortunate assassination attempt never, there were reports that she was anticipating a campaign for senate, and could have flip that seat for the Dems. The most important thing for her is to get, so she can be in the right mentally, and physically sound just to able to serve, let alone run for higher office. Our best wishes are to her in her recovery. If Gabby is not able to serve in congress, then a another woman from Arizona that could be a future choice is former Gov. and current HLS Sec. Janet Napolitano.
California: Loretta Sanchez & Judy Chu
These two could very well replace Dianne Feinstein, and Barbara Boxer when they call it a career. If they do becomes senators,they would be the first two ethnic minorities to represent California in the US Senate. With the significant Hispanic presence in California, it's very plausible to see Sanchez as a future US Senator. Judy Chu represent a very Hispanic heavy district, and has endeared herself to issues important to the Hispanic community. She who could get overwhelming support from the community. Keep in mind though that Gavin Newsom former San Fran mayor, now Lt. Gov may have Washington ambitions. Though I think most likely he might wait til Jerry Brown is term limited and run for Governor.
Florida: Kathy Castor & Pam Iorio
Castor & Iorio I believe are rising stars in the Sunshine State. Both women are very well known in the Tampa Bay area. Castor represents Tampa in the US House of Representative, and Pam Iorio was the former mayor of Tampa. Castor was elected to house in '06, a year after her mom Betty Castor very narrow lost for the US Senate seat in Florida in '04. Kathy could most likely thank her mom for her career in politics. Betty Castor was a former state legislature back in the day representing Tampa. She served as the State Senate President, and was elected to a statewide office as Education Commissioner under Gov. Martinez & Chiles administrations. She later became president at USF. The Castor name is embedded in Tampa. I believe Kathy could be a good choice for senate in '18 if Bill Nelson decides three terms is enough, I believe Bill Nelson will win another term next fall, he is the definition of a seasoned politician, and will be difficult to beat. I really would like her, and DWS to be representing Florida in the US Senate. Pam Iorio is the obvious choice for Fla Dems to take on Rick Scott for Governor in '14. She was a very popular mayor in Tampa with a 80 percent plus approval when she left office. Her going around the state on her book tour, shows that she is trying to build name rec. outside of Tampa Bay gearing up for 2014. She a much better choice than Alex Sink who had her chance and blew it. It's most likely that Iorio could be the first female governor of Florida.
Hawaii: Colleen Hanabusa
Daniel Inouye is surley going to retire in '16. I can't possibly see him running for another term. His successor will most likely be Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, and it's almost certain that Hawaii will have two female senator within this decade.
Maryland: Donna Edwards
I believe she'll survive redistricting even though most of her base in Montgomery County is gone. Barbara Mikulski may call it quits in '16. Look for Edwards to put her hat in the ring to replace her.
Minnesota: Betty McCollum & Lori Swanson
I'm not sure if Al Franken is running again or not. He hasn't been definitive, but in case he doesn't seek re-election Rep. McCollum and Attorney General Lori Swanson are two viable nominees.
Missouri: Susan Montee
Susan Montee has already held statewide office before in being the state auditor. She's currently the chairwoman of the Missouri Democratic Party, and running for Lt. Gov. If she's able to beat off the current Lt. Gov Peter Kinder she will be a great choice to take on Roy Blunt in '16.
Nevada: Catherine Cortez-Masto
She a hard hitting AG who Dems will court if Harry Reid decides to hang up his boots.
It's a good chance she'll succeed if she the Democratic nominee in Hispanic heavy Nevada. She'll be the first Latina in the US Senate
New York: Kathy Hochul & Yvette Clarke
I doubt Chuck Schumer will retire in '16 unless Andrew Cuomo runs for president, and Schumer has Albany intentions. If for some reason Schumer has other intentions that doesn't involves the US Senate then I think two rising stars in New York delegation who can serve along side Kirsten Gillibrand, are either Kathy Hochul, or Yvette Clarke. Usually New York always has a senator from downstate from NYC, or the surrounding area. So it will be the first in a while two have two Upstaters representing NY in the senate at the same time. Clarke is a very ambitious congresswoman from Brooklyn. My old neighborhood in Brooklyn is in her district so I'm very familiar with her. She was considered as a replacement when Hilary Clinton was nominated for Sec. of State. She's the only African-American Woman in NY delegation, along with Donna Edwards in being the only two AA Women in the entire Northeastern delegation in the house.
Ohio: Betty Sutton
If she can survive redistricting and is able to be reelected two more times, she will be a excellent choice to take on Rob Portman.
Rhode Island: Elizabeth Roberts
If there's the possibility of Jack Reed retiring then Elizabeth Roberts is the obvious choice for replacing Jack Reed. She's the two term Lt. Gov and will probably be Democrats prefered choice.