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So, first of all, I was screwed up on my math for Doubling the House. In my last diary, I did a theoretical diary with New Mexico's delegation under Doubling, with 5 districts. But my math was wrong, I only had 5, it should have 6. So I'll get that out of the way and then get to the new states, Delaware and Vermont.

New Mexico redux
New Mexico gets 6 districts.

1 (Blue)
VAP: 49.4 White, 40.3 Hispanic
61.8 Obama, 56.3 Average Dem

Inner Albuquerque. Good district for Eric Griego. Safe D

3 (Purple)
VAP: 44.3 W, 46.4 H
56.8 O, 50.2 Dem

Parts of Rio Rancho and outer Albuquerque. Good district for Marty Chavez given his conservaDem tendencies. Tossup/Tilt D

2 (Green)
VAP: 37.4 W, 23.4 H, 36.4 Native
61.4 O, 58.2 Dem

Native opportunity district. Farmington, Santa Fe and all the Native areas in the northwest. Current Rep. Ben R. Luján (D) (probably) lives in this district, but I think he'd rather run in the 4th. Safe D

4 (Red)
VAP: 45.8 W, 47.9 H
63.3 O, 59.1 Dem

Plurality Hispanic (Majority by total population). Northeastern and parts of Rio Rancho. Like I said above, Luján may run here, or Hector Balderas, whose home turf is here, may want to run if his Senate ambitions are cut short. Safe D

5 (Yellow)
VAP: 54.9 W, 39.3 H
37.9 O, 37.3 Dem

Hobbs, Roswell and Almogordo. Steve Pearce (R) lives here, and he'd like this district. Safe R

6 (Teal)
VAP: 39.6 W, 56.1 H
56.2 O, 53.4 Dem

Las Cruces into suburban Albuquerque.Safe D

I think this creates a pretty stable or 4-1-1.

Delaware gets 3 districts

1 (Blue)
62.3 W, 24.5 Black, 8.3 H
71.4 Obama

Wilmington. Rep. John Carney lives here. Safe D

2 (Green)
72.5 W, 16.3 B, 5.5 H
59.5 Obama

Newark all the way down to Seaford. Safe D

3 (Purple)
72.1 W, 17.7 B, 6.2 H
53.6 Obama

Dover and Milford. Lean or Likely D

Pretty stable 3-0

Vermont gets two districts. Both districts are 90+% white VAP.

1 (Blue)
69.5 Obama

Burlington and Montpelier. A decent Progressive candidate might even have a chance here. Safe D or equivalent

2 (Green)
66 Obama

Rutland, Bennington, Battleboro, etc. Rep. Peter Welch (D) lives here. Safe D

Strong 2-0

So so far in my series, we have a House delegation of 9-5-1. Next I'll throw up a bevy of small states probably.

Originally posted to HoosierD42 on Fri Dec 09, 2011 at 12:43 PM PST.

Also republished by These Green Mountains.


Would my NM-3 elect a Democrat?

53%16 votes
3%1 votes
43%13 votes

| 30 votes | Vote | Results

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